02/02/2011

Transcription

1 2/2/211 WEEKLY GASOLINE FUNDAMENTAL-PRICE-BASIS OUTLOOK A Fundamental Petroleum Trends Weekly Report Lehi German Tel: Wednesday, February 2, 211 Product RBOB Conventional Outlook Market NYH Gulf W Coast NYH Gulf Grp III Gulf Coast Price Outlook Chicago W Coast Weeks Forward Wholesale demand decreased -83, bpd last week, on the continued seasonal downturn. The seasonal low in demand should be reached in the next 2-wks. The latest 4-wk average demand was +, bpd above last year. Imports spiked +29, bpd last week to a record level. This increase points to an improvement in import economics. The increase in supply and low seasonal demand led to a +6.2 million barrel stock build. Stocks builds were significant in all major regional markets. Basis declined across nearly all regional markets, due in part to the roll forward in futures contracts. Basis levels ended the week near the mid range in most markets, with the exception of the Gulf and West Coast which were each at the low end of the historic range. Expect basis weakness in NYH and Chicago markets as supplies improve, with near term weakness in the Gulf on excess supply. Basis levels in Group III should also trend lower as refiners return to operation and demand drops to a seasonal low. RBOB New York Harbor basis to trend lower on improved supplies and low seasonal demand. West Coast (Los Angeles) basis to trend higher on winter refinery maintenance. Conventional New York Harbor basis trend lower on improved supplies and low seasonal demand. Chicago basis to trend lower as supplies increase during a period of weak demand. Group III to trend lower as refiners return to operation from unplanned maintenance. Gulf Basis to exhibit near term weakness on excess supplies, then trend higher. West Coast (Los Angeles) basis to trend higher on winter refinery maintenance. Gulf Coast Price The spike in imports should point to a shift in the level of gasoline imports going forward, and indicate a significant improvement in East Coast supplies. Inclement weather should further reduce near term demand during the seasonal low. IF higher imports are indeed at hand then the gasoline market faces price weakness for the balance of the quarter. Disclaimer - The information contained on this website and in all its reports reflects the opinion of Fundamental Petroleum Trends. Futures and commodities trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for every investor. Information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and is intended for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation to sell or buy, or trade in any commodity mentioned herein. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past results are not indicative of future results. Charts are developed by Fundamental Petroleum Trends from EIA, NWS, other public data and proprietary models unless otherwise noted and credited. Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 6 Lehi German Tel:

2 2/2/211 1 Gasoline and Related Price Spreads Conventional Group III Conventional Chicago Conventional Gulf Coast RBOB NYH RBOB Gulf Coast Conventional Gulf Coast 1:1 Crack WTI Crude Oil $/bl Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 6 Lehi German Tel:

3 2/2/211 Gasoline Import Economics 1.4 U.S. Imports Finished + Blend Stocks th Month Futures RBOB less Prompt Rotterdam Spot Conv Imports of Finished Products NYH Conv - Rotterdam(1ppm) Conv bpd Imports of Blend Stocks Conventional Gasoline Singapore - Rotterdam(1ppm) Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 6 Lehi German Tel:

4 2/2/ Stocks PADD 1 Central Atlantic Gasoline Supply by Region PADD Stocks PADD 2 PADD Stocks PADD 3 PADD Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 6 Lehi German Tel:

5 2/2/211 Gasoline Supply Summary PADDs Stocks wk Stock Change Finished Product Imports bpd mm bbls U. S. Wholesale Demand + Imports (Finished) Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page of 6 Lehi German Tel:

6 2/2/ Refinery Imports Finished + Blend stocks PADD Gasoline Supply RBOB Los Angeles RBOB Los Angeles - Singapore Conventional bpd Stocks Conventional Los Angeles Do not distribute without authorization. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 6 Lehi German Tel: