Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Monday, 11 February 2013 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,491.3 (-0.3%) Turnover: IDR4.0t (-14.3%) Foreign net sell: IDR936b (Net buy: IDR2t) CORPORATE FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Bank Mandiri - Strategic & solid Forming New Bank Sinar Harapan to enter the pension segment Aggressive micro penetration with 2013 growth target of 40% Outlook: NIM expansion on higher-yielding earnings assets Recommendation & valuation: Reiterate BUY on 2.3x 2013 P/BV Bank Central Asia - Treasury stock divestment Outlook: Higher CAR and BVPS post divestment Recommendation & valuation: Cut to HOLD on 11% upside potential TODAY S NEWS POLITICS SBY takes over Demokrat leadership ECONOMICS December 2012 broad money growth slowed to 14.9% y-y BI: Inflation remains on track despite floods in January BI: Elections to provide additional growth of 0.2% Govt to issue USD1.04b global sukuk BOURSE Ministry of SOEs will prioritize subsidiaries of SOEs for IPOs Foreign companies to acquire 8 local companies CORPORATE Ministry of The Bakrie Group to sell stakes in VIVA ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (1.5) (0.4) 0.2 Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.2) (1.7) (2.0) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (%) EPS gwt exc. coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. coal (x) Total imports (%y-y) PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. coal (x) IDR/USD 9,697 9,250 9,200 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 23, IDX (Indonesia) 4,491.3 (0.3) KLCI (Malaysia) 1, (3.9) 4.5 KOSPI (Korea) 1, (2.3) (2.6) Nikkei (Japan) 11,153.2 (1.8) PCOMP (Phil.) 6,458.7 (0.0) SENSEX (India) 19,484.8 (0.5) SET (Thailand) 1,497.3 (0.2) SHCOMP (China) 2, Shenzhen (China) STI (Singapore) 3, TWSE (Taiwan) 7, VNI (Vietnam) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3, DAX (Germany) 7, Dow Jones (USA) 13, FTSE 100 (UK) 6, IBOV (Brazil) 58, (4.0) (8.6) NASDAQ (USA) 3, RTSI (Russia) 1,588.0 (0.1) 4.0 (0.9) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ETF, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EIDO US (USD) TLK US (IDR) 9, IIT US (IDR) 6, BUMI LN (IDR) 57, (49.9) Coal (USD/t) (18.7) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 2,893 (0.9) 1.4 (30.4) Copper (USD/t) 8, (3.4) Cotton (USD/t) 1, (11.7) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 860 (0.3) 6.2 (21.8) DOC (IDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1,667 (0.3) (0.5) (3.2) Iron ore (USD/mtn) Milk (USD/t) 383 (0.1) (4.5) 6.6 Nickel (USD/t) 18, (14.7) Oil (USD/barrel) 95.8 (0.1) 4.3 (3.0) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, (1.2) 1.2 Rubber (USD/t) 3,091 (0.7) 3.4 (19.7) Soybean oil (USD/t) 1,130 (1.3) 4.3 (2.4) Steel (USD/t) (2.3) Sugar (USD/t) 579 (0.6) (3.2) 8.5 Tins (USD/t) 24, (2.0) Wheat (USD/t) (2.6) 8.6 CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (1.3) (1.3) IDR/USD 9,670 9, JPY/USD (19.4) SGD/USD (1.3) 1.9 JIBOR (%) (0.1) 0.4 BI rate (%) (0.3) TD 1 month (%) (0.1) (0.7) CDS (bps) (8.7) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 POLITICS SBY takes over Demokrat leadership SBY has taken over leadership of Demokrat Party following the party s declining reputation due to internal conflicts and graft scandals. SBY stated that he will assume full control of the party until its reputation is restored. However, he did not dismiss Anas Urbanigrum as the party s chairman or as the deputy of the party s assembly, but relieved him of his duties (non-active) to allow him to focus on his legal quagmire. (Jakarta Post) ECONOMICS December 2012 broad money growth slowed to 14.9% y-y Bank Indonesia stated that Indonesia s broad money supply (M2) growth declined to 14.9% y-y compared to previous month growth of 17.4% y-y despite year-end holidays and Christmas festivities. (Jakarta Globe) BI: Inflation remains on track despite floods in January Bank Indonesia (BI) expects that Indonesia s 2013 inflation will remain on track, ranging 3.5%-5.5% despite floods hitting the Greater Jakarta, causing inflation in January to jump to 