Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Friday, 22 February 2013 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief CORPORATE FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Bank Tabungan Negara - Aggressive Exempted from multiple licensing regulation Higher mortgage ceiling of up to IDR500m per unit Strong pick up in subsidized mortgage post revised regulation Outlook: Favorable lending and funding scheme Additional liquidity to set high loan growth 2013 loan growth target of 25-30% Recommendation: HOLD on 22.7% market outperformance RESULT FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Aneka Tambang - 4Q12 unaudited performance: Improved earnings on higher volumes Net profit up 21% y-y and 195% q-q Production pick up in 4Q12 Margin hurt by weak ASP Outlook: Bad 1Q13 results on the cards due to weak nickel price Recommendation & valuation: Retain REDUCE on 22% downside TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS Apindo: 500k workers might lose jobs Govt may revise 2013 state budget assumptions MoF mulls infrastructure financing by pension funds INDUSTRY Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proposes Darmin Nasution as BI governor CORPORATE Two BBKP s shareholders to release 41.4% stake worth USD410m Bumi plc s General Meeting conclusion ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (1.5) (0.4) 0.2 Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.2) (1.7) (2.0) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (%) EPS gwt exc. coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. coal (x) Total imports (%y-y) PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. coal (x) IDR/USD 9,697 9,250 9,200 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates IDX: 4,632.4 (-0.0%) Turnover: IDR5.5t (-2.2%) Foreign net buy: IDR762b (+180.1%) INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 22,906.7 (1.7) IDX (Indonesia) 4,632.4 (0.0) KLCI (Malaysia) 1, (4.4) 3.4 KOSPI (Korea) 2,008.1 (0.4) 0.6 (1.0) Nikkei (Japan) 11,309.1 (1.4) PCOMP (Phil.) 6, SENSEX (India) 19,325.4 (1.6) (0.5) 4.9 SET (Thailand) 1,528.7 (1.2) SHCOMP (China) 2,326.0 (3.0) 2.5 (3.2) Shenzhen (China) (2.0) 7.8 (0.4) STI (Singapore) 3,287.6 (0.6) TWSE (Taiwan) 7,957.5 (0.9) 3.4 (0.6) VNI (Vietnam) (3.7) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,624.8 (2.3) (0.4) 4.6 DAX (Germany) 7,583.6 (1.9) (0.4) 9.8 Dow Jones (USA) 13,880.6 (0.3) FTSE 100 (UK) 6,291.5 (1.6) IBOV (Brazil) 56,154.7 (0.0) (7.9) (15.2) NASDAQ (USA) 3,131.5 (1.0) RTSI (Russia) 1,547.5 (0.1) 1.3 (6.5) S&P 500 (USA) 1,502.4 (0.6) ETF, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EIDO US (USD) 32.1 (0.5) TLK US (IDR) 9, IIT US (IDR) 6,647 (0.6) BUMI LN (IDR) 57, (47.5) Coal (USD/t) (19.2) Corn (USD/mtn) 271 (1.4) Coffee (USD/t) 2, (26.5) Copper (USD/t) 7,832 (1.2) (0.9) (7.2) Cotton (USD/t) 1,793 (1.2) 8.2 (10.9) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 853 (1.4) 5.3 (24.2) DOC (IDR/kg) 5, Gold (USD/oz.) 1, (5.7) (11.1) Iron ore (USD/mtn) 156 (1.7) Milk (USD/t) (5.3) 7.2 Nickel (USD/t) 16,571 (3.1) (2.5) (17.7) Oil (USD/barrel) 93.0 (1.8) 1.3 (12.5) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, (1.8) (1.8) Rubber (USD/t) 2,941 (1.9) (1.6) (22.7) Soybean oil (USD/t) 1,131 (1.0) 4.3 (5.4) Steel (USD/t) 669 (0.5) 5.1 (1.0) Sugar (USD/t) 571 (0.5) (2.6) 11.1 Tins (USD/t) 23,047 (2.7) (1.4) (4.5) Wheat (USD/t) 266 (2.4) (7.9) 0.9 CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (0.0) 0.4 IDR/USD 9,704 9, JPY/USD (16.3) SGD/USD (1.4) 1.5 JIBOR (%) (0.1) 0.4 BI rate (%) TD 1 month (%) (0.4) CDS (bps) (10.6) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS Apindo: 500k workers might lose jobs Sofjan Wanandi, Chairman of Indonesia s Employers Association (Apindo), stated that due to significantly higher minimum wages on average across the country and around 1,500 companies may not be able to pay wages, around 500k workers could lose their jobs in March. Sofjan also stated that most of the layoffs will occur in Jakarta, Banten and West Java across the food, beverage, tobacco, textile, footwear, leather, toys and furniture industries. Separately, Suhartono, Manpower and Transmigration Ministry Spokesman, stated that they have not received any reports stating companies will layoff their workers. (Jakarta Post) Govt may revise 2013 state budget assumptions Anny Ratnawaty, Deputy Finance Minister, stated that several macroeconomic assumptions in the 2013 state budget may be revised due to persistent deviation going forward. Note that January s Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) surged to USD112.7/bbl, much higher than government s target of USD100/bbl, while oil lifting is predicted to hover 850k bpd, lower than government s target of 900k bpd. Additionally, IDR traded at IDR9,654/USD last month, lower than government s target of IDR9,300/USD. (Jakarta Post) MoF mulls infrastructure financing by pension funds Ministry of Finance (MoF) studies possibility of pension funds to finance infrastructure development ahead. MoF stated that the characteristic of pension funds which have long-term investment horizon matches with investment time frame in infrastructure. Note that recently, pension funds liquid assets are worth IDR29.7t in domestic banks, while ownerships in government bonds amount to IDR27.5t. (Kontan) INDUSTRY Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proposes Darmin Nasution as BI governor Republic of Indonesia s President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) proposed Darmin Nasution as Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor and Hartadi A Sarwono to accompany Darmin for the vacant position of Senior Deputy Governor, for period Should Darmin refuse SBY s alternative candidates for BI Governor are Fuad Rahmany, Taxes General Director and Hartadi A Sarwono, BI Deputy Governor. (Investor Daily) CORPORATE Two BBKP s shareholders to release 41.4% stake worth USD410m Two shareholders in Bank Bukopin (BBKP-HOLD-IDR690-TP:IDR750) are reportedly planning to release a total combined 41.4% of their ownership in the bank with total transaction expected to reach USD410m as stated by a source close to the matter. The name of the shareholders seeking to release their stakes are undisclosed. Currently, BBKP shareholders consists of Kopelindo (31.7%), the Indonesian Government (12.9%), Yayasan Bina Sejahtera Bulog (9.32%), Koperasi Perkayuan Apkindo (5.01%) and the remaining shares are owned by public with ownership under 5%. Bahana: The deal will translate to transaction of IDR1,205/share with valuation of PBV 1.7x, based on yesterday s closing price of IDR690, compared to our 2013 PBV estimate of 0.9x. (Investor Daily) Bumi plc s General Meeting conclusion During yesterday s General Meeting, 19 of the 22 resolutions proposed by Forest Nominees on behalf of NR Investments Limited were rejected (table below). All directors have been retained on the Bumi plc s board of directors with the exception of Nalinkant Rathod (point 5) and Jean-Marc Mizrahi (point 12), while Sir Richard Gozney was elected to the Board (point 18). With these resolutions, the board will now prioritize the execution of the separation from the Bakrie Group and Bumi Resources (BUMI-REDUCE-IDR920-TP:IDR500) and will put this transaction to shareholders for approval as soon as possible. We note that the main key provisions of the separation from the Bakrie Group are: (1) The Bakrie Entities will cancel their indirect holding of 23.8% ownership in Bumi plc, in exchange for the transfer to the Bakrie Group of shares in BUMI held by Bumi plc equivalent to 10.3% stake in BUMI, (2) Bumi plc will sell to the Bakrie Group the remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI for USD278m payable in cash. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 FOR AGAINST % of issued Resolution % of % of share votes votes cast capital cast voted 1. Removal of Samin Tan Removal of Nick von Schirnding Removal of Scott Andrew Merrillees Removal of Alexander Ramlie Removal of Nalinkant Rathod Removal of Julian Michael Horn-Smith Removal of Lord Robin William Renwick Removal of Amir Sambodo Removal of Philip Yeo Removal of Sony Harsono Removal of Graham Ian Holdaway Removal of Jean-Marc Mizrahi Appointment of Wallace King Appointment of Brock Gill Appointment of Hashim Djojohadikusumo Appointment of Roger Davis Appointment of Jonathan Simon Djanogly Appointment of Sir Richard Gozney Appointment of Nathaniel Philip Victor James Rothschild Directors be requested to terminate Nick von Schirnding as Chief Executive and appoint Brock Gill as Chief Executive 21. Directors be requested to terminate Scott Merrillees as Chief Financial Officer Directors be requested to appoint Wallace King as Chairman Source: Company Bahana: Based on our quick calculation, The Bakrie Group s repurchase of its 29.2% ownership from Bumi Plc will be at IDR960/share (4.4% premium to current price), with an assumption that the share swap is based on Bumi Plc s current price. Value Exchange rate Equal to Total BUMI Shares Cash USD278m IDR@9,700 IDR2.7t 3.92b Share swap GBP224m IDR@14,800 IDR3.3t 2.32b Total IDR6.0t 6.24b Price/share IDR960 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside) Potential (%) 2/21/2013 2/20/2013 CHANGE (%) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2, ,275 2, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 7, ,950 6, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 2,350 (4.1) 2,450 2, Cardig Aero Service CASS BUY Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 1,000 (13.0) 1,150 1, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP * * * Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI * * * 4,325 4, ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD 700 (4.1) Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY J Resources Asia Pasifik PSAB BUY 8, ,450 4, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 10, ,350 9, Telkom Indonesia TLKM * * * 9,900 9, Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 10, ,350 10, Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 17, ,550 16, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 29,750 (26.7) 40,600 40, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 730 (18.9) Astra International ASII HOLD 8, ,750 7, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 3,800 (54.8) 8,400 8, Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY 1, BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,320 1, Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1, ,010 1, Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,050 2, Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,300 51, Indika Energy INDY REDUCE 1,250 (12.6) 1,430 1, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 8, ,000 8, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, ,100 1, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 1, ,610 1, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,200 7, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI HOLD 6, ,900 5, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 5, ,675 4, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,190 1, Sampoerna Agro SGRO HOLD 2, ,325 2, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY 980 (12.5) 1,120 1, Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,000 (27.3) 2,750 2, Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 550 (5.2) Wintermar WINS BUY IDX IDX 4,632 4,634 (0.0) Unilever Indonesia UNVR BUY 24, ,150 23,200 (0.2) Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 25, ,850 18,900 (0.3) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 27, ,000 27,100 (0.4) Indocement INTP HOLD 25, ,600 21,700 (0.5) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 5, ,875 4,900 (0.5) Gozco Plantations GZCO REDUCE 150 (20.6) (0.5) Charoen Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3,750 (12.8) 4,300 4,325 (0.6) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 6,500 (22.2) 8,350 8,400 (0.6) AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 3,000 (26.8) 4,100 4,125 (0.6) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,590 1,600 (0.6) Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,600 5,650 (0.9) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,120 1,130 (0.9) Indomobil Sukses International IMAS