Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Friday, 8 February 2013 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief SPOTLIGHT For details please refer to our separate report(s) Bumi Serpong Damai - Land Lord (BSDE-BUY-IDR1,360-TP:IDR1,860) Positive on new JV with Hongkong Land 2013 marketing sales of IDR7t, +64% y-y 5,389ha land bank means sustainability 37% 2013 earnings upgrade, 35% higher than consensus Outlook & recommendation: BUY with 16% raised TP to IDR1,860 TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS January s FX reserves dropped to USD108.8b Indonesia to have onshore fixing spot rate CORPORATE BBCA raised IDR1.97t through treasury stock sales TLKM eyes merger of its tower unit UNTR booked January Komatsu sales of 410 units, down 50% y-y LPKR reported FY12 marketing sales of IDR4.7t, +44% y-y ADHI to do a rights issue this year LPS: Two investors interested in acquiring Bank Mutiara ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (1.5) (0.4) 0.2 Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.2) (1.7) (2.0) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (%) EPS gwt exc. coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. coal (x) Total imports (%y-y) PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. coal (x) IDR/USD 9,697 9,250 9,200 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates IDX: 4,503.1 (+0.1%) Turnover: IDR4.1t (-14.3%) Foreign net buy: IDR2t (+354.3%) INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 23,177.0 (0.3) IDX (Indonesia) 4, KLCI (Malaysia) 1, (4.1) 4.3 KOSPI (Korea) 1,931.8 (0.2) (3.3) (3.6) Nikkei (Japan) 11,357.1 (0.9) PCOMP (Phil.) 6, SENSEX (India) 19,580.3 (0.3) SET (Thailand) 1,499.8 (0.0) SHCOMP (China) 2,418.5 (0.7) Shenzhen (China) STI (Singapore) 3,261.8 (0.5) TWSE (Taiwan) 7, VNI (Vietnam) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,601.1 (1.1) (1.1) 5.6 DAX (Germany) 7, (0.3) 12.4 Dow Jones (USA) 13,944.1 (0.3) FTSE 100 (UK) 6,228.4 (1.1) IBOV (Brazil) 58,372.5 (1.0) (4.2) (11.4) NASDAQ (USA) 3,165.1 (0.1) RTSI (Russia) 1,589.4 (0.4) 4.1 (2.6) S&P 500 (USA) 1,509.4 (0.2) ETF, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EIDO US (USD) 31.3 (0.1) TLK US (IDR) 9,595 (1.3) IIT US (IDR) 6,836 (1.5) BUMI LN (IDR) 53, (53.8) Coal (USD/t) 95.7 (0.6) 2.1 (19.0) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 2,918 (0.8) 2.3 (28.9) Copper (USD/t) 8,165 (0.5) 3.3 (3.4) Cotton (USD/t) 1,795 (0.4) 8.3 (13.9) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) (19.8) DOC (IDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1,672 (0.4) (0.2) (3.5) Iron ore (USD/mtn) Milk (USD/t) 383 (0.3) (4.4) 6.7 Nickel (USD/t) 18,107 (0.8) 6.5 (16.6) Oil (USD/barrel) 95.9 (1.0) 4.4 (2.9) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, (1.2) 1.2 Rubber (USD/t) 3,113 (0.1) 4.2 (18.0) Soybean oil (USD/t) 1,145 (1.0) 5.6 (1.2) Steel (USD/t) 666 (0.0) 4.5 (2.3) Sugar (USD/t) 582 (1.3) (2.7) 9.2 Tins (USD/t) 24,658 (0.7) 5.5 (3.1) Wheat (USD/t) 278 (0.4) (2.8) 4.0 CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (1.5) (1.0) IDR/USD 9,716 9, JPY/USD (21.6) SGD/USD (1.5) 0.5 JIBOR (%) (0.1) 0.1 BI rate (%) (0.3) TD 1 month (%) (0.1) (0.7) CDS (bps) (7.1) (10.7) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS January s FX reserves dropped to USD108.8b Bank Indonesia stated that Indonesia s January foreign exchange (FX) reserves dropped 3.5% m-m to USD108.8b compared to end December 2012 s level of USD112.8b on the back of the central bank s intervention in defending the IDR against the USD and overseas debt payments. Bahana: Going forward, we expect 2013 FX reserves to rise slightly to USD115b, helped by inflows coming from FDI and portfolio investment. (Jakarta Post) Indonesia to have onshore fixing spot rate Following the central bank s warning on the existing ban of IDR s non-deliverable-forward (NDF) activities, Bank Indonesia (BI) will support domestic banks to form an onshore IDR s fixing spot rate as a benchmark in the money market. IDR s fixing spot not only could be used for forward but also for other transactions such as external debt payments. Furthermore, BI will appoint several banks to contribute in the fixing of the spot quotations. Note that previously, domestic banks had tended to use spot fixing in the NDF market in Singapore for benchmark. Bahana: We see that this move will support IDR s stability going forward as onshore fixing spot rates will imply real condition on the domestic money market instead of offshore NDF which is usually prone to speculations. (Investor Daily, Jakarta Post) CORPORATE BBCA raised IDR1.97t through treasury stock sales Bank Central Asia (BBCA-BUY-IDR10,050-TP:IDR10,800) raised IDR1.97t (USD203m), releasing all of its total treasury stocks of 198.8m through private placement at IDR9,900/ share (1.4% discount to yesterday s share price). Previously, in August 2012 BBCA had also released 91.0m treasury stocks at IDR7,700/ share (1.2% discount) amounting to IDR701b. (Kontan, Investor Daily) TLKM eyes merger of its tower unit Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM-*-IDR9,650-TP:*) is considering to have a backdoor listing or merging Mitratel, its tower unit, with a listed tower company, including Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR-BUY- IDR25,600-TP:IDR27,000), Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG-IDR5,450-Not Rated) and Solusi Tunas Pratama (SUPR-IDR5,000-Not Rated). Currently, Mitratel manages around 3,000 towers and is in the process of acquiring around 14,000 towers from Telkomsel. (Jakarta Globe) *Under our restricted list UNTR booked January Komatsu sales of 410 units, down 50% y-y In January, United Tractors (UNTR-REDUCE-IDR19,000-TP:IDR17,000) booked Komatsu sales of 410 units, down 50% y-y on weak mining segment sales. However, this is already 96% higher than December 2012 level of 209 units on improved coal price to USD91/ton from USD82/ton in November and USD90/ton in December. Bahana: We expect full-year 2013 Komatsu sales to reach 5,600 units, down 10% y-y, requiring UNTR to book around 470 units monthly sales in the next 11 months. (Investor Daily) LPKR reported FY12 marketing sales of IDR4.7t, +44% y-y Strong 4Q12 marketing sales of IDR1.72t (+151% q-q) have supported LPKR (BUY-IDR1,020-TP:IDR1,280) to reach FY12 marketing sales of nearly IDR4.7t, +44% y-y. In 4Q12, major sales contributors were Kemang Village (IDR732b) and Lippo Cikarang (IDR556b). Bahana: Strong marketing sales of IDR7.9t bode well to support our F estimates. (Company, Bahana) ADHI to do a rights issue this year Adhi Karya (ADHI-BUY-IDR2,175-TP:IDR2,350) plans to do a rights issue, targeting IDR2t, at the end of this year. The management stated that they have obtained a green light from the House of Representatives to do the rights issue but is required to maintain the proportion of the government s ownership as the majority shareholder in the company. The proceeds will be used for capex and to fund the monorail project. Separately, ADHI is proposing for new routes for the monorail project and is currently waiting for approval from the governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo. The new routes proposed are East Bekasi Cawang (18 km), Cibubur - Cawang (18 km), and Cawang Kuningan (11 km). (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 LPS: Two investors interested in acquiring Bank Mutiara With the third phase of Bank Mutiara s (BCIC-NOT RATED-IDR50) divestment process having been opened from 21 January 2013 to 15 May 2013, The Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) has revealed that 2 investors have submitted letters of intent to acquire BCIC. LPS Financial Director, Mirza Mochtar, stated that the valuation of BCIC refers to LPS act article 42 where BCIC has to be acquired equivalent to LPS temporary capital placement of IDR6.76t. Mirza also mentioned that the acquirer of BCIC will be excluded from the new shareholding ownership limit for the next 20 years. Bahana: Based on BCIC s 2012 unaudited equity figure of IDR1.38t, the PBV valuation of this acquisition would be 4.9x. (Investor Daily, Kompas) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 2/7/2013 2/6/2013 CHANGE (%) Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 2, ,175 2, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP * * * Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 7, ,550 6, ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD 700 (7.9) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1, Waskita Karya WSKT BUY Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,640 1, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI * * * 4,275 4, Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,325 3, Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 10, ,050 9, Indika Energy INDY REDUCE 1,250 (15.5) 1,480 1, Astra International ASII HOLD 8, ,650 7, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,890 1, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY 980 (2.0) 1, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, ,020 1, Hero Supermarket HERO BUY 5, ,150 5, Indomobil Sukses International IMAS HOLD 5, ,350 5, Erjaya Swasembada ERAA BUY 3, ,875 2, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 7, ,000 5, J Resources Asia Pasifik PSAB BUY 8, ,875 3, Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,400 50, Unilever Indonesia UNVR BUY 24, ,300 22, IDX IDX 4,503 4, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 3,000 (24.1) 3,950 3, Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, ,230 1, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 10, ,800 8, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,150 8, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 3,800 (57.8) 9,000 9, Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN REDUCE 480 (3.0) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,340 1, Cardig Aero Service CASS BUY Charoen Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3,750 (2.6) 3,850 3, Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 4,800 (20.0) 6,000 6, Indocement INTP HOLD 25, ,550 21, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 8, ,050 8, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 6,500 (7.1) 7,000 7, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,450 5, Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 1,000 (10.7) 1,120 1, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,225 2, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 1, ,580 1, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,500 6, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI HOLD 6, ,050 6, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP BUY 1, ,140 1, Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 27, ,600 25, Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 17,000 (10.3) 18,950 19,000 (0.3) Bukit Asam PTBA REDUCE 12,500 (18.6) 15,350 15,400 (0.3) Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 25, ,900 19,000 (0.5) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 5, ,650 4,675 (0.5) Timah TINS REDUCE 1,000 (40.1) 1,670 1,680 (0.6) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 17, ,300 16,400 (0.6) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 29,750 (26.4) 40,400 40,800 (1.0) Gozco Plantations GZCO REDUCE 150 (21.5) (1.0) Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE (1.1) Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,820 1,840 (1.1) Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,200 2,225 (1.1) Bank Jatim BJTM BUY (1.2) Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY (1.3) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 730 (6.4) (1.3) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY 1, (1.3) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 4, ,625 3,675 (1.4) Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY 1, (1.4) Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1,000 (27.5) 1,380 1,400 (1.4) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,360 1,380 (1.4) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA BUY 1, ,360 1,380 (1.4) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 500 (24.2) (1.5) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD 160 (17.9) (1.5) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (1.5) Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (38.5) (1.5) Telkom Indonesia TLKM * * * 9,650 9,800 (1.5) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 5, ,750 4,825 (1.6) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,600 1,630 (1.8) Adaro Energy ADRO REDUCE 1,120 (28.7) 1,570 1,600 (1.9) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 8, ,200 5,300 (1.9) Indosat ISAT HOLD 6,700 (2.2) 6,850 7,000 (2.1) Wintermar WINS BUY (2.5) Sampoerna Agro SGRO HOLD 2,400 (1.0) 2,425 2,500 (3.0) Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,000 (31.6) 2,925 3,050 (4.1) Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,190 1,250 (4.8) Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2, ,150 2,300 (6.5) Source: Bloomberg *Under our restricted list PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Net profit (IDRb) Revenue (IDRb) EPS growth (%) Opt. profit (IDRb) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net gearing (%) P/BV (x) Yield (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,613 37,927 1,551 1,982 1,009 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA BUY , , ,543 36,662 1,276 1, , CASS BUY , , ,070 1, nc AUTOMOTIVE RELATED N 333, , ,330 22,650 24,720 21,413 24, ASII HOLD 7,650 8,500 40, , , ,496 20,207 22,031 19,384 22, IMAS HOLD 5,350 5,425 2, , ,052 24, , GJTL HOLD 2,200 2,400 3, , ,708 13,054 1,498 1,577 1,063 1, ASSA BUY , , , BANKS N 859, , ,773 77,518 90,236 62,160 72, na na na na BBCA BUY 10,050 10,800 24, , ,011 35,656 14,168 16,821 11,816 14, na na na na BMRI BUY 8,800 10,400 23, , ,958 49,807 19,240 22,574 15,104 17, na na na na BBRI HOLD 8,150 8,500 24, , ,061 51,096 21,280 24,015 17,811 20, na na na na BBNI * 4,275 * 18, , ,628 27,147 8,353 9,799 6,960 8, na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,000 7,000 9, , ,211 21,498 6,333 7,102 4,130 4, na na na na BTPN HOLD 4,750 5,400 5, , ,334 7,686 2,509 3,084 2,011 2, na na na na BBTN BUY 1,600 1,700 10, , ,369 6,478 1,913 2,320 1,403 1, na na na na BJBR HOLD 1,230 1,250 9, , ,325 5,074 1,626 1,907 1,301 1, na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,377 2,752 1,000 1, ,060 (20.9) na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,149 3,578 1,094 1, na na na na CEMENT OW 176, ,325 44,084 11,903 14,367 9,581 11, nc SMGR BUY 16,300 17,600 5, , ,699 23,710 5,911 7,330 4,809 5, nc INTP HOLD 21,550 25,300 3, , ,626 20,373 5,992 7,037 4,772 5, nc nc COAL UW 207, , ,811 28,184 21,624 14,625 15,040 (19.4) (24.1) ADRO REDUCE 1,570 1,120 31, , ,875 31,577 9,048 6,866 4,182 2,963 (16.3) (27.6) ITMG REDUCE 40,400 29,750 1, , ,232 20,365 5,575 4,145 5,559 5,560 (19.1) (25.0) nc nc PTBA REDUCE 15,350 12,500 2, , ,650 10,316 3,431 2,494 2,882 2,212 (6.6) (23.3) nc nc BYAN REDUCE 9,000 3,800 3, , ,176 11,199 1, (56.7) (36.7) HRUM REDUCE 6,000 4,800 2, , ,334 7,772 2,245 1,747 1,456 1,147 (1.7) (19.5) nc nc BUMI REDUCE , , ,553 31,573 4,590 3,917 (2,368) 1,013 na na na na 9.6 BORN REDUCE , , ,749 5,344 1,521 1, (60.3) (9.0) INDY REDUCE 1,480 1,250 5, , ,828 7, , (29.4) CONS. & TOLL ROADS OW 67, ,753 52,121 6,392 7,764 3,442 4, JSMR BUY 5,450 7,000 6, , ,718 6,970 2,802 3,513 1,761 2, WIKA BUY 1,640 1,900 6, , ,135 11, , nc nc WSKT BUY , , ,225 11, nc nc CMNP BUY 1,820 2,200 2, , , (4.8) (21.3) PTPP * 900 * 4, , ,479 8, TOTL BUY 1, , , ,111 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 2,175 2,350 1, , ,150 9, CONSUMER - DISCRE. OW 71, ,210 39,066 3,298 3,993 2,474 2, nc nc SCMA BUY 2,150 2,475 9, , ,187 2,547 1,153 1, ,063 (4.9) nc nc HERO BUY 5,150 5,400 3, , ,628 12, ACES HOLD , , ,271 4, nc nc MAPI BUY 6,500 7,750 1, , ,583 9, nc nc RALS HOLD 1,190 1,350 7, , ,460 8, nc nc RANC BUY 770 1,120 1, , ,081 1, nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 449, , ,957 24,986 28,193 16,542 18,853 (9.4) nc nc UNVR BUY 22,300 24,000 7, , ,264 31,764 6,404 7,069 4,845 5, nc nc GGRM HOLD 50,400 55,000 1, , ,129 52,903 5,731 6,539 3,829 4,453 (21.8) INDF BUY 6,550 7,000 8, , ,574 53,962 6,593 7,390 3,082 3, nc nc KLBF HOLD 1,120 1,000 50, , ,247 15,408 2,262 2,614 1,735 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 8,050 8,600 5, , ,649 23,582 2,934 3,259 2,178 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 3,325 3,950 4, , ,796 7, , nc nc ROTI HOLD 6,050 6,100 1, , ,124 1, nc HEAVY EQUIPMENT UW 72, ,938 66,334 8,176 7,740 5,364 5,569 (10.9) (2.1) UNTR REDUCE 18,950 17,000 3, , ,930 57,942 7,593 7,253 5,613 5,493 (10.9) (2.1) nc nc DOID HOLD , , ,008 8, (250) na (6.5) (26.8) 8.1 INDUSTRIAL ESTATES