Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Thursday, 2 February 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 3,965.0 (+0.6%) Turnover: IDR4.0t (-1.1%) Foreign net buy: IDR6b (Net sell: IDR100b) ECONOMIC FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Inflation & trade updates January s CPI surged to 0.76% m-m; BI rate likely held at 6.00% February s CPI to remain high but set to decline in March- April 2011 annual external trade: 19% y-y growth in surplus MARKET FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) 4Q11 results preview - Beware of weak earnings season Market reacting adversely to negative news; Deceleration in growth The good: Coal, Infrastructure, Property & Banks The bad: Automotive/ Heavy Equipment The ugly: Cement, Consumer, Oil & Gas, Telcos, Plantations & Metals TODAY S NEWS BOURSE Morgan Stanley sets up Indonesian Brokerage INDUSTRY Prolonged negotiations cost FLPP a potential transaction loss of IDR1.5t The Indonesian commodity and derivatives exchange started tin trading CORPORATE Govt: LNG stock buffer unnecessary ADRO targets 11% sales volume growth in 2012 and to pay USD m dividends ANTM revenue rose on output boost BBKP to raise IDR2t through subdebt NIKL aims 148k tons of tin plate production in 2012 Government cancels PT Pegadaian s IPO plan ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) Op.prof.grwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.1) (1.5) (1.0) EPS growth (%) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG (x) IDR/USD 9,100 8,800 8,750 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) M2 growth (%) Div. yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 20,333.4 (0.3) 10.3 (13.4) IDX (Indonesia) 3, KLCI (Malaysia) 1, (0.6) 0.1 KOSPI (Korea) 1, (5.4) Nikkei (Japan) 8, (14.3) PCOMP (Phil.) 4, SENSEX (India) 17, (4.0) SET (Thailand) 1, SHCOMP (China) 2,268.1 (1.1) 3.1 (19.0) Shenzhen (China) (0.7) (2.0) (29.1) STI (Singapore) 2,904.8 (0.1) 9.8 (8.8) TWSE (Taiwan) 7, (17.5) VNI (Vietnam) (23.5) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3, (17.3) DAX (Germany) 6, (7.9) Dow Jones (USA) 12, FTSE 100 (UK) 5, (2.8) IBOV (Brazil) 64, (4.8) NASDAQ (USA) 2, RTSI (Russia) 1, (15.9) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 6,815 (0.9) (1.3) (10.3) IIT US (IDR) 5,395 (0.4) (4.8) 8.5 Coal (USD/t) 117 (0.3) 4.4 (9.4) Corn (USD/mtn) (0.3) Coffee (USD/t) 4,066 (0.6) (1.5) (10.5) Copper (USD/t) 8, (15.6) Cotton 3M FU (USD/t) 2, (45.8) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 1, (16.8) DOC (IDDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1, Iron ore (USD/mtn) (23.1) Milk (USD/t) 357 (2.4) (7.3) 1.6 Nickel (USD/t) 20, (25.3) Oil (USD/barrel) 97.5 (1.0) (1.4) 7.3 Pulp (USD/t)* 831 (0.2) (0.3) (12.5) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 3,768 (0.4) 15.2 (30.6) Soybean (USD/t) 1, (1.7) (12.8) Steel (USD/t) (12.8) Sugar (USD/t) (14.1) 41.9 Tins (USD/t) 24,108 (0.8) 25.9 (20.2) Wheat (USD/t) (27.5) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD (4.9) (6.0) USD/EUR (1.6) 4.7 IDR/USD 8,985 8,975 (1.0) (0.4) JPY/USD (0.9) 6.5 SGD/USD JIBOR (%) (0.5) (1.9) BI rate (%) (0.5) TD 1 mth (%) (0.2) (0.4) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report

2 BOURSE Morgan Stanley sets up Indonesian Brokerage Morgan Stanley has landed a brokerage seat in Indonesia by acquiring Tiga Pilar Securities. A senior officer at the Indonesia Stock Exchange stated that they have suspended trading by Tiga Pilar Securities pending approval of its plan to transfer its seat to Morgan Stanley. The deal still requires regulatory approval. (Jakarta Globe) INDUSTRY Prolonged negotiations cost FLPP a potential transaction loss of IDR1.5t Indonesia Housing Developer s (Apersi) Chairman, Eddy Ganefo, stated that prolonged negotiations between banks and the government have cost the Housing Liquidity Facility Program (FLPP) a potential transaction value loss of IDR1.5t. The government prohibits FLPP transaction during negotiation process. The loss is calculated from average sales of 10,000 low