Analyst s Handbook: Health Care

Transcription

1 Analyst s Handbook: October 4, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 5 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Earnings Growth & Valuation 4 S&P 5: 5 S&P 5: (cont) 6 S&P 5/4/6 YTD October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

3 S&P Figure 1. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE STOCK PRICE INDEX* 1/ day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics..5 Figure 2..5 S&P 5 HEALTH CARE (as a ratio of S&P 5).4 9/ Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 199, then weekly. Monthly data an average of Hospital Management, Medical Products, and Pharmaceutical industry ratios..1 Page 1 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

4 Earnings 8 65 Figure 3. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 25, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 2 Figure 4. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* Sep NERI Jul 8.4 Aug 11.4 Sep * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

5 75 65 Figure 5. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 2 9/ Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 25, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Figure 6. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (1.6) / * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 25, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 3 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

6 2 Figure 7. Earnings Growth & Valuation S&P 5 HEALTH CARE STRG, STEG, & LTEG (percent) LTEG* (11.6) STEG* (9.7) STRG* (5.5) 9/ Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. Monthly data through 25, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 8. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE VALUATION Forward P/E* (16.5) 9/ /27 Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (1.4) * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 5 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 4 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

7 S&P 5: 12 1 Figure 9. S&P 5 HEALTH CARE 1/4 S&P 5 HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT (ABT BAX BCR BDX BSX EW HOLX ISRG MDT RMD STJ SYK VAR ZMH) 1/ S&P 5 BIOTECHNOLOGY (ABBV ALXN AMGN BIIB CELG GILD REGN VRTX) 1/4 S&P 5 HEALTH CARE FACILITIES (HCA UHS) 1/ S&P 5 HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS (ABC CAH HSIC MCK PDCO) S&P 5 HEALTH CARE SERVICES (DGX DVA ESRX LH) 1/ / day moving average Page 5 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

8 Figure 1. S&P 5 MANAGED HEALTH CARE (AET ANTM CI CNC HUM UNH) 1/ S&P 5 PHARMACEUTICALS (AGN BMY ENDP JNJ LLY MRK MYL PFE PRGO ZTS) S&P 5: (cont) 1/4 S&P 5 HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY (CERN) 1/ S&P 5 LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS & SERVICES (A ILMN PKI Q TMO WAT) 1/ day moving average Source: Standard and Poor s Corporation. Page 6 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

9 S&P 5/4/6 YTD All Sectors Figure 4. S&P 5 LargeCap S&P 4 MidCap S&P 6 SmallCap Sector Biotechnology Distributors Equipment Facilities Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 218 Services Supplies Technology Life Sciences Tools & Services Source: Standard & Poor s Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 218 Page 7 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

10 S&P 5/4/6 YTD 8 Figure 5. S&P 5 LargeCap 8 S&P 4 MidCap 8 S&P 6 SmallCap Managed Pharmaceuticals Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 8 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

11 4 Figure 13. S&P HEALTH CARE S&P 5 (193) S&P 4 (234) S&P 6 (3215) 1/ Figure 14. S&P HEALTH CARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 5 4 S&P 5 (461) S&P 4 (4294) S&P 6 (2486) / Page 9 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

12 12 Figure 15. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS S&P 5 (563) S&P 4 (392) S&P 6 (392) / Figure 16. S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT 8 6 S&P 5 (1541) S&P 4 (2485) S&P 6 (6569) 1/ Page 1 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

13 8 Figure 17. S&P HEALTH CARE SERVICES 8 6 S&P 5 (638) S&P 4 (445) S&P 6 (54) / Figure 18. S&P MANANGED HEALTH CARE S&P 5 (2328) S&P 4 (1195) S&P 6 (4538) 1/ Page 11 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

14 2 Figure 19. S&P HEALTH CARE PHARMACEUTICALS 2 15 S&P 5 (77) S&P 4 (1285) S&P 6 (15139) 1/ Page 12 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

15 1 Figure 2. S&P HEALTH CARE (yearly percent change) S&P 5 (15.) S&P 4 (31.1) S&P 6 (45.2) 1 5 1/ Figure 21. S&P HEALTH CARE BIOTECHNOLOGY (yearly percent change) 4 3 S&P 5 (-2.8) S&P 4 (4.3) S&P 6 (3.) / Page 13 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

16 15 1 Figure 22. S&P HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 (-1.1) S&P 4 (-44.6) S&P 6 (-4.4) / Figure 23. S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT (yearly percent change) 15 1 S&P 5 (29.2) S&P 4 (4.8) S&P 6 (39.) 1 5 1/ Page 14 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

17 5 Figure 24. S&P HEALTH CARE SERVICES (yearly percent change) S&P 5 (57.7) S&P 4 (28.7) S&P 6 (16.4) / Figure 25. S&P MANANGED HEALTH CARE (yearly percent change) S&P 5 (32.7) S&P 4 (81.2) S&P 6 (31.7) / Page 15 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

18 3 Figure 26. S&P HEALTH CARE PHARMACEUTICALS (yearly percent change) 3 2 S&P 5 (9.5) S&P 4 (-19.3) S&P 6 (93.2) 2 1 1/ Page 16 / October 4, 218 / Analyst s Handbook: www.

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