Daily Focus. Indonesia. March 16, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Daily Focus. Indonesia. March 16, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at"

Daniella Clark
5 years ago
Views:

Indonesia Daily Focus Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.

1 Indonesia Daily Focus Renaldy Effendy For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5, MSCI EM HANG SENG 23, KOSPI 1, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 4, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 13, Copper 5, Tin 17, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 Growing Demand Favorable supply-demand dynamics Palm oil is one of the world s most produced and consumed oils represents 39% of world consumed edible oils. Indonesia and Malaysia are currently the two main producers of palm oil in the world accounting for 53% and 33% of global production as of 2014, respectively. This cheap, production-efficient and highly stable oil is used in a wide variety of food, cosmetic and hygiene products as well as biodiesel. Currently the CPO production in both countries is increasing compared to a year earlier (Malaysia climbed by 2.3% YoY to 19.6mn while Indonesian palm oil output has grown by 15% compared to 2013). This excess supply explains the CPO price weakness in 2014 to below RM2,000/tons level. Price of palm oil is affected by a number of factors: 1) level of supply, 2) level of demand, 3) weather condition and 4) government policy (i.e. Go Green by using biodiesel). Leading palm oil company Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) is an Indonesia -based agribusiness company primarily engaged in oil palm plantation and processing. Its products include crude palm oil (CPO), palm kernels, palm kernel oil (PKO) and palm kernel expeller (PKE). Its plantations and mills are located in Aceh, Riau, Jambi, Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Timur, Kalimantan Selatan, Sulawesi Barat and Sulawesi Tengah, Indonesia. Its revenue stems primarily from CPO (88.3%), palm kernel and derivatives (11.6%), and others (0.1%). AALI s market capitalization stands at IDR40.3tr representing 0.74% weight within the JCI. Growing demand will continue According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), global consumption exhibited steady growth of 7% p.a. over the past 20 years. Although demand from China and India are expected to slow down, domestic consumption should remain robust in Indonesia. About 66% of Indonesia s palm oil production is exported while 32% is consumed locally. As one of the biggest CPO producer, we think AALI will remain ring-fenced from this changing environment as revenue is domestic driven. In terms of production growth, the company targets 4-5% of CPO production growth this year and at the same time, it also aims to plant 6,000ha new palm oil plantation to rejuvenate its plantation profile. With a conservative strategy and local demand increase will drive price higher on the back of supplydemand mismatch and government policy. Investment recommendation We recommend AALI to investor look at the short term horizon. As of last trade on Friday, the company trades at 16.1x trailing P/E and 23.5% trailing ROE. 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/14 800

2 Local flashes WTON: Wika Beton targeting sales to grow 22% this year. After making the satisfactory achievement in last year, PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON) optimistic with the performance in During this year, company targeting to achieve sales growth of 22% and net profit of 11.6%. Puji Haryadi, WTON Corporate Secretary, said this year the company is targeting sales of IDR4trillion, higher than the previous year, amounting to IDR3.27trillion. (Kontan) SRIL: Export to 100 countries, Sri Rejeki Isman blessed by weakening of rupiah. As a textile exporter to 100 countries, PT Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk. (SRIL) claim to have benefited from the weakening of rupiah against US dollar. Finance Director SRIL Allan Moran Severino said that while the company's change its financial statements from rupiah into US dollars, the company still benefit from the weakening rupiah. (Bisnis Indonesia) TOBA: Toba Bara Sejahtera record a revenue growth. PT Toba Bara Sejahtera Tbk., coal company affiliated with Luhut Pandjaitan, recorded a revenue growth of 18.51% in 2014 to USD499.96million, from the previous year which amounted to USD421.84million. However,TOBA was not able to maintain its net profit performance. In the annual financial statements, the company's net profit fell slightly by 1.16% from USD18.54million to USD18.32million. (Bisnis Indonesia) LEAD: Logindo began its expansion in the second half of this year. Lower world oil prices make PT Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk (LEAD) cautious to do its expansion this year. Corporate Secretary LEAD Sundap Carulli said, the company will begin expansion in the second half while waiting for more favorable market conditions. This year, the company prepared a capital expenditure of USD80million. LEAD has secured funds from the issuance of global bonds worth USD50million issued in February. The fund will be used to spend four to five new ships. (Kontan) RAJA: Rukun Raharja get a loan from HSBC worth USD70million. PT Rukun Rahahja Tbk (RAJA) get a bank loan worth USD70million. The credit facility was derived from The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) Limited. Budiman Parhusip, Director of RAJA said the loan tenure of five years and signed on March 11, Later, the company will use the funds to repay some bank debt and capital spending for several subsidiaries. (Kontan) LTLS: Lautan Luas inject IDR20billion for subsidiary. PT Lautan Luas Tbk (LTLS) inject its subsidiary, PT Lautan Natural Krimerindo of IDR20billion on March 13, Herman Santoso, Director and Corporate Secretary of Lautan Luas, said on Friday (03/13/2015) in the disclosure information on Indonesia Stock Exchange, that the capital increase from the previous IDR82billion to IDR105billion. (Bisnis Indonesia) BBTN: BTN will add 370 new ATM machine. For efficiency, Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) increasing the number of ATM by hiring some machines. Eko Waluyo, BTN Corporate Secretary, said that it would add about ATM machines for And about 200 ATM is replacement of the new machine from the old ATM, while 170 ATM is the addition of a new machine. (Kontan) 2

Technical analysis Recommendation Resistance 5,485 Support 5,407 Close 5,426 Indicator GC = Golden-cross DC = Dead-cross UP = Up DN = Down NM = Normal Buy on Weakness Stoch DN MACD DN PSAR DN Volume

from the news abroad, foreign investors are expected to continue do net sell.

3 Technical analysis Recommendation Resistance 5,485 Support 5,407 Close 5,426 Indicator GC = Golden-cross DC = Dead-cross UP = Up DN = Down NM = Normal Buy on Weakness Stoch DN MACD DN PSAR DN Volume DN AC = Accumulation Dis = Distribution OB = Overbought OS = Oversold Investor Sentiment The weakening rupiah and the government's attitude towards the economy is still a focus of investors, apart from the news abroad, foreign investors are expected to continue do net sell. Daily Chart In last Friday trading, the index opened jumped but then continued to fall, all indicators were still showing weakness. We expect the index will decline to this day but limited. Intraday Chart Index on last Friday opened strong but immediately weighed down but thereafter tended sideways. Stochastic and MACD tends to fall but PSAR began to rise. Chart 1. Daily chart Chart 2. Intraday chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3

4 Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 12/15 12/29 1/12 1/26 2/9 2/23 3/9 (IDR) 13,800 13,300 12,800 12,300 11,800 11,300 Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute Relative D 1W 1M 1Y Chart 5. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 6. Energy price (USDmn) ,000-1, Note: The latest figure for India is March, 12 th ; 1 Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India 366 (USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,500 2, ,300 2, ,100 2, ,900 12/14 12/14 1/15 1/15 2/15 2/15 3/15 Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /14 1/15 2/15 3/15 Chart 8. Precious metal price Silver Gold Platinum /14 1/15 2/15 4

5 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 14, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 11, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 12, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 6, , Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,660 44, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 4,230 24, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 1,165 5, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 680 4, N/A N/A Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 2,025 37, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 990 3, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 3,110 5, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 3,405 20, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,770 18, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,670 16, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 7,325 64, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,800 84, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,000 8, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 39, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 14,625 85, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 780 5, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 27,200 24, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 52, , Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,180 5, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 7, , Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,990 11, Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 3,600 17, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 4,450 37, N/A Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,130 22, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 7,025 47, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,300 44, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 975 9, N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 995 7, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 10,425 24, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 22,200 81, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,655 12, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 14,225 84, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5

6 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2, IIKP IJ 2,500 8, Mining 1, GJTL IJ 1,300 4, Basic-Industry MEGA IJ 2,400 16, Miscellaneous Industry 1, TRIO IJ 1,630 7, Consumer Goods 2, MPPA IJ 4,330 23, Property & Construction PNLF IJ , Infrastructure 1, SMRA IJ 1,660 23, Finance MTFN IJ 267 8, Trade ITMG IJ 17,300 19, Composite 5, ISAT IJ 4,130 22, Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close TLKM IJ 1.0 2,955 BBRI IJ ,750 MEGA IJ 6.7 2,400 GGRM IJ ,800 IIKP IJ ,500 BBCA IJ ,100 MPPA IJ 3.1 4,330 EMTK IJ ,975 SMRA IJ 2.5 1,660 INTP IJ ,200 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index :15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.5% 79.4% 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.2% 10:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index :45pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 4:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.2B 35.4B 17th-24th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 29.4% Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Daily Focus. Indonesia. February 23, Growing fuel consumption

Daily Focus. Indonesia. February 23, Growing fuel consumption Indonesia Daily Focus Mimi Halimin +62-21-515-1141 mimi.halimin@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI