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1 ve updated t 23 October 2018 Economic & Financial Analysis Global Economics ING Economic Forecasts Bloomberg: INGX<GO> GDP Forecasts %YoY 3Q18F 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 2018F 2019F 2020F World (USD) US Japan Germany France UK Italy Canada Australia New Zealand Eurozone Austria Spain Netherlands Belgium Ireland Greece Portugal Switzerland Sweden Norway Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Turkey Serbia Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine Azerbaijan Brazil Mexico China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand James Knightley Chief International Economist London james.knightley@ing.com *World GDP figure calculated from countries covered in INGF ING Global Economics Team Page 2 CPI and Oil Price Forecasts Page 5 Bond Yield Forecasts Page 3 Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts Page 6 FX Forecasts Page 4 3M Interest Rate Forecasts research.ing.com 1 SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & ANALYST CERTIFICATION
2 CPI Forecasts, pa %YoY 3Q18F 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 2018F 2019F 2020F World US Japan Germany France UK Italy Canada Australia New Zealand Eurozone Austria Spain Netherlands Belgium Ireland Greece Portugal Switzerland Sweden Norway Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Turkey Serbia Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine¹ Azerbaijan Brazil Mexico China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Oil Price Forecasts, avg US$/bbl Brent WTI ¹Quarterly forecast are eop; yearly forecast are average over the year 2
3 Policy Rate Forecasts (end period) (%) 23/10/2018 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F US¹ Eurozone Japan UK Switzerland Sweden Norway Canada Australia New Zealand Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Turkey Serbia Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine Azerbaijan Brazil Mexico China* India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Thailand ¹Lower level of 25bp range 2 One week repo rate *PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate 3
4 3-month Interest Rate Forecasts (end period) (%) 23/10/2018 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F US Eurozone Japan UK Switzerland Sweden Norway Canada Australia New Zealand Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Turkey Serbia Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine Azerbaijan Brazil Mexico China* Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea* Malaysia Philippines* Singapore Taiwan* Thailand month CD rate for Korea, T-bill rate for the Philippines and CP rate for Taiwan; 3-month bank acceptance futures for Canada; 3-month bank bill for Australia and 3-month interbank rates for others. Source: ING 4
5 10Y Bond Yield Forecasts (end period 10Y unless stated) (%) 23/10/2018 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F US: Fed funds M Y Y Y Y EU12: ECB refi* M Y Y Y Y Japan France Italy Spain UK Netherlands Belgium Austria Ireland Portugal Switzerland Sweden Norway Finland Canada Australia New Zealand Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Brazil Mexico China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand *Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields 5
6 Foreign Exchange Forecasts (end period) 23/10/2018 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F Euro EUR/USD Japan USD/JPY UK GBP/USD Japan EUR/JPY UK EUR/GBP Canada USD/CAD Australia AUD/USD New Zealand NZD/USD Switzerland EUR/CHF Sweden EUR/SEK Norway EUR/NOK Denmark EUR/DKK Bulgaria EUR/BGN Croatia EUR/HRK Serbia EUR/RSD Czech Republic EUR/CZK Hungary EUR/HUF Poland EUR/PLN Romania EUR/RON Turkey USD/TRY South Africa USD/ZAR Israel USD/ILS Russia USD/RUB Kazakhstan USD/KZT Ukraine USD/UAH Azerbaijan USD/AZN Brazil USD/BRL Mexico USD/MXN Argentina USD/ARS Chile USD/CLP Colombia USD/COP Peru USD/PEN China USD/CNY Hong Kong USD/HKD India USD/INR Indonesia USD/IDR Korea USD/KRW Malaysia USD/MYR Philippines USD/PHP Singapore USD/SGD Taiwan USD/TWD Thailand USD/THB
7 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank NV ( ING ) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. The producing legal entity ING Bank NV is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank NV is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank NV, London Branch. ING Bank NV, London Branch is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). ING Bank NV, London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements. 7
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exports of goods annual change (%)
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