Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Tuesday, 25 September 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,200.9 (-1.0%) Turnover: IDR3.5t (-11.1%) Foreign net buy :IDR235b (net sell: IDR148b) TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS Govt conducts Indonesia Investment Day in New York INDUSTRY Palm oil drops to 2-year low on rising stocks, weak US soy CORPORATE BUMI Plc plans to investigate its Indonesian operation ASII will pay out IDR2.67t interim dividends S&P affirms Telkomsel 'BBB-' rating with stable outlook Gudang Garam to build a new subsidiary JSMR socializing the increasing of Jakarta Cikampek toll road AALI 8M12 CPO production increased 10% y-y Garuda to expand flight routes in Eurozone to Russia in 2014 ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11A 12F 13F 11A 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) 0.4 (0.1) 1.0 Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (1.3) (2.5) (1.5) Op.prof.gwt. exc. Coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (% EPS gwt exc. Coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. Coal (x) Total imports (%y-y PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. Coal (x) IDR/USD 9,075 9,450 9,250 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 20,694.7 (0.2) IDX (Indonesia) 4,200.9 (1.0) KLCI (Malaysia) 1,612.4 (0.7) KOSPI (Korea) 2, Nikkei (Japan) 9,069.3 (0.4) PCOMP (Phil.) 5, SENSEX (India) 18,673.3 (0.4) SET (Thailand) 1,284.3 (0.2) SHCOMP (China) 2, (7.6) (16.4) Shenzhen (China) (3.0) (20.7) STI (Singapore) 3,067.9 (0.3) TWSE (Taiwan) 7, VNI (Vietnam) (1.3) 11.0 (11.3) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,497.2 (0.9) DAX (Germany) 7,413.2 (0.5) Dow Jones (USA) 13,558.9 (0.2) FTSE 100 (UK) 5,838.8 (0.2) IBOV (Brazil) 61, NASDAQ (USA) 3,160.8 (0.6) RTSI (Russia) 1, S&P 500 (USA) 1,456.9 (0.2) ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 9,289 (0.1) IIT US (IDR) 5, (11.5) (6.9) BUMI LN (IDR) 22,922 (24.7) (83.2) (83.7) Coal (USD/t) 90 (1.1) (20.3) (27.6) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 3, (18.6) (26.6) Copper (USD/t) 8,176 (1.2) Cotton (USD/t) 1,566 (1.4) (22.6) (29.0) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 895 (8.0) (13.9) (12.7) DOC (IDR/kg) 3, (33.3) 25.0 Gold (USD/oz.) 1, Iron ore (USD/mtn) 104 (2.5) (25.1) (40.4) Milk (USD/t) Nickel (USD/t) 17,930 (1.1) (4.2) (1.8) Oil (USD/barrel) 92 (0.9) (6.9) 15.2 Pulp (USD/t)* 764 (2.5) (8.4) (20.5) Rice (IDR/kg) 8,200 (1.2) Rubber (USD/t) 2,847 (0.9) (12.9) (35.1) Soybean oil (USD/t) 1,184 (0.1) Steel (USD/t) 569 (1.1) (14.8) (23.7) Sugar (USD/t) Tins (USD/t) 20,750 (0.4) Wheat (USD/t) 326 (0.6) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD (2.1) (6.5) USD/EUR IDR/USD 9,571 9, JPY/USD (1.8) SGD/USD JIBOR (%) (0.5) (1.2) BI rate (%) (0.3) (1.0) TD 1 month (%) (0.9) (1.2) CDS (bps) (27.9) (51.0) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 BOURSE Govt conducts Indonesia Investment Day in New York To boost foreign investments ahead particularly from United States (US), the government is conducting Indonesia Investment Day in New York on September. The government also will arrange one-on-one meetings for 15 domestic companies with several large US companies. Note that Indonesian companies that will take a part in this rare event comprised of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Semen Gresik (SMGR), Jasa Marga (JSMR), Bukit Asam (PTBA), Aneka Tambang (ANTM), Garuda Indonesia (GIAA), Krakatau Steel (KRAS), Telkom (TLKM), Pertamina (unlisted), Astra International (ASII), Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and Lippo Karawaci (LPKR). Meanwhile, several US companies that will join the meeting include Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Dow Chemical Company, ACE Group, Goldman Sachs, Cargill, General Electric and Boeing. We note that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono himself opened the event yesterday. (Investor Daily, Kontan) INDUSTRY Palm oil drops to 2-year low on rising stocks, weak US soy Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled on Monday to their lowest in two years, hurt by rising