OW 20, ,830 10,176 2,400 3,558 1,876 2, BEST BUY 710 1,000 9, , , nc SSIA BUY 1,360 1,470 4, , ,384 4, , nc nc KIJA BUY , , ,451 2, LPCK BUY 3,625 4, , ,040 1, nc nc METALS UW 53, ,391 28,668 2,858 3,877 2,095 2,910 (65.1) INCO REDUCE 2,925 2,000 9, , ,978 9, , ,241 (81.3) ANTM REDUCE 1,380 1,000 9, , ,369 10, (55.9) (3.4) nc nc TINS REDUCE 1,670 1,000 5, , ,493 6, (47.9) (2.2) nc PSAB BUY 3,875 8, , ,551 1, na OIL & GAS N 133, ,437 65,692 12,633 13,356 8,444 9,486 (2.9) PGAS BUY 4,650 5,500 24, , ,298 30,651 9,558 10,382 7,502 8, nc nc AKRA REDUCE 3,950 3,000 3, , ,920 24, (71.7) MEDC HOLD 1,580 1,660 3, , , , ,267 2, (64.8) PLANTATIONS N 75, ,896 44,062 9,609 10,091 5,719 6, AALI BUY 18,900 25,000 1, , ,078 13,463 3,370 3,636 2,377 2,608 (1.2) nc nc SIMP BUY 1,140 1,200 15, , ,060 15,883 2,767 2,901 1,277 1,355 (29.7) LSIP BUY 2,225 2,500 6, , ,583 5,013 1,446 1,516 1,256 1,313 (26.2) nc nc BWPT BUY 1,340 1,700 4, , ,046 1, (2.4) SGRO HOLD 2,425 2,400 1, , ,972 3, (41.8) UNSP REDUCE , , ,720 4, (91.5) GZCO REDUCE , , (42.2) (9.8) POULTRY N 78, ,931 43,252 5,412 6,224 3,921 4, CPIN BUY 3,850 3,750 16, , ,688 23,751 3,673 4,246 2,899 3, nc JPFA BUY 7,000 6,500 2, , ,243 19,500 1,739 1,978 1,022 1, PROPERTY OW 103, ,421 28,980 7,289 9,422 5,416 6, LPKR BUY 1,020 1,280 23, , ,072 6,604 1,481 1,642 1,092 1, BSDE BUY 1,360 1,600 17, , ,544 4,423 1,381 1,779 1,212 1, nc nc SMRA BUY 1,890 2,300 7, , ,029 3, nc nc ASRI BUY , , ,268 3,132 1,181 1,672 1,003 1, nc nc CTRA BUY 920 1,020 15, , ,088 4, , nc nc APLN BUY , , ,613 4,847 1,315 1, CTRP BUY 810 1,170 6, , , SHIPPING N 1, ,107 1, WINS BUY , , ,107 1, STEEL UW 10, ,369 23, (92.8) KRAS REDUCE , , ,369 23, (92.8) TELCOS OW 278, , ,042 34,994 37,031 17,691 19, TLKM * 9,650 * 20, , ,237 81,334 25,729 27,245 13,043 14, EXCL BUY 5,200 8,000 8, , ,468 23,303 4,917 5,071 3,109 3, ISAT HOLD 6,850 6,700 5, ,943 24,027 2,486 2,124 1, (60.7) TOWR BUY 25,600 27,000 1, , ,158 2,556 1,180 1, ERAA BUY 2,875 3,500 2, , ,290 17, TELE BUY , , ,555 13, (1.3) (37.2) BTEL REDUCE , , ,437 2,562 (211) (131) (1,097) (959) 40.1 (12.6) (1.4) (1.6) nc (28.5) Market OW 3,006,969 2, ,289,543 1,427, , , , , Note: *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 01/30/ :00 SK Cyclical Leading Index Change Dec % 01/30/ :50 JN Retail Trade YoY Dec 0.30% % 01/30/ :50 JN Large Retailers' Sales Dec -1.00% % 01/30/ :00 SP GDP (Constant SA) (YoY) 4Q P % 01/30/ :00 HK Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY) Dec % 01/30/ :00 HK Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY) Dec % 01/30/ :00 IT Economic Sentiment Jan % 01/30/ :00 IT Business Confidence Jan % % 01/30/ :30 UK Net Consumer Credit Dec 0.2B B 01/30/ :30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Dec 0.5B B 01/30/ :30 UK Mortgage Approvals Dec 54.5K K 01/30/ :30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) Dec /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Jan /30/ :00 EC Business Climate Indicator Jan /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence Jan /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Jan F /30/ :00 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence Jan /30/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications /30/ :15 US ADP Employment Change Jan 165K K 01/30/ :30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q A 1.10% % 01/30/ :30 US Personal Consumption 4Q A Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ FX reserves (USDb) Sep 10/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 8/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q 5/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 3Q 10/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference Rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Sep 10/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time EGM SMRU IJ SMR Utama 2/8/13 10:00 EGM GDST IJ Gunawan Dianjaya Steel 2/12/13 15:00 EGM TKGA IJ Toko Gunung Agung 2/13/13 14:00 EGM PKPK IJ Perdana Karya Perkasa 2/15/13 14:00 AGM MLBI IJ Multi Bintang Indonesia 2/15/13 11:00 AGM META IJ Nusantara Infrastructure 2/18/13 10:00 EGM MYOH IJ Samindo Resources 2/19/13 10:00 EGM ALKA IJ Alakasa Industrindo 2/26/13 09:00 AGM BULL IJ Buana Listya Tama 2/27/13 10:00 AGM ROTI IJ Nippon Indosari Corpindo 2/28/13 10:00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Surya Toto Indonesia 6, % 12/25/ /27/2012 1/14/2013 TOTO IJ Akr Corporindo 4, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/16/2013 AKRA IJ Adaro Energy 1, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/15/2013 ADRO IJ Elang Mahkota Teknologi 4, % 1/2/2013 1/4/2013 1/16/2013 EMTK IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 05/14/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property NELY 09/28/12 Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping PALM 10/08/12 Provident Agro Plantation BSSR 11/08/12 Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal ASSA 11/12/12 Adi Sarana Armada Automotive WIIM 12/18/12 Wismilak Cigarettes WSKT 12/19/12 Waskita Karya Construction 1, total 10, BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management SEBA Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Sumut Banks Nobu National Bank Banks Bank Maspion Banks GarudaFood Consumer PLN Batam Energy Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Riau Baraharum Mining 5, Citra Borneo Indah Plantation 1, Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantation 1, Multi Agro Plantation Siba Surya Transportation Cipaganti group Transportation Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation Spindo Pipes manufacturer 1, total 33,502 Grand total 43,727 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 1H11 total 22, IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN 02/16/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, BSIM 06/25/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1, KIAS 02/24/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain RAJA 05/08/12 Rukun Raharja Energy SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, TRIO 06/26/12 Trikomsel Oke Retail SMMT 06/26/12 Golden Eagle Energy Energy ITTG 07/05/12 Leo Investments Financial MCOR 07/06/12 Bank Windu Kentjana International Banks SUPR 08/16/12 Solusi Tunas Pratama Towers BEKS 09/07/12 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks MDRN 10/29/12 Modern International Retail BBNT 11/19/12 Bank Tabungan Negara Banks 1, COWL 11/20/12 Cowell Development Construction BNLI 11/30/12 Bank Permata Banks 1, INPC 11/30/12 Bank Arta Graha International Banks MYOH 12/18/12 MYOH Technology Telecommunication BIPP 12/10/12 Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Property HOME 12/11/12 Hotel Mandarine Regency Property CNKO 12/14/12 Exploitasi Energi Indonesia Coal 2, SRAJ 12/19/12 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Shipping 1, INCF Amstelco Indonesia Financial 5, total 25,098 Grand total 65,745 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Property, Toll Road ext 3601 Irwan Budiarto Coal, Oil and Gas ext 3606 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Aditya Eka Prakasa Poultry ext 3603 Stifanus Sulistyo Small cap ext 3611 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Anthony Alexander Construction ext 3613 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3604 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso ext 2547 John M. Dasaad ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Listiana Kwang ext 2546 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES This material was produced by Bahana Securities, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC. and elsewhere in the world by Bahana or an authorized affiliate of Bahana (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by Bahana, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Bahana or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Bahana or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of Bahana or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. Bahana or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of Bahana or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report Bahana does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. Bahana or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC. is distributing this document in the United States of America. Bahana Securities accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11