class house units/ month with price of IDR70-80m during the negotiations in January-February Currently, the deadline for the agreement is end of February 2012, delayed from end of January 2012, and further delayed negotiations will prove even more costly. Meanwhile, FLPP s biggest distributor Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN-BUY-IDR1,180-TP:IDR1,500) through its President Director, Iqbal Latanro, stated that the company could stop distributing FLPP in 2012 if the government insists on setting a low interest rate at 5-6%, while also setting government-banks contribution to the loan at 50:50, from previously 60:40. (Investor daily, detik.com) The Indonesian commodity and derivatives exchange started tin trading The Indonesian Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) started trades on physical tin contract to create an alternative benchmark price to the London Metal Exchange (LME). There are 13 companies so far including Timah (TINS-HOLD-IDR1,870-TP:IDR1,800) that have already registered as sellers and buyers for tin contracts. Bahana: This is positive for Indonesian tin selling prices ahead. However, we retain our HOLD rating on TINS on limited share price upside to our target price. (ITRI) CORPORATE Govt: LNG stock buffer unnecessary Responding to Perusahaan Gas Negara s (PGAS-BUY-IDR3,325-TP:IDR3,800) suggestion to utilize Arun LNG plant as an LNG stock buffer, Evita Legowo, oil and gas director general, stated that it unnecessary as available gas would be directly absorbed by buyers. In addition, I Gde Pradnyana, BP Migas spokesman, stated that the gas production method is more difficult to store than oil. Recently, Hendi Priyo Santoso, PGAS president director, suggested that the Arun LNG plant would be better converted into an LNG storage facility to anticipate disruptions in shipments. (Jakarta Post) ADRO targets 11% sales volume growth in 2012 and to pay USD m dividends Adaro Energy (ADRO-BUY-IDR1,870-TP:IDR2,300) targets 2012 sales volumes to reach 53m tons, up 11% y-y, mainly stemming from higher domestic coal sales of 11m tons (21% of total sales volumes). ADRO s CEO, Garibaldi Thohir, stated that the company expects 5-7% earnings growth this year, lower than our expectation of 18%. He also stated that the company will pay USD m from 2011 earnings as dividends (yield: %), pending shareholders approval in 2Q12. (Jakarta Globe, Investor Daily, Bahana) ANTM revenue rose on output boost In 2011, Aneka Tambang s (ANTM-HOLD-IDR1,880-TP:IDR1,750) unaudited revenue reached USD1.1b, up 18% on rising ferronickel production and sales. ANTM booked 2011 ferronickel sales volumes of 19.5k tons, up 7% y-y, and 2011 gold sales of 8 tons, up 22% y-y. The company has started its new USD1.6bferronickel smelter in Buli, North Maluku, with 27k tons of installed capacity to comply with ore export ban in ANTM also secured USD650m syndicated loan for the Buli plant this week. Bahana: This is in line with our 2011 revenue forecast of IDR10t, up 20% y-y. While we like gold, ANTM has minimal exposure; on other metals, we do not have a positive view due to poor global economic outlook. Retain HOLD on ANTM with hardly any share price upside potential to our target price. (Jakarta Globe) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 BBKP to raise IDR2t through subdebt Bank Bukopin s (BBKP-BUY-IDR660-TP:IDR760) Finance Director, Tri Joko, stated that the company plans to raise IDR2t through a gradual issuance of subdebt for the next two years, starting in 1H12, to strengthen the bank s capital. Tri also mentioned that BBKP plans to conduct another rights issue earliest in 2013, 2 years after BBKP implemented a similar corporate action in (Jakarta Post, Investor Daily) NIKL aims 148k tons of tin plate production in 2012 Pelat Timah Nusantara (NIKL-UR-IDR280-TP:IDR380), aims for 30%-40% production growth to 148k tons from last year s production of around 100k-106k. Bahana: These indicative figures are 8-14% lower than our 2011 production assumption, while 2012 s growth is 14% higher than our