Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Thursday, 23 February 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief SECTOR FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Banking Update BI & the government: Incongruous Outlook: Tough year for the banking industry; Cutting TP s by 4-8% Recommendation & valuation: Cut to NEUTRAL; Prefer solid big banks RESULT FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Astra Agro Lestari 4Q11 performance: In line with ours but below consensus Outlook: Expect flat growth in 2012 with underperformance to persist Recommendation & valuation: Expensive and limited growth; HOLD TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS BI: 2012 inflation could soar to 7% y-y Apindo: Business only tolerates maximum IDR2,000/ltr subsidized fuel hike INDUSTRY Gas prices to Duyong increased to USD6/MMbtu CORPORATE KLBF to build OTC plant in Cikarang ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) Op.prof.grwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.1) (1.5) (1.0) EPS growth (%) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG (x) IDR/USD 9,100 8,800 8,750 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) M2 growth (%) Div. yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates IDX: 3,958.8 (-0.9%) Turnover: IDR3.3t (-4.4%) Foreign net sell: IDR121b (+148.5%) INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 21,381.0 (0.8) 16.0 (6.7) IDX (Indonesia) 3,958.8 (0.9) KLCI (Malaysia) 1,556.7 (0.2) KOSPI (Korea) 2,007.8 (1.0) Nikkei (Japan) 9, (9.3) PCOMP (Phil.) 4,893.5 (0.8) SENSEX (India) 18,078.5 (0.4) 17.0 (0.5) SET (Thailand) 1, SHCOMP (China) 2, (15.8) Shenzhen (China) (24.7) STI (Singapore) 2,968.3 (0.9) 12.2 (1.1) TWSE (Taiwan) 7,937.3 (0.8) 12.2 (6.9) VNI (Vietnam) (9.9) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,447.3 (0.0) 9.1 (14.1) DAX (Germany) 6,809.5 (0.5) 15.4 (5.4) Dow Jones (USA) 12, FTSE 100 (UK) 5, IBOV (Brazil) 65,819.6 (0.4) 16.0 (1.6) NASDAQ (USA) 2, RTSI (Russia) 1,640.9 (0.1) 18.7 (12.5) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 7, (6.8) IIT US (IDR) 5,313 (2.7) (7.1) 6.5 Coal (USD/t) 118 (0.1) 5.1 (7.7) Corn (USD/mtn) (5.7) Coffee (USD/t) 3,920 (1.5) (5.1) (21.2) Copper (USD/t) 8,395 (0.5) 10.6 (10.9) Cotton (USD/t) 1,929 (1.2) (4.7) (53.1) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 1, (6.6) DOC (IDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1, Iron ore (USD/mtn) (25.0) Milk (USD/t) 336 (0.9) (12.8) (3.3) Nickel (USD/t) 19,917 (0.5) 6.4 (30.5) Oil (USD/barrel) Pulp (USD/t)* (0.4) (12.5) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 3, Soybean (USD/t) 1,195 (0.0) 4.1 (1.5) Steel (USD/t) 670 (0.1) 0.1 (13.3) Sugar (USD/t) 568 (0.4) (1.3) 3.6 Tins (USD/t) 24, (23.3) Wheat (USD/t) 236 (0.7) (4.5) (28.4) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD (5.1) (7.0) USD/EUR (3.2) 2.7 IDR/USD 9,064 9,055 (0.1) 2.2 JPY/USD SGD/USD JIBOR (%) (0.8) (2.5) BI rate (%) (0.3) (1.0) TD 1 mth (%) (0.5) (0.8) CDS (bps) (22.6) 3.7 Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report

2 ECONOMICS BI: 2012 inflation could soar to 7% y-y Bank Indonesia s (BI) Head of Economic Research Bureau, Juda Agung, estimates that if the government would raise subsidized fuel prices by IDR1,000/ltr, 2012 inflation rate could soar to 7% y-y from the government s target of 5.3%. Note that BI s calculation is applied to only the direct impact to CPI. Bahana: BI s estimate is in line with our expectation. Additionally, Our sensitivity analysis reveals that IDR1,500/ltr hike in fuel price will raise our 2012 inflation assumption from 5.2% to 7.9%. As a result, this higher fuel price will translate to lower GDP growth from 6.4% to 5.7%. (Indonesia Finance Today, Bahana) Apindo: Business only tolerates maximum IDR2,000/ltr subsidized fuel hike Sofjan Wanandi, Chairman of Indonesia s Business Association (Apindo), stated that domestic business players only tolerates maximum IDR2,000/ltr subsidized fuel hike. He added that business players concur with the government s subsidy policy, allowing the government to enlarge capital expenditure on infrastructure which would reduce supply constraints and minimize long-term inflation. (Indonesia Finance Today) INDUSTRY Gas prices to Duyong increased to USD6/MMbtu Upstream oil and gas regulator (BP Migas) stated that it has successfully renegotiated gas selling prices from ConocoPhillips to Duyong, Malaysia, by 122% from USD2.7/MMbtu to USD6/MMbtu. ConocoPhillips has been selling gas to Petronas since 2002 from Natuna Block B, with volume of MMscfd under 25-year contract. In addition, BP Migas also plans to renegotiate domestic gas prices, since most of domestic gas contracts have been priced using USD3/MMbtu. For instance, gas selling prices from ConocoPhillips to Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS-BUY-IDR3,650-IDR:TP4,400) at Corridor Block is around USD1.8/MMbtu for 295MMscfd. The supply from Pertamina Pagar Dewa to PGAS is sold at USD2.4/MMbtu for 250MMscfd. (Investor Daily) CORPORATE KLBF to build OTC plant in Cikarang Kalbe Farma (KLBF-REDUCE-IDR3,450-TP:IDR3,000) intends to build a new OTC plant for Promag in Cikarang (located at the same place with old plant), since the utilization rate has reached 100%. The plant is expected to increase Promag s daily production capacity by 50% from 100m tablets to 150m tablets. To support this plan, the company has allocated IDR700b capex from internal cash this year (including the investment for the above-mentioned plant). (Indonesia Finance Today) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) 2/23/2012 2/22/2012 PRICE Potential (%) CHANGE (%) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA * * * 4,475 4, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 620 (6.1) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE HOLD 1, ,210 1, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI HOLD 550 (5.2) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14, ,500 12, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 580 (13.4) Wintermar Offshore WINS BUY Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 13, ,250 11, Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY Adhi Karya ADHI BUY AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 3,150 (17.1) 3,800 3, Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP HOLD Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (81.8) Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 10,450 (42.1) 18,050 18, BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,520 1, Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,000 2, Gozco Plantations GZCO BUY Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,650 2, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,500 5, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5, ,675 4, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 6, ,400 5, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,500 3, Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY 1, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,420 1, Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 4, ,475 3, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1, ,300 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA REDUCE 800 (14.9) Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,900 4, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,400 43,500 (0.2) Indocement INTP BUY 20, ,050 17,100 (0.3) Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,875 4,900 (0.5) Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 9, ,500 7,550 (0.7) Astra Agro Lestari AALI HOLD 22,000 (0.2) 22,050 22,200 (0.7) Indomobil Sukses International IMAS BUY 15, ,650 14,750 (0.7) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,625 3,650 (0.7) Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM * * * 7,000 7,050 (0.7) Bakrieland Development ELTY REDUCE 110 (17.9) (0.7) Gajah Tunggal GJTL BUY 3, ,825 2,850 (0.9) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, ,110 1,120 (0.9) IDX IDX 3,959 3,995 (0.9) Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (15.1) 5,300 5,350 (0.9) Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 26, ,800 21,000 (1.0) Bumi Resources BUMI BUY 2,375 (5.0) 2,500 2,525 (1.0) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 2, ,910 1,930 (1.0) Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,300 2,325 (1.1) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN HOLD (1.1) Timah TINS HOLD 1,800 (10.0) 2,000 2,025 (1.2) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 680 (1.4) (1.4) Kalbe Farma KLBF REDUCE 3,000 (13.0) 3,450 3,500 (1.4) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,850 6,950 (1.4) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID BUY 1, (1.4) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN HOLD 1, ,210 1,230 (1.6) Harum Energy HRUM BUY 10, ,600 8,750 (1.7) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3, ,750 2,800 (1.8) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 3, ,650 2,700 (1.9) Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,960 2,000 (2.0) Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1,750 (10.7) 1,960 2,000 (2.0) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 4, ,625 3,700 (2.0) Astra International ASII BUY 88, ,850 72,350 (2.1) Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 5, ,400 4,500 (2.2) Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 7, ,300 6,450 (2.3) Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (1.6) 18,550 19,150 (3.1) United Tractors UNTR BUY 34, ,250 29,200 (3.3) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 4, ,650 3,775 (3.3) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 JCI Code Rating Price TP # of shares Free float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* Revenue (IDRb)* Opt. profit (IDRb)* Net profit (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) ,147 1, AIRPORT SERVICE N nc nc CASS BUY ,147 1, , nc nc AUTO & EQUIP. OW 427, , ,909 33,121 38,976 29,976 35, ASII BUY 70,850 88,000 4, , , ,806 20,774 24,090 20,252 23, UNTR BUY 28,250 34,000 3, , ,039 71,882 8,861 10,578 6,842 8, nc nc IMAS BUY 14,650 15,000 1, , ,063 28,967 1,058 1,427 1,379 1, GJTL BUY 2,825 3,650 3, , ,881 13,775 1,517 1,747 1,138 1, nc DOID BUY 680 1,000 8, , ,169 9, , na na BANKING OW 637, , ,216 70,794 82,060 55,871 64, na na na na BBCA BUY 7,500 9,000 24, , ,914 33,926 15,112 17,346 12,358 14, na na na na BBKP HOLD , , ,199 3,590 1,075 1, na na na na BBNI BUY 3,625 5,000 18, , ,269 25,469 8,256 9,635 6,651 7, na na na na BBRI BUY 6,850 8,150 24, , ,555 54,053 20,195 23,142 16,481 19, na na na na BBTN HOLD 1,210 1,380 8, , ,296 6,110 1,599 1,853 1,206 1, na na na na BDMN HOLD 4,400 5,000 9, , ,416 21,443 6,186 7,193 3,992 4, na na na na BJBR HOLD 1,110 1,250 9, , ,210 4,882 1,669 1,944 1,292 1, na na na na BMRI BUY 6,300 7,500 23, , ,350 48,742 16,702 19,722 13,023 15, na na na na CEMENT OW 129, ,007 38,515 10,830 12,679 8,581 10, nc nc INTP BUY 17,050 20,000 3, , ,444 17,268 5,241 5,992 4,079 4, nc nc SMGR BUY 11,250 13,600 5, , ,563 21,247 5,589 6,687 4,502 5, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 23, ,817 38,435 3,503 4,293 1,638 2, TOWR BUY 12,500 14,600 1, , ,993 2,297 1,041 1, WIKA BUY , , ,669 11, , nc nc PTPP BUY , , ,287 8, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc ADHI BUY , , ,946 13, , CONSUMER OW 373, , ,922 28,696 32,137 19,123 21, UNVR HOLD 18,550 18,250 7, , ,339 30,688 6,179 7,238 4,636 5, GGRM BUY 53,650 71,000 1, , ,327 51,881 7,643 8,580 5,704 6, nc INDF BUY 4,875 6,000 8, , ,716 53,101 8,043 8,504 3,714 4, nc nc KLBF REDUCE 3,450 3,000 10, , ,875 15,994 2,368 2,702 1,780 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 5,500 7,200 5, , ,636 23,818 3,070 3,416 2,251 2, nc nc MAPI BUY 5,400 6,500 1, , ,211 8, RALS BUY 860 1,000 7, , ,335 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 3,500 4,800 1, , ,026 1, nc MINING N 388, , ,594 56,792 63,028 36,633 40, ADRO BUY 1,960 2,300 31, , ,494 46,405 12,116 14,504 5,884 7, BYAN REDUCE 18,050 10,450 3, , ,549 15,669 4,276 4,290 2,891 2, nc nc BUMI BUY 2,500 2,375 20, , ,050 42,321 13,538 13,773 6,009 5, (0.7) ITMG BUY 43,400 49,900 1, , ,940 24,672 6,978 7,537 5,136 5, nc nc PTBA BUY 20,800 26,600 2, , ,953 12,822 4,914 5,047 4,044 4, nc nc INCO HOLD 3,625 4,000 9, , ,645 12,183 4,607 5,592 3,411 4,209 (7.9) nc nc HRUM BUY 8,600 10,950 2, , ,952 10,444 3,302 3,826 2,257 2, nc nc ANTM HOLD 1,960 1,750 9, , ,590 10,953 2,287 2,421 1,917 1,980 (2.5) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,021 10,518 3,207 4,321 2,506 3, INDY BUY 2,650 3,200 5, , ,182 6, ,602 1, TINS HOLD 2,000 1,800 5, , ,045 8,658 1,267 1, ,057 (10.7) nc nc OIL & GAS N 110, ,857 54,466 9,571 11,120 7,342 