Deutsche Konjunktur 2012

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Deutsche Konjunktur 2012"

Nickolas Britton Griffith
6 years ago
Views:

1 Frankfurt/M., 25 Januar Deutsche Konjunktur Stefan Kooths Forecasting Center, Office Berlin

2 GDP: Moderate expansion ahead =1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

3 Short run: Germany on the brink of a technical recession IfW Recession Probability Indicator

4 Medium run: The boom on hold for one year 26 Bn. Euro Output gap GDP Potential output Forecast Annual data, volumes; output gap in percent of potential output -4-5

5 Manufacturing: Capacity utilization near normal levels 95 Bbk Order-Capacity-Index (rhs) Ifo capacity utilization average I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

6 Robust domestic demand in the driver s seat 6 age points Stocks -6 External trade Gross fixed capital formation -6 Consumption Forecast Annual data, volumes, growth contributions

7 Orders received by industry: Clear downward trend 14 25=1 Total From abroad Monthly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted, 3-month moving average

8 Output in the production sector: Robust construction, weakening manufacturing =1 Manufacturing Construction Monthly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted, 3-month moving average

9 Business climate reversal = Situation Expectations Monthly data, seasonally adjusted

10 IfW-BVL Logistics Composite Indicator Index normal level Climate Situation Expectations Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4

11 Logistics Activity in Industry and Trade Index normal level Climate Situation Expectations Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4

12 Rescue packages for Euro member countries Threat for Germany s stability? of all respondents 7% 6% Logistics Service Providers Industry and Trade 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 12 % yes no no answer Question: The German Bundestag along with the other Euro member countries has approved the extended scope for the EFSF rescue package. A further leveraging of the EFSF via access to ECB credit facilities is currently under discussion. Do you feel that the ongoing extension of the emergency measures 12 and the hereby incurred increasing risks are a threat to economic stability in Germany as the largest guarantor?

13 Business sentiment: Germany and rest of Euro Area drifting apart 2 Index Germany Euro Area without Germany Euro Area Monthly data, seasonally adjusted; Source: European Commission, IfW calculations

14 Financial stress due to European debt crisis IfW-Financial Stress Indicator for Germany 6 5 Index Great Recession Recession 1982 Stock market crash 1987 EMS crisis Russia crisis Dotcom bubble European debt crisis

15 Exports and world production expectations 25 Index YoY export growth rate World production expecations (rhs) Quarterly data, volumes expecations computed from 41 countries weighted by shares of German exports -4

16 World production and export expectations 1 Index World industrial production (YoY growth rate) Export expectations (rhs) Quarterly data, volumes computed from 41 countries weighted by shares of German exports -4

17 Manufacturing: Orders from abroad 4 Inflow (YoY growth rate) Index 2 3 Level (rhs) Quarterly data, volumes -7

18 Exports hit mainly by euro area recession =1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

19 Investment cycle laid off Fixed capital formation Output gap (rhs) Share in Nominal GDP Growth (rhs) Forecast Annual data, volumes; output gap in percent of potential output -15

20 Company funding Bond yields Spread Corporate Government 8 6 Lending standards Past three months Next three months Monthly data Corporate bonds: maturing within 3 years; Government bonds: maturing within 5 years Quarterly data

21 M&E investment: Wait-and-see dampens cyclical momentum = QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted -6-7

22 Constructions driven by residential demand = QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted -2-3

23 Germany: Happy consumers Consumer Sentiment Index 15 Index Euro Area Euro Area without Germany Germany

24 Consumer spending reflects stable saving rate 18 25= QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast -1 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

25 Disposable income of private households ,2 % + 6,8 % + 3,9 % Net property income 31,5% Net monetary social benefits 24,8% + 1,9 % + 2,8 % + 3,3 % Disposable Income + 3,1 % + 2,6 % + 3,1 % + 2,8 % 25 Net wages and salaries 43,7% + 2,1 % + 3, % 21 shares (segments), current prices, change over previous year (boxes)

26 GDP and key components Volumes, change over previous year in percent GDP Private consumption Public consumption M&E investment Construction Exports Imports

27 Public finance: Consolidation continues Budget Balance Debt Forecast Annual data; In relation to nominal GDP in percent -12

28 but at not so ambitious speed Maximum structural federal deficits according to national debt brake (bn. Euro) Basis: Budgetary plan summer 21 Basis: Actual deficit 21 Basis: Actual deficit 21 and re-estimation of potential output 28

29 Employment at an all-time high 42, Mill. Persons QoQ change Level % 1 persons +.5 % +.5 % ,5 2 41, ,5 5 4, -5 39,5-1 Forecast 29 39, -15 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

30 total hours worked above pre-crisis levels 17 25=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

31 and labor productivity back on trend 11 25= QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

32 Unemployment heading for 2.5 million 5, Mill. Persions QoQ change Level T 1 Persons T T ,5 1 4, 5 3, , -15 2, , -25 Forecast -3 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted, (BA)

33 Moderate Inflation =1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level Forecast I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

34 fueled more and more domestically 1 Unit labor cost Effective nominal wage rate CPI Forecast Annual data, change over previous year

35 35

Deutschland: Asiens Ingenieur, Europas Motor, Garant des Euro?

Frankfurt/M., 2. Februar Deutschland: Asiens Ingenieur, Europas Motor, Garant des Euro? Dr. Stefan Kooths ing Center GDP: Slower pace ahead 114 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) 15 1 112