assumption of 130k tons. At this current stage, we put NIKL s rating under review. (Indonesia Finance Today) Government cancels PT Pegadaian s IPO plan The government cancel IPO plans of PT Pegadaian, Indonesia s state-owned pawn shop, as the company has sufficient funds. The IPO cancellation of PT Pegadaian was decided by the government at the Government Coordination Meeting on privatization in 2012, led by Coordinating Minister Hatta Rajasa (31 / 1). On that occasion, it was determined that four state-owned enterprises are ready to "go public" this year, PT Semen Baturaja, PT Nusantara Plantation (PTPN) VII, PT Garuda Maintenance Facilities (a subsidiary of Garuda Indonesia), and PT Pertamina Drilling Services (a subsidiary of PT Pertamina). (Investor.co.id) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) TARGET Up/(Downside) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING PRICE Potential (%) 2/1/2012 1/31/2012 CHANGE (%) Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (81.5) Indomobil Sukses International IMAS BUY 15,000 (5.1) 15,800 15, Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,575 2, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,100 1, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,700 1, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14, ,800 11, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA * * * 4,225 4, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,050 6, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 2, ,890 1, United Tractors UNTR BUY 30, ,050 28, Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,870 1, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,200 5, Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,050 1, Ciputra Development CTRA BUY Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI HOLD 6, ,800 5, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5, ,450 4, BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,270 1, Agung Podomoro Land APLN HOLD Delta Dunia Makmur DOID BUY 1, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY Bakrieland Development ELTY HOLD 110 (20.9) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN HOLD Bank Danamon BDMN BUY 5, ,575 4, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,850 4, London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,450 2, Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (7.8) 19,800 19, Bumi Resources BUMI BUY 2,375 (7.8) 2,575 2, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 10,450 (41.8) 17,950 17, Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 3, ,175 3, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 8, ,750 6, Harum Energy HRUM BUY 10, ,650 7, IDX IDX 3,965 3, XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,500 4, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,900 36, Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 13, ,350 11, Indocement INTP HOLD 20, ,000 16, Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 21, ,200 20, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1,750 (6.9) 1,880 1, Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 9, ,000 8, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,625 3, Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE 255 (12.1) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3, ,500 2, Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,500 3, Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,250 1, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1, ,200 1, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Timah TINS HOLD 1,800 (3.7) 1,870 1,880 (0.5) AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 3,150 (13.1) 3,625 3,650 (0.7) Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 3, ,500 3,525 (0.7) Astra Agro Lestari AALI HOLD 20, ,350 20,600 (1.2) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 4, ,950 4,000 (1.3) Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM * * * 6,750 6,850 (1.5) Wintermar Offshore WINS BUY (1.5) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 3, ,325 3,375 (1.5) Astra International