1.03% m-m. Bahana: We concur with BI s expectation as we see 2013 inflation to remain manageable at 4.95% y-y. (Jakarta Post) BI: Elections to provide additional growth of 0.2% Bank Indonesia stated that general elections will provide additional economic growth by at least 0.2% on the back of higher private spending to support political moves. (Investor Daily) Govt to issue USD1.04b global sukuk To finance 2013 state budget deficit, the government plans to issue around USD1.04b global sukuk (Islamic bond) in 2H13. (Bisnis Indonesia) BOURSE Ministry of SOEs will prioritize subsidiaries of SOEs for IPOs The Ministry of SOEs will push subsidiaries of SOEs for IPOs starting The list of subsidiaries are as follows: Company Parent Company Free float Daya Mitra Telekomunikasi TLKM 20 Sigma Citra Caraka TLKM 20 Garuda Maintenance Facility GIAA - Aero Wisata GIAA - Krakatau Wajatama KRAS Pertamina Gas (Pertagas) Pertamina - Pertamina Geothermal Energy Pertamina - Pertamina Drilling Services Indonesia Pertamina - PLN Batam PLN - Prima Layanan Nasional Enjiniring PLN - Indonesia Power PLN - Pembangkit Listrik Jawa Bali PLN - Multi Terminal Indonesia Pelindo II - Pengembang Pelabuhan Mandiri Pelindo II - Bank Syariah Mandiri BMRI - Wika Beton WIKA - Wika Realty WIKA - Source: Bisnis Indonesia PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 Foreign companies to acquire 8 local companies In 2013, foreign companies to acquire 8 local companies, translating to IDR104t or USD10.9b: No Company Sector Investor Potential investor Amount (USDm) Progress 1 Matahari Putra Retail Temasek group Retail Prima 2 Simba Indosnack Makmur F&B Private equity Creador F&B 3 Bank Danamon Bank DBS Bank of Singapore 4 Rabobank Indonesia 5 Indomobil Sukses Makmur 6 Matahari Department Store Bank Commmonweal th, Bank of Australia, ICBC, Qatar National Bank Automotive Gallant Ventures Retail AEON, Jepang Central Group, Thailand American International Group, Temasek subsidiary 7 Panin Life Insurance Dai Ichi Insurance, Fukoku Mutual Life 7, (waiting for BI approval) Bank 400 In progress Bank 1,200 1Q13 Automotive 1,500 In progress Retail Insurance 8 Retower Asia via Telco Northstar Centin Online group Total 10,860 Source: Investor Daily CORPORATE 44 1Q13 Telco Ministry of The Bakrie Group to sell stakes in VIVA The Bakrie Group is reportedly in talks with three local companies, namely MNC Group, CT Corp and Elang Mahkota Teknologi (EMTK-NR-IDR4,050), to sell its majority ownership in Visi Media Asia (VIVA-NR-IDR560) to help finance a plan to buy back coal assets from Bumi Plc. However, VIVA s chief executive Erick Tohir stated that he was unaware of this plan. (Reuters) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 2/8/2013 2/7/2013 CHANGE (%) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,980 1, XL Axiata EXCL BUY 8, ,400 5, Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 27, ,550 25, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 2, ,250 2, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 730 (8.8) Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2, ,200 2, United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 17,000 (11.7) 19,250 18, Gozco Plantations GZCO REDUCE 150 (22.7) Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (39.4) Cardig Aero Service CASS BUY Astra International ASII HOLD 8, ,750 7, Charoen Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3,750 (3.8) 3,900 3, AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 3,000 (25.0) 4,000 3, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, ,030 1, Hero Supermarket HERO BUY 5, ,200 5, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,500 5, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 7, ,050 6, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 7, ,600 6, Indosat ISAT HOLD 6,700 (2.9) 6,900 6, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 10, ,850 8, Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,830 1, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 29,750 (26.7) 40,600 40, Adaro Energy ADRO REDUCE 1,120 (28.7) 1,570 1, Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 25, ,900 18, Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 3,800 (57.8) 9,000 9, Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY 1, Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD 160 (17.9) Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 4,800 (20.0) 6,000 6, Indomobil Sukses International IMAS HOLD 5, ,350 5, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 1, ,580 1, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,500 6, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP * * * Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,190 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA BUY 1, ,360 1, Telkom Indonesia TLKM * * * 9,650 9, Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,325 3, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY 980 (2.0) 1,000 1, Wintermar WINS BUY IDX IDX 4,491 4,503 (0.3) Bukit Asam PTBA REDUCE 12,500 (18.3) 15,300 15,350 (0.3) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI * * * 4,250 4,275 (0.6) Timah TINS REDUCE 1,000 (39.8) 1,660 1,670 (0.6) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,630 1,640 (0.6) Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 8, ,000 8,050 (0.6) Indocement INTP HOLD 25, ,400 21,550 (0.7) Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1,000 (27.0) 1,370 1,380 (0.7) Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI HOLD 6, ,000 6,050 (0.8) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP BUY 1, ,130 1,140 (0.9) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 17, ,150 16,300 (0.9) Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,900 50,400 (1.0) Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 10, ,950 10,050 (1.0) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN REDUCE 480 (2.0) (1.0) Sampoerna Agro SGRO HOLD 2, ,400 2,425 (1.0) Waskita Karya WSKT BUY (1.1) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1, (1.1) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,200 2,225 (1.1) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,050 8,150 (1.2) Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY (1.2) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, (1.2) Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY (1.3) J Resources Asia Pasifik PSAB BUY 8, ,825 3,875 (1.3) ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD 700 (6.7) (1.3) Unilever Indonesia UNVR BUY 24, ,000 22,300 (1.3) Indika Energy INDY REDUCE 1,250 (14.4) 1,460 1,480 (1.4) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 4, ,575 3,625 (1.4) Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY (1.4) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 6,500 (5.8) 6,900 7,000 (1.4) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,340 1,360 (1.5) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,320 1,340 (1.5) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 500 (23.1) (1.5) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (1.5) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 5, ,675 4,750 (1.6) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY (1.6) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 5, ,575 4,650 (1.6) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, ,210 1,230 (1.6) Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,000 (30.4) 2,875 2,925 (1.7) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,570 1,600 (1.9) Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY (2.1) Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE (2.2) Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,150 2,200 (2.3) Bank Jatim BJTM BUY (2.4) Erjaya Swasembada ERAA BUY 3, ,800 2,875 (2.6) Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 1,000 (8.3) 1,090 1,120 (2.7) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY 1, (3.9) Source: Bloomberg *Under our restricted list PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Weekly) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET Up/(Downside) PRICE Potential (%) 2/8/2013 2/1/2013 CHANGE (%) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 27, ,550 19, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 7, ,600 5, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 2, ,250 2, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 2, ,980 1, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, ,190 1, Astra International ASII HOLD 8, ,750 7, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP * * * Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1, AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 3,000 (25.0) 4,000 3, Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (39.4) Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,000 (30.4) 2,875 2, Charoen Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3,750 (3.8) 3,900 3, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 730 (8.8) Hero Supermarket HERO BUY 5, ,200 5, Indomobil Sukses International IMAS HOLD 5, ,350 5, XL Axiata EXCL BUY 8, ,400 5, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,500 6, Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY Cardig Aero Service CASS BUY Bank Jatim BJTM BUY Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 17, ,150 15, Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 10, ,950 9, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,050 8, Unilever Indonesia UNVR BUY 24, ,000 21, IDX IDX 4,491 4, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI * * * 4,250 4, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 3,800 (57.8) 9,000 9, Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN REDUCE 480 (2.0) Indika Energy INDY REDUCE 1,250 (14.4) 1,460 1, Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,500 5, Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 1,000 (8.3) 1,090 1, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, ,030 1, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 1, ,580 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA BUY 1, ,360 1, Telkom Indonesia TLKM * * * 9,650 9, Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 12, ,650 9, Timah TINS REDUCE 1,000 (39.8) 1,660 1, Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY 980 (2.0) 1,000 1, Indocement INTP HOLD 25, ,400 21,500 (0.5) Gozco Plantations GZCO REDUCE 150 (22.7) (0.5) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, ,630 1,640 (0.6) Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 7, ,050 6,100 (0.8) Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,830 1,850 (1.1) Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 8, ,000 8,100 (1.2) Bukit Asam PTBA REDUCE 12,500 (18.3) 15,300 15,500 (1.3) Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 25, ,900 19,150 (1.3) ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD 700 (6.7) (1.3) Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1,000 (27.0) 1,370 1,390 (1.4) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 29,750 (26.7) 40,600 41,200 (1.5) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,320 1,340 (1.5) United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 17,000 (11.7) 19,250 19,550 (1.5) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, ,210 1,230 (1.6) Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 10, ,850 9,000 (1.7) Waskita Karya WSKT BUY (2.1) Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 4,800 (20.0) 6,000 6,150 (2.4) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP BUY 1, ,130 1,160 (2.6) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 5, ,575 4,700 (2.7) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 6,500 (5.8) 6,900 7,100 (2.8) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 500 (23.1) (3.0) Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY (3.0) Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE 85 (5.6) (3.2) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,200 2,275 (3.3) Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,150 2,225 (3.4) Erjaya Swasembada ERAA BUY 3, ,800 2,900 (3.4) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,340 1,390 (3.6) Wintermar WINS BUY (3.7) Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI HOLD 6, ,000 6,250 (4.0) Sampoerna Agro SGRO HOLD 2, ,400 2,500 (4.0) Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 4, ,575 3,725 (4.0) Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY 1, (4.1) Indosat ISAT HOLD 6,700 (2.9) 6,900 7,200 (4.2) Adaro Energy