8, PGAS BUY 3,650 4,400 24, , ,412 24,934 8,454 9,656 6,552 7, nc nc AKRA HOLD 3,800 3,150 3, , ,482 28, , nc nc MEDC BUY 2,300 3,200 3, , , PLANTATIONS N 93, ,247 44,065 12,023 13,210 7,954 8, AALI HOLD 22,050 22,000 1, , ,233 12,098 3,538 3,772 2,535 2, nc nc SIMP HOLD 1,420 1,500 15, , ,385 14,269 3,437 3,707 1,818 1, LSIP BUY 2,650 3,250 6, , ,735 4,993 2,064 2,229 1,773 1, nc nc SGRO BUY 3,475 4,100 1, , ,357 3, , nc nc BWPT BUY 1,520 1,750 4, , ,094 1, UNSP HOLD , , ,843 6,877 1,283 1, (22.1) GZCO BUY , , POULTRY OW 54, ,459 44,889 5,942 6,789 4,514 5, CPIN BUY 2,750 3,275 16, , ,020 23,994 4,180 4,840 3,466 4, nc nc JPFA ** 4,475 ** 2, , ,439 20,895 1,762 1,949 1,049 1, PROPERTY OW 94, ,537 33,538 7,623 9,230 5,162 6, BSDE HOLD 1,210 1,270 17, , ,171 3,896 1,057 1, , nc nc LPKR BUY , , ,960 5,692 1,154 1, ASRI HOLD , , ,906 1, nc CTRA BUY , , ,875 3, nc SMRA BUY 1,300 1,570 6, , ,604 3, APLN BUY , , ,330 5,142 1,164 1, ELTY REDUCE , , ,003 2, (13.7) SSIA REDUCE , , ,030 3, nc nc CTRP BUY , , nc KIJA BUY , , ,969 2, LPCK BUY 1,910 2, , ,091 1, SHIPPING N 1, ,009 1, WINS BUY , , ,009 1, TELCOS N 219, , ,115 31,589 35,016 16,259 18, TLKM ** 7,000 ** 20, , ,367 83,213 23,589 25,944 11,885 13, EXCL BUY 4,900 5,600 8, , ,366 21,774 4,948 5,761 3,201 4, ISAT REDUCE 5,300 4,500 5, , ,087 23,137 3,301 3,472 1,873 2, (9.4) BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2,992 (249) (160) (700) (679) 10.2 (3.0) (11.2) (11.5) (17.6) (20.7) TINPLATE N ,686 1, nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, nc nc TOLL ROAD N 35, ,660 7,565 3,341 3,923 2,171 2, CMNP BUY 2,000 2,000 2, , , nc nc JSMR BUY 4,675 5,450 6, , ,694 6,488 2,790 3,309 1,772 2, Market N OW(Weighted avg.) 2,591,236 2,568 1,164,147 1,318, , , , , Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 02/24/ :50 JN Corp Service Price Index (YoY) JAN 0.10% -0.20% 0.10% 02/24/ :35 CH MNI February Business Condition Survey 02/24/ :00 CH Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index 02/24/ :00 GE GDP nsa (YoY) 4Q F 1.50% % 02/24/ :00 GE Domestic Demand 4Q % 02/24/ :00 GE Construction Investment 4Q % 02/24/ :00 GE GDP wda (YoY) 4Q F 2.00% % 02/24/ :30 TH Foreign Reserves 17-Feb $179.2B 02/24/ :45 FR Consumer Confidence Indicator FEB /24/ :00 SP Producer Prices (YoY) JAN 4.30% % 02/24/ :20 TA Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY JAN % 02/24/ :00 IT Retail Sales (YoY) DEC % 02/24/ :00 TU Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY JAN % 02/24/ :30 UK GDP (YoY) 4Q P 0.80% % 02/24/ :30 UK Exports 4Q P 1.50% % 02/24/ :30 UK Imports 4Q P 0.10% % 02/24/ :30 UK Index of Services (MoM) DEC 0.10% % 02/24/ :00 MX Unemployment Rate JAN 5.06% % 02/24/ :55 US U. of Michigan Confidence FEB F /24/ :00 US New Home Sales JAN 315K K 02/24/ :00 US New Home Sales MoM JAN 2.60% % Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ FX reserves (USDb) Jan 2/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 1/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference Rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Jan 2/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time AGM Apexindo Pratama 2/27/12 10:00 AGM Benakat Petroleum Energy 2/29/12 10:00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 1/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 1/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 2/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, Q11 total 5,227 4 MBSS 4/6/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 4/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 5/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 5/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 5/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 6/9/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 6/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property Q11 total 5, TIFA 7/8/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 7/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 7/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 7/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 7/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/8/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 14, PADI 1/9/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 1/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 2/1/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas 30 Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Express Transindo Utama Transportation Pertamina Drilling Service Oil & gas services Geothermal Energy Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Aviation service Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Coal mining 1, Cipaganti group Transportation Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance MNC Sky Vision Media 2, Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Waskita Karya Construction Bahtera Niaga Internasional Shipping Telesindo Shop Telecommunication PLN Enjiniring Electricity Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Asuransi Mitra Maparya Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Bank Jatim Banks 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Mitraniaga Banks Hutama Karya Construction Toba Bara Sejahtera Mining 3, Angkasa Pura I Airport services GarudaFood Food & beverage Intan Baruprana Heavy equipment financing Mitratel Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indo Krakatau Wajatama Steel Bank Sumut Banks Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation total 39,528 Grand total 65,203 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 1/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 1/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 1/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 1/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 2/1/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 4/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 5/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 6/3/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 6/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 6/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 7/1/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 7/8/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 7/5/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 7/6/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 9/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/2/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/4/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/3/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/2/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/9/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 12,470 Grand total 53,117 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 4Q11 Results Round ups Operating Net No Company Code profit (IDRb) profit (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) 1 Bank Danamon BDMN 5,235 5, , ,336 3, , Xl Axiata EXCL 4,665 4, , ,830 3, , Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 Results relative to Bahana estimates and consensus Operating profit Net profit Above In line Below Above In line Below Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. EXCL EXCL EXCL EXCL BDMN BDMN BDMN BDMN Source: Company, Bahana, Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Construction, Toll Road ext 3601 Frederick Daniel Tanggela Research Analyst Coal Mining, Poultry ext 3603 Stifanus Sulistyo Small cap Research Analyst ext 3611 Irwan Budiarto Oil and Gas Research Analyst ext 3606 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Associate ext 3611 Isna Alfiathi Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

12 IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES This material was produced by Bahana Securities, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC. and elsewhere in the world by Bahana or an authorized affiliate of Bahana (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by Bahana, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Bahana or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Bahana or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of Bahana or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of Bahana or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report Bahana does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC. is distributing this document in the United States of America. Bahana Securities accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC.