Regional Refining Outlook

Transcription

1 Regional Refining Outlook Implications for Crude Demand Platts Crude Summit 15 May 213 David Wech JBC Energy GmbH 13 th May 213 Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training

2 Disclaimer All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, forecast, predict, think, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC s third party sources provide data to JBC on an as-is basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to reliance on or use of their data by any party. 15 May 213 Slide 2

3 Overview 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, Reforming Coking Cat Cracking Global CDU & Conversion Title [unit] Additions [' b/d] Other Conversion Hydrocracking CDU Capacity 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 3, Demand growth of main products (gasoline, gas oil, jet, naphtha, fuel oil) 2, 2, 1, 1, -1, 27 Stock 27 Stock -1, Additions Additions 15 May 213 Slide 3

4 Overview Asia NWE USGC JBC Energy Margins by Region [$/bbl] JBC Energy margins are based on an average of selected margin calculations. The margins are derived from three different set-ups, two crude baskets and three yield patterns for each region Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts data ytd 15 May 213 Slide 4

5 US Approximate US Crude Price Change Over Last 6 Months (May vs. Nov) [$/bbl] WCS November vs May: +$15 Syncrude November vs May: +$14 ANS November vs May: no change Bakken November vs May: +$11 PADD V ESPO (CIF) November vs May: - $6 Bakken vs ESPO: -$12 PADD II & IV WTI November vs May: +$9 WTS November vs May: +$19 PADD III Bakken vs Bonny Light: -$15 Bakken vs LLS: -$13 PADD I Bonny Light (CIF) November vs May: -$4 Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts, Reuters Mars November vs May: -$3 LLS November vs May: -$1 15 May 213 Slide 5

6 US Incentive to Run Mesa-3 and Competitors in a complex USGC Setup [$/bbl] NB: The incentive to run a crude is calculated by adding an extra 5% to our USGC crude basket. Mesa vs. Basrah Mesa vs. Isthmus Mesa vs. Mars Mesa vs. Arab Medium Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Haverly Systems and Platts May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May May 213 Slide 6

7 US 8 Dumbbell Effect - PADD3 Average Refining Yields [%] 7 PADD3 Blend Light/Heavy Blend Light/Heavy blend consists of equal shares of Eagle Ford 5, Eagle Ford 4, Bakken, Maya, Merey and WCS Light Distillates Middle Distallates Fuel Oil Coke/Asphalt 15 May 213 Slide 7

8 CDU Utilisation [%] US 11 Utilisation Rates of Monthly USGC Utilisation Refineries Rate [%; API] Monthly Utilisation Rate Utilisation by secondary capacity Utilisation by light product output 6 Source: JBC Energy, EIA Average Gravity of Crude Intake [ API] 15 May 213 Slide 8

9 US 6, 5, Total Products Net-Imports - Right Scale Total Products Exports Total Products Imports US Products Trade Flows [' b/d] 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, -1, Source: EIA -2, Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan May 213 Slide 9

10 US / Global Y-o-Y Changes to U.S. Crude Oil Imports & Production [' b/d] 2,5 2, Canada & Mexico Central & South America Europe Asia Africa Middle East FSU East U.S. Crude Production 1,5 1, , -1,5-2, -2,5 Source: EIA, JBC Energy calculations February & March 213 figures are JBC Estimates based on weekly EIA data Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan May 213 Slide 1

11 Europe Bonny Light Incentive in Medium Setup w. Complex Basket in NWE [$/bbl].3.2 Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light Bonny Light vs Forties Bonny Light vs Urals NWE Bonny Light vs Flotta Source: JBC Energy calculation based on H/Comet and Platts, Galbraith's, CR Weber The incentive to run a crude is calculated by adding an extra 5% to the complex European crude basket May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May May 213 Slide 11

12 Europe / Global 8. Simple vs Complex Baseloads [$/bbl] NWE Asia Med USGC Source: JBC Energy based on Platts data May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May May 213 Slide 12

13 Europe 1,4 US Total Product Trade with Europe [' b/d] 1,2 1, Total Products Net-Imports US Exports to Europe -4 US Imports from Europe The chart displays exports of all products Source: EIA -6 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13? 15 May 213 Slide 13

14 Europe OECD Europe - Refinery Intake by Stream [' b/d] 17, Crude NGLs Other Feedstocks 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: IEA Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan May 213 Slide 14

15 Europe / Global Refinery Utilisation Rates vs. Total Product Net-Imports in Various Countries 1% Refinery Utilisation [%] 7 Total Product Net-Imports [' b/d] 9% 6 8% 5 7% 6% France Spain 4 5% Ukraine Pakistan Australia Indonesia 3 Mexico South Africa 4% Chile 2 3% 1 2% 1% % May 213 Slide 15

16 Asia / Global 9 Middle Eastern Gasoline Exports by Destination [' b/d] Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa North America Central & South America 15 May 213 Slide 16

17 Asia / Global 25 Middle Eastern Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination [' b/d] Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa North America Central & South America 15 May 213 Slide 17

18 Asia South Korean Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination [' b/d] 7 6 Europe North America C&S America Africa Middle East FSU East Unknown OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia Source: IEA Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan May 213 Slide 18

19 Asia Asian Demand Growth Indicator [' b/d] 1,2 1, Gasoline Gasoline - 12 Month Mov. Avg. Gas Oil/Diesel Gas Oil/Diesel - 12 Month Mov. Avg Source: IEA, official statistics, JODI, JBC Energy calculations Figures between Mar-13 to Jun-13 are JBC Energy estimates Data represent over 8% of Asian demand in each product Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan May 213 Slide 19

20 Conclusions 5, 4, Gasoline, Jet/Kero & Gas Oil/Diesel Net Importers [' b/d] Rest of World New Exporters* 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, New Exporters: The USA China, India & South Korea Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE -5, May 213 Slide 2

21 Conclusions 6, 4, Key Transport Fuel Importers & Exporters [' b/d] Other Middle East & Africa Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE Other Asia China, India & South Korea Other America United States Americas Asia Mideast & Africa Europe FSU East 2, -2, -4, Included are Imports of: gasoline jet/kero gas oil/diesel -6, May 213 Slide 21

22 Conclusions 14, Total Global Imports: Crude + Products [' b/d] 45, 13, 44, 12, 43, 11, 42, 1, 41, 9, 4, 8, 39, 7, Total Product Imports (Gasoline + Jet/Kero + Gas Oil/Diesel) Total Crude Imports - right scale 38, 6, , 15 May 213 Slide 22

23 Conclusions 3, Yearly Crude Intake Change by Region [' b/d] 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5-2, -2,5 CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST ASIA FSU EAST EUROPE May 213 Slide 23

24 Conclusions 14, Crude Net-Imports per Region [' b/d] EUROPE OECD ASIA SOUTH ASIA 12, EAST ASIA NORTH AMERICA 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, May 213 Slide 24

25 Thank You! Research Energy Studies Consulting Training 15 May 213 Slide 25