US Economic Briefing: Regional Business Surveys

Transcription

1 US Economic Briefing: Regional Business Surveys ch 29, 19 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Regional M-PMIs 1 National vs Regional M-PMIs 2 Regional Business Conditions Indexes 3 Regional New 4 Regional Production 5 Regional 6 Chicago PMI 7 Dallas Fed Survey 8 Kansas City Fed Survey 9 New York Fed Survey Philadelphia Fed Survey 11 Richmond Fed Survey 12 Regional Business Indexes ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

3 Figure 1. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* Regional M-PMIs Composite NY & Philly (=8.7) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=8.6) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=8.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=9.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=9.9) New NY and Philly (=2.5) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=2.4) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=4.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=4.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=4.1) NY and Philly (=11.7) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=12.2) NY, Philly, Dallas, and Richmond (=14.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas ( (=14.7) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=13.8) * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. - Page 1 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

4 7 Figure 2. National vs Regional M-PMIs NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* 6 5 National Composite M-PMI (Feb=54.2) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond ( (=9.1) NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs - 5 National M-PMI (Feb=55.5) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (=4.1) US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs National M-PMI (52.3) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (14.7) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond. -5 Page 2 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

5 8 7 Figure 3. Regional Business Conditions Indexes CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER INDEX* NEW YORK GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX** DALLAS CURRENT GENERAL BUSINESS INDEX** PHILADELPHIA CURRENT ACTIVITY INDEX** RICHMOND FED COMPOSITE INDEX** KANSAS CITY COMPOSITE INDEX** *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics Page 3 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

6 Regional New 9 8 Figure 4. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** New New DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** New New RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY** 6 - New New *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics Page 4 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

7 Regional Production Figure 5. CHICAGO* Production DALLAS** Production KANSAS CITY** (one-month change, sa) Production *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

8 Regional 7 Figure 6. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY** *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics Page 6 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

9 Chicago PMI 8 7 Figure 7. CHICAGO PMI SURVEY Order Backlogs Deliveries Business Barometer Production Prices Paid New Inventories Source: Haver Analytics. Page 7 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

10 Figure 8. DALLAS FED BUSINESS SURVEY Current General Business Index Dallas Fed Survey Unfilled Current Company Outlook Index Production Prices Paid: Raw Materials Prices Received: Finished Goods New Volume of Shipments Capacity Utilization Source: Haver Analytics Page 8 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

11 Kansas City Fed Survey 6 Figure 9. KANSAS CITY FED BUSINESS SURVEY Production Backlog of Jul New Volume of Shipments - - Finished Goods Inventories Prices Paid Prices Received Source: Haver Analytics Page 9 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

12 6 Figure. NY FED BUSINESS SURVEY* New York Fed Survey - - General Business Conditions Index Workweek New Shipments Inventories Delivery Time Prices Received * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Page / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

13 Philadelphia Fed Survey 6 5 Figure 11. PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS SURVEY* Current Activity Index Shipments Inventories Unfilled Current Prices Received * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Page 11 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

14 Richmond Fed Survey Figure 12. RICHMOND FED BUSINESS SURVEY - - Composite Index Wages Vendor Lead Time - - New Shipments Backlog Capacity Utilization Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Page 12 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

15 Figure 13. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL COMPOSITE MANUFACTURING INDEXES* New York and Philadelphia (=8.7) and Dallas (=8.6) Dallas, and Richmond (=8.9) Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City (=9.1) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=9.9) * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutshce Borse Group. Figure 14. REGIONAL NEW ORDERS MANUFACTURING INDEXES New York and Philadelphia (=2.5) and Dallas (=2.4) Dallas, and Richmond (=4.1) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (=4.1) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=6.1) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Bourse Page 13 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

16 Figure 15. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING INDEXES New York and Philadelphia (=11.7) and Dallas (=12.2) Dallas, and Richmond (=14.9) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (=14.7) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=13.8) Figure 16. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* 6 5 National Composite M-PMI (Feb=54.2) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond ( (=9.1) Page 14 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

17 8 Figure 17. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs Regional Business Indexes National M-PMI (Feb=55.5) - Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (=4.1) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Figure 18. US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs National M-PMI (52.3) - 25 Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (14.7) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Page 15 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

18 Figure 19. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management. Regional Business Indexes S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) (5.4) M-PMI (54.2) Feb Page 16 / ch 29, 19 / Regional Business Surveys

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