BCAS Vista. Indonesia Morning Digest. 11 August 2017 RESEARCH. IDX: Turnover (IDRbn): 5,826 (+0.03%) 4,403 (-18.15%)
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- Emerald Weaver
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1 RESEARCH RESEARCH REPORT Cement Sector: A spark of volume recovery Facts: Extraordinary Jul-17 volume growth on consecutive anomaly Outlook: Moment of truth on Aug-17 volume Recommendation: Maintain NEUTRAL top pick is SMGR (Please refer to our research report) ROTI: The maestro of baking ROTI, the bread market leader in Indonesia Continual innovations and expansion ROTI s rights issue: initiate with BUY, TP IDR1,400 (Please refer to our research report) HEADLINE NEWS INDUSTRY OJK targets banking industry loan growth to reach 11% in 2017 Government to allow Hajji Fund for LRT project COMPANY BMRI allocates IDR25tn for acquisition AMNT has finalize the acquisition of Macmahon WTON to increase Lampung plant production capacity INDICES ASIA IDX: Turnover (IDRbn): Vol (US$ mn) IDX 5, LQ (0.13) Hang Seng 27,444 (1.13) ,266 KOSPI 2,359 (0.38) ,358 Nikkei ,730 (0.05) ,803 PCOMP 7,966 (0.25) SET 1, SHCOMP 3,262 (0.42) ,622 STI 3, TWSE 10,330 (1.34) ,116 EUROPE & USA DAX 12,014 (1.15) Dow Jones 21,844 (0.93) FTSE 100 7,390 (1.44) NASDAQ 6,217 (2.13) ,058 S&P 500 2,438 (1.45) ,853 ETF & ADR Last Chg (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) EIDO US (USD) (1.23) (1.27) 9.61 TLK US (USD) (0.85) COMMODITIES Last Last Chg (%) Chg (%) 5,826 (+0.03%) 4,403 (-18.15%) YTD (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) Brent (USD/b) 52 (1.52) (11.75) WTI (USD/bl) 49 (1.96) 8.95 (14.74) Coal (USD/ton) Copper (USD/mt) 6,423 (0.50) Gold (USD/toz) 1, Nickel (USD/mt) 10, Tin (USD/mt) 20, (3.79) Corn (USD/mt) 371 (3.95) (10.55) (2.37) Palm oil (MYR/mt) 2, (1.55) (17.25) Soybean (USD/bu) 940 (3.39) (9.53) (4.95) Wheat (USD/bsh) 469 (3.70) (18.34) 0.81 CURNCY & RATES Last 1D 1M 2016 MARKET 2017F 2018F MACRO 2016A 2017F IDR/USD 13,333 13,333 13,398 13,473 AUD/USD CAD/USD CNY/USD USD/EUR JPY/USD SGD/USD JIBOR (%) D Repo Rate (%) Y Bond (%) CDS - 5Y (bps) FUND FLOWS & SECTORAL TREND EPS growth (%) GDP Growth (%) Cons EPS growth (%) Govt Spending (%) (0.2) 7.0 P/E (x) Private Spending (%) P/E ex UNVR, HMSP (x) Investment (%) EV/EBITDA (x) GDP/capita (USD) 3,605 3,610 P/B (x) CPI (%) P/B ex UNVR, HMSP (x) BI 7-day RR (%) Yield (%) IDR/USD 13,473 13,547 Gearing ex Bank (%) Trade Bal (USDmn) 8,837 6,267 ROE (%) CAD (%) (1.8) (1.9) ROA (%) Fiscal Budget (%) (2.5) (2.5) Source: BCA Sekuritas Foreign Flows Last 1W 1M YTD In/(Out) (IDRbn) (66) (1,007) (10,101) 5,541 Sector Performance Last 1D (%) 1M (%) YTD (%) JAKAGRI Index 1,735 (0.02) (2.35) (6.91) JAKBIND Index 618 (0.41) (0.10) JAKCONS Index 2, (3.72) 2.90 JAKFIN Index 982 (0.13) JAKINFRA Index JAKMIND Index 1,357 (1.18) (8.03) (0.99) JAKMINE Index 1, JAKPROP Index 508 (0.09) 3.56 (1.98) JAKTRAD Index Page 1 of 8
2 HEADLINE NEWS INDUSTRY Financial Services Authority (OJK) targets banking industry loan growth to reach 11% in OJK targets banking loan growth to reach 11% in 2017, lower than previous target of 13%. Previously Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded industry loan growth indication at 7.6% YoY in Jun-17, decelerated from 8.6% in May-17 and from 8.9% YoY in Jun-16. (Investor Daily) Comment: This is in-line with our expectation of loan full-year target of 10-11% in However, for 2018 we expect loan growth to slightly pick up at 12-13% YoY, moving in line with the expected improving GDP growth to 5.3% from an estimated 5.1% this year. Government to allow Hajji Fund for LRT project Government opens possibility of Haji fund to be invested in several infrastructure projects, including LRT, power generator and toll road. The Head of National Development Planning Board (Bappenas), Bambang Brodjonegoro, revealed that Jabodetabek LRT project might be funded by Islamic bond (Sukuk). He added that Bappenas has suggested Haji Financing Management Authority to invest in Islamic financial instrument rather than directly investment to infrastructure. Haji fund investment for infrastructure projects should be assessed by Financial Service Authority (OJK) and Indonesia Council of Ulama (MUI). (Bisnis Indonesia) COMPANY Bank Mandiri (BMRI) allocates IDR25tn for acquisition BMRI has allocated IDR25tn to acquire bank abroad, multifinance and microfinance companies. BMRI is still looking for opportunity in acquiring multifinance companies while for microfinance company, BMRI plans to merge target company with Bank Mantap in the future. (Investor Daily) Comment: We believe BMRI still has ability to do aggressive inorganic expansion given current CAR stood at 21% at the end of Jun-17. AMNT has finalize the acquisition of Macmahon Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMNT) has finalized the acquisition process of Macmahon Holding Limited. According to the press release Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), AMNT currently holds the majority stake on Macmahon with 44.3% stake ownership. The transactions is estimated at around AUD19.4mn (Bisnis Indonesia) WTON to increase Lampung plant production capacity WTON targets to increase production capacity in South Lampung plant, and to be completed in Nov-17. WTON s director of Technical and management system revealed that the company is currently developing new production line, the 27ha land plant in South Lampung. (Investor daily) Comment: We estimate WTON s total production capacity to reach 3.2mn ton/year in FY17. Page 2 of 8
3 CORPORATE ACTION Date Ticker Company Event Desc 25-Jul-17 ENRG Energi Mega Persada Reverse Stock Ratio: 1 (New) : 8 (Old), Cum Date 25 Jul 2017, Trading Date 26 Jul Jul-17 TMPO Tempo Inti Media EGM Venue: Tempo Building Lt 5, Jakarta Selatan, at am 25-Jul-17 YPAS Yanaprima Hastapersada EGM Venue: Ruko Golden Palace, Surabaya, at am 26-Jul-17 TAMU Pelayaran Tamarin Samudra AGM Venue: Hotel Novotel Jl Gajah Mada, Jakarta, at am 26-Jul-17 TGRA Terregra Asia Energy AGM Venue: Lippo Puri Tower #901, ST Moritz CBD Jakarta Barat, at am 26-Jul-17 TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Rights Issue Ratio: 4 (New) : 47 (Old), Price Rp- per share, Cum Date 26 Jul 2017, Ex Date 27 Jul Jul-17 WSBP Waskita Beton Precast EGM Venue: Ruang Serbaguna, Waskita Building Lt 11, Jakarta, at am 27-Jul-17 MPMX Mitra Pinasthika Mustika EGM Venue: Lippo Kuningan Lt 26, Jakarta, at pm 28-Jul-17 CNTX Century Textile Industry EGM Venue: Ruang Cendrawasih, CNTX Head Office, Ciracas, Jakarta Timur, at am 31-Jul-17 BTEK Bumi Teknokultura Unggul EGM Venue: Ruang Seminar I Galeri BEI, BEI Tower 2 Lt 1, Jakarta, at am 31-Jul-17 ELTY Bakrieland Development AGM Venue: The Bridge Function Room, Hotel Aston Rasuna, Jakarta, at am 01-Aug-17 BULL Buana Listya Tama AGM Venue: Sampoerna Startegic Square, North Tower, Ruang Anggrek 1-3 Lt 3A, Jakarta, at am 01-Aug-17 LMAS Limas Indonesia Makmur AGM Venue: Audiorium Gedung Sequis Center Lt 11, Jakarta, at am 07-Aug-17 Ayana Land International IPO IPO 3 mn per shares 09-Aug-17 ULTJ Ultrajaya Milk Industry Stock Split Ratio: 4 (New) : 1 (Old), Cum Date 9 Aug 2017, Trading Date 10 Aug Aug-17 ITMA Sumber Energi Andalan AEGM Venue: Jakarta, at am 15-Aug-17 EXCL XL Axiata EGM Venue: Graha XL Lantai 2, Jl DR Ide Anak Agung Lot E4-7 No 1 Mega Kuningan, Jakarta, at am 15-Aug-17 PLIN Plaza Indonesia Realty EGM Venue: Ruang Bromo, Hotel Grand Hyatt, Jakarta 18-Aug-17 SAFE Steady Safe AEGM Venue: Gd Kana 2, Jl RO Soeroso No 24, Jakarta, at am 22-Aug-17 MAYA Bank Mayapada Internationa EGM Venue: Mayapada Tower 2 Ruang Auditorium Lt 9, Jakarta, at pm 23-Aug-17 BYAN Bayan Resources EGM Venue: Mercantile Athletic Club WTC Building Lt 18, Jakarta, at pm 24-Aug-17 BNGA Bank CIMB Niaga AGM Venue: Ruang Sasando - Graha CIMB Niaga Lt M, Jakarta, at pm 25-Aug-17 ARTA Arthavest EGM Venue: Ruang Meeting Crystal Lt 3 Hotel Red Top, Jakarta, at am 25-Aug-17 FPNI Lotte Chemical Titan EGM Venue: Aug-17 HERO Hero Supermarket EGM Venue: Sep-17 GEMS Golden Energy Mines EGM Venue: Ruang Paseo Sinar Mas Land Plaza Tower 2 Lt 39, Jakarta, at pm 04-Sep-17 SILO Siloam International HospitalsEGM Venue: Hotel Aryaduta Lippo Village, Tangerang, at am 07-Sep-17 CASS Cardig Aero Services EGM Venue: Ruang Serbaguna Menara Cardig lt 4, Jakarta, at am 08-Sep-17 BSIM Bank Sinarmas EGM Venue: Ballroom Plaza Sinarmas Lt 9, Jakarta, at am 08-Sep-17 SIAP Sekawan Intipratama AEGM Venue: Rumah RANADI Cilandak, Jakarta, at am 09-Sep-17 BCIP Bumi Citra Permai EGM Venue: Ruang Seminar Bursa Efek Indonesia, Jakarta, at am 10-Sep-17 SDPC Millennium Pharmacon Inter EGM Venue: Hotel Century Park Senayan, Jakarta, at pm 11-Sep-17 DGIK Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring EGM Venue: Jakarta, at am Page 3 of 8
4 Dividend Ticker Company Amount (IDR) Cum Date Ex Date Payment Date AKPI Argha Karya Prima Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 ASRI Alam Sutera Realty Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 BNBA Bank Bumi Arta Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 CLPI Colorpak Indonesia Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 IPOL Indopoly Swakarsa Industry Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 JKON Jaya Konstruksi Manggala Pratama Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 TOWR Sarana Menara Nusantara Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 FAST Fast Indonesia Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 APII Arita Prima 3, Jun Jun Jul-17 BEST Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Jun Jun Jul-17 JRPT Jaya Real Property Jun Jun Jul-17 IDPR Indonesia Pondasi Raya Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 PANS Panin Sekuritas Jun Jun-17 7-Jul-17 AMFG Asahimas Flat Glass Jun Jun Jul-17 PUDP Pudjiadi Prestige Jun Mar Jul-17 SGRO Sampoerna Agro Jun Jun Jul-17 BIRD Blue Bird Jun Jun Jul-17 APLN Agung Podomoro Land Jun Jun Jul-17 INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Jun Jun Jul-17 PBSA Paramita Bangun Sarana Jun Jun Jul-17 PDES Destinasi Tirta Nusantara Jun Jun Jul-17 RDTX Roda Vivatex Jun Jun Jul-17 TKIM Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Jun Jun Jul-17 ABDA Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Jun Jun Jul-17 AHAP Asuransi Harta Aman Pratama Jun Jun Jul-17 ASDM Asuransi Dayin Mitra Jun Jun Jul-17 EMDE Megapolitan Developments Jun Jun Jul-17 JTPE Jasuindo Tiga Perkasa Jun Jun Jul-17 KIJA* Kawasan Industri Jababeka Jun Jun Jul-17 MYOR Mayora Indah Jun Jun Jul-17 RUIS Radiant Utama Interinsco Jun Jun Jul-17 AMIN Ateliers Mecaniques D'Indonesie Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 CTRA Ciputra Development Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 TRST Trias Sentosa Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 BATA Sepatu Bata Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 ISSP Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 SMRA Summarecon Agung Jun-17 3-Jul Jul-17 TELE Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 DPNS Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 GGRM Gudang Garam 2, Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 IMAS Indomobil Sukses International Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 IMJS Indomobil Multi Jasa Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 IMPC Impack Pratama Industri Jul-17 4-Jul Jul-17 CASS Cardig Aero Services Jul-17 5-Jul Jul-17 ERAA Erajaya Swasembada Jul-17 5-Jul Jul-17 GPRA Perdana Gapuraprima Jul-17 5-Jul Jul-17 UNVR Unilever Indonesia Jul-17 6-Jul Jul-17 GJTL Gajah Tunggal Jul-17 6-Jul Jul-17 INAI Indal Aluminium Industry Jul-17 6-Jul Jul-17 MAIN Malindo Feedmil Jul-17 6-Jul Jul-17 MDLN Modernland Realty Jul-17 6-Jul Jul-17 ASBI Asuransi Bintang Jul Jul Jun-17 MTDL Metrodata Electronic Jul Jul Jul-17 ULTJ Ultra Jaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Jul Jul-17 1-Aug-17 MNCN Media Nusantara Citra Jul Jul-17 2-Aug-17 BMTR Global Mediacom Jul Jul-17 3-Aug-17 DART Duta Anggada Realty Jul Jul Aug-17 AKRA AKR Corporindo Aug-17 2-Aug Aug-17 SMSM Selamat Sempurna Aug-17 7-Aug Aug-17 GEMS Golden Energy Mines Aug-17 8-Aug Aug-17, IDX, BCA Sekuritas Estimate, *Dividend amount in USD **Stock dividend Page 4 of 8
5 1H17 Actual vs Estimates Ticker 1H2017 Net Profit FY17 Estimate (IDRtn) (IDRtn) % 1H17 to FY17E Remarks AALI % below ACES % above ADHI % in line ASII % in line ASRI % above BBCA % - BBNI % in line BBRI % in line BBTN % in line BDMN % above BMRI % above BNGA % above BSDE % above CPIN % below DMAS % below ERAA % below EXCL % below GGRM % below HMSP % below ICBP % in line INCO* (21.5) 0.1 n.a. below INDF % in line INTP % below ISAT % below JPFA % below JSMR % in line KIJA % below KLBF % in line LPCK % in line LPPF % in line LSIP % above MAIN % below MAPI % in line MNCN % below MPPA (0.2) % below PTBA % above PTPP % above SGRO % in line RALS % in line SCMA % in line SIDO % below SIMP % below SMBR % below SMGR % below SMRA % below SSIA % above TELE % below TLKM % in line ULTJ % in line UNTR % in line UNVR % in line WSKT % above Number of companies 52, BCA Sekuritas, Companies *currency in USDmn Page 5 of 8
6 Ticker Rating CP (IDR) TP (IDR) Mkt cap (IDR bn) Index Weight Free float (%) ADTV (IDRbn) Rev growth (%) OP growth (%) Net Profit (IDRbn) EPSG (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) Div yield (%) ROE (%) 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F Automotive (Neutral) - Pandu Anugrah (pandu.anugrah@bcasekuritas.co.id) ASII HOLD 7,925 8, , ,656 22, Banking (Overweight) - Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bcasekuritas.co.id), Willy Suwanto (willy.suwanto@bcasekuritas.co.id), Prasetya Gunadi (prasetya.gunadi@bcasekuritas.co.id) BBCA - 18, , ,799 25, NA NA BBNI BUY 7,275 8, , ,289 15, NA NA BBRI BUY 15,000 17, , ,936 32, NA NA BBTN BUY 2,740 3,100 29, ,072 3, NA NA BDMN HOLD 5,500 5,100 52, ,470 5, NA NA BJBR HOLD 2,840 2,300 27, ,936 2, NA NA BMRI BUY 13,325 15, , ,045 23, NA NA BNGA BUY 1,385 1,400 34, ,055 3, NA NA PNBN HOLD 1,085 1,100 26, ,618 2, NA NA Sector 1,450, , , , Cement (Neutral) - Nyoman Prabawa (nyoman.prabawa@bcasekuritas.co.id) INTP HOLD 18,875 18,700 69, (8.6) 13.7 (46.1) ,000 2,811 (48.4) SMBR SELL 3, , (48.9) (46.8) SMGR HOLD 10,900 11,600 64, (25.8) ,563 3,986 (43.3) Sector 165, (34.9) ,701 6,998 (45.8) Coal (Neutral) - Aditya E Prakasa (aditya.prakasa@bcasekuritas.co.id) ADRO BUY 1,850 2,150 59, ITMG HOLD 20,150 20,600 22, PTBA BUY 13,475 17,000 31, ,779 4, Sector 112, ,799 12, Cigarette (Neutral) - Jennifer Frederika Yapply (jennifer.yapply@bcasekuritas.co.id) GGRM BUY 66,900 87, , (8.2) ,329 8,358 (5.2) HMSP HOLD 3,420 4, , (7.7) ,070 13,571 (5.5) Sector 526, (7.9) ,399 21,929 (5.4) Consumer (Neutral) - Jennifer Frederika Yapply (jennifer.yapply@bcasekuritas.co.id), Willy Suwanto (willy.suwanto@bcasekuritas.co.id) ICBP BUY 8,300 10,400 96, ,988 4, INDF HOLD 8,450 9,400 74, (0.6) ,460 4, KLBF HOLD 1,740 1,800 81, ,487 2, ROTI BUY 1,220 1,400 6, (30.0) (36.4) SIDO BUY , (7.0) ULTJ BUY 1,235 5,400 14, UNVR HOLD 48,025 51, , ,044 7, Sector 646, ,404 21, Sector excl UNVR 280, ,360 13, Construction & Toll Road (Overweight) - Michael Ramba (michael.ramba@bcasekuritas.co.id) ADHI BUY 2,090 2,800 7, PTPP BUY 3,000 5,200 18, ,538 1, WIKA BUY 2,060 3,600 18, ,286 1, WSKT BUY 2,310 3,700 31, ,545 2, WTON BUY 590 1,100 5, JSMR BUY 5,575 6,200 40, ,191 2, Sector 121, ,440 9, Heavy Equipment (Neutral) - Pandu Anugrah (pandu.anugrah@bcasekuritas.co.id) UNTR BUY 30,425 33, , ,300 7, Hospital (Overweight) - Jennifer Frederika Yapply (jennifer.yapply@bcasekuritas.co.id) MIKA BUY 2,250 2,250 32, SILO SELL 9,850 10,300 12, Sector 45, Industrial Estate (Overweight) - Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bcasekuritas.co.id) BEST BUY , DMAS BUY , (38.5) 32.3 (45.2) (37.5) KIJA BUY , LPCK BUY 4,880 6,400 3, (5.8) 28.3 (16.0) (14.9) (0.1) SSIA BUY , Sector 26, ,347 2, Page 6 of 8
7 Ticker Rating CP (IDR) TP (IDR) Mkt cap (IDR bn) Index Weight Free float (%) ADTV (IDRbn) Rev growth (%) OP growth (%) Net Profit (IDRbn) EPSG (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) Div yield (%) ROE (%) 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F Media (Overweight) - Jennifer Frederika Yapply (jennifer.yapply@bcasekuritas.co.id) MNCN BUY 1,515 2,100 21, (0.7) ,427 1, SCMA BUY 2,450 2,700 35, ,609 1, Sector 57, ,036 3, Metal & Mining (Underweight) - Aditya E Prakasa (aditya.prakasa@bcasekuritas.co.id) ANTM BUY , (146.4) INCO HOLD 2,610 2,520 25, TINS BUY 840 1,360 6, Sector 49, , Oil & Gas (Neutral) - Nyoman Prabawa (nyoman.prabawa@bcasekuritas.co.id) PGAS BUY 2,210 3,160 53, (0.1) MEDC BUY 2,820 4,600 9, Sector 62, ,495 9, Plantation (Overweight) - Nyoman Prabawa (nyoman.prabawa@bcasekuritas.co.id) AALI BUY 15,150 18,500 29, (0.9) 27.2 (4.8) 2,255 2, (2.8) LSIP BUY 1,395 1,800 9, SGRO BUY 2,000 2,300 3, (23.9) SIMP BUY , , Sector 50, ,221 4, Poultry (Neutral) - Johanes Prasetia (johanes.prasetia@bcasekuritas.co.id) CPIN HOLD 2,810 2,830 46, (7.9) 9.9 2,776 3, JPFA BUY 1,140 1,590 13, (17.5) 8.8 1,633 1,898 (24.3) MAIN HOLD , (47.0) (64.3) Sector 61, (13.9) 9.4 4,511 5,204 (1.4) Property Residential (Neutral) - Michael Ramba (michael.ramba@bcasekuritas.co.id) ASRI BUY , BSDE BUY 1,850 2,400 35, ,713 2, CTRA BUY 1,160 1,960 21, ,195 1, SMRA HOLD 1,095 1,050 15, Sector 79, ,085 5, Retails (Overweight) - Johanes Prasetia (johanes.prasetia@bcasekuritas.co.id) ACES BUY 1,085 1,250 18, LPPF BUY 10,850 12,950 31, ,091 2, MAPI BUY 6,800 7,325 11, MPPA HOLD , (130.6) (61.5) (87) (80) NA (6.3) (35.3) (37.7) (3.1) (3.1) RALS BUY 960 1,150 6, Sector 71, ,507 3, Telecommunication Sector (Overweight) - Aditya E Prakasa (aditya.prakasa@bcasekuritas.co.id) EXCL BUY 3,450 4,150 36, NA (13.9) ISAT BUY 6,750 8,825 36, ,626 2, TLKM BUY 4,710 5, , ,273 25, Sector 548, ,254 28, Telecommunication Retail (Overweight) - Aditya E Prakasa (aditya.prakasa@bcasekuritas.co.id) ERAA BUY , TELE BUY 1,220 1,590 8, Sector 10, Tower Telco (Overweight) - Aditya E Prakasa (aditya.prakasa@bcasekuritas.co.id) TOWR BUY 4,450 5,150 45, ,392 3, Stock universe 4,566, , , , Stock universe exc HMSP UNVR 3,802, , , , Page 7 of 8
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