Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Asiamoney s 2013 Best Domestic Equity House Wednesday, 02 October 2013 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,345.9 (+0.7%) Turnover: IDR3.6t (-18.0%) Foreign net sell: IDR257b (-68.1%) CORPORATE FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Express Transindo Utama - Company visit note: On the fast lane Rapid expansions with F bottom line CAGR of 159% Steady cash flow through partnership system 2013 net profit indication IDR130b+, 7.3% higher than consensus Outlook & valuation: A volume growth driven counter; Cheap on PEG TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS BPS: deflation in September CPI of 0.35% m-m Indonesia: Positive current account of USD132m in August 2013 INDUSTRY China to invest up to USD33b in Indonesia No new airline licenses for awhile CORPORATE BBTN to receive 4th refinancing from SMF BDMN: new head office by 2015 GIAA to conduct rights issue and to receive ATR ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (2.7) (3.2) (1.3) Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.2) (2.5) (2.0) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (%) EPS gwt exc. coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. coal (x) Total imports (%y-y) PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. coal (x) IDR/USD 9,67910,80010,600 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 22,859.9 (1.5) IDX (Indonesia) 4, KLCI (Malaysia) 1, KOSPI (Korea) 1, Nikkei (Japan) 14, PCOMP (Phil.) 6, SENSEX (India) 19, SET (Thailand) 1, SHCOMP (China) 2, (4.2) 4.2 Shenzhen (China) 1, STI (Singapore) 3, TWSE (Taiwan) 8, VNI (Vietnam) (0.1) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 4, DAX (Germany) 8, Dow Jones (USA) 15, FTSE 100 (UK) 6,460.0 (0.0) IBOV (Brazil) 53, (12.8) (10.7) NASDAQ (USA) 3, RTSI (Russia) 1, (5.6) (4.8) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ETF, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EIDO US (USD) (18.0) (17.3) TLK US (IDR) 2, (1.7) BUMI LN (IDR) 39,387 (3.6) (21.9) 43.2 Coal (USD/t) 78.8 (0.5) (16.0) (8.6) Corn (USD/mtn) 163 (4.3) (39.3) (41.2) Coffee (USD/t) 2, (15.8) (29.2) Copper (USD/t) 7,174 (1.6) (9.3) (13.6) Cotton (USD/t) 1,873 (1.3) CPO (USD/t-MPOB) (4.3) DOC (IDR/kg) 6, Gold (USD/oz.) 1,288 (3.0) (23.1) (27.4) Iron ore (USD/mtn) (9.3) 26.1 Milk (USD/t) (1.4) (1.0) Nickel (USD/t) 13,675 (1.5) (19.5) (26.8) Oil (USD/barrel) (0.7) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 2,305 (1.1) (22.9) (22.7) Soybean oil (USD/t) 882 (1.9) (18.6) (21.1) Steel (USD/t) (10.4) (1.3) Sugar (USD/t) (10.5) (18.5) Tins (USD/t) 23,010 (1.3) (1.6) 5.0 Wheat (USD/t) (17.0) (21.3) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (2.5) (4.7) IDR/USD 11,333 11, JPY/USD (25.3) SGD/USD (2.5) (1.7) JIBOR (%) BI rate (%) TD 1 month (%) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS BPS: deflation in September CPI of 0.35% m-m Central Statistical Agency (BPS) announced deflation in September Consumer Price Index (CPI) 0.35% m-m, translating to lower inflation of 8.4% y-y compared to August 2013 level of 8.79% y-y. Meanwhile, core CPI reached 0.57% m-m, translating to core CPI inflation of 4.72% y-y. Head of BPS, Suryamin, stated that the deflation was mostly supported by deflation of food materials of -2.88% y-y and transport, communication and financial services of -0.79% y-y. Separately, Indonesia s Minister of Economics, Hatta Rajasa, stated that based on September deflation, the government estimates 2013 inflation to come in below the 9% level. Bahana: September deflation was below our estimate of 0.3% inflation and consensus forecast of 0.15%. This should also pave way for BI to halt rate increases for now in our view. (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily) Indonesia: Positive current account of USD132m in August 2013 Central Statistical Agency (BPS) recorded August 2013 exports of USD13.2b, down 12.8% m-m with imports at USD13.0b, down 25.2% m-m, translating to positive current account of USD132m. However, 8M13 current account are still in deficit of USD5.5b. Head of BPS, Suryamin, stated that the surplus was mainly achieved by decreased imports due to the holiday festivity and lower fuel demand due to the government s hike in prices. Bahana: This should provide a positive catalyst for the market. (Indonesia Finance Today) INDUSTRY China to invest up to USD33b in Indonesia In Indonesia-China Business Luncheon that will be held on tomorrow, China is reportedly committed to invest up to USD33b in Indonesia in the next few years. According to MS Hidayat, Indonesia s Ministry of Industry, there will be 23 agreements to be signed at tomorrow s event. The 23 agreements consist of manufacturing agreements, smelters development, investments in paper industry and coal gasification. Bahana: This is in line with our view that investment will continue to come into Indonesia as China-based companies are forced to relocate due to labor shortage. (Investor Daily) No new airline licenses for awhile The government has imposed a moratorium on issuing new airlines licenses in order to focus on addressing a backlog of infrastructure issues. The moratorium will be effective in September until the government had manages to address the issue. (Jakarta Globe) CORPORATE BBTN to receive 4th refinancing from SMF Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN-BUY-IDR940-TP:IDR1,200) has recently received refinancing from PT Sarana Multigriya Financial (SMF) up to IDR500b aiming at the housing loan liquidity facility (FLPP) scheme. Note that BBTN has previously earned 3 FLPP refinancing (each at IDR500b) from SMF amounting to IDR1.5t with the following breakdown: June 2012 (10.25% rate with 5 years tenor), December 2012 (7.85% rate with 10 years tenor) and June 2013 (7.75% rate with 5 years tenor). Saut Pardede, BBTN s Finance Director, stated that this fourth refinancing program is meant to support middle and long term funding. Bahana: Note that the government subsidized mortgage under FLPP, BBTN would require to secure 30% of its long-term funding while the remaining 70% is provided by the government at a low interest rate of 0.5%. However, recent interest rate hikes would lead to possible changes in this scheme in hope of maintaining fixed subsidized mortgage lending rate at a predetermined rate of 7.25%, in our view. (Kontan, Investor daily, company) BDMN: new head office by 2015 Aiming at enhancing operating efficiencies, Bank Danamon (BDMN-HOLD-IDR3,975-TP:IDR4,500) targets its new head office at Kuningan in South Jakarta will be finished by Together with PT Total Bangun Persada as a contractor on this 4,100sqm land project, BDMN has allocated IDR527b for the development of this new building with 21 total floors (24,000sqm). Bahana: This new headquarters is expected to produce operating cost efficiency, as BDMN currently rents office spaces. Concurrently, then new head office will provide integration amongst all divisions which are currently scattered. Note that BDMN is expected to book 2013 annual rental costs of over IDR520b (+14% y-y) or accounting for nearly 5% of total operating costs, of which the majority is comprised of renting space for its headquarters. (Kontan, Investor Daily) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily

3 GIAA to conduct rights issue and to receive ATR Garuda Indonesia (GIAA-BUY-IDR490-TP:IDR900) will receive the first delivery of ATR turboprop aircraft next month. Previously, GIAA had signed an MOU to acquire 25 ATR s from Avions de Transport Regional, with an option to obtain for 10 more. The aircraft will be leased from Nordic Aviation Capital worth more than USD840m. These aircraft will support GIAA to expand routes to remote areas in the eastern part of Indonesia. Separately, Handrito Hardjono, GIAA s CFO, stated that the company will conduct 10% rights issue in 1Q14, aiming to raise USD200m. He also stated that since the government is not planning absorb the new shares, they will be diluted by approximately 9%, bringing the government s ownership in GIAA down to around 60% from the current 69%. (Jakarta Post, Investor Daily) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside) 10/01/2013 9/30/2013 CHANGE (%) Potential (%) Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 1, ,270 1, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN REDUCE 4, ,600 3, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,450 5, Cardig Aero Services CASS BUY 1, Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 2,200 (6.4) 2,350 2, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI HOLD 5, ,250 4, AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 4,000 (3.6) 4,150 4, Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 600 (1.6) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 1, Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY Bank Mandiri BMRI HOLD 9, ,200 7, Semen Baturaja SMBR BUY Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,950 35, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 1, ,150 1, Indocement INTP BUY 25, ,450 18, Telkom Indonesia TLKM BUY 2, ,150 2, Semen Gresik SMGR HOLD 17, ,300 13, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 2, ,470 1, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 12, ,450 10, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 6, ,300 5, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, ,110 1, Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD Wijaya Karya WIKA * * * 1,950 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA BUY 1, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,350 7, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP REDUCE 500 (34.2) Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 2, ,050 2, Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 350 (23.9) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 7, ,250 5, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,220 1, IDX IDX 4,346 4, United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 14,000 (14.6) 16,400 16, Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 31, ,300 30, ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY Aneka Tambang ANTM BUY 1, ,420 1, Bank Central Asia BBCA HOLD 10, ,000 10, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 4, ,975 3, Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, Indosat ISAT HOLD Under Review - 4,150 4, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 1, ,390 1, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP REDUCE 1,000 (21.3) 1,270 1, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 3, ,625 2, Sampoerna Agro SGRO REDUCE 1,000 (44.1) 1,790 1, Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY Total Bangun Persada TOTL HOLD 1, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 4, ,950 3,975 (0.6) Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 8, ,000 7,050 (0.7) Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 6, ,350 6,400 (0.8) Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT REDUCE 1,100 (11.3) 1,240 1,250 (0.8) Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 3, ,675 2,700 (0.9) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (1.0) Astra Agro Lestari AALI REDUCE 15,000 (22.3) 19,300 19,500 (1.0) Adaro Energy ADRO HOLD (1.1) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,200 4,250 (1.2) BW Plantation BWPT HOLD 700 (11.4) (1.3) Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,750 3,800 (1.3) Bank Jatim BJTM BUY (1.4) Erajaya Swasembada ERAA REDUCE 1,250 (11.3) 1,410 1,430 (1.4) Hero Supermarket HERO REDUCE 2,700 (16.9) 3,250 3,300 (1.5) Astra International ASII REDUCE 6,300 (0.8) 6,350 6,450 (1.6) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY (1.6) Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,100 6,200 (1.6) Wintermar WINS HOLD (1.7) Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (20.0) (2.0) Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2,175 (13.0) 2,500 2,550 (2.0) Sri Rezeki Isman SRIL BUY (2.0) Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,275 2,325 (2.2) Malindo Feedmill MAIN BUY 4, ,400 3,475 (2.2) Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP HOLD Under Review - 3,125 3,200 (2.3) Timah TINS HOLD 1,300 (17.2) 1,570 1,610 (2.5) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR HOLD 2, ,700 2,775 (2.7) Bukit Asam PTBA HOLD 12,000 (3.2) 12,400 12,750 (2.7) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 22,250 (12.7) 25,500 26,300 (3.0) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1, (3.2) Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY (3.6) Indomobil Sukses International IMAS REDUCE 4,425 (18.1) 5,400 5,600 (3.6) SOURCE: BLOOMBERG *UNDER OUR RESTRICTED LIST PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,513 45,623 2,054 2,670 1,411 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA BUY , , ,247 44,205 1,735 2,324 1,285 1, C ASS BUY 890 1,010 2, , ,265 1, nc nc AUTOMOTIVE RELATED N 280, , ,080 18,985 19,911 20,335 20,774 (12.3) ASII REDUC E 6,350 6,300 40, , , ,911 16,594 17,230 18,241 18,612 (6.1) IMAS REDUC E 5,400 4,425 2, , ,019 20, (13.7) GJTL HOLD 2,275 2,450 3, , ,193 15,176 1,567 1,673 1,153 1, (1.1) ASSA BUY , ,034 1, BANKS N 788, , ,713 89, ,429 71,886 80, na na na na BBC A HOLD 10,000 10,700 24, , ,644 41,312 16,606 18,927 13,629 15, na na na na BMRI HOLD 8,200 9,500 23, , ,409 56,575 21,634 24,454 17,503 19, na na na na BBRI HOLD 7,350 8,600 24, , ,173 59,183 25,346 28,465 21,303 23, na na na na BBNI HOLD 4,250 5,000 18, , ,883 31,530 10,027 11,454 8,248 9, na na na na BDMN HOLD 3,975 4,500 9, , ,470 22,860 6,388 6,947 4,137 4, na na na na BTPN HOLD 3,950 4,400 5, , ,568 8,984 2,977 3,441 2,380 2, na na na na BBTN BUY 940 1,200 10, , ,316 7,253 2,048 2,211 1,509 1,628 (4.2) na na na na BJBR HOLD 900 1,000 9, , ,306 5,997 1,765 1,965 1,425 1, na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,786 3,029 1,107 1, (4.2) na na na na BBKP HOLD , , ,578 3,991 1,217 1, , na na na na CEMENT OW 146, ,982 51,639 14,039 16,268 11,203 12, SMGR HOLD 13,300 17,100 5, , ,140 27,097 7,204 8,397 5,741 6, INTP BUY 18,450 25,300 3, , ,841 24,542 6,835 7,871 5,463 6, nc nc SMBR BUY , , ,283 1, nc nc COAL UW 102, , ,602 21,560 24,308 5,632 13,757 (27.1) (1.1) ADRO HOLD , , ,942 32,730 7,162 7,048 3,091 2,941 (15.6) (4.4) ITMG REDUC E 25,500 22,250 1, , ,245 21,250 4,324 4,569 5,560 5,561 (25.5) nc nc PTBA HOLD 12,400 12,000 2, , ,269 10,473 2,072 1,745 1,795 1,544 (38.1) (14.0) nc nc HRUM REDUC E 2,675 3,000 2, , ,108 8,279 1,822 1,846 1,197 1,225 (5.0) nc nc BUMI REDUC E , , ,234 38,035 4,969 9,100 (6,734) 2,486 na na (156.2) 35.1 CONS. & TOLL ROADS N 73, ,228 64,682 7,707 9,683 4,091 5, JSMR BUY 5,450 7,300 6, , ,323 7,589 2,845 3,491 1,644 1, WIKA * 1,950 * 6, , ,738 14,571 1,291 1, , nc nc WSKT BUY , , ,778 14, , nc nc C MNP HOLD 3,125 UR 2, , ,005 1, (24.6) PTPP BUY 1,150 1,400 4, , ,554 13,165 1,198 1, TOTL HOLD 780 1,000 3, , ,318 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 2,050 2,200 1, , ,513 10, CONSUMER - DISCRE. OW 81, ,144 46,624 3,886 4,596 2,866 3, nc nc SC MA BUY 36, ,547 2,897 1,395 1,599 1,063 1, nc nc ,500 2,175 14, HERO REDUC E 3,250 UR 4, , ,904 15, nc nc AC ES HOLD , , ,148 4, nc nc MAPI BUY 6,100 7,900 1, , ,385 11, nc nc RALS HOLD 1,220 1,350 7, , ,666 10, nc nc RANC UR 620 UR 1, ,494 1, nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 510, , ,833 28,193 31,610 18,853 21, nc nc UNVR HOLD 231, ,764 36,978 7,069 7,783 5,370 5, nc nc ,300 31,150 7, GGRM HOLD 35,950 55,000 1, , ,903 59,494 6,539 7,525 4,453 5, INDF BUY 7,000 8,500 8, , ,962 57,881 7,390 8,098 3,530 3, nc nc KLBF BUY 1,270 1,580 50, , ,408 17,387 2,614 2,968 2,009 2, nc nc IC BP BUY 10,450 12,100 5, , ,582 25,190 3,259 3,649 2,417 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 3,750 3,950 4, , ,919 9,181 1,086 1, , nc nc ROTI BUY 6,350 6,475 1, , ,419 1, nc nc HEAVY EQUIPMENT UW 61, ,144 61,094 6,347 6,697 4,591 4,944 (21.9) UNTR REDUC E 16,400 14,000 3, , ,751 52,474 5,860 6,080 4,515 4,747 (21.9) nc nc DOID HOLD , ,393 8, na na INDUSTRIAL ESTATES OW 16, ,904 10,997 3,539 3,892 2,778 3, BEST BUY , , ,368 1, (3.7) nc nc SSIA BUY 730 1,050 4, , ,496 5,022 1,141 1, nc nc KIJA BUY , , ,833 3, , LPC K BUY 5,250 7, , ,207 1, nc nc METALS UW 44, ,129 31,248 3,245 3,935 2,560 3, INC O HOLD 2,350 2,200 9, , ,148 14,859 1,818 2,328 1,281 1, ANTM BUY 1,420 1,650 9, , ,239 8, (3.4) (1.3) nc nc TINS HOLD 1,570 1,300 5, , ,742 7, (6.0) nc nc OIL & GAS N 153, ,456 76,553 13,976 14,478 10,334 10, PGAS BUY 5,300 6,800 24, , ,977 34,284 10,831 11,115 9,098 9, nc nc AKRA REDUC E 4,150 4,000 3, , ,645 30, , MEDC HOLD 2,625 3,000 3, , , , ,168 2, PLANTATIONS N 61, ,309 40,586 5,648 6,131 3,381 3,632 (41.4) AALI REDUC E 19,300 15,000 1, , ,771 15,065 2,123 2,472 1,409 1,647 (41.5) nc nc SIMP REDUC E , , ,573 14,787 1,718 1, (48.4) (6.0) LSIP REDUC E 1,270 1,000 6, , ,294 4, (47.0) (6.5) nc nc BWPT HOLD , , ,082 1, (39.9) SGRO REDUC E 1,790 1,000 1, , ,810 2, (49.6) (4.6) ANJT REDUC E 1,240 1,100 3, , ,778 2, nc nc POULTRY N 79, ,969 54,789 6,843 7,973 5,027 5, C PIN REDUC E 3,600 UR 16, , ,751 27,895 4,246 4,997 3,362 3, nc nc JPFA BUY 1,390 UR 10, , ,068 22,068 1,978 2,246 1,218 1, MAIN BUY 3,400 4,200 1, , ,149 4, PROPERTY OW 99, ,993 38,188 11,024 13,545 8,396 10, LPKR BUY 1,110 1,450 23, , ,604 7,415 1,502 1,820 1,174 1, BSDE BUY 1,470 2,125 17, , ,434 6,888 2,526 3,160 2,171 2, nc nc SMRA BUY 770 1,600 14, , ,815 4,312 1,267 1,361 1,053 1, nc nc ASRI BUY 620 1,050 19, , ,337 4,054 1,748 2,204 1,485 1, nc nc C TRA BUY 940 1,600 15, , ,339 7,183 1,589 2, , nc nc APLN BUY , , ,564 6,105 1,642 1,814 1,005 1, C TRP BUY 810 1,040 6, , ,901 2, SHIPPING N 2, ,220 1, WINS HOLD , , ,220 1, STEEL UW 7, ,009 25, , KRAS REDUC E , , ,009 25, , TELCOS OW 309, , ,607 36,366 40,332 19,249 21, TLKM BUY 2,150 2, , , ,334 86,953 27,245 29,773 14,423 15, EXC L BUY 4,200 5,375 8, , ,303 24,839 5,071 5,461 3,334 3, ISAT HOLD 4,150 UR 5, , ,027 26,449 1,425 1,849 (157) 732 (141.8) (494.0) (143.7) (0.3) (0.9) 4.0 TOWR HOLD 2,700 2,950 10, , ,556 2,995 1,442 1, (87.3) ERAA REDUC E 1,410 1,250 2, , ,985 21, TELE BUY , , ,139 15, TEXTILE OW 4, ,690 4, SRIL BUY , , ,690 4, Market N 2,839,974 3,545 1,390,506 1,526, , , , , Note: *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 09/23/ :30 TA Unemployment Rate Aug % 09/23/ :45 CH HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Sep /23/ :00 SI CPI NSA MoM Aug % 09/23/ :00 SI CPI YoY Aug % 09/23/ :00 FR PMI Manufacturing Sep P /23/ :00 FR PMI Services Sep P /23/ :00 SZ Money Supply M3 YoY Aug % 09/23/ :00 SZ KOF Institute September Economic Forecast 09/23/ :30 GE PMI Manufacturing Sep A /23/ :30 GE PMI Services Sep A /23/ :00 EC PMI Manufacturing Sep A /23/ :00 EC PMI Services Sep A /23/ :00 EC PMI Composite Sep A /23/ :00 LN Industrial Production YoY Aug % 09/23/ :30 HK CPI Composite YoY Aug % 09/23/ :00 HR Unemployment Rate Aug % 09/23/ :00 MA Foreign Reserves 13-Sep $134.8B 09/23/ :00 BZ FGV CPI IPC-S 22-Sep /23/ :30 BZ Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey 09/23/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug /23/ :58 US Markit US PMI Preliminary Sep Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ FX reserves (USDb) Jul 8/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug Unemployment rate (%) Jul Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q13 5/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jun 7/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q13 5/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 2/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) May 7/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference Rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst 1 October MNCN company visit Alvian Andrean 1 October PTPP company visit Aditya Eka Prakasa 3 October EXCL company visit Alvian Andrean 7 October KIJA company visit Salman Fajari Alamsyah AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time EGM BIPI IJ Benakat Petroleum 10/02/ :00 EGM CNKO IJ Exploitasi Energi 10/04/ :00 EGM LCGP IJ Laguna Cipta Griya Tbk PT 10/10/ :00 EGM PTBA IJ Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PT 10/10/ :00 EGM PTPP IJ Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT 10/23/ :00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex date Record date Payment date Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) Global Mediacom 1, % 9/11/2013 9/13/2013 9/27/2013 BMTR IJ Mnc Kapital Indonesia 1, % 9/18/2013 9/20/ /4/2013 BCAP IJ Sarana Menara Nusantara 2, % 9/19/2013 9/23/ /3/2013 TOWR IJ Tower Bersama Infrastructure 5, % 9/19/2013 9/23/ /3/2013 TBIG IJ AKR Corporindo 3, % 9/19/2013 9/23/ /4/2013 AKRA IJ Mnc Investama % 9/20/2013 9/24/ /8/2013 BHIT IJ Tunas Baru Lampung % 9/27/ /1/ /17/2013 TBLA IJ Selamat Sempurna 2, % 10/1/ /3/ /18/2013 SMSM IJ Astra International 6, % 10/11/ /17/ /31/2013 ASII IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 06/07/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property PALM 10/08/12 Provident Agro Plantation NELY 10/11/12 Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping TAXI 11/02/12 Express Transindo Utama Transportation BSSR 11/08/12 Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal ASSA 11/12/12 Adi Sarana Armada Automotive WIIM 12/18/12 Wismilak Cigarettes WSKT 12/19/12 Waskita Karya Construction 1, total 10, BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management MAGP 01/16/13 Multi Agro Gemilang Plantations TPMA 02/20/13 Trans Power Marine Transportation ISSP 02/22/13 Spindo Pipes manufacturer DYAN 03/25/13 Dyandra Media International Entertainment ANJT 05/08/13 Austindo Nusantara Jaya Plantation NOBU 05/20/13 Bank Nationalnobu Banking MPMX 05/29/13 Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Automotive 1, DSNG 06/14/13 Dharma Satya Nusantara Plantations SRIL 06/17/13 Sritex Textile 1, ACST 06/24/13 Acset Indonesia Construction SRTG 06/26/13 Saratoga Investa Sedaya Finance 1, NRCA 06/27/13 Nusa Raya Cipta Construction SMBR 06/28/13 Semen Baturaja Cement 1, ECII 07/03/13 Electronic City Indonesia Retail 1, BBMD 07/08/13 Bank Mestika Dharma Banking 1, MLPT 07/08/13 Multipolar Technology IT VICO 07/08/13 Victoria Investama Finance CPGT 07/09/13 Cipaganti group Transportation NAGA 07/09/13 Bank Mitraniaga Banking BMAS 07/11/13 Bank Maspion Banking Bank Muamalat Indonesia Banking 1,940-2, Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bank Sumut Banking Wika Beton Construction material 1, PLN Batam Energy Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance Citra Borneo Indah Plantations 1, Dutapalma Nusantara Plantations Multi Agro Plantations Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantations 1, /26/13 Delta Mas Property 2, Sriboga Ratu Raya Restaurant Blue Bird Transportation 2, Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation Siba Surya Transportation Sido Muncul Healthcare 1, Grand Kartech Manufacturing total 29,431 Grand total 39,657 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 J Resources Asia Pasifik Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1, total 40, FREN 02/16/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, BSIM 06/25/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1, KIAS 02/24/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain RAJA 05/08/12 Rukun Raharja Energy SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, TRIO 06/26/12 Trikomsel Oke Retail SMMT 06/26/12 Golden Eagle Energy Energy ITTG 07/05/12 Leo Investments Financial MCOR 07/06/12 Bank Windu Kentjana International Banks SUPR 08/16/12 Solusi Tunas Pratama Towers BEKS 09/07/12 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks MDRN 10/29/12 Modern International Retail BBNT 11/19/12 Bank Tabungan Negara Banks 1, COWL 11/20/12 Cowell Development Construction BNLI 11/30/12 Bank Permata Banks 1, INPC 11/30/12 Bank Arta Graha International Banks MYOH 12/18/12 MYOH Technology Telecommunication BIPP 12/10/12 Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Property HOME 12/11/12 Hotel Mandarine Regency Property CNKO 12/14/12 Exploitasi Energi Indonesia Coal 2, SRAJ 12/19/12 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Shipping 1, INCF Amstelco Indonesia Financial 5, total 25,098 CENT 02/01/13 Centrin Online Information Technology 675 TKGA 03/08/13 Permata Prima Sakti Coal 480 TRIM 04/08/13 Trimegah Securities Financial 80 AUTO 04/25/13 Astra Otoparts Automotive parts 2,900 HERO 06/14/13 Hero Supermarket Retail 3,350 INDS 07/01/13 Indospring Automotive parts 1, total 13,585 Grand total 79,330 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 1H13 Results Round ups Operating profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) No Company Code Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 ACE Hardware ACES 2 Adi Sarana Armada ASSA In line In line 3 Agung Podomoro Land APLN 740 1, In line Above 4 AKR Corporindo AKRA Below In line 5 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 942 1, Above 747 1, In line 6 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 954 2, Below 771 1, In line 7 Astra International ASII 7,895 18, Below 8,819 18, In line 8 Austindo Nusantara Jaya* ANJT Below Below 9 Bank Central Asia BBCA 7,722 16, In line 6,321 13, In line 10 Bank Danamon BDMN 2,760 6, Below 1,985 4, Below 11 Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 942 1, In line 747 1, In line 12 Bank Jatim BJTM 593 1, In line In line 13 Bank Mandiri BMRI 10,766 21, In line 8,295 17, In line 14 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,204 10, In line 4,278 8, In line 15 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 11,729 24, In line 10,152 20, In line 16 Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 918 2, Below 673 1, Below 17 Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN 1,481 2, In line 1,178 2, In line 18 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST 19 