Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Tuesday, 10 April 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,154.1 (-0.3%) Turnover: IDR2.7b (-21.3%) Foreign net sell: IDR86b (-46.0%) SPOTLIGHT For details please refer to our separate report(s) Banking Sector Update 4Q11 results: Higher interest income; Normalized provisioning Strong loan growth with improved quality; Low LDR support 1Q12 & beyond: Low loan growth; Stay Neutral; Prefer big banks Japfa Comfeed Indonesia 17% lower 2012 earnings mostly priced in; 1Q12 earnings rebound Commercial farm margins: Improvement in Short-term chicken consumption buoyed by fuel price hike delay TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS March s consumer confidence index declined 4% m-m INDUSTRY SBY has submitted 14 candidates for BOC in OJK CORPORATE CPIN to allocate IDR1-1.5t for 2012 capex PTBA reported former Lahat Regent to the corruption eradication commission XL aims 1.3m additional subscribers from Edusolutions program Pefindo downgraded ELTY s ratings to BBB MEDC s rating raised by Pefindo BNBR to divest subsidiaries worth IDR124b BEST & BEST-W: To be listed today Pertamina EP to return 30% of its working areas to the government ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11A 12F 13F 11A 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) Op.prof.grwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.1) (1.5) (1.0) EPS growth (%) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG (x) IDR/USD 9,100 8,800 8,750 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) M2 growth (%) Div. yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 20,593.0 (1.0) 11.7 (15.2) IDX (Indonesia) 4,154.1 (0.3) KLCI (Malaysia) 1,591.3 (0.5) KOSPI (Korea) 1,997.1 (1.6) 9.4 (6.2) Nikkei (Japan) 9,546.3 (1.5) 12.9 (2.3) PCOMP (Phil.) 5,038.9 (0.3) SENSEX (India) 17,222.1 (1.5) 11.4 (12.5) SET (Thailand) 1,182.4 (1.3) SHCOMP (China) 2,285.8 (0.9) 3.9 (24.6) Shenzhen (China) (1.1) 5.7 (28.8) STI (Singapore) 2,960.1 (0.9) 11.9 (6.6) TWSE (Taiwan) 7,600.9 (1.4) 7.5 (14.5) VNI (Vietnam) (2.9) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3, (18.0) DAX (Germany) 6, (6.1) Dow Jones (USA) 12,929.6 (1.0) FTSE 100 (UK) 5, (5.3) IBOV (Brazil) 62,923.2 (1.2) 10.9 (8.9) NASDAQ (USA) 3,047.1 (1.1) RTSI (Russia) 1,612.6 (0.6) 16.7 (24.1) S&P 500 (USA) 1,382.2 (1.1) ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 7,470 (0.4) IIT US (IDR) 5,053 (0.4) (12.4) (9.3) BUMI LN (IDR) 86, (32.0) (53.5) Coal (USD/t) 107 (0.2) (4.9) (12.8) Corn (USD/mtn) (12.2) Coffee (USD/t) 3, (12.2) (25.7) Copper (USD/t) 8, (12.6) Cotton (USD/t) 1, (2.9) (56.1) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 1, DOC (IDR/kg) 4, Gold (USD/oz.) 1, Iron ore (USD/mtn) (16.2) Milk (USD/t) (10.6) (2.8) Nickel (USD/t) 18, (2.1) (30.6) Oil (USD/barrel) (10.1) Pulp (USD/t)* 841 (0.4) 0.8 (14.2) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 3,714 (0.2) Soybean (USD/t) 1, (5.1) Steel (USD/t) (9.3) Sugar (USD/t) (1.6) 4.7 Tins (USD/t) 23, (28.0) Wheat (USD/t) (4.6) (31.5) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD (1.0) 2.5 USD/EUR (1.1) 9.5 IDR/USD 9,175 9, JPY/USD SGD/USD (0.3) JIBOR (%) (0.8) (2.5) BI rate (%) (0.3) (1.0) TD 1 month (%) (0.8) (1.2) CDS (bps) (17.1) 26.4 Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 ECONOMICS March s consumer confidence index declined 4% m-m Bank Indonesia s consumer confidence index declined 4% m-m to points in March due to the government s earlier plan to raise subsidized fuel prices in April. Bahana: Since the government has delayed the fuel price hike, consumer confidence is likely to reverse up as purchasing power remains resilient in the short-term. Additionally, we are of the view that subsidized fuel price hike is unlikely to occur in 1H12 due to two reasons. First, the current downtrend in global oil prices will ease the pressure on the government s state budget. Second, we believe it would too late for the government to raise fuel prices by June given inflationary pressure would be on the rise leading up to July s back-to-school and the advent of the fasting month. (Indonesia Finance Today) INDUSTRY SBY has submitted 14 candidates for BOC in OJK President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has submitted 14 candidates to the House of Representatives (DPR) to fill 7 seats for Board of Commissioners in Indonesia s Financial Services Authority (OJK). The following are the candidates submitted by the President: Name Current/ Previous position 1 Muliaman Hadad Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia 2 Mulia P. Nasution Former General Secretary of Financial Ministry 3 Nurhaida Head of The Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency (Bapepam-LK) 4 Yunus Husein Former Chairman of Indonesian Financial Transaction and Analysis Center (PPATK) 5 Hekinus Manao Former General Inspector of Finance Ministry 6 Sahala Lumban Gaol Expert field staff of Public Policy of State Owned Enterprise Ministry 7 Achjar Iljas Former Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia 8 I Wayan Agus Mertayasa Former Vice Director of Bank Mandiri 9 Ogi Prastomiyono Human Capital Compliance of Bank Mandiri 10 Nelson Tampubolon International Director of Bank Indonesia 11 Rijana Tirtoso Executive Vice President Internal Audit Coordinator of Bank Mandiri 12 Riswinandi Vice Executive Director of Bank Mandiri 13 Peter Benyamin Stok Chief Commissioner of Bank Negara Indonesia 14 Kusumaningtuti Sandriharmy Director of Bank Indonesia Setiono Meanwhile, Members of the Political Corruption Division in the Indonesian Corruption Watch (ICW), Apung Widadi, stated that from the 14 candidates submitted by the President, 5 of the candidates submission are suspected to be influenced by Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo, who also acts as the chairman of the selection committee. ICW also suspects that one candidate was involved in the case of Bank Century and another candidate was involved in illegal shares trading transaction. (Investor Daily, Kompas) CORPORATE CPIN to allocate IDR1-1.5t for 2012 capex Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN-UR-IDR:2,675-TP:UR) plans to allocate IDR1-1.5t for 2012 capex. Tjiu Thomas Efendy, CPIN s president director, stated that the capex will be used to finance the expansion of its animal feed segment, DOC segment and processed food segment. Hadijanto Kartika, the company s corporate secretary, stated that the capex will be financed by internal cash and each segment will be allocated 30% of the total capex. He also added IDR500b will be used to build a food processing plant in North Sumatera which will be completed in 2-3 years. Bahana: While we revisit our 2012 forecast, we will take into account the IDR1-1.5t capex compared to our current assumption of IDR800b. (Indonesia Finance Today) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 PTBA reported former Lahat Regent to the corruption eradication commission Bukit Asam (PTBA-BUY-IDR20,300-TP:26,600) reported to the corruption eradication commission (KPK) corruption allegation of former Lahat Regent, Harunata, whom provided mining permits to several companies including Mustika Indah Permai (MIP), which was recently acquired by Adaro Energy (ADRO-BUY- IDR1,900 TP:2,525). Bahana: This would create negative sentiment for ADRO. However, we believe the sentiment would be temporary as the legal process would take time. Additionally, the corruption allegation of the former Lahat Regent would not alter the final judicial review by the Supreme Court related to the mining permit dispute between PTBA and the Lahat Regency. (Bisinis Indonesia, Kontan) XL aims 1.3m additional subscribers from Edusolutions program XL Axiata (EXCL-HOLD-IDR5,000-TP:5,500) aims 3.5m in youth subscribers from its partnership with high schools and colleges. Subscribers from this program reached 2.2m last year. Titus Dondi, EXCL Vice President Enterprise & Carrier, was quoted in saying that the company aims for 50-51m of subscribers this year. Bahana: The company subscribers target is in line with our estimate of 50m subscribers. (Bisnis, Investor Daily) Pefindo downgraded ELTY s ratings to BBB Pefindo has downgraded the company s rating, bond and syariah bond owned by Bakrieland (ELTY-REDUCE- IDR120-TP:IDR110) to BBB from BBB+ with negative outlook on the back of weak cash flow. Pefindo stated that the outlook will be upgraded to Stable if ELTY succeeds to divest its toll road subsidiary and show stronger cash flow. However, Pefindo believes that ELTY will have the capability to pay its IDR90b syariah bond due July (Kontan) MEDC s rating raised by Pefindo Local rating agency Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) has upgraded Medco Energi Internasional s (MEDC-BUY-IDR2,100-TP:IDR3,200) corporate debt rating outlook from negative to stable. Additionally, MEDC also has idaa- corporate credit rating from Pefindo. (The Jakarta Globe) BNBR to divest subsidiaries worth IDR124b Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR-NOT RATED-IDR50) to divest 1% Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP-HOLD- IDR295-TP:IDR300) stakes, 0.3% Bakrieland Development s (ELTY-REDUCE-IDR120-TP:IDR110) stakes and 0.75% Energi Mega Persada s (ENRG-NOT RATED-IDR184) stakes. This translates to IDR306, IDR136 and IDR207 per share selling prices respectively, worth of IDR124b, to be used for debt settlement. (Investor Daily) BEST & BEST-W: To be listed today Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate, an industrial estate industry owned by the Arga Manunggal group owner of Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI-BUY-IDR590-TP:IDR880), will be a new listing today on the IDX with offering price at IDR170 per share. The company will offer 1.765b shares (20.1% stake) raising IDR300.05b. Every 2 new shares will obtain 1 warrant with exercise price of IDR200. Ciptadana Securities is the lead underwriter. (IDX) Pertamina EP to return 30% of its working areas to the government Pertamina EP, a subsidiary of Pertamina, intends to return around 30% of its working areas to the government. Pertamina EP s President Director Syamsu Alam explained the working areas to be returned are the fields that are geologically difficult to be developed and have high risk. Apart from geological factors, some areas are located in the center of the city, such as Jakarta and Surabaya, which could not be developed operationally. At the moment, Pertamina EP has 138,611 km2 working areas or around 48% of the total working areas in Indonesia. (Indonesia Finance Today) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) TARGET Up/(Downside) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING PRICE Potential (%) 4/5/2012 4/4/2012 CHANGE (%) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14, ,000 13, Agung Podomoro Land APLN HOLD Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,100 2, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE HOLD 1,270 (8.6) 1,390 1, BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,730 1, Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD 360 (1.4) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY 1, Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (11.8) 5,100 5, Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN HOLD 1, ,260 1, Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 4, ,650 3, Astra International ASII BUY 86, ,250 74, United Tractors UNTR BUY 35, ,400 31, Wintermar Offshore WINS BUY Adhi Karya ADHI BUY Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY 1, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 3, ,725 2, Citra Marga Nusaphala CMNP BUY 2, ,990 1, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 10,450 (41.6) 17,900 17, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM * * * 7,550 7, Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 9, ,950 7, Bank Danamon BDMN HOLD 5,275 (18.2) 6,450 6, Astra Agro Lestari AALI HOLD 22,000 (3.9) 22,900 22, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,575 3, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,750 4, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,200 5, Delta Dunia Makmur DOID BUY 1, Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 10, ,200 8, Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 26, ,300 20,350 (0.2) Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (6.2) 19,450 19,500 (0.3) IDX IDX 4,154 4,166 (0.3) Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 6, ,950 4,975 (0.5) Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,900 1,910 (0.5) Indocement INTP BUY 20, ,050 18,150 (0.6) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,000 44,250 (0.6) Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA BUY 4, ,925 3,950 (0.6) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 4, ,575 3,600 (0.7) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 4, ,225 3,250 (0.8) Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI BUY 8, ,350 6,400 (0.8) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,160 1,170 (0.9) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 3, ,825 2,850 (0.9) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA REDUCE 800 (27.3) 1,100 1,110 (0.9) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3, ,675 2,700 (0.9) XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,000 5,050 (1.0) Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,450 2,475 (1.0) Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1,750 (2.8) 1,800 1,820 (1.1) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN HOLD (1.1) AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 3,150 (22.2) 4,050 4,100 (1.2) Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 13, ,900 12,050 (1.2) Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 8, ,950 7,050 (1.4) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY (1.4) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,900 7,000 (1.4) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,380 1,400 (1.4) Bank Bukopin BBKP HOLD (1.4) Indomobil Sukses IMAS BUY 14,800 (3.9) 15,400 15,650 (1.6) Bakrieland Development ELTY REDUCE 110 (8.3) (1.6) Timah TINS REDUCE 1,500 (16.7) 1,800 1,830 (1.6) Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP HOLD (1.7) Harum Energy HRUM BUY 10, ,100 8,250 (1.8) Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD (1.9) Gajah Tunggal GJTL BUY 3, ,550 2,600 (1.9) Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY (2.0) Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (79.2) (2.0) Kalbe Farma KLBF REDUCE 3,000 (16.1) 3,575 3,650 (2.1) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1, (2.2) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1,570 (7.6) 1,700 1,740 (2.3) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,900 4,025 (3.1) Bumi Resources BUMI REDUCE 2,000 (12.1) 2,275 2,350 (3.2) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY (3.3) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP # of sharesfree float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* P/BV (x) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) Revenue (IDRb)* Opt. profit (IDRb)* Net profit (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) , ,147 1, nc nc AIRPORT SERVIC N CASS BUY , , ,147 1, nc nc AUTO & EQUIP. OW 456, , ,928 33,659 39,899 30,153 35, ASII BUY 75,250 86,500 4, , , ,806 20,774 24,090 20,252 23, UNTR BUY 31,400 35,000 3, , ,402 78,706 9,552 11,647 7,142 8, nc nc IMAS BUY 15,400 14,800 1, , ,063 28,967 1,058 1,427 1,379 1, GJTL BUY 2,550 3,375 3, , ,803 13,971 1,364 1,600 1,016 1, nc DOID BUY 580 1,000 8, , ,169 9, , na na BANKING OW 690, , ,216 70,794 82,060 55,871 64, na na na na BBCA BUY 7,950 9,500 24, , ,914 33,926 15,112 17,346 12,358 14, na na na na BMRI BUY 6,950 8,500 23, , ,350 48,742 16,702 19,722 13,023 15, na na na na BBRI BUY 6,900 8,150 24, , ,555 54,053 20,195 23,142 16,481 19, na na na na BBNI BUY 3,900 5,000 18, , ,269 25,469 8,256 9,635 6,651 7, na na na na BDMN HOLD 6,450 5,275 9, , ,416 21,443 6,186 7,193 3,992 4, na na na na BJBR BUY 1,160 1,250 9, , ,210 4,882 1,669 1,944 1,292 1, na na na na BBTN HOLD 1,260 1,380 8, , ,296 6,110 1,599 1,853 1,206 1, na na na na BBKP HOLD , , ,199 3,590 1,075 1, na na na na CEMENT OW 137, ,007 38,515 10,830 12,679 8,581 10, nc nc INTP BUY 18,050 20,000 3, , ,444 17,268 5,241 5,992 4,079 4, nc nc SMGR BUY 11,900 13,600 5, , ,563 21,247 5,589 6,687 4,502 5, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 25, ,817 38,435 3,503 4,293 1,638 2, TOWR BUY 14,000 14,600 1, , ,993 2,297 1,041 1, WIKA BUY 880 1,100 6, , ,669 11, , nc nc PTPP BUY , , ,287 8, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc ADHI BUY , , ,946 13, , CONSUMER OW 386, , ,922 28,696 32,137 19,123 21, UNVR HOLD 19,450 18,250 7, , ,339 30,688 6,179 7,238 4,636 5, GGRM BUY 57,250 71,000 1, , ,327 51,881 7,643 8,580 5,704 6, nc INDF BUY 4,750 6,000 8, , ,716 53,101 8,043 8,504 3,714 4, nc nc KLBF REDUCE 3,575 3,000 10, , ,875 15,994 2,368 2,702 1,780 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 5,200 7,200 5, , ,636 23,818 3,070 3,416 2,251 2, nc nc MAPI BUY 6,350 8,400 1, , ,211 8, RALS BUY 820 1,000 7, , ,335 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 3,575 4,800 1, , ,026 1, nc MEDIA 15, ,681 3,097 1,433 1,716 1,083 1, nc nc SCMA BUY 8,200 10,450 1, , ,681 3,097 1,433 1,716 1,083 1, nc nc MINING N 372, , ,173 56,860 63,149 36,590 40, ADRO BUY 1,900 2,525 31, , ,494 46,405 12,116 14,504 5,884 7, BYAN REDUCE 17,900 10,450 3, , ,549 15,669 4,276 4,290 2,891 2, nc nc BUMI REDUCE 2,275 2,000 20, , ,050 42,321 13,538 13,773 6,009 5, (0.7) ITMG BUY 44,000 49,900 1, , ,282 25,077 7,082 7,662 5,136 5, nc nc PTBA BUY 20,300 26,600 2, , ,953 12,822 4,914 5,047 4,044 4, nc nc INCO HOLD 3,225 4,000 9, , ,645 12,183 4,607 5,592 3,411 4,209 (7.9) nc nc HRUM BUY 8,100 10,950 2, , ,952 10,444 3,302 3,826 2,257 2, nc nc ANTM HOLD 1,800 1,750 9, , ,590 10,953 2,287 2,421 1,917 1,980 (2.5) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,021 10,518 3,207 4,321 2,506 3, INDY BUY 2,450 3,200 5, , ,182 6, ,602 1, TINS REDUCE 1,800 1,500 5, , ,692 9,833 1,231 1, , nc nc OIL & GAS N 109, ,857 54,466 9,571 11,120 7,342 8, PGAS BUY 3,575 4,400 24, , ,412 24,934 8,454 9,656 6,552 7, nc nc AKRA HOLD 4,050 3,150 3, , ,482 28, , nc nc MEDC BUY 2,100 3,200 3, , , PLANTATIONS N 96, ,247 44,065 12,023 13,210 7,954 8, AALI HOLD 22,900 22,000 1, , ,233 12,098 3,538 3,772 2,535 2, nc nc SIMP HOLD 1,380 1,500 15, , ,385 14,269 3,437 3,707 1,818 1, LSIP BUY 2,825 3,250 6, , ,735 4,993 2,064 2,229 1,773 1, nc nc SGRO BUY 3,650 4,100 1, , ,357 3, , nc nc BWPT BUY 1,730 1,950 4, , ,094 1, UNSP HOLD , , ,843 6,877 1,283 1, (22.1) GZC O HOLD , , POULTRY OW 51, ,722 44,017 5,680 6,539 4,330 5, CPIN BUY 2,675 3,100 16, , ,020 23,994 4,180 4,840 3,466 4, nc nc JPFA BUY 3,925 4,500 2, , ,702 20,023 1,500 1, , PROPERTY OW 106, ,537 33,538 7,623 9,230 5,162 6, BSDE HOLD 1,390 1,270 17, , ,171 3,896 1,057 1, , nc nc LPKR BUY 820 1,110 23, , ,960 5,692 1,154 1, ASRI HOLD , , ,906 1, nc CTRA BUY , , ,875 3, nc SMRA BUY 1,700 1,570 6, , ,604 3, APLN BUY , , ,330 5,142 1,164 1, ELTY REDUCE , , ,003 2, (13.7) SSIA REDUCE 1, , , ,030 3, nc nc CTRP BUY , , nc KIJA BUY , , ,969 2, LPCK BUY 2,725 3, , ,091 1, SHIPPING N 1, ,009 1, WINS BUY , , ,009 1, TELCOS N 229, , ,007 31,512 35,026 16,047 18, TLKM ** 7,550 ** 20, , ,367 83,213 23,589 25,944 11,885 13, EXCL BUY 5,000 5,500 8, , ,366 21,774 4,948 5,761 3,201 4, ISAT REDUCE 5,100 4,500 5, , ,667 23,028 3,224 3,481 1,661 1, BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2,992 (249) (160) (700) (679) 10.2 (3.0) (9.8) (10.1) (17.6) (20.7) TINPLATE N ,686 1, nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, nc nc TOLL ROAD N 37, ,660 7,565 3,341 3,923 2,171 2, JSMR BUY 4,950 6,500 6, , ,694 6,488 2,790 3,309 1,772 2, CMNP BUY 1,990 2,000 2, , , nc nc Market OW 2,720,412 2,946 1,168,947 1,329, , , , , Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 04/10/ :01 UK Lloyds Employment Confidence MAR % % 04/10/ :01 UK RICS House Price Balance MAR % -10.0% % 04/10/ :30 AU NAB Business Confidence MAR % 04/10/ :30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) MAR /10/ :00 GE Trade Balance FEB 12.0B B 04/10/ :00 JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) MAR P % 04/10/ :30 AU Foreign Reserves MAR A$49.1B 04/10/ :45 FR Industrial Production (YoY) FEB -1.20% % 04/10/ :45 FR Manufacturing Production (YoY) FEB -1.70% % 04/10/ :30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence APR % % 04/10/ :30 UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) FEB % 04/10/ :30 US NFIB Small Business Optimism MAR % % 04/10/ :00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR /10/ :00 US JOLTs Job Openings FEB % 04/10/ :00 US Wholesale Inventories FEB /10/2012 JN BOJ Target Rate Apr % 04/10/2012 CH Trade Balance (USD) MAR -$3.15B - - -$31.48B 04/10/2012 CH Exports YoY% MAR /10/2012 CH Imports YoY% MAR /10/2012 HK Foreign Currency Reserves MAR $294.7B 04/10/2012 SP Spain Business Confidence 1Q (14) Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ FX reserves (USDb) Jan 2/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Sep Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 1/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb Unemployment rate (%) Des 2/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Des 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Des 1/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jan 2/ GDP (%, y-y) 4Q 2/ Reference Rate (%) Feb 2/ Unemployment rate (%) Jan 2/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time AGM Sugih Energy 04/11/12 15:00 AGM Pelat Timah Nusantara 04/12/12 10:00 AGM Trias Sentosa 04/12/12 14:00 EGM Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada 04/12/12 09:30 AEGM Holcim Indonsia 04/13/12 14:00 AGM Tigaraksa Satria 04/13/12 14:00 AGM Tempo Inti Media 04/17/12 14:45 AGM Astra Agro Lestari 04/17/12 14:00 AGM Bank Agroniaga 04/18/12 09:30 AGM Bank Negara Indonesia 04/18/12 10:00 AGM Nippon Indosari Corpindo 04/19/12 10:00 AGM Timah 04/19/12 10:00 AGM Bank Tabungan Negara 04/19/12 10:00 AEGM Bank International Indonesia 04/19/12 14:00 EGM Bakrie Teleccom 04/19/12 09:30 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Bank Danamon 4, % 4/20/2012 4/24/2012 5/8/2012 BDMN IJ Bank Jabar Banten 1, % 4/18/2012 4/20/2012 5/4/2012 BJBR IJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia 7, % 4/27/2012 5/1/2012 5/15/2012 BBRI IJ Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst Tuesday, 10 April :30 CPIN company visit Frederick D. Tanggela & Aditya Eka Wednesday, 11 April :00 GZCO company visit Leonardo H. Gavaza & Giovanni Aristo Thursday, 12 April :00 TOTL analyst meeting Natalia Sutanto PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 1/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 1/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 2/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, Q11 total 5,227 4 MBSS 4/6/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 4/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 5/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 5/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 5/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 6/9/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 6/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property Q11 total 5, TIFA 7/8/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 7/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 7/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 7/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 7/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/8/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 14, PADI 1/9/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 1/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution ESSA 2/1/12 Surya Esa Perkasa Petroleum gas BEST 4/10/12 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Industrial estates Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Express Transindo Utama Transportation Pertamina Drilling Service Oil & gas services Geothermal Energy Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Aviation service Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Coal mining 1, Cipaganti group Transportation Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance MNC Sky Vision Media 2, Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Waskita Karya Construction Bahtera Niaga Internasional Shipping Telesindo Shop Telecommunication PLN Enjiniring Electricity Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Asuransi Mitra Maparya Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Bank Jatim Banks 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Mitraniaga Banks Hutama Karya Construction Toba Bara Sejahtera Mining 3, Angkasa Pura I Airport services GarudaFood Food & beverage Intan Baruprana Heavy equipment financing Mitratel Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indo Krakatau Wajatama Steel Bank Sumut Banks Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation total 39,681 Grand total 65,356 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 1/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 1/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 1/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 1/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 2/1/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 4/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 5/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 6/3/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 6/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 6/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 7/1/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 7/8/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 7/5/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 7/6/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 9/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/2/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/4/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/3/11 Panin Financial Financial DKFT 12/2/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/9/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 12,470 Grand total 53,117 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 4Q11 Results Round ups Operating profit Net profit No Company Code (IDRb) (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) 1 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 3,196 3, , ,406 2, , Adhi Karya ADHI Adaro Energy* ADRO 1,284 1, , AKR Corporindo AKRA Aneka Tambang ANTM 1,985 2, , ,910 1, , Agung Podomoro Land APLN Astra International ASII 17,832 17, , ,785 17, , Alam Sutera Realty ASRI Bank Central Asia BBCA 13,297 1, , ,818 10, , Bank Bukopin BBKP Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 7,243 7, , ,646 5, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 17,622 17, , ,083 13, , Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 1,526 1, , ,119 1, , Bank Danamon BDMN 5,235 5, , ,336 3, , Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 1,275 1, , , , Bank Mandiri BMRI 16,364 15, , ,246 12, , Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN 2,533 2, , ,828 1, , Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE Bakrie Telecom BTEL (174) (258) (100) 58.0 (783) (635) (375) Bumi Resources* BUMI 1,124 1, , BW Plantation BWPT Bayan Resources BYAN 2,331 3, , ,832 2, , Citra Marga Nushapala CMNP Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 2,985 3, , ,386 2, , Ciputra Development CTRA Ciputra Property CTRP Delta Dunia Makmur DOID (153) 122 na 132 na 28 Bakrieland Development ELTY (19) (119) (16.0) (152) (12.5) 29 Xl Axiata EXCL 4,665 4, , ,830 3, , Gudang Garam GGRM 6,839 6, , ,894 4, , Gajah Tunggal GJTL 1,010 1, , Gozco Plantations GZCO Harum Energy HRUM 2,219 2, , ,464 1, , Indofood CBP ICBP 2,641 2, , ,975 1, , Indomobil Sukses International IMAS Vale Indonesia* INCO Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 6,719 6, , ,077 2, , Indika Energy INDY ,111 1, , Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 4,418 4, , ,597 3, , Indosat ISAT 2,830 2, , , , Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,107 1, , Jasa Marga JSMR 2,281 2, , ,339 1, , Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,968 2, , ,482 1, , Lippo Cikarang LPCK Lippo Karawaci LPKR PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,993 2, , ,702 1, , Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Medco Energy* MEDC Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL (15) 24 (60.1) 24 (61.1) (19) 18 (107.5) 28 (68.8) 52 Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 7,722 8, , ,933 6, , Bukit Asam PTBA 3,665 4, , ,088 3, , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI Sampoerna Agro SGRO Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 3,242 3, , ,667 1, , Semen Gresik SMGR 4,892 4, , ,925 3, , Summarecon Agung SMRA Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA Timah TINS 1,318 1, , , Total bangun Persada TOTL Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 22,360 21, , ,965 11, , Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR Bakrie Sumatra Plantation UNSP 1,100 1, , United Tractors UNTR 7,615 7, , ,901 5, , Unilever Indonesia UNVR 5,455 5, , ,163 3, , Wijaya Karya WIKA Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Results relative to Bahana estimates and consensus Operating profit Net profit Above In line Below Above In line Below Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. AALI AALI AALI AALI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADRO ADRO ADRO ADRO AKRA AKRA AKRA AKRA ANTM ANTM ANTM ANTM APLN APLN APLN APLN ASII ASII ASII ASII ASRI ASRI ASRI ASRI BBCA BBCA BBCA BBCA BBKP BBKP BBKP BBKP BBNI BBNI BBNI BBNI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBTN BBTN BBTN BBTN BDMN BDMN BDMN BDMN BJBR BJBR BJBR BJBR BMRI BMRI BMRI BMRI BORN BORN BORN BORN BSDE BSDE BSDE BSDE BTEL BTEL BTEL BTEL BUMI BUMI BUMI BUMI BWPT BWPT BWPT BWPT BYAN BYAN BYAN BYAN CMNP CMNP CMNP CMNP CPIN CPIN CPIN CPIN CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRP CTRP CTRP CTRP DOID DOID DOID DOID ELTY ELTY ELTY ELTY EXCL EXCL EXCL EXCL GGRM GGRM GGRM GGRM GJTL GJTL GJTL GJTL GZCO GZCO GZCO GZCO HRUM HRUM HRUM HRUM ICBP ICBP ICBP ICBP IMAS IMAS IMAS IMAS INCO INCO INCO INCO INDF INDF INDF INDF INDY INDY INDY INDY INTP INTP INTP INTP ISAT ISAT ISAT ISAT ITMG ITMG ITMG ITMG JPFA JPFA JPFA JPFA JSMR JMSR JSMR JMSR KIJA KIJA KIJA KIJA KLBF KLBF KLBF KLBF LPCK LPCK LPKR LPKR LPKR LPKR LSIP LSIP LSIP LSIP MAPI MAPI MAPI MAPI MEDC MEDC MEDC MEDC NIKL NIKL NIKL NIKL PGAS PGAS PGAS PGAS PTBA PTBA PTBA PTBA PTPP PTPP PTPP PTPP RALS RALS RALS RALS ROTI ROTI ROTI ROTI SGRO SGRO SGRO SGRO SIMP SIMP SIMP SIMP SMGR SMGR SMGR SMGR SMRA SMRA SMRA SMRA SSIA SSIA SSIA SSIA TINS TINS TINS TINS TLKM TLKM TLKM TLKM TOTL TOTL TOTL TOTL TOWR TOWR TOWR TOWR UNSP UNSP UNSP UNSP UNTR UNTR UNTR UNTR UNVR UNVR UNVR UNVR WIKA WIKA WIKA WIKA WINS WINS WINS WINS Source: Company, Bahana, Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Construction, Toll Road ext 3601 Frederick Daniel Tanggela Research Analyst Coal Mining, Poultry ext 3603 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Irwan Budiarto Research Analyst Oil and Gas ext 3606 Stifanus Sulistyo Small cap Research Analyst ext 3611 Isna Alfiathi Research Executive ext 3607 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Associate ext 3611 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Zefanya Angeline Research Associate ext 3612 Dealing Room: Yolanda Sondak Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545 Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 12

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