HOLD 5, ,300 5,350 (0.9) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 6, ,250 5,300 (0.9) United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 17,000 (10.5) 19,000 19,200 (1.0) Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,790 1,810 (1.1) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,150 2,175 (1.1) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,500 8,600 (1.2) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,075 2,100 (1.2) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,660 1,680 (1.2) Bank Jatim BJTM BUY (1.2) Adaro Energy ADRO REDUCE 1,120 (29.1) 1,580 1,600 (1.3) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 4, ,725 3,775 (1.3) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY 1, (1.4) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,450 1,470 (1.4) Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY (1.4) Indosat ISAT HOLD 6, ,700 6,800 (1.5) Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,350 3,400 (1.5) Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (38.5) (1.5) Bukit Asam PTBA REDUCE 12,500 (17.5) 15,150 15,400 (1.6) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, ,190 1,210 (1.7) Erjaya Swasembada ERAA BUY 3, ,800 2,850 (1.8) Hero Supermarket HERO BUY 5, ,400 5,500 (1.8) Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (3.8) (1.9) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA BUY 1, ,370 1,400 (2.1) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, (2.3) Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 7, ,000 6,150 (2.4) Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 4,800 (16.5) 5,750 5,900 (2.5) Timah TINS REDUCE 1,000 (34.2) 1,520 1,560 (2.6) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN REDUCE 480 (11.1) (3.6) Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1,000 (22.5) 1,290 1,340 (3.7) Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE (5.2) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 500 (45.7) (6.1) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD 160 (25.6) (6.5) Source: Bloomberg *Under our restricted list PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Net profit (IDRb) Revenue (IDRb) EPS growth (%) Opt. profit (IDRb) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net gearing (%) P/BV (x) Yield (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,613 37,927 1,551 1,982 1,009 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA BUY , , ,543 36,662 1,276 1, , CASS BUY , , ,070 1, nc AUTOMOTIVE RELATED N 336, , ,330 22,650 24,720 21,413 24, ASII HOLD 7,750 8,500 40, , , ,496 20,207 22,031 19,384 22, IMAS HOLD 5,300 5,425 2, , ,052 24, , GJTL HOLD 2,050 2,400 3, , ,708 13,054 1,498 1,577 1,063 1, ASSA BUY , , , BANKS N 889, , ,773 77,518 90,236 62,160 72, na na na na na BBCA BUY 10,350 10,800 24, , ,011 35,656 14,168 16,821 11,816 14, na na na na na BMRI BUY 9,350 10,400 23, , ,958 49,807 19,240 22,574 15,104 17, na na na na na BBRI HOLD 8,500 8,500 24, , ,061 51,096 21,280 24,015 17,811 20, na na na na na BBNI * 4,325 * 18, , ,628 27,147 8,353 9,799 6,960 8, na na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,000 7,000 9, , ,211 21,498 6,333 7,102 4,130 4, na na na na na BTPN HOLD 4,875 5,400 5, , ,334 7,686 2,509 3,084 2,011 2, na na na na na BBTN BUY 1,590 1,700 10, , ,369 6,478 1,913 2,320 1,403 1, na na na na na BJBR HOLD 1,190 1,250 9, , ,325 5,074 1,626 1,907 1,301 1, na na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,377 2,752 1,000 1, ,060 (20.9) na na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,149 3,578 1,094 1, na na na na na CEMENT OW 177, ,325 44,084 11,903 14,367 9,581 11, nc SMGR BUY 98, ,699 23,710 5,911 7,330 4,809 5, nc ,550 17,600 5, INTP HOLD 21,600 25,300 3, , ,626 20,373 5,992 7,037 4,772 5, nc nc COAL UW 210, , ,811 28,184 21,624 14,625 15,040 (19.7) (23.8) ADRO REDUCE 1,580 1,120 31, , ,875 31,577 9,048 6,866 4,182 2,963 (16.3) (27.6) ITMG REDUCE 40,600 29,750 1, , ,232 20,365 5,575 4,145 5,559 5,560 (19.1) (25.0) nc nc PTBA REDUCE 15,150 12,500 2, , ,650 10,316 3,431 2,494 2,882 2,212 (6.6) (23.3) nc nc BYAN REDUCE 8,400 3,800 3, , ,176 11,199 1, (56.7) (36.7) HRUM REDUCE 5,750 4,800 2, , ,334 7,772 2,245 1,747 1,456 1,147 (1.7) (19.5) nc nc BUMI REDUCE , , ,553 31,573 4,590 3,917 (2,368) 1,013 na na na na 9.6 BORN REDUCE , , ,749 5,344 1,521 1, (60.3) (9.0) INDY REDUCE 1,430 1,250 5, , ,828 7, , (29.4) CONS. & TOLL ROADS OW 70, ,753 52,121 6,392 7,764 3,442 4, JSMR BUY 5,600 7,000 6, , ,718 6,970 2,802 3,513 1,761 2, WIKA BUY 1,660 1,900 6, , ,135 11, , nc nc WSKT BUY , , ,225 11, nc nc CMNP BUY 1,790 2,200 2, , , (4.8) (21.3) PTPP * 920 * 4, , ,479 8, TOTL BUY 1, , , ,111 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 2,450 2,350 1, , ,150 9, CONSUMER - DISCRE. OW 74, ,210 39,066 3,298 3,993 2,474 2, nc nc SCMA BUY 22, ,187 2,547 1,153 1, ,063 (4.9) nc nc ,275 2,475 9, HERO BUY 5,400 5,400 3, , ,628 12, ACES HOLD , , ,271 4, nc nc MAPI BUY 7,200 7,750 1, , ,583 9, nc nc RALS HOLD 1,190 1,350 7, , ,460 8, nc nc RANC BUY 730 1,120 1, , ,081 1, nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 462, , ,957 24,986 28,193 16,542 18,853 (9.3) nc nc UNVR BUY 23,150 24,000 7, , ,264 31,764 6,404 7,069 4,845 5, nc nc GGRM HOLD 51,300 55,000 1, , ,129 52,903 5,731 6,539 3,829 4,453 (21.8) INDF BUY 6,950 7,000 8, , ,574 53,962 6,593 7,390 3,082 3, nc nc KLBF HOLD 1,150 1,000 50, , ,247 15,408 2,262 2,614 1,735 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 8,000 8,600 5, , ,649 23,582 2,934 3,259 2,178 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 3,350 3,950 4, , ,796 7, , nc nc ROTI HOLD 5,900 6,100 1, , ,124 1, nc HEAVY EQUIPMENT UW 72, ,938 66,334 8,176 7,740 5,364 5,569 (10.9) (2.1) UNTR REDUCE 70, ,930 57,942 7,593 7,253 5,613 5,493 (10.9) (2.1) nc nc ,000 17,000 3, DOID HOLD , , ,008 8, (250) na (7.2) (26.8) 8.1 INDUSTRIAL ESTATES OW 20, ,830 10,176 2,400 3,558 1,876 2, BEST BUY 730 1,000 9, , , nc SSIA BUY 1,370 1,470 4, , ,384 4, , nc nc KIJA BUY , , ,451 2, LPCK BUY 3,725 4, , ,040 1, nc nc METALS UW 50, ,391 28,668 2,858 3,877 2,095 2,910 (63.6) INCO REDUCE 2,750 2,000 9, , ,978 9, , ,241 (81.3) ANTM REDUCE 1,290 1,000 9, , ,369 10, (55.9) (3.4) nc nc TINS REDUCE 1,520 1,000 5, , ,493 6, (47.9) (2.2) nc PSAB BUY 4,450 8, , ,551 1, na OIL & GAS N 134, ,437 65,692 12,633 13,356 8,444 9,486 (3.4) PGAS BUY 4,675 5,500 24, , ,298 30,651 9,558 10,382 7,502 8, nc nc AKRA REDUCE 4,100 3,000 3, , ,920 24, (71.7) MEDC HOLD 1,610 1,660 3, , , , ,267 2, (64.8) PLANTATIONS N 74, ,896 44,062 9,609 10,091 5,719 6, AALI BUY 18,850 25,000 1, , ,078 13,463 3,370 3,636 2,377 2,608 (1.2) nc nc SIMP HOLD 1,120 1,200 15, , ,060 15,883 2,767 2,901 1,277 1,355 (29.7) LSIP BUY 2,150 2,500 6, , ,583 5,013 1,446 1,516 1,256 1,313 (26.2) nc nc BWPT BUY 1,320 1,700 4, , ,046 1, (2.4) SGRO HOLD 2,325 2,400 1, , ,972 3, (41.8) UNSP REDUCE , , ,720 4, (91.5) GZCO REDUCE , , (42.2) (9.8) POULTRY N 88, ,931 43,252 5,412 6,224 3,921 4, CPIN BUY 4,300 3,750 16, , ,688 23,751 3,673 4,246 2,899 3, nc JPFA BUY 8,350 6,500 2, , ,243 19,500 1,739 1,978 1,022 1, PROPERTY OW 112, ,426 30,042 7,291 10,182 5,418 7, LPKR BUY 1,100 1,280 23, , ,072 6,604 1,481 1,642 1,092 1, BSDE BUY 1,450 1,860 17, , ,549 5,485 1,382 2,538 1,214 2, nc nc SMRA BUY 2,075 2,300 7, , ,029 3, nc nc ASRI BUY , , ,268 3,132 1,181 1,672 1,003 1, nc nc CTRA BUY 1,010 1,020 15, , ,088 4, , nc nc APLN BUY , , ,613 4,847 1,315 1, CTRP BUY 850 1,170 6, , , SHIPPING N 1, ,107 1, WINS BUY , , ,107 1, STEEL UW 10, ,369 23, (92.8) KRAS REDUCE , , ,369 23, (92.8) TELCOS OW 285, , ,042 34,994 37,031 17,691 19, TLKM * 9,900 * 20, , ,237 81,334 25,729 27,245 13,043 14, EXCL BUY 5,250 6,200 8, , ,468 23,303 4,917 5,071 3,109 3, ISAT HOLD 6,700 6,700 5, ,943 24,027 2,486 2,124 1, (60.7) TOWR BUY 27,000 27,000 1, , ,158 2,556 1,180 1, ERAA BUY 2,800 3,500 2, , ,290 17, TELE BUY , , ,555 13, (1.3) (37.2) BTEL REDUCE , , ,437 2,562 (211) (131) (1,097) (959) 40.1 (12.6) (1.5) (1.7) (1.6) nc (28.5) Market OW 3,088,504 2, ,289,548 1,428, , , , , Note: *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 02/21/ :00 CH Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index 02/21/ :00 FR PMI Manufacturing Feb P /21/ :00 FR PMI Services Feb P /21/ :30 GE PMI Manufacturing Feb A /21/ :30 GE PMI Services Feb A /21/ :30 HK Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.30% % 02/21/ :00 EC PMI Manufacturing Feb A /21/ :00 EC PMI Services Feb A /21/ :00 EC PMI Composite Feb A /21/ :30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Jan -35.0B B 02/21/ :30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) Jan 1.60% % 02/21/ :30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) Jan 1.80% % 02/21/ :30 US CPI Core Index SA Jan /21/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims 16-Feb 355K K 02/21/ :30 US Continuing Claims 9-Feb 3150K K 02/21/ :58 US Markit US PMI Preliminary Feb /21/ :00 US Mortgage Delinquencies 4Q % 02/21/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 4Q % 02/21/ :00 US Existing Home Sales Revisions 02/21/ :00 US Existing Home Sales Jan 4.90M M 02/21/ :00 US Leading Indicators Jan 0.20% % Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ FX reserves (USDb) Sep 10/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 8/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q 5/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 3Q 10/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference Rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Sep 10/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst Thursday, 21 February :00 BBTN analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto Monday, 25 February :00 BMRI analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto Wednesday, 28 February :00 BBNI analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto Monday, 4 March :30 ASII analyst meeting Leonardo Henry Gavaza Tuesday, 5 March :00 BJTM analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time EGM ALKA IJ Alakasa Industrindo 2/26/13 09:00 AGM BULL IJ Buana Listya Tama 2/27/13 10:00 AGM ROTI IJ Nippon Indosari Corpindo 2/28/13 10:00 AGM BBRI IJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia 2/28/13 09:30 EGM TRIM IJ Trimegah Securities 3/4/13 15:00 AGM BKSW IJ Bank QNB Kesawan 3/4/13 10:00 EGM TBIG IJ Tower Bersama Infrastructure 3/7/13 10:00 EGM BRAU IJ Berau Coal Energy 3/7/13 10:00 EGM SIMM IJ Surya Intrindo Makmur 3/8/13 10:00 EGM ARII IJ Atlas Resources 3/13/13 14:00 EGM MAYA IJ Bank Mayapada International 3/14/13 14:00 EGM ELSA IJ Elnusa 3/14/13 10:00 EGM BTPN IJ Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional 3/14/13 10:00 AGM MERK IJ Merck 3/20/13 10:00 EGM BSWD IJ Bank of India Indonesia 3/20/13 15:00 AGM JPFA IJ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia 3/20/13 14:00 AGM PWSI IJ Panca Wiratama Sakti 3/25/13 14:00 AGM BJBR IJ Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jabar 3/25/13 09:00 EGM MDLN IJ Modernland Realty 3/25/13 10:00 AGM AISA IJ Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food 3/26/13 10:00 AGM BJTM IJ Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jatim 3/27/13 09:30 AGM NIKL IJ Pelat Timah Nusantara 3/27/13 10:00 EGM IGAR IJ Champion Pacific Indonesia 3/27/13 10:00 AGM FPNI IJ Titan Kimia Nusantara 3/27/13 09:00 AGM SDPC IJ Millenium Pharmacon International 3/27/13 10:00 AGM BNGA IJ Bank CIMB Niaga 3/28/13 14:00 AGM ARNA IJ Arwana Citramulia 3/28/13 16:00 EGM NIPS IJ Nipress 3/28/13 10:00 AGM IDKM IJ Indosiar Karya Media 4/5/13 09:30 AGM SCMA IJ Surya Citra Media 4/5/13 14:00 AGM TIFA IJ Tifa Finance 4/12/13 14:00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Surya Toto Indonesia 6, % 12/25/ /27/2012 1/14/2013 TOTO IJ Akr Corporindo 4, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/16/2013 AKRA IJ Adaro Energy 1, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/15/2013 ADRO IJ Elang Mahkota Teknologi 4, % 1/2/2013 1/4/2013 1/16/2013 EMTK IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 06/07/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property PALM 10/08/12 Provident Agro Plantation NELY 10/11/12 Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping TAXI 11/02/12 Express Transindo Utama Transportation BSSR 11/08/12 Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal ASSA 11/12/12 Adi Sarana Armada Automotive WIIM 12/18/12 Wismilak Cigarettes WSKT 12/19/12 Waskita Karya Construction 1, total 10, BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management SEBA Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Sumut Banks Nobu National Bank Banks Bank Maspion Banks GarudaFood Consumer PLN Batam Energy Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Riau Baraharum Mining 5, Citra Borneo Indah Plantation 1, Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantation 1, Multi Agro Plantation Siba Surya Transportation Cipaganti group Transportation Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation Spindo Pipes manufacturer 1, total 33,502 Grand total 43,638 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 1H11 total 22, IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 J Resources Asia Pasifik Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN 02/16/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, BSIM 06/25/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1, KIAS 02/24/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain RAJA 05/08/12 Rukun Raharja Energy SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, TRIO 06/26/12 Trikomsel Oke Retail SMMT 06/26/12 Golden Eagle Energy Energy ITTG 07/05/12 Leo Investments Financial MCOR 07/06/12 Bank Windu Kentjana International Banks SUPR 08/16/12 Solusi Tunas Pratama Towers BEKS 09/07/12 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks MDRN 10/29/12 Modern International Retail BBNT 11/19/12 Bank Tabungan Negara Banks 1, COWL 11/20/12 Cowell Development Construction BNLI 11/30/12 Bank Permata Banks 1, INPC 11/30/12 Bank Arta Graha International Banks MYOH 12/18/12 MYOH Technology Telecommunication BIPP 12/10/12 Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Property HOME 12/11/12 Hotel Mandarine Regency Property CNKO 12/14/12 Exploitasi Energi Indonesia Coal 2, SRAJ 12/19/12 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Shipping 1, INCF Amstelco Indonesia Financial 5, total 25,098 Grand total 65,745 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 2012 Results Round ups Operating profit Net profit No Company Code (IDRb) (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 22,687 21, Higher 18,861 17, In line 2 Kalbe Farma KLBF 2,208 2, In line 1,732 1, In line 3 XL Axiata EXCL 4,679 4, In line 2,765 3, Below Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Senior Associate Director Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Associate Director Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Senior Research Manager Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Senior Research Analyst Property, Toll Road ext 3601 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Stifanus Sulistyo Research Analyst Small cap ext 3611 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst Poultry ext 3603 Irwan Budiarto Research Analyst Coal, Oil and Gas ext 3606 Anthony Alexander Research Analyst Construction ext 3613 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Giovanni Aristo Senior Research Associate ext 3604 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Analyst ext 3605 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3604 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Listiana Kwang Equity Sales ext 2546 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES This material was produced by Bahana Securities, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC. and elsewhere in the world by Bahana or an authorized affiliate of Bahana (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by Bahana, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Bahana or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Bahana or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of Bahana or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of Bahana or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report Bahana does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC. is distributing this document in the United States of America. Bahana Securities accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 12