North American Storage and Transportation Trends

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1 North American Storage and Transportation Trends Brian Busch Director, Oil Markets and Business Development Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

2 What we do 2 Current State of North American Storage 2015, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

3 Genscape: How do they do it? Genscape uses thermal and visual imagery to measure storage volumes. Genscape provides measured data on pipeline flows. Genscape monitors activity at refineries to detect shutdowns, upsets, and flaring. Genscape Vesseltracker monitors vessel movements around the globe.

4 Monitoring Stats North America Crude Oil Storage Crude Oil Pipeline Crude by Rail Refineries Product Tanks (Gasoline, Jet, Diesel, Ethanol) NGL Processing NGL Pipeline 342 mn bbls, weekly ~1900 tanks/week 12.5 mn bpd, 2x/hr 50 pipelines 2 mn bpd loading, daily 1.7 mn bpd unloading, daily 13.6 mn bpd, 12x/hr (76% US) 470+ units 65 mn bbls, weekly ~800 tanks 59 units, 12x/hr 2 mn bpd, 2x/hr

5 Monitoring Stats Europe Crude Oil Storage Crude Oil Pipeline Refineries Product Tanks (Gasoil, Jet) 342 mn bbls, weekly ~200 tanks/week Forties Supply Chain 5.1 mn bpd, 12x/hr 120+ units Begium Czech Republic England France Germany Netherlands Scotland Spain 10.7mn MT, weekly ~800 tanks

6 Cushing A History and a Look Forward 6 Current State of North American Storage 2015, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

7 Cushing, OK

8 Genscape vs EIA Storage Methodology Barrels 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000,000-4,000,000-6,000,000-8,000,000-10,000,000 Monthly Cushing Stocks Change Comparison EIA Change Genscape Change

9 A Blast from the Past Feb

10 Cushing Storage /13/16, 80.64% /14/15, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Added ~4.4mn bbls capacity since April 2015 Highest utilization and storage level on May 13, 2016: 80.64%, mn bbls Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 mn bbls Aug-16 Cushing Storage Cushing Capacity Cushing Capacity Utilization

11 WTI Term Structure WTI Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 11

12 Price, Trends, Technicals and Fundamentals

13 Total Cushing Storage Expansion Since mn bbls

14 Cushing Connected Pipeline Capacity Changes 1, Mbpd Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Genscape Monitoring Total: 91% Outgoing: 86% Incoming: 95% 14

15 Cushing Incoming Pipeline Capacity Capacity Pipeline (bpd) 2014 Pony Express 230,000 mn bpd Centurion South Reversal 60,000 Flanagan South 600,000 White Cliffs Twin 74, Pony Express Expansion 90,000 Magellan SCOOP 70, White Cliffs Expansion 65,000 15

16 Cushing Outgoing Pipeline Capacity Pipeline Capacity (bpd) 2013 mn bpd Seaway Expansion 250, TransCanada Gulf Coast 700,000 Centurion South Reversal -60, Seaway Twin 450,

17 Cushing Connected Pipeline Utilization 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Incoming Utilization Outgoing Utilization 17

18 How fast could the glut empty? mn bbls Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Cushing Storage Projected Storage Cushing storage levels have increased at an average rate of 40,000 bpd since Oct Empty storage space on Cushing to Gulf Pipelines is 500, ,000 bpd Cushing could drain about 3.5mn bbls/week to minimums in ~4 months Cushing drained an average 1.25mn bbls/week in 2013 when Seaway was fully reversed 18

19 North American Production 19 Current State of North American Storage 2016, 2015, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

20 Oil Rigs Have Increased +96 Since Reaching Bottom at 323 in Mid-May 1,800 Oil Rig Forecast No. of Rigs 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Bottomed at