inventories and steep losses in U.S. soybeans on expectations of higher output. Bearish views by industry analysts on high CPO inventory and lower than expected demand at a vegetable oil conference in India also weighed on palm oil prices. Bahana: There are many different views on the conference. We note that CPO price has dthe propensity to reach its bottom in September-October, as inventories reaches its highest level around this period. (Reuters) CORPORATE BUMI Plc plans to investigate its Indonesian operation BUMI Plc stated in its announcement that it has become aware of allegations concerning, among other matters, potential financial and other irregularities in the company's Indonesian operations, especially in relation to Bumi Resources (BUMI-REDUCE-IDR680-TP:IDR500), in which the company has approximately a 29 per cent interest. Hence, an independent investigation has been commissioned to investigate the allegations on an urgent basis, and is to report to the Board. BUMI Plc also intends to contact relevant authorities in the UK and Indonesia, as appropriate, in respect of some of the allegations. An area of focus of the investigation will be the development funds of PT Bumi Resources Tbk. In addition, Bumi plc announces that Ari Hudaya, a Non-Executive Director of the Company, has resigned from the Board of the company with immediate effect. (Bumi Plc announcement) ASII to pay IDR2.67t interim dividends Astra International (ASII-BUY-IDR7,350-TP:IDR8,350) will pay IDR2.67t interim dividends in November The IDR66 dividend per share which will be distributed on 7 November 2012 represents 0.9% dividend yield. (Investor Daily) S&P affirms Telkomsel 'BBB-' rating with stable outlook S&P has cut Telkomsel s long-term corporate credit rating from BBB to BBB-. This reduction refers to the Central Jakarta District Court declaring the company bankrupt based on a petition by Prima Jaya Informatika. S&P still has a stable outlook for Telkomsel, supported by strong 2Q12 financial performance. (Reuters) Gudang Garam to build a new subsidiary Gudang Garam (GGRM-Under Review-IDR46,600-TP:Under Review) to build a new subsidiary, Surya Inti Tembakau worth IDR149b to strengthen their core business. Surya Inti Tembakau operates in tobacco processing. (Indonesia Finance Today) JSMR socializing higher Jakarta Cikampek toll road tariff Jasa Marga (JSMR-BUY-IDR5,750-TP:IDR7,000) starts to socialize higher Jakarta Cikampek toll road tariff that will begin in the end of September The toll road tariff will increase 10%. (Kompas) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 AALI 8M12 CPO production increased 10% y-y Astra Agro Lestari (AALI-BUY-IDR22,750-TP:IDR26,500) FFB production for 8M12 reached 3.4m tons, up 11% y-y. Its 8M12 yield also increased from 14.0 to Meanwhile CPO production increased to around 887k tons, up 10% y-y. Bahana: This 8M12 production result is in line with our expectation as we expect production growth of 10% y-y in 2012 and 8% y-y in We maintain our BUY recommendation on this counter with IDR26,500 target price. (Company) Garuda to expand flight routes to Russia in 2014 Garuda Indonesia (GIAA-BUY-IDR620-TP:IDR900) to expand flight routes to Russia by using new Boeing B ER aircraft in GIAA will take the first delivery of 10 Boeing B ER aircraft in June Additionally, GIAA would like to expand flight routes to London and Frankfurt as and when the European crisis recovers. (Bisnis Indonesia) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 9/24/2012 9/21/2012 CHANGE (%) Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1, , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,250 1, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,060 1, Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,100 1, Bank Jatim BJTM BUY Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,640 1, Wintermar WINS BUY Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP BUY 1, ,300 1, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 9, ,000 7, Surya Citra Media SCMA REDUCE 9,550 (8.6) 10,450 10, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 29,750 (29.5) 42,200 42, Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,250 7, Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN * * * 1,370 1, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 3,800 (70.5) 12,900 12, Bukit Asam PTBA HOLD 13,100 (19.4) 16,250 16, Cardig Aero Service CASS HOLD 770 (4.9) Charoem Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN HOLD 2, ,875 2, Ciputra Development CTRA BUY Erajaya Swasembada ERAA BUY 2, ,000 2, Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY Indocement INTP HOLD 20,000 (1.7) 20,350 20, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,750 5, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 5, ,700 3, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 6, ,200 5, Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL UR Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 4, ,150 4, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,030 1, Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 20, ,900 19, Medco Energi International MEDC * * * 1,720 1,730 (0.6) Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 9, ,900 7,950 (0.6) Astra International ASII BUY 8, ,350 7,400 (0.7) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 16, ,150 14,250 (0.7) Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 6, ,100 6,150 (0.8) Indomobil Sukses International IMAS BUY 7, ,700 5,750 (0.9) Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (15.1) 5,300 5,350 (0.9) IDX IDX 4,201 4,245 (1.0) Gajah Tunggal GJTL BUY 2, ,250 2,275 (1.1) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 5, ,475 4,525 (1.1) Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 26, ,450 21,700 (1.2) Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 4, ,250 4,300 (1.2) Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 3, ,075 2,100 (1.2) AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 4, ,850 3,900 (1.3) Gudang Garam GGRM UR UR - 46,600 47,250 (1.4) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 7, ,550 6,650 (1.5) Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP HOLD 7, ,350 6,450 (1.6) Telkom Indonesia TLKM * * * 9,250 9,400 (1.6) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY (1.6) Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,400 5,500 (1.8) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,850 3,925 (1.9) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 4,600 (6.1) 4,900 5,000 (2.0) Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 8, ,450 6,600 (2.3) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA HOLD 1,100 (14.7) 1,290 1,320 (2.3) Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY (2.3) Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD (2.4) J Resources Asia pasifik PSAB BUY 8, ,100 4,200 (2.4) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY 1, (2.4) Indika Energy INDY REDUCE 1,250 (21.4) 1,590 1,630 (2.5) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,540 1,580 (2.5) Total Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,825 2,900 (2.6) Sampoerna Agro SGRO HOLD 3, ,750 2,825 (2.7) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 3, ,425 2,500 (3.0) Timah TINS REDUCE 1,200 (22.1) 1,540 1,590 (3.1) Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 25,200 (2.1) 25,750 26,650 (3.4) Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1,100 (17.3) 1,330 1,390 (4.3) United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 18,500 (13.3) 21,350 22,350 (4.5) Adaro Energy ADRO REDUCE 1,120 (24.3) 1,480 1,550 (4.5) Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 5,300 (12.4) 6,050 6,350 (4.7) Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,000 (29.8) 2,850 3,050 (6.6) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID REDUCE 240 (4.0) (7.4) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* Revenue (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) Net gearing (%) Opt. profit (IDRb)* Net profit (IDRb)* PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,091 39,329 2,242 3,106 1,310 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA BUY , , ,023 38,130 1,972 2,806 1,207 1, CASS HOLD , , ,067 1, nc nc AUTO & H.E N 402, , ,357 32,235 37,340 29,053 33, ASII BUY 7,350 8,300 40, , , ,615 19,862 22,312 19,482 22, UNTR REDUCE 21,350 18,500 3, , ,402 78,706 9,552 11,647 7,142 8, nc nc IMAS BUY 5,700 7,300 2, , ,197 28, ,216 1,282 1, GJTL BUY 2,250 2,850 3, , ,799 14,193 1,357 1,567 1,048 1, DOID REDUCE , , ,595 7, (157.7) (2.1) BANKING N 752, , ,215 75,001 86,219 59,470 68, na na na na BBCA BUY 7,900 9,400 24, , ,287 34,814 14,338 16,362 11,766 13, na na na na BMRI BUY 8,000 9,550 23, , ,080 50,026 18,226 21,079 13,686 15, na na na na BBRI BUY 7,250 8,300 24, , ,050 51,862 20,064 22,438 17,044 19, na na na na BBNI BUY 3,850 5,200 18, , ,842 27,553 8,398 9,885 6,869 8, na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,100 6,400 9, , ,168 21,281 6,229 7,318 4,104 4, na na na na BTPN HOLD 4,900 4,600 5, , ,940 7,037 2,413 2,933 1,886 2, na na na na BJBR BUY 1,100 1,320 9, , ,132 4,820 1,566 1,833 1,206 1, na na na na BBTN ** 1,370 ** 8, , ,762 5,531 1,583 1,805 1,193 1, na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,271 2,628 1,173 1, ,064 (6.4) na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,184 3,663 1,012 1, na na na na CEMENT OW 158, ,670 40,750 11,412 13,012 9,058 10, nc nc INTP HOLD 20,350 20,000 3, , ,727 19,088 5,712 6,425 4,470 5, nc nc SMGR BUY 14,150 16,400 5, , ,943 21,662 5,700 6,587 4,588 5, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 35, ,586 36,544 3,503 4,286 1,429 2, TOWR BUY 19,900 20,000 1, , ,061 2,403 1,144 1, WIKA BUY 1,250 1,400 6, , ,669 11, , nc nc PTPP BUY , , ,123 8, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 1,030 1,150 1, , ,811 11, CONSUMER OW 449, , ,532 29,073 32,604 19,599 22, UNVR HOLD 25,750 25,200 7, , ,178 31,378 6,270 7,223 4,743 5, GGRM UR 46,600 UR 1, , ,355 51,881 7,695 8,464 5,544 6, nc INDF BUY 5,400 6,000 8, , ,961 52,882 7,511 8,100 3,484 3, nc nc KLBF BUY 4,250 4,500 10, , ,247 15,408 2,262 2,614 1,735 2, nc nc ICBP HOLD 6,350 7,200 5, , ,649 23,582 3,049 3,385 2,276 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 2,825 3,800 4, , ,796 7, , nc nc MAPI BUY 6,450 8,400 1, , ,568 9, RALS HOLD 1,030 1,375 7, , ,466 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 5,200 6,100 1, , ,124 1, nc MEDIA 20, ,681 3,097 1,433 1,716 1,083 1, nc nc SCMA REDUCE 10,450 9,550 1, , ,681 3,097 1,433 1,716 1,083 1, nc nc MINING UW 272, , ,294 57,104 46,032 34,931 31,872 (9.3) (18.4) ADRO REDUCE 1,480 1,120 31, , ,133 32,216 10,779 8,372 4,932 3,709 (5.6) (26.0) BYAN REDUCE 12,900 3,800 3, , ,383 18,715 6,043 4,712 4,613 3,633 (24.1) (10.3) nc BUMI REDUCE , , ,649 31,934 5,112 4,253 (1,002) 1,153 (148.7) (219.3) (14.5) na 9.8 ITMG REDUCE 42,200 29,750 1, , ,383 18,715 6,043 4,712 5,136 5,560 (10.4) (20.0) nc nc PTBA HOLD 16,250 13,100 2, , ,733 10,944 3,868 2,866 3,293 2, (24.4) nc nc INCO REDUCE 2,850 2,000 9, , ,066 10,447 2,978 3,721 2,104 2,713 (34.1) nc nc HRUM REDUCE 6,050 5,300 2, , ,560 7,941 2,252 1,809 1,570 1, (19.1) nc nc ANTM REDUCE 1,330 1,100 9, , ,353 9,731 1, ,264 1,040 (34.5) (17.7) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,269 62,793 17,498 13,119 10,584 7,517 (37.4) (28.6) INDY REDUCE 1,590 1,250 5, , ,182 6, ,602 1, TINS REDUCE 1,540 1,200 5, , ,636 9,907 1,100 1, (6.9) nc nc OIL & GAS N 121, ,114 58,718 10,414 11,105 8,039 8,664 (2.7) PGAS BUY 4,150 4,600 24, , ,693 29,349 9,321 9,775 7,291 7, nc nc AKRA HOLD 3,850 4,100 3, , ,208 28, , (70.4) nc MEDC ** 1,720 ** 3, , , , (24.8) PLANTATIONS N 85, ,315 47,489 11,238 12,862 7,456 8,565 (1.3) AALI BUY 21,450 26,500 1, , ,365 13,936 3,232 3,709 2,378 2,731 (1.1) nc nc SIMP BUY 1,300 1,650 15, , ,249 15,557 3,402 3,732 1,825 2, LSIP BUY 2,425 3,100 6, , ,999 5,335 2,027 2,184 1,708 1, nc nc SGRO HOLD 2,750 3,300 1, , ,193 3, (18.0) nc nc BWPT BUY 1,540 1,950 4, , ,116 1, UNSP HOLD , , ,741 6,772 1,232 1, (29.0) GZCO HOLD , , POULTRY N 56, ,901 44,074 5,698 6,427 4,278 4, CPIN HOLD 2,875 2,925 16, , ,200 24,051 4,198 4,728 3,414 3, nc nc JPFA BUY 4,475 5,550 2, , ,702 20,023 1,500 1, , PROPERTY OW 95, ,822 36,208 8,528 11,280 6,265 8, BSDE BUY 1,060 1,810 17, , ,375 3,973 1,165 1,403 1,038 1, nc nc LPKR BUY 980 1,110 23, , ,120 6,008 1,224 1, , ASRI BUY , , ,268 3,132 1,194 1,654 1,028 1, nc nc CTRA BUY , , ,038 4, , nc nc SMRA BUY 1,640 2,350 6, , ,036 3, nc nc APLN BUY , , ,453 5,258 1,194 1, SSIA HOLD 1,290 1, , ,329 3, , nc nc CTRP BUY , , , nc KIJA BUY , ,950 2, LPCK BUY 3,700 5,000 3, , ,582 2, nc SHIPPING N 1, ,009 1, WINS BUY , , ,009 1, TELCOS N , , ,551 36,029 38,501 18,699 20, TLKM ** 9,250 ** 20, , ,452 78,704 23,461 24,527 11,906 12, EXCL BUY 6,550 7,200 8, , ,518 21,414 4,796 5,327 3,163 3, ISAT REDUCE 5,300 4,500 5, , ,667 23,028 3,224 3,481 1,168 1, BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2,992 (249) (160) (700) (679) 10.2 (3.0) (3.0) (3.1) (17.6) (20.7) TELE BUY , , ,518 21,414 4,796 5,327 3,163 3,596 (7.9) TINPLATE N ,686 1, nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, nc nc TOLL ROAD N 43, ,584 7,939 3,091 3,754 2,071 2, JSMR BUY 5,750 7,000 6, , ,656 6,943 2,574 3,194 1,683 1, CMNP BUY 2,075 3,000 2, , Market OW 2,787,317 2,558 1,279,389 1,441, , , , , Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 09/24/ :30 TA Unemployment Rate - sa Aug 4.28% 4.29% 4.25% 09/24/ :00 JN Supermarket Sales (YoY) Aug % 09/24/ :10 AS Industrial Production (YoY) Jul % 09/24/ :30 NE GDP s.a. (QOQ) 2Q F 0.20% % 09/24/ :30 NE GDP con n.s.a. (YoY) 2Q F % 09/24/ :30 NE Producer Confidence Sep /24/ :00 GE IFO - Business Climate Sep /24/ :00 GE IFO - Current Assessment Sep /24/ :00 GE IFO - Expectations Sep /24/ :00 TA Commercial Sales (YoY) Aug -0.32% % 09/24/ :00 TA Industrial Production (YoY) Aug -0.90% % 09/24/ :30 HK Bal of Paymts - Overall 2Q $48.16B 09/24/ :00 BZ FGV Consumer Confidence Sep /24/ :00 BZ FGV CPI IPC-S 23-Sep 0.52% % 09/24/ :30 BZ Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey 09/24/ :30 TU Industrial Confidence Sep /24/ :30 TU Capacity Utilization Sep % 09/24/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug /24/ :00 MX Bi-Weekly CPI 15-Sep 0.31% % 09/24/ :30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep /24/2012 VN CPI (YoY) Sep 5.15% % Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan ½ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ FX reserves (USDb) Jan 2/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 1/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference Rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Jan 2/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time AGM Dian Swastatika Sentosa 10/24/ :00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Berlina 2, % 9/27/ /1/ /12/2012 BRNA IJ Sumi Indo Kabel 1, % 10/1/ /3/ /17/2012 IKBI IJ Alumindo Light Metal Indu % 10/2/ /4/ /18/2012 ALMI IJ Catur Sentosa Adiprana % 10/4/ /8/ /18/2012 CSAP IJ Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia 2, % 10/10/ /12/ /29/2012 TKIM IJ Pakuwon Jati % 10/10/ /12/ /25/2012 PWON IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 01/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 01/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 02/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, MBSS 04/06/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 04/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 05/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 05/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 05/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 06/09/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 06/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property TIFA 07/08/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 07/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 07/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 07/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 07/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/08/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 25, PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 05/14/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property WSKA Waskita Karya Construction SEBA Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Citra Borneo Indah Plantation 1, Express Transindo Utama Transportation Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantation Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping Provident Agro Plantation Siba Surya Transportation Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Sumut Banks Cipaganti group Transportation Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation GarudaFood Food & beverage Lion Air Aviation 9, Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment PLN Batam Energy 62 Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Tugu Pratama Insurance total 32,050 Grand total 57,725 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, ASRI 01/25/12 Alam Sutera Realty Property - 28 ATPK 01/27/12 ATPK Resources Coal mining - 29 FREN 02/22/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, APOL 02/23/12 Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Transportation - 31 BSIM 03/15/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail - 33 KIAS 03/16/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, RAJA 05/29/12 Rukun Raharja Energy NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 17,839 Grand total 58,486 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 2Q12 Results Round ups Operating profit Net profit No Company Code (IDRb) (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 1,364 2, In line 959 1, In line 2 Adhi Karya ADHI Below Below 3 Agung Podomoro Land APLN 662 1, Above Above 4 Astra International ASII 9,992 19, In line 9,678 19, In line 5 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 613 1, Below 526 1, Below 6 Bank Central Asia BBCA 6,393 14, In line 5,297 11, In line 7 Bank Bukopin BBKP 517 1, In line In line 8 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 3,927 8, In line 3,286 6, In line 9 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 10,347 20, In line 8,700 17, In line 10 Bank Danamon BDMN 3,085 6, Above 2,003 4, Above 11 Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 807 1, In line 600 1, In line 12 Bank Mandiri BMRI 9,211 18, Above 7,147 13, Above 13 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 567 1, Above 507 1, Above 14 BW Plantation BWPT Below Below 15 Bayan Resources * BYAN Below Below 16 Citra Marga Nusaphala CMNP Above Above 17 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 2,211 4, Above 1,689 3, Above 18 Ciputra Development CTRA Below Below 19 Ciputra Property CTRP Below Below 20 Delta Dunia Makmur DOID Below (321) 97 (324) Below 21 XL Axiata EXCL 2,468 4, Above 1,462 3, Above 22 Gudang Garam GGRM 3,030 7, Below 2,101 5, Below 23 Garuda Indonesia GIAA Above (2) 125 (1.6) Below 24 Gajah Tunggal GJTL 745 1, Above Above 25 Indomobil Sukses International IMAS Below 452 1, Below 26 Vale Indonesia INCO Below Below 27 Indika Energy INDY (507.5) Above Above 28 Indocement Tunggal Perkasa INTP 2,628 5, In line 2,165 4, In line 29 Indosat ISAT 1,448 3, Below (132) 1,168 (11.3) Below 30 Jasa Marga JSMR 1,332 2, In line 925 1, Above 31 Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA Above Above 32 Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,031 2, In line 807 1, In line 34 Lippo Cikarang LPCK Below Below 35 Lippo Karawaci LPKR 600 1, Above Above 36 Bukit Asam PTBA 1,869 3, In line 1,556 3, In line 37 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS In line Above 38 Nippon Indosari Corporindo ROTI In line In line 39 Surya Citra Media SCMA , Below 40 Sampoerna Agro SGRO Below Below 41 Semen Gresik SMGR 2,597 5, In line 2,103 4, In line 42 Summarecon Agung SMRA Above Above 43 Surya Semesta SSIA Above Above 44 Timah TINS 481 1, Below Below 45 Total Bangun Persada TOTL Above Above 46 Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR 578 1, Below Below 47 Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC Above Above 48 United Tractors UNTR 4,083 8, In line 3,087 6, In line 49 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 3,084 6, In line 2,330 4, In line Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Toll Road ext 3601 Irwan Budiarto Research Analyst Coal, Oil and Gas ext 3606 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst Poultry ext 3603 Stifanus Sulistyo Research Analyst Small cap ext 3611 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Anthony Alexander Research Analyst Construction ext 3613 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3604 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

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