Bukit Asam BA 1,058 2, In line 870 1, In line 20 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,732 2, Above 1,557 2, Above 21 BW Plantation BWPT Below In line 22 Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP Above Above 23 Charoen Pokphand CPIN 1,978 4, Below 1,531 3, Below 24 Ciputra Development CTRA 733 1, In line In line 25 Ciputra Property CTRP Below Below 26 Erajaya Swasembada ERAA Below Below 27 Gajah Tunggal GJTL 770 1, In line 460 1, Below 28 Gozco Plantations GZCO (23) 57 na Below Below 29 Gudang Garam GGRM 3,231 6, In line 2,202 4, In line 30 Harum Energy* HRUM In line In line 31 Indocement Tunggal Prakasa INTP 2,955 6, In line 2,421 5, In line 32 Indosat ISAT 33 Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,213 2, In line 922 2, In line 34 Indomobil Sukses International IMAS In line In line 35 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 915 1, Below 489 1, Below 36 Jasa Marga JSMR 1,317 3, Below 761 2, Below 37 Malindo Feedmill MAIN In Line Below 38 Medco Energi* MEDC In line Below 39 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Below Below 40 PT Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 309 1, In Line In Line 41 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Above In line 42 Sampoerna Agro SGRO Below Below 43 Semen Indonesia SMGR 3,342 7, In line 2,585 5, In line 44 Supra Boga Lestari RANC 45 Surya Semestra Internusa SSIA 501 1, Below Below 46 Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 13,535 27, In line 7,125 14, In line 47 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE In line In line 48 Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC Below Below 49 Total Bangun Persada TOTL Below Below 50 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 3,736 7, Above 2,824 5, Above 51 United Tractors UNTR 2,946 6, In line 2,310 5, In line 52 Wijaya Karya WIKA 524 1, In line Below 53 Wintermar WINS In line Below 54 XL Axiata EXCL 1,452 3, Below 670 2, Below Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Senior Associate Director Head of Equities & Research Strategy, Consumer ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Associate Director Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Senior Research Manager Auto, Plantations, Heavy equipment, Property, Industrial estate ext 3608 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Stifanus Sulistyo Research Analyst Auto, Consumer, Telco, Media ext 3611 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst Poultry, Telco, Aviation, Construction ext 3603 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Analyst Property, Industrial estate, Steel, Cement, Toll roads ext 3605 Jennifer Frederika Yapply Research Analyst Coal, Oil and gas, Metals, Construction ext 3606 Alvian Andrean Research Analyst Auto, Consumer, Telco, Media ext 3611 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst, Transportation ext 3609 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Zefanya Angeline Halim Research Associate ext 3612 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3614 Laurensius Teiseran Research Associate ext 3601 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: (Foreign Institutional) (Domestic Institutional) (Surabaya Branch) Ashish Agrawal ext 2553 John M. Dasaad ext 2549 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Ricardo Silaen,CFA ext 2524 Siti Fathia Maisa Syafurah ext 2547 Suwardi Widjaja ext 2548 Reynard M P reynard@bahana.co.id ext 2528 Angky Amarylis angky.amarylis@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2525 Jonathan Gregorius M.T Gregorius@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2546 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11