ASII BUY 88, ,700 78,900 (1.5) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,180 1,200 (1.7) Gajah Tunggal GJTL BUY 3, ,850 2,900 (1.7) Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,275 2,325 (2.2) Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (14.3) 5,250 5,450 (3.7) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP # of shares Free float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* EPS growth Revenue (IDRb)* Opt. profit (IDRb)* Net profit (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) ,147 1, AIRPORT SERVICE N nc nc CASS BUY ,147 1, , nc nc AUTO & EQUIP. OW 460, , ,909 33,121 38,976 29,976 35, ASII BUY 77,700 88,000 4, , , ,806 20,774 24,090 20,252 23, UNTR BUY 29,050 30,000 3, , ,039 71,882 8,861 10,578 6,842 8, nc nc IMAS BUY 15,800 15,000 1, , ,063 28,967 1,058 1,427 1,379 1, DOID BUY 670 1,000 8, , ,169 9, , (170.2) na na GJTL BUY 2,850 3,650 3, , ,881 13,775 1,517 1,747 1,138 1,335 (6.7) nc BANKING OW 665, , ,154 72,239 83,346 57,038 66, na na na na BBCA BUY 8,000 9,800 24, , ,914 33,926 15,112 17,346 12,358 14, na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,199 3,590 1,075 1, na na na na BBNI BUY 3,625 5,300 18, , ,269 25,469 8,256 9,635 6,651 7, na na na na BBRI BUY 7,050 8,800 24, , ,555 54,053 20,195 23,142 16,481 19, na na na na BBTN BUY 1,180 1,500 8, , ,296 6,110 1,599 1,853 1,206 1, na na na na BDMN BUY 4,575 5,350 9, , ,416 21,443 6,186 7,193 3,992 4, na na na na BJBR BUY 1,050 1,200 9, , ,156 4,803 1,646 1,880 1,285 1, na na na na BMRI BUY 6,750 8,800 23, , ,876 49,761 18,171 21,073 14,198 16, na na na na CEMENT OW 129, ,007 38,515 10,830 12,679 8,581 10, nc nc INTP HOLD 17,000 20,000 3, , ,444 17,268 5,241 5,992 4,079 4, nc nc SMGR BUY 11,350 13,600 5, , ,563 21,247 5,589 6,687 4,502 5, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 21, ,817 38,435 3,503 4,293 1,638 2, WIKA BUY , , ,669 11, , nc nc ADHI BUY , , ,946 13, , PTPP BUY , , ,287 8, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc TOWR BUY 11,800 14,600 1, , ,993 2,297 1,041 1, CONSUMER OW 389, , ,922 28,696 32,137 19,123 21, UNVR HOLD 19,800 18,250 7, , ,339 30,688 6,179 7,238 4,636 5, GGRM BUY 58,100 71,000 1, , ,327 51,881 7,643 8,580 5,704 6, nc INDF BUY 4,850 6,000 8, , ,716 53,101 8,043 8,504 3,714 4, nc nc KLBF HOLD 3,500 3,700 10, , ,875 15,994 2,368 2,702 1,780 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 5,200 7,200 5, , ,636 23,818 3,070 3,416 2,251 2, nc nc MAPI HOLD 5,800 6,500 1, , ,211 8, RALS BUY , , ,335 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 3,500 4,800 1, , ,026 1, nc MINING N 377, , ,594 56,792 63,028 36,198 34, ADRO BUY 1,870 2,300 31, , ,494 46,405 12,116 14,504 5,884 7, ANTM HOLD 1,880 1,750 9, , ,590 10,953 2,287 2,421 1,917 1, (2.5) nc nc BYAN REDUCE 17,950 10,450 3, , ,549 15,669 4,276 4,290 2,891 2, nc nc BUMI BUY 2,575 2,375 20, , ,050 42,321 13,538 13,773 6,009 5, (0.7) INCO HOLD 3,950 4,000 9, , ,645 12,183 4,607 5,592 3,411 4,209 (10.3) (7.9) nc nc INDY BUY 2,575 3,200 5, , ,182 6, ,602 1, ITMG BUY 36,900 49,900 1, , ,940 24,672 6,978 7,537 4, nc nc HRUM BUY 7,650 10,950 2, , ,952 10,444 3,302 3,826 2,257 2, nc nc PTBA BUY 20,200 21,650 2, , ,953 12,822 4,914 5,047 4,044 4, nc nc TINS HOLD 1,870 1,800 5, , ,045 8,658 1,267 1, , (10.7) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,021 10,518 3,207 4,321 2,506 3, OIL & GAS N 102, ,857 54,466 9,571 11,120 7,342 8, AKRA HOLD 3,625 3,150 3, , ,482 28, , nc nc PGAS BUY 3,325 3,800 24, , ,412 24,934 8,454 9,656 6,552 7,538 (2.7) nc nc MEDC BUY 2,275 3,200 3, , , (54.4) PLANTATIONS N 85, ,649 43,666 11,479 12,892 7,537 8, (1.0) AALI HOLD 20,350 20,750 1, , ,213 12,216 3,496 3,849 2,504 2, nc nc BWPT BUY 1,270 1,450 4, , ,007 1, GZCO HOLD , , LSIP BUY 2,450 2,750 6, , ,659 4,910 1,980 2,137 1,704 1, (0.9) nc nc SGRO BUY 3,175 3,700 1, , ,255 3, nc nc UNSP REDUCE , , ,767 6,816 1,193 1, (21.7) (31.9) SIMP HOLD 1,250 1,300 15, , ,158 14,202 3,242 3,639 1,672 1, (6.9) POULTRY OW 49, ,459 44,889 5,942 6,789 4,514 5, CPIN BUY 2,500 3,000 16, , ,020 23,994 4,180 4,840 3,466 4, nc nc JPFA ** 4,225 ** 2, , ,439 20,895 1,762 1,949 1,049 1,196 (24.6) PROPERTY OW 82, ,339 29,812 6,942 8,267 4,680 5, APLN BUY , , ,330 5,142 1,164 1, ASRI BUY , , ,906 1, nc CTRA BUY , , ,875 3, nc CTRP BUY , , nc BSDE BUY 1,100 1,270 17, , ,171 3,896 1,057 1, , nc nc ELTY HOLD , , ,003 2, (47.7) (13.7) LPKR BUY , , ,792 5,325 1,139 1, SMRA BUY 1,200 1,570 6, , ,604 3, KIJA BUY , , ,969 2, LPCK BUY 1,890 2, , ,091 1, SHIPPING N 1, ,009 1, WINS BUY , , ,009 1, TELCOS N 210, , ,115 31,589 35,016 16,259 18,513 (222.9) BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2,992 (249) (160) (700) (679) (6,468.8) 10.2 (3.0) (11.0) (11.3) (17.6) (20.7) EXCL BUY 4,500 5,600 8, , ,366 21,774 4,948 5,761 3,201 4, ISAT REDUCE 5,250 4,500 5, , ,087 23,137 3,301 3,472 1,873 2, (9.4) TLKM ** 6,750 ** 20, , ,367 83,213 23,589 25,944 11,885 13,163 (3.2) TINPLATE N ,686 1, (76.0) nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, (76.0) nc nc TOLL ROAD N 33, ,660 7,565 3,341 3,923 2,171 2, CMNP BUY 1,700 2,000 2, , , nc nc JSMR BUY 4,450 5,000 6, , ,694 6,488 2,790 3,309 1,772 2, Market OW 2,611,508 2,249 1,160,823 1,315, , , , , Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 02/02/ :00 BZ Trade Balance (FOB) - Monthly JAN -$1400M -$1291M $3817M 02/02/ :21 IT New Car Registrations (YoY) JAN % % 02/02/ :38 IT Budget Balance (Year to date) JAN B -61.5B 02/02/ :37 US Total Vehicle Sales JAN 13.50M 14.13M 13.52M 02/02/ :00 SK Foreign Exchange Reserve USD JAN - - $311.34B $306.40B 02/02/ :00 US Domestic Vehicle Sales JAN 10.50M 11.05M 10.45M 02/02/ :30 IN Primary Articles WPI YoY 21-Jan % 02/02/ :00 SP Unemployment MoM Net ('000s) JAN /02/ :30 HK Retail Sales - Value (YoY) DEC 20.50% % 02/02/ :30 UK PMI Construction JAN /02/ :00 EC Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) DEC 4.30% % 02/02/ :30 US Challenger Job Cuts YoY JAN % 02/02/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims 28-Jan 371K K 02/02/ :30 US Continuing Claims 21-Jan 3535K K 02/02/ :45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29-Jan Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (USDb) Aug 10/ FX reserves (USDb) Aug 9/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep Trade balance (USDb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Jun Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (JPYb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Aug 9/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep Trade balance (SGDb) Aug Unemployment rate (%) 2Q 8/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (MYRb) Jul 9/ Unemployment rate (%) 2Q 8/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Jul 8/ Trade balance (USDb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference Rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (USDb) Jul 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Aug 9/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time EGM Sierrad Produce 2/1/12 10:00 EGM Inovisi Infracom 2/3/12 09:30 EGM Garuda Indonesia 2/3/12 09:00 EGM Bumi Citra Permai 2/3/12 10:00 EGM Bumi Resources 2/3/12 10:00 EGM Hotel Sahid Jaya 2/6/12 10:00 EGM Smartfren Telecom 2/6/12 14:00 EGM Goodyear Indonesia 2/9/12 10:00 EGM Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi 2/16/12 09:00 EGM Vale Indonesia 2/17/12 00:00 EGM Surya Intrindo Makmur 2/21/12 10:30 AGM Humpuss Intermoda Trans 2/23/12 10:00 AGM Apexindo Pratama 2/27/12 10:00 AGM Benakat Petroleum Energy 2/29/12 10:00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst Tuesday, 14 February :00 BDMN analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 1/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 1/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 2/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, Q11 total 5,227 4 MBSS 4/6/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 4/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 5/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 5/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 5/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 6/9/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 6/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property Q11 total 5, TIFA 7/8/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 7/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 7/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 7/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 7/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/8/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 14, PADI 1/9/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 1/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 2/1/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas 30 Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Pegadaian Financial Pertamina Drilling Service Oil & gas services Geothermal Energy Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Aviation service Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Coal mining 1, Cipaganti group Transportation Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance MNC Sky Vision Media 2, Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Waskita Karya Construction Bahtera Niaga Internasional Shipping Telesindo Shop Telecommunication PLN Enjiniring Electricity Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Asuransi Mitra Maparya Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Bank Jatim Banks 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Mitraniaga Banks Hutama Karya Construction Toba Bara Sejahtera Mining 3, Angkasa Pura I Airport services GarudaFood Food & beverage Intan Baruprana Heavy equipment financing Mitratel Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indo Krakatau Wajatama Steel Bank Sumut Banks Eka Sari Lorena Transort Transportation total 39,028 Grand total 64,703 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 1/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 1/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 1/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 1/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 2/1/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 4/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 5/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 6/3/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 6/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 6/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 7/1/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 7/8/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 7/5/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 7/6/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 9/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/2/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/4/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/3/11 Panin Financial Financial 499 w22 DKFT 12/2/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/9/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 12,470 Grand total 53,117 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 3Q11 Results Round ups Operating Net No Company Code profit (IDRb) profit (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) 1 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 2,524 3, , ,860 2, , Adhi karya ADHI Adaro Energy* ADRO 911 1, , AKR Corporindo AKRA Aneka Tambang ANTM 1,933 2, , ,558 1, , Astra International ASII 13,310 17, , ,441 17, , Alam Sutera Realty ASRI Bank Central Asia BBCA 9,407 12, , ,653 10, , Bank Bukopin BBKP Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,411 7, , ,059 5, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 12,591 17, , ,431 13, , Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 958 1, , , , Bank Danamon BDMN 3,852 5, , ,449 3, , Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 1,028 1, , , , Bank Mandiri BMRI 12,301 15, , ,173 11, , Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE , Bumi Resources* BUMI 840 1, , BW Plantation BWPT Bayan Resources BYAN 2,128 4, , ,336 2, , Citra Marga Nushapala CMNP Ciputra Development CTRA Ciputra Property CTRP Delta Dunia Makmur DOID (12) 135 na 320 na 24 Bakrieland Development ELTY Xl Axiata EXCL 3,440 5, , ,184 3, , Gozco Plantations GZCO Harum Energy HRUM 1,646 2, , ,081 1, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 2,022 2, , ,528 2, , Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG International Nickel* INCO Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 5,213 7, , ,324 3, , Indika Energy INDY 36 (66) na , , Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 3,196 4, , ,586 3, , Indosat ISAT 2,307 3, , , , Jasa Marga JSMR 3,595 4, , ,049 1, , Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,404 2, , ,065 1, , Lippo Karawaci LPKR PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,533 1, , ,312 1, , Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Medco Energy* MEDC Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 6,068 8, , ,506 6, , Bukit Asam PTBA 2,862 4, , ,323 3, , Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Sampoerna Agro SGRO Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 2,470 3, , ,280 1, , Semen Gresik SMGR 3,402 4, , ,761 4, , Summarecon Agung SMRA Timah TINS 1,183 1, , , , Total Bangun Persada TOTL Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 16,321 24, , ,385 12, , United Tractors UNTR 5,507 7, , ,349 5, , Unilever Indonesia UNVR 4,051 5, , ,025 3, , Wijaya Karya WIKA Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Results relative to Bahana estimates and consensus Operating profit Net profit Above In line Below Above In line Below Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. AALI AALI AALI AALI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADRO ADRO ADRO ADRO AKRA AKRA AKRA AKRA ANTM ANTM ANTM ANTM ASII ASII ASII ASII ASRI ASRI ASRI ASRI BBCA BBCA BBCA BBCA BBKP BBKP BBKP BBKP BBNI BBNI BBNI BBNI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBTN BBTN BBTN BBTN BDMN BDMN BDMN BDMN BJBR BJBR BJBR BJBR BMRI BMRI BMRI BMRI BSDE BSDE BSDE BSDE BUMI BUMI BUMI BUMI BWPT BWPT BWPT BWPT BYAN BYAN BYAN BYAN CMNP CMNP CMNP CMNP CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRP CTRP CTRP CTRP DOID DOID DOID DOID ELTY ELTY ELTY ELTY EXCL EXCL EXCL EXCL GZCO GZCO GZCO GZCO HRUM HRUM HRUM HRUM ICBP ICBP ICBP ICBP INCO INCO INCO INCO INDF INDF INDF INDF INDY INDY INDY INDY INTP INTP INTP INTP ITMG ITMG ITMG ITMG ISAT ISAT ISAT ISAT JSMR JSMR JSMR JSMR KLBF KLBF KLBF KLBF LPKR LPKR LPKR LPKR LSIP LSIP LSIP LSIP MAPI MAPI MAPI MAPI MEDC MEDC MEDC MEDC NIKL NIKL NIKL NIKL PGAS PGAS PGAS PGAS PTBA PTBA PTBA PTBA RALS RALS RALS RALS SGRO SGRO SGRO SGRO SIMP SIMP SIMP SIMP SMGR SMGR SMGR SMGR SMRA SMRA SMRA SMRA TINS TINS TINS TINS TOTL TOTL TOTL TOTL TLKM TLKM TLKM TLKM UNTR UNTR UNTR UNTR UNVR UNVR UNVR UNVR WIKA WIKA WIKA WIKA WINS WINS WINS WINS Source: Company, Bahana, Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Construction, Toll Road ext 3601 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Frederick Daniel Tanggela Research Analyst Coal Mining, Poultry ext 3603 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Stifanus Sulistyo Automotive. Consumer, Telcos, Shipping, Steel Research Analyst ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Associate ext 3611 Isna Alfiathi Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

13 IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES This material was produced by Bahana Securities, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC. and elsewhere in the world by Bahana or an authorized affiliate of Bahana (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by Bahana, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Bahana or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Bahana or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of Bahana or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of Bahana or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report Bahana does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC. is distributing this document in the United States of America. Bahana Securities accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC.