Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Asiamoney s 2013 Best Domestic Equity House Tuesday, 10 September 2013 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,191.3 (2.9%) Turnover: IDR5.1t (+38.8%%) Foreign net buy: IDR53b (net sell: IDR176b) SECTOR FLASH For details please refer to our separate report(s) Cement - August: Down on holidays, but still up on daily basis Volumes down 32.5% m-m and 5.8% y-y Stronger contribution from Java SMGR - most resilient volume sales Outlook: Cut domestic volume growth target to 7.3% (- 1.8ppt) Recommendation: Neutral Promising LT outlook TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS 10-year govt bond: Highest level since 1Q11 August 2013 consumer confidence index: 107.8, down 0.6 points Govt to miss 2013 tax revenue target Govt to raise 2014 electricity tariffs in 4 categories Indonesia s M2 grew 14.7% y-y BI to conduct bilateral swaps with 2 countries CORPORATE ASII launches LCGC models Agya and Ayla INDF to build noodle plant in Kenya BBTN to carry out asset securitization RALS August sales: 7% below management s internal target TINS: Ready for Myanmar, secured IDR3t loan, acquiring coal mines PTPP to buyback shares ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (2.7) (2.9) (1.0) Op.prof.gwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.2) (2.5) (2.0) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal GDP growth (%y-y) EPS growth (%) Private spending (%) EPS gwt exc. coal (%) Investment (%y-y) P/E (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/E exc. coal (x) Total imports (%y-y) PEG (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG exc. coal (x) IDR/USD 9,67910,80010,600 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) Div. Yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 22, IDX (Indonesia) 4, (2.9) 0.7 KLCI (Malaysia) 1, KOSPI (Korea) 1, (1.1) 2.6 Nikkei (Japan) 14, PCOMP (Phil.) 5, SENSEX (India) 19, (0.8) 9.0 SET (Thailand) 1, (0.5) 10.7 SHCOMP (China) 2, (2.5) 3.6 Shenzhen (China) 1, STI (Singapore) 3, (2.5) 2.6 TWSE (Taiwan) 8, VNI (Vietnam) (2.1) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 4,040.3 (0.2) DAX (Germany) 8, Dow Jones (USA) 15, FTSE 100 (UK) 6,530.7 (0.3) IBOV (Brazil) 54, (11.0) (7.0) NASDAQ (USA) 3, RTSI (Russia) 1, (9.5) (6.1) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ETF, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EIDO US (USD) (19.9) (17.5) TLK US (IDR) 2, (7.3) BUMI LN (IDR) 37,703 (4.9) (23.1) (23.3) Coal (USD/t) (17.7) (15.4) Corn (USD/mtn) (24.9) (34.9) Coffee (USD/t) 2, (12.8) (20.9) Copper (USD/t) 7, (9.4) (10.0) Cotton (USD/t) 1, CPO (USD/t-MPOB) (13.6) DOC (IDR/kg) 6, Gold (USD/oz.) 1,387 (0.1) (17.2) (19.7) Iron ore (USD/mtn) (7.0) 51.5 Milk (USD/t) (2.1) (1.7) Nickel (USD/t) 13,847 (0.4) (18.5) (15.8) Oil (USD/barrel) (1.3) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 2,470 (0.8) (17.3) (3.9) Soybean oil (USD/t) 944 (1.4) (12.9) (23.6) Steel (USD/t) 594 (0.2) (8.6) 11.7 Sugar (USD/t) 451 (0.1) (8.0) (15.6) Tins (USD/t) 22,950 (0.1) (1.8) 14.9 Wheat (USD/t) 236 (1.2) (21.9) (26.7) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD USD/EUR (0.5) (3.9) IDR/USD 11,373 11, JPY/USD (27.3) SGD/USD (3.9) (2.6) JIBOR (%) BI rate (%) TD 1 month (%) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS 10-year govt bond: Highest level since 1Q11 Due to higher inflationary expectation and further capital outflows caused by negative sentiment on the Federal Reserve s stimulus reduction plan, Indonesia s 10-year govt bond yield has spiked to 8.933%, the highest level since 1Q11. Note that foreign ownership on govt bonds have declined by IDR22.6t since peak level on 16 May. (Bloomberg, MoF) August 2013 consumer confidence index: 107.8, down 0.6 points Based on Bank Indonesia (BI) survey, Indonesia s August consumer confidence index (IKK) was down 0.6 points from in July 2013 to 107.8, the lowest since April (Kontan) Govt to miss 2013 tax revenue target MoF s Directorate General of Tax revealed that the government is likely to miss 2013 tax revenue target by IDR161.4t IDR196t due to lower contribution coming from exporters. Bahana: If the government does not trim its spending with expenditure coming on target at IDR1,726t, the 2013 state budget deficit would range between 4.2%-4.6% of GDP, much above the threshold of 3%. (Bisnis Indonesia) Govt to raise 2014 electricity tariffs in 4 categories To reduce subsidy burden, the government plans to raise 2014 electricity tariffs in 4 categories including luxury households (6,600VA), businesses (6,600VA- 200kVA), buildings (up to 200kVA) and street illumination (6,600VA-200kVA). (Jakarta Post) Indonesia s M2 grew 14.7% y-y On the back of the fasting month leading up to the Lebaran festivities, Bank Indonesia (BI) showed Indonesia s broad money supply (M2) growth of 14.7% y-y with the following breakdown: (IDRt) July 2012 June 2013 July 2013 M2 (broad money) 3, , ,506.6 M1 (narrow money) IDR demand deposits Quasi money 2, , ,608.1 Source: Bank Indonesia, Reuters, Bahana BI to conduct bilateral swaps with 2 countries To help cushion FX reserves against market volatilities going forward, Bank Indonesia plans to conduct bilateral swaps with 2 countries. Note that previously the central bank has extended a swap agreement with Bank of Japan worth USD12b. Bahana: This move would help BI to manage its FX reserves and ease shortterm pressure on the IDR in our view. (Indonesia Finance Today) CORPORATE ASII launches LCGC models Agya and Ayla Astra International (ASII-REDUCE-IDR5,850-TP:IDR5,700) launched its Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) models, Agya and Ayla yesterday. Despite 10k monthly production capacity, ASII targets to sell just 5-6k units per month. The price range for Agya is around IDR99-IDR120m, while around IDR76-IDR106m for Ayla. Separately, ASII will also distribute interim dividend of IDR64/share (yield: 1.09%) with ex dividend date on 11 October Bahana: We expect Agya and Ayla to contribute 20k units in 2013 (around 3% of total 650k unit sales) and 72k units (12% of total 580k unit sales) in (Jakarta Post, Bisnis Indonesia) INDF to build noodle plant in Kenya Salim Group to build noodle plant in Mombasa port, Kenya, through its subsidiary Salim Wazaran Kenya Co. Ltd, a joint venture between Salim (51%) and Wazaran (49%). The plant, with initial investment of USD7.3m, is already 90% complete and will supply East Afrika areas of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Separately, Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF-BUY-IDR6,350-TP:IDR8,500) seeks bank loan to finance the rest of China Minzhong s stake. (Kontan, Jakarta Post) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily

3 BBTN to carry out asset securitization Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN-BUY-IDR900-TP:IDR1,200) plans to perform asset securitization this upcoming October-November 2013 amounting IDR1t. BBTN s Director, Evi Firmansyah stated that the bank will first select assets to be securitized, then appoint an underwriter following approval from the Financial Services Authority (OJK). (Kontan) RALS August sales: 7% below management s internal target Ramayana Lestari Sentosa s (RALS-HOLD-IDR970-TP:IDR1,350) August sales reached IDR1,169b, down 18% q-q and 25% y-y, coming in short of management s internal forecast by around 7%. This brought 8M13 sales to only IDR5,839b, representing just 69% of the company s 2013 full-year sales forecast, from a target of 74%. SSG for August ytd also plunged to just 0.5% from 11.9% at July s ytd level. (Company) TINS: Ready for Myanmar, secured IDR3t loan, acquiring coal mines Timah (TINS-HOLD-IDR1,570-TP:IDR1,300) has prepared 8 people from TINS to be positioned as directors in its subsidiary in Myanmar. CEO of TINS, Sukrisno, further elaborated that TINS will continue its business expansion both domestically and internationally. As a testimony to the statement, TINS has secured an IDR3t standby loan which will be utilized to purchase tins from local producers that are unable to join ICDX. Separately, TINS is also preparing IDR1t for the acquisitions of coal mines in Musi Banyuasin, South Sumatra. (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia, IQPLUS) PTPP to buyback shares Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP-BUY-IDR960-TP:IDR1,600) is planning to spend IDR100b from its retained easrnings to buyback the company s own shares. (Investor Daily) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside) 9/9/2013 9/6/2013 CHANGE (%) Potential (%) Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST BUY Total Bangun Persada TOTL HOLD 1, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY 1, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN REDUCE Under Review - 3,000 2, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 1, Bank Jabar Banten BJBR HOLD 1, Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1, Timah TINS REDUCE 1,300 (17.2) 1,570 1, Semen Gresik SMGR HOLD 17, ,500 12, Malindo Feedmill MAIN BUY 4, ,900 2, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 12, ,650 9, Ciputra Property CTRP BUY 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 8, ,350 5, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI HOLD 8, ,200 6, Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 1, Bank Central Asia BBCA HOLD 10, ,350 8, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, , Agung Podomoro Land APLN BUY Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN HOLD 1, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI HOLD 5, ,650 3, Harum Energy HRUM REDUCE 2,700 (28.9) 3,800 3, Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 7, ,300 5, Bank Jatim BJTM BUY Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 1, ,310 1, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 7, ,050 4, Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE BUY Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY Under Review - 1,140 1, Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 3, ,600 1, Telkom Indonesia TLKM BUY 2, ,075 1, Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1, Krakatau Steel KRAS REDUCE 400 (21.6) Sri Rezeki Izman SRIL BUY Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 9, ,575 4, Indocement INTP BUY 25, ,250 19, Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 9, ,950 6, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA BUY Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 8, ,000 5, Gajah Tunggal GJTL HOLD 2, ,820 1, Garuda Indonesia GIAA BUY Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP HOLD Under Review - 3,300 3, United Tractors UNTR REDUCE 14,000 (16.7) 16,800 16, Wijaya Karya WIKA * * * 1,690 1, IDX IDX 4,191 4, Astra Agro Lestari AALI REDUCE 15,000 (30.6) 21,600 21, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS HOLD 6, ,400 5, AKR Corporindo AKRA REDUCE 4, ,625 3, Aneka Tambang ANTM REDUCE 1, ,480 1, Astra International ASII REDUCE 5,700 (2.6) 5,850 5, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS HOLD 1, Adaro Energy ADRO HOLD 900 (10.9) 1, Vale Indonesia INCO REDUCE 2,200 (15.4) 2,600 2, Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 55, ,950 37, Erajaya Swasembada ERAA REDUCE 1, ,090 1, Medco Energi International MEDC HOLD 1,660 (43.7) 2,950 2, Sampoerna Agro SGRO REDUCE 1,000 (47.1) 1,890 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA HOLD 1, ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES HOLD Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP REDUCE 500 (33.3) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE Bukit Asam PTBA HOLD 12,000 (14.0) 13,950 13, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 2, ,250 1, London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP REDUCE 1,000 (33.8) 1,510 1, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN HOLD 4, ,925 3, Indosat ISAT HOLD Under Review - 4,025 4, Indomobil Sukses International IMAS REDUCE 4,425 (9.7) 4,900 4, Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 31,150 (2.7) 32,000 31, Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT REDUCE 1,100 (18.5) 1,350 1, Cardig Aero Services CASS BUY 1, Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR HOLD 2, ,850 2, Supra Boga Lestari RANC Under Review Under Review Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 2, ,400 2, Wintermar WINS HOLD Bank Danamon BDMN REDUCE 4, ,950 3,975 (0.6) BW Plantation BWPT HOLD 700 (20.5) (2.2) Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC BUY 3, ,200 3,275 (2.3) Hero Supermarket HERO REDUCE Under Review - 3,100 3,175 (2.4) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,025 4,125 (2.4) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG REDUCE 22,250 (28.2) 31,000 31,950 (3.0) Source: Bloomberg *Under our restricted list PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,513 45,623 2,054 2,670 1,411 1, AERO SERVICE N GIAA * 490 * 22, , ,247 44,205 1,735 2,324 1,285 1, C ASS BUY 840 1,010 2, , ,265 1, nc nc AUTOMOTIVE RELATED N 257, , ,080 18,985 19,911 20,335 20,774 (12.8) ASII REDUC E 5,850 5,700 40, , , ,911 16,594 17,230 18,241 18,612 (6.1) IMAS REDUC E 4,900 4,425 2, , ,019 20, (13.7) GJTL HOLD 1,820 2,450 3, , ,193 15,176 1,567 1,673 1,153 1, (1.1) ASSA BUY , ,034 1, BANKS N 726,585 1, , ,713 89, ,429 71,886 80, na na na na BBC A HOLD 9,350 10,700 24, , ,644 41,312 16,606 18,927 13,629 15, na na na na BMRI BUY 6,950 9,500 23, , ,409 56,575 21,634 24,454 17,503 19, na na na na BBRI HOLD 7,200 8,600 24, , ,173 59,183 25,346 28,465 21,303 23, na na na na BBNI HOLD 3,650 5,000 18, , ,883 31,530 10,027 11,454 8,248 9, na na na na BDMN REDUC E 3,950 4,500 9, , ,470 22,860 6,388 6,947 4,137 4, na na na na BTPN HOLD 3,925 4,400 5, , ,568 8,984 2,977 3,441 2,380 2, na na na na BBTN HOLD 900 1,200 10, , ,316 7,253 2,048 2,211 1,509 1,628 (4.2) na na na na BJBR HOLD 870 1,000 9, , ,306 5,997 1,765 1,965 1,425 1, na na na na BJTM BUY , , ,786 3,029 1,107 1, (4.2) na na na na BBKP HOLD , , ,578 3,991 1,217 1, , na na na na CEMENT OW 154, ,982 51,428 13,935 15,791 11,160 12, SMGR HOLD 13,500 17,100 5, , ,140 27,097 6,971 8,084 5,597 6, INTP BUY 20,250 25,300 3, , ,841 24,331 6,964 7,707 5,563 6, nc nc SMBR * 350 * 9, , ,283 1, nc nc COAL UW 118, , ,489 20,678 19,065 13,423 12,254 (27.0) (0.9) ADRO HOLD 1, , , ,942 32,730 7,162 7,048 3,091 2,941 (15.6) (4.4) ITMG REDUC E 31,000 22,250 1, , ,245 21,250 4,324 4,569 5,560 5,561 (25.5) nc nc PTBA HOLD 13,950 12,000 2, , ,269 10,473 2,072 1,745 1,795 1,544 (38.1) (14.0) nc nc HRUM REDUC E 3,800 3,000 2, , ,108 8,279 1,822 1,846 1,197 1,225 (5.0) nc nc BUMI REDUC E , , ,939 33,922 4,087 3,857 1, na na CONS. & TOLL ROADS N 67, ,228 64,682 7,707 9,683 4,091 5, JSMR BUY 5,300 7,300 6, , ,323 7,589 2,845 3,491 1,644 1, WIKA BUY 1,690 3,200 6, , ,738 14,571 1,291 1, , nc nc WSKT BUY 485 1,030 9, , ,778 14, , nc nc C MNP HOLD 3,300 UR 2, , ,005 1, (24.6) PTPP BUY 960 1,600 4, , ,554 13,165 1,198 1, TOTL HOLD 610 1,200 3, , ,318 2, nc nc ADHI BUY 1,600 4,400 1, , ,513 10, CONSUMER - DISCRE. OW 76, ,144 46,624 3,886 4,596 2,866 3, nc nc SC MA BUY 35, ,547 2,897 1,395 1,599 1,063 1, nc nc ,400 2,475 14, HERO REDUC E 3,100 UR 4, , ,904 15, nc nc AC ES HOLD , , ,148 4, nc nc MAPI BUY 5,050 7,900 1, , ,385 11, nc nc RALS HOLD 970 1,350 7, , ,666 10, nc nc RANC UR 500 UR 1, ,494 1, nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 516, , ,833 28,193 31,610 18,853 21, nc nc UNVR HOLD 244, ,764 36,978 7,069 7,783 5,370 5, nc nc ,000 31,150 7, GGRM HOLD 37,950 55,000 1, , ,903 59,494 6,539 7,525 4,453 5, INDF BUY 6,350 8,500 8, , ,962 57,881 7,390 8,098 3,530 3, nc nc KLBF BUY 1,310 1,580 50, , ,408 17,387 2,614 2,968 2,009 2, nc nc IC BP BUY 9,650 12,100 5, , ,582 25,190 3,259 3,649 2,417 2, nc nc TSPC BUY 3,200 3,950 4, , ,919 9,181 1,086 1, , nc nc ROTI BUY 6,000 8,925 1, , ,419 1, nc nc HEAVY EQUIPMENT UW 63, ,144 61,094 6,347 6,697 4,591 4,944 (21.9) UNTR REDUC E 16,800 14,000 3, , ,751 52,474 5,860 6,080 4,515 4,747 (21.9) nc nc DOID HOLD , ,393 8, na na INDUSTRIAL ESTATES OW 15, ,042 11,585 3,621 4,263 2,876 3, BEST BUY , , ,368 1, , nc nc SSIA HOLD 650 1,800 4, , ,635 5,250 1,224 1, , nc nc KIJA BUY , , ,833 3, , LPC K BUY 4,575 9, , ,207 1, nc nc METALS UW 47, ,129 31,248 3,245 3,935 2,560 3, INC O REDUC E 2,600 2,200 9, , ,148 14,859 1,818 2,328 1,281 1, ANTM REDUC E 1,480 1,650 9, , ,239 8, (3.4) (1.3) nc nc TINS REDUC E 1,570 1,300 5, , ,742 7, (6.0) nc nc OIL & GAS N 154, ,456 76,553 13,976 14,478 10,334 10, PGAS HOLD 5,400 6,800 24, , ,977 34,284 10,831 11,115 9,098 9, nc nc AKRA REDUC E 3,625 4,000 3, , ,645 30, , MEDC * 2,950 * 3, , , , ,168 2, PLANTATIONS N 67, ,831 41,439 5,802 6,090 3,466 3,565 (37.9) AALI REDUC E 21,600 15,000 1, , ,293 15,917 2,279 2,442 1,501 1,599 (37.7) nc nc SIMP REDUC E , , ,573 14,787 1,718 1, (48.4) (6.0) LSIP REDUC E 1,510 1,000 6, , ,294 4, (47.0) (6.5) nc nc BWPT HOLD , , ,082 1, (39.9) SGRO REDUC E 1,890 1,000 1, , ,810 2, (51.8) (12.7) ANJT REDUC E 1,350 1,100 3, , ,778 2, nc nc POULTRY N 66, ,969 54,789 6,843 7,973 5,027 5, C PIN REDUC E 3,000 UR 16, , ,751 27,895 4,246 4,997 3,362 3, nc nc JPFA BUY 1,140 UR 10, , ,068 22,068 1,978 2,246 1,218 1, MAIN BUY 2,900 4,400 1, , ,149 4, PROPERTY OW 90, ,436 38,920 11,014 13,664 8,197 10, LPKR BUY 1,050 1,640 23, , ,604 7,415 1,502 1,820 1,174 1, BSDE BUY 1,250 2,125 17, , ,485 6,946 2,538 3,174 2,217 2, nc nc SMRA BUY 770 1,600 14, , ,207 4,985 1,245 1,465 1,007 1, nc nc ASRI BUY 510 1,050 19, , ,337 4,054 1,748 2,204 1,286 1, nc nc C TRA BUY 880 1,600 15, , ,339 7,183 1,589 2, , nc nc APLN BUY , , ,564 6,105 1,642 1,814 1,005 1, C TRP BUY 750 1,040 6, , ,901 2, SHIPPING N 2, ,220 1, WINS HOLD , , ,220 1, STEEL UW 8, ,009 25, , KRAS REDUC E , , ,009 25, , TELCOS OW 300, , ,607 37,065 41,045 20,035 22, TLKM BUY 2,075 2, , , ,334 86,953 27,245 29,773 14,423 15, EXC L BUY 4,025 5,375 8, , ,303 24,839 5,071 5,461 3,334 3, ISAT HOLD 4,025 UR 5, , ,027 26,449 2,124 2, ,021 (60.7) TOWR HOLD 2,850 2,950 10, , ,556 2,995 1,442 1, (87.3) ERAA REDUC E 1,090 1,250 2, , ,985 21, TELE BUY , , ,139 15, TEXTILE OW 4, ,690 4, SRIL BUY , , ,690 4, Market N 2,752,264 3,738 1,394,314 1,524, , , , , Note: *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 08/20/ :00 BZ Trade Balance Weekly 18-Aug /20/ :30 AU RBA Policy Meeting - August Minutes 08/20/ :00 NZ 2Yr Inflation Expectation 3Q % 08/20/ :30 JN All Industry Activity Index MoM Jun % 08/20/ :00 GE PPI YoY Jul % 08/20/ :00 SA Leading Indicator Jun /20/ :00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY Jul % 08/20/ :30 NE Consumer Confidence Index Aug /20/ :00 TA Export Orders YoY Jul % 08/20/ :20 TA BoP Current Account Balance 2Q M 08/20/ :30 HK CPI Composite YoY Jul % 08/20/ :00 PO PPI YoY Jul % 08/20/ :00 TU Benchmark Repurchase Rate 20-Aug % 08/20/ :00 TU Overnight Lending Rate 20-Aug % 08/20/ :00 TU Overnight Borrowing Rate 20-Aug % 08/20/ :00 PD PPI YoY Jul % 08/20/ :30 CA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Jun % 08/20/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jul /20/ :00 MX Industrial Production MoM Jun % 08/20/ :00 MX GDP YoY 2Q % 08/20/ :00 MX GDP Nominal YoY 2Q % Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ FX reserves (USDb) Jul 8/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug Unemployment rate (%) Jul Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q13 5/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jun 7/ GDP (%, y-y) 1Q13 5/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 2/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) May 7/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q13 8/ Reference Rate (%) Aug 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Jul 8/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst 5 September AUTO company visit Leonardo Henry Gavaza AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time EGM ENRG IJ Energi Mega Persada 9/17/ :00 EGM FPNI IJ Lotte Chemical Titan Tbk PT 9/18/ :00 EGM LCGP IJ Laguna Cipta Griya 9/27/ :00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex date Record date Payment date Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) Lamicitra Nusantara % 8/19/2013 8/21/2013 9/4/2013 LAMI IJ Indomobil Sukses Internasional 5, % 8/21/2013 8/23/2013 9/6/2013 IMAS IJ Metro Realty na 3 na 8/21/2013 8/23/2013 9/4/2013 MTSM IJ Holcim Indonesia 2, % 8/28/2013 8/30/2013 9/10/2013 SMCB IJ Indal Aluminium Industry % 9/2/2013 9/4/2013 9/18/2013 INAI IJ Alumindo Light Metal Industry % 9/2/2013 9/4/2013 9/18/2013 ALMI IJ Mandala Multifinance % 9/4/2013 9/6/2013 9/20/2013 MFIN IJ Kobexindo Tractors % 10/23/ /25/ /11/2013 KOBX IJ 09 Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 PADI 01/09/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 01/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 02/01/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 04/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates RANC 06/07/12 Supra Boga Lestari Retail TRIS 06/28/12 Trisula International Fashion distribution KOBX 07/05/12 Kobexindo Tractors Heavy equipment TOBA 07/06/12 Toba Bara Sejahtera Coal MSKY 07/09/12 MNC Sky Vision Media 2, ALTO 07/10/12 Tri Banyan Consumer GLOB 07/10/12 Global Teleshop Telcos GAMA 07/11/12 Gading Development Property BJTM 07/12/12 Bank Jatim Banks 1, IBST 08/31/12 Inti Bangun Sejahtera Communication NIRO 09/13/12 Nirvana Development Property PALM 10/08/12 Provident Agro Plantation NELY 10/11/12 Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Shipping TAXI 11/02/12 Express Transindo Utama Transportation BSSR 11/08/12 Baramulti Sukses Sarana Coal ASSA 11/12/12 Adi Sarana Armada Automotive WIIM 12/18/12 Wismilak Cigarettes WSKT 12/19/12 Waskita Karya Construction 1, total 10, BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management MAGP 01/16/13 Multi Agro Gemilang Plantations TPMA 02/20/13 Trans Power Marine Transportation ISSP 02/22/13 Spindo Pipes manufacturer DYAN 03/25/13 Dyandra Media International Entertainment ANJT 05/08/13 Austindo Nusantara Jaya Plantation NOBU 05/20/13 Bank Nationalnobu Banking MPMX 05/29/13 Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Automotive 1, DSNG 06/14/13 Dharma Satya Nusantara Plantations SRIL 06/17/13 Sritex Textile 1, ACST 06/24/13 Acset Indonesia Construction SRTG 06/26/13 Saratoga Investa Sedaya Finance 1, NRCA 06/27/13 Nusa Raya Cipta Construction SMBR 06/28/13 Semen Baturaja Cement 1, ECII 07/03/13 Electronic City Indonesia Retail 1, BBMD 07/08/13 Bank Mestika Dharma Banking 1, MLPT 07/08/13 Multipolar Technology IT VICO 07/08/13 Victoria Investama Finance CPGT 07/09/13 Cipaganti group Transportation NAGA 07/09/13 Bank Mitraniaga Banking BMAS 07/11/13 Bank Maspion Banking Bank Muamalat Indonesia Banking 1,940-2, Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bank Sumut Banking Wika Beton Construction material 1, PLN Batam Energy Persib Bandung Bermartabat Entertainment Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance Citra Borneo Indah Plantations 1, Dutapalma Nusantara Plantations Multi Agro Plantations Pasifik Agro Sentosa Plantations 1, /26/13 Delta Mas Property 2, Sriboga Ratu Raya Restaurant Blue Bird Transportation 2, Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation Siba Surya Transportation Sido Muncul Healthcare 1, Grand Kartech Manufacturing total 29,431 Grand total 39,657 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 01/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 01/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 01/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 01/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 02/01/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution ABDA 04/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 05/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 06/03/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 06/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 06/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks IMAS 07/01/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 07/08/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 07/05/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 07/06/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 09/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/02/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/04/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/03/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/02/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/09/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 J Resources Asia Pasifik Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1, total 40, FREN 02/16/12 Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, BSIM 06/25/12 Bank Sinarmas Banks AMRT 03/12/12 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1, KIAS 02/24/12 Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain RAJA 05/08/12 Rukun Raharja Energy SUGI 05/11/12 Sugih Energy Energy 2, NISP 05/30/12 Bank OCBC NISP Banks 1, TRIO 06/26/12 Trikomsel Oke Retail SMMT 06/26/12 Golden Eagle Energy Energy ITTG 07/05/12 Leo Investments Financial MCOR 07/06/12 Bank Windu Kentjana International Banks SUPR 08/16/12 Solusi Tunas Pratama Towers BEKS 09/07/12 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks MDRN 10/29/12 Modern International Retail BBNT 11/19/12 Bank Tabungan Negara Banks 1, COWL 11/20/12 Cowell Development Construction BNLI 11/30/12 Bank Permata Banks 1, INPC 11/30/12 Bank Arta Graha International Banks MYOH 12/18/12 MYOH Technology Telecommunication BIPP 12/10/12 Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Property HOME 12/11/12 Hotel Mandarine Regency Property CNKO 12/14/12 Exploitasi Energi Indonesia Coal 2, SRAJ 12/19/12 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Shipping 1, INCF Amstelco Indonesia Financial 5, total 25,098 CENT 02/01/13 Centrin Online Information Technology 675 TKGA 03/08/13 Permata Prima Sakti Coal 480 TRIM 04/08/13 Trimegah Securities Financial 80 AUTO 04/25/13 Astra Otoparts Automotive parts 2,900 HERO 06/14/13 Hero Supermarket Retail 3,350 INDS 07/01/13 Indospring Automotive parts 1, total 13,585 Grand total 79,330 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 1H13 Results Round ups Operating profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) No Company Code Actual Bahana (%) Comment Actual Bahana (%) Comment 1 ACE Hardware ACES 2 Adi Sarana Armada ASSA In line In line 3 Agung Podomoro Land APLN 740 1, In line Above 4 AKR Corporindo AKRA Below In line 5 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 942 1, Above 747 1, In line 6 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 954 2, Below 771 1, In line 7 Astra International ASII 7,895 18, Below 8,819 18, In line 8 Austindo Nusantara Jaya* ANJT Below Below 9 Bank Central Asia BBCA 7,722 16, In line 6,321 13, In line 10 Bank Danamon BDMN 2,760 6, Below 1,985 4, Below 11 Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 942 1, In line 747 1, In line 12 Bank Jatim BJTM 593 1, In line In line 13 Bank Mandiri BMRI 10,766 21, In line 8,295 17, In line 14 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,204 10, In line 4,278 8, In line 15 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 11,729 24, In line 10,152 20, In line 16 Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 918 2, Below 673 1, Below 17 Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN 1,481 2, In line 1,178 2, In line 18 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST 19 Bukit Asam BA 1,058 2, In line 870 1, In line 20 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,732 2, Above 1,557 2, Above 21 BW Plantation BWPT Below In line 22 Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP Above Above 23 Charoen Pokphand CPIN 1,978 4, Below 1,531 3, Below 24 Ciputra Development CTRA 733 1, In line In line 25 Ciputra Property CTRP Below Below 26 Erajaya Swasembada ERAA Below Below 27 Gajah Tunggal GJTL 770 1, In line 460 1, Below 28 Gozco Plantations GZCO (23) 57 na Below Below 29 Gudang Garam GGRM 3,231 6, In line 2,202 4, In line 30 Harum Energy* HRUM In line In line 31 Indocement Tunggal Prakasa INTP 2,955 6, In line 2,421 5, In line 32 Indosat ISAT 33 Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,213 2, In line 922 2, In line 34 Indomobil Sukses International IMAS In line In line 35 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 915 1, Below 489 1, Below 36 Jasa Marga JSMR 1,317 3, Below 761 2, Below 37 Malindo Feedmill MAIN In Line Below 38 Medco Energi* MEDC In line Below 39 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Below Below 40 PT Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 309 1, In Line In Line 41 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Above In line 42 Sampoerna Agro SGRO Below Below 43 Semen Indonesia SMGR 3,342 7, In line 2,585 5, In line 44 Supra Boga Lestari RANC 45 Surya Semestra Internusa SSIA 501 1, Below Below 46 Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 13,535 27, In line 7,125 14, In line 47 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE In line In line 48 Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC Below Below 49 Total Bangun Persada TOTL Below Below 50 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 3,736 7, Above 2,824 5, Above 51 United Tractors UNTR 2,946 6, In line 2,310 5, In line 52 Wijaya Karya WIKA 524 1, In line Below 53 Wintermar WINS In line Below 54 XL Axiata EXCL 1,452 3, Below 670 2, Below Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Research: Harry Su Senior Associate Director Head of Equities & Research Strategy, Consumer ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Associate Director Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Senior Research Manager Auto, Plantations, Heavy equipment, Property, Industrial estate ext 3608 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Stifanus Sulistyo Research Analyst Auto, Consumer, Telco, Media ext 3611 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Analyst Poultry, Telco, Aviation, Construction ext 3603 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Analyst Property, Industrial estate, Steel, Cement, Toll roads ext 3605 Jennifer Frederika Yapply Research Analyst Coal, Oil and gas, Metals, Construction ext 3606 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst, Transportation ext 3609 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Zefanya Angeline Halim Research Associate ext 3612 Nico Laurens Research Associate ext 3614 Laurensius Teiseran Research Associate ext 3601 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: (Foreign Institutional) (Domestic Institutional) (Surabaya Branch) Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Ricardo Silaen,CFA Equity Sales ext 2524 Siti Fathia Maisa Syafurah Equity Sales ext 2547 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Reynard M P reynard@bahana.co.id Equity Sales ext 2528 Angky Amarylis angky.amarylis@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2525 Jonathan Gregorius M.T Gregorius@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2546 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

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