ADRO REDUCE 1,120 (28.7) 1,570 1,640 (4.3) Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,900 52,250 (4.5) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,570 1,670 (6.0) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 5, ,675 4,975 (6.0) Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY (6.1) Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2, ,200 2,350 (6.4) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID HOLD 160 (17.9) (7.1) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY (7.5) Supra Boga Lestari RANC BUY 1, (7.5) J Resources Asia Pasifik PSAB BUY 8, ,825 4,250 (10.0) Source: Bloomberg *Under our restricted list PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Net profit (IDRb) Revenue (IDRb) EPS growth (%) Opt. profit (IDRb) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net gearing (%) P/BV (x) Yield (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,613 37,927 1,551 1,982 1,009 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA BUY , , ,543 36,662 1,276 1, , CASS BUY , , ,070 1, nc AUTOMOTIVE RELATED N 337, , ,330 22,650 24,720 21,413 24, ASII HOLD 7,750 8,500 40, , , ,496 20,207 22,031 19,384 22, IMAS HOLD 5,350 5,425 2, , ,052 24, , GJTL HOLD 2,150 2,400 3, , ,708 13,054 1,498 1,577 1,063 1, ASSA BUY , , , BANKS N 854, , ,773 77,518 90,236 62,160 72, na na na na BBCA BUY 9,950 10,800 24, , ,011 35,656 14,168 16,821 11,816 14, na na na na BMRI BUY 8,850 10,400 23, , ,958 49,807 19,240 22,574 15,104 17, na na na na BBRI HOLD 8,050 8,500 24, , ,061 51,096 21,280 24,015 17,811 20, na na na na BBNI * 4,250 * 18, , ,628 27,147 8,353 9,799 6,960 8, na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,050 7,000 9, , ,211 21,498 6,333 7,102 4,130 4, na na na na BTPN HOLD 4,675 5,400 5, , ,334 7,686 2,509 3,084 2,011 2, na na na na BBTN BUY 1,570 1,700 10, , ,369 6,478 1,913 2,320 1,403 1, na na na na BJBR HOLD 1,210 1,250 9, , ,325 5,074 1,626 1,907 1,301 1, na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,377 2,752 1,000 1, ,060 (20.9) na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,149 3,578 1,094 1, na na na na CEMENT OW 174, ,325 44,084 11,903 14,367 9,581 11, nc SMGR BUY 16,150 17,600 5, , ,699 23,710 5,911 7,330 4,809 5, nc INTP HOLD 21,400 25,300 3, , ,626 20,373 5,992 7,037 4,772 5, nc nc COAL UW 207, , ,811 28,184 21,624 14,625 15,040 (19.4) (24.1) ADRO REDUCE 1,570 1,120 31, , ,875 31,577 9,048 6,866 4,182 2,963 (16.3) (27.6) ITMG REDUCE 40,600 29,750 1, , ,232 20,365 5,575 4,145 5,559 5,560 (19.1) (25.0) nc nc PTBA REDUCE 15,300 12,500 2, , ,650 10,316 3,431 2,494 2,882 2,212 (6.6) (23.3) nc nc BYAN REDUCE 9,000 3,800 3, , ,176 11,199 1, (56.7) (36.7) HRUM REDUCE 6,000 4,800 2, , ,334 7,772 2,245 1,747 1,456 1,147 (1.7) (19.5) nc nc BUMI REDUCE , , ,553 31,573 4,590 3,917 (2,368) 1,013 na na na na 9.6 BORN REDUCE , , ,749 5,344 1,521 1, (60.3) (9.0) INDY REDUCE 1,460 1,250 5, , ,828 7, , (29.4) CONS. & TOLL ROADS OW 67, ,753 52,121 6,392 7,764 3,442 4, JSMR BUY 5,500 7,000 6, , ,718 6,970 2,802 3,513 1,761 2, WIKA BUY 1,630 1,900 6, , ,135 11, , nc nc WSKT BUY , , ,225 11, nc nc CMNP BUY 1,830 2,200 2, , , (4.8) (21.3) PTPP * 900 * 4, , ,479 8, TOTL BUY 1, , , ,111 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 2,250 2,350 1, , ,150 9, CONSUMER - DISCRE. OW 71, ,210 39,066 3,298 3,993 2,474 2, nc nc SCMA BUY 2,200 2,475 9, , ,187 2,547 1,153 1, ,063 (4.9) nc nc HERO BUY 5,200 5,400 3, , ,628 12, ACES HOLD , , ,271 4, nc nc MAPI BUY 6,500 7,750 1, , ,583 9, nc nc RALS HOLD 1,190 1,350 7, , ,460 8, nc nc RANC BUY 740 1,120 1, , ,081 1, nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 444, , ,957 24,986 28,193 16,542 18,853 (9.4) nc nc UNVR BUY 22,000 24,000 7, , ,264 31,764 6,404 7,069 4,845 5, nc nc GGRM HOLD 49,900 55,000 1, , ,129 52,903 5,731 6,539 3,829 4,453 (21.8) INDF BUY 6,600 7,000 8, , ,574 53,962 6,593 7,390 3,082 3, nc nc KLBF HOLD 1,090 1,000 50, , ,247 15,408 2,262 2,614 1,735 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 8,000 8,600 5, , ,649 23,582 2,934 3,259 2,178 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 3,325 3,950 4, , ,796 7, , nc nc ROTI HOLD 6,000 6,100 1, , ,124 1, nc HEAVY EQUIPMENT UW 73, ,938 66,334 8,176 7,740 5,364 5,569 (10.9) (2.1) UNTR REDUCE 19,250 17,000 3, , ,930 57,942 7,593 7,253 5,613 5,493 (10.9) (2.1) nc nc DOID HOLD , , ,008 8, (250) na (6.5) (26.8) 8.1 INDUSTRIAL ESTATES OW 20, ,830 10,176 2,400 3,558 1,876 2, BEST BUY 710 1,000 9, , , nc SSIA BUY 1,360 1,470 4, , ,384 4, , nc nc KIJA BUY , , ,451 2, LPCK BUY 3,575 4, , ,040 1, nc nc METALS UW 52, ,391 28,668 2,858 3,877 2,095 2,910 (65.0) INCO REDUCE 2,875 2,000 9, , ,978 9, , ,241 (81.3) ANTM REDUCE 1,370 1,000 9, , ,369 10, (55.9) (3.4) nc nc TINS REDUCE 1,660 1,000 5, , ,493 6, (47.9) (2.2) nc PSAB BUY 3,825 8, , ,551 1, na OIL & GAS N 131, ,437 65,692 12,633 13,356 8,444 9,486 (3.4) PGAS BUY 4,575 5,500 24, , ,298 30,651 9,558 10,382 7,502 8, nc nc AKRA REDUCE 4,000 3,000 3, , ,920 24, (71.7) MEDC HOLD 1,580 1,660 3, , , , ,267 2, (64.8) PLANTATIONS N 74, ,896 44,062 9,609 10,091 5,719 6, AALI BUY 18,900 25,000 1, , ,078 13,463 3,370 3,636 2,377 2,608 (1.2) nc nc SIMP BUY 1,130 1,200 15, , ,060 15,883 2,767 2,901 1,277 1,355 (29.7) LSIP BUY 2,200 2,500 6, , ,583 5,013 1,446 1,516 1,256 1,313 (26.2) nc nc BWPT BUY 1,320 1,700 4, , ,046 1, (2.4) SGRO HOLD 2,400 2,400 1, , ,972 3, (41.8) UNSP REDUCE , , ,720 4, (91.5) GZCO REDUCE , , (42.2) (9.8) POULTRY N 78, ,931 43,252 5,412 6,224 3,921 4, CPIN BUY 3,900 3,750 16, , ,688 23,751 3,673 4,246 2,899 3, nc JPFA BUY 6,900 6,500 2, , ,243 19,500 1,739 1,978 1,022 1, PROPERTY OW 103, ,421 28,980 7,289 9,422 5,416 6, LPKR BUY 1,030 1,280 23, , ,072 6,604 1,481 1,642 1,092 1, BSDE BUY 1,340 1,600 17, , ,544 4,423 1,381 1,779 1,212 1, nc nc SMRA BUY 1,980 2,300 7, , ,029 3, nc nc ASRI BUY , , ,268 3,132 1,181 1,672 1,003 1, nc nc CTRA BUY 910 1,020 15, , ,088 4, , nc nc APLN BUY , , ,613 4,847 1,315 1, CTRP BUY 800 1,170 6, , , SHIPPING N 1, ,107 1, WINS BUY , , ,107 1, STEEL UW 10, ,369 23, (92.8) KRAS REDUCE , , ,369 23, (92.8) TELCOS OW 280, , ,042 34,994 37,031 17,691 19, TLKM * 9,650 * 20, , ,237 81,334 25,729 27,245 13,043 14, EXCL BUY 5,400 8,000 8, , ,468 23,303 4,917 5,071 3,109 3, ISAT HOLD 6,900 6,700 5, ,943 24,027 2,486 2,124 1, (60.7) TOWR BUY 26,550 27,000 1, , ,158 2,556 1,180 1, ERAA BUY 2,800 3,500 2, , ,290 17, TELE BUY , , ,555 13, (1.3) (37.2) BTEL REDUCE , , ,437 2,562 (211) (131) (1,097) (959) 40.1 (12.6) (1.4) (1.6) nc (28.5) Market OW 3,002,105 2, ,289,543 1,427, , , , , Note: *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 01/30/ :00 SK Cyclical Leading Index Change Dec % 01/30/ :50 JN Retail Trade YoY Dec 0.30% % 01/30/ :50 JN Large Retailers' Sales Dec -1.00% % 01/30/ :00 SP GDP (Constant SA) (YoY) 4Q P % 01/30/ :00 HK Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY) Dec % 01/30/ :00 HK Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY) Dec % 01/30/ :00 IT Economic Sentiment Jan % 01/30/ :00 IT Business Confidence Jan % % 01/30/ :30 UK Net Consumer Credit Dec 0.2B B 01/30/ :30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Dec 0.5B B 01/30/ :30 UK Mortgage Approvals Dec 54.5K K 01/30/ :30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) Dec /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Jan /30/ :00 EC Business Climate Indicator Jan /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence Jan /30/ :00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Jan F /30/ :00 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence Jan /30/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications /30/ :15 US ADP Employment Change Jan 165K K 01/30/ :30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q A 1.10% % 01/30/ :30 US Personal Consumption 4Q A Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ FX reserves (USDb) Sep 10/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 8/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q 5/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 3Q 10/ Reference rate (%) Oct Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jun 7/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference Rate (%) Oct 10/ Unemployment rate (%) Sep 10/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst Monday, 25 February :00 BMRI analyst meeting Teguh Hartanto AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time EGM SMRU IJ SMR Utama 2/8/13 10:00 EGM GDST IJ Gunawan Dianjaya Steel 2/12/13 15:00 EGM TKGA IJ Toko Gunung Agung 2/13/13 14:00 EGM PKPK IJ Perdana Karya Perkasa 2/15/13 14:00 AGM MLBI IJ Multi Bintang Indonesia 2/15/13 11:00 AGM META IJ Nusantara Infrastructure 2/18/13 10:00 EGM MYOH IJ Samindo Resources 2/19/13 10:00 EGM ALKA IJ Alakasa Industrindo 2/26/13 09:00 AGM BULL IJ Buana Listya Tama 2/27/13 10:00 AGM ROTI IJ Nippon Indosari Corpindo 2/28/13 10:00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Surya Toto Indonesia 6, % 12/25/ /27/2012 1/14/2013 TOTO IJ Akr Corporindo 4, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/16/2013 AKRA IJ Adaro Energy 1, % 12/27/2012 1/2/2013 1/15/2013 ADRO IJ Elang Mahkota Teknologi 4, % 1/2/2013 1/4/2013 1/16/2013 EMTK IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 06/07/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property PALM 10/08/12 Provident Agro Plantation NELY 10/11/12 Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping TAXI 11/02/12 Express Transindo Utama Transportation BSSR 11/08/12 Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal ASSA 11/12/12 Adi Sarana Armada Automotive WIIM 12/18/12 Wismilak Cigarettes WSKT 12/19/12 Waskita Karya Construction 1, total 10, BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management SEBA Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Sumut Banks Nobu National Bank Banks Bank Maspion Banks GarudaFood Consumer PLN Batam Energy Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Riau Baraharum Mining 5, Citra Borneo Indah Plantation 1, Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantation 1, Multi Agro Plantation Siba Surya Transportation Cipaganti group Transportation Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation Spindo Pipes manufacturer 1, total 33,502 Grand total 43,638 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 1H11 total 22, IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN 02/16/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, BSIM 06/25/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1, KIAS 02/24/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain RAJA 05/08/12 Rukun Raharja Energy SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, TRIO 06/26/12 Trikomsel Oke Retail SMMT 06/26/12 Golden Eagle Energy Energy ITTG 07/05/12 Leo Investments Financial MCOR 07/06/12 Bank Windu Kentjana International Banks SUPR 08/16/12 Solusi Tunas Pratama Towers BEKS 09/07/12 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks MDRN 10/29/12 Modern International Retail BBNT 11/19/12 Bank Tabungan Negara Banks 1, COWL 11/20/12 Cowell Development Construction BNLI 11/30/12 Bank Permata Banks 1, INPC 11/30/12 Bank Arta Graha International Banks MYOH 12/18/12 MYOH Technology Telecommunication BIPP 12/10/12 Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Property HOME 12/11/12 Hotel Mandarine Regency Property CNKO 12/14/12 Exploitasi Energi Indonesia Coal 2, SRAJ 12/19/12 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Shipping 1, INCF Amstelco Indonesia Financial 5, total 25,098 Grand total 65,745 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 2012 Results Round ups Operating profit Net profit No Company Code (IDRb) (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 22,687 21, Higher 18,861 17, In line 2 Kalbe Farma KLBF 2,208 2, In line 1,732 1, In line 3 XL Axiata EXCL 4,679 4, In line 2,765 3, Below Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Toll Road ext 3601 Irwan Budiarto Research Analyst Coal, Oil and Gas ext 3606 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst Poultry ext 3603 Stifanus Sulistyo Research Analyst Small cap ext 3611 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Anthony Alexander Research Analyst Construction ext 3613 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3604 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Listiana Kwang Equity Sales ext 2546 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 12

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