Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 6, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 8-18 (ratio scale) day moving average % (517) -16.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% -5.8% (62) (34) -5.8% (19) % (28) -12.4% (96) -13.3% () -.2% (13) -.2% (64) Note: Corrections are declines of % or more, while minor ones are 5%-% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 2. S&P 5 INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s Page 3 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 14 Figure 3. S&P 5 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs. I/B/E/S earnings data) (percent, quarterly) Q S&P 5 Operating Profit Margin I/B/E/S data (12.8) S&P data (12.4) Source: Standard & Poor s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS). 25 Figure 4. S&P 5 REVENUES (yearly percent change) Q S&P 5 Revenues Per Share (8.5) Aggregate* (6.8) * S&P quarterly data, not per share. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 4 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 Figure 5. US TREASURY -YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Interest s -Year Bond Yield (2.91) 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.8) Fed Funds Target (2.13) Source: Federal Reserve Board. 12/ Figure 6. YIELD CURVE (basis points) -Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target (79) 2-Year Treasury (11) Source: Federal Reserve Board. - Page 5 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 Figure 7. GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa) Global M-PMIs Total (52.) Developed Economies (52.8) Emerging Economies (5.8) Nov Source: JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM Figure 8. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Nov Q S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management Page 6 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 26 24 Figure 9. S&P 5 FORWARD P/E RATIO (weekly) Forward Price/Earnings Ratio* (15.9) / * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv Figure. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (=, daily) Oil Price Peak QE Terminated Oil Price Trough Trump Wins 12/ & Tariffs on China Threatened * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 7 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 11. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) day moving average * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 12. S&P 5 ENERGY REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 8 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 Figure 13. S&P 5 ENERGY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 9 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 Copyright (c) 18. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@

Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections

Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections Market Briefing: S&P 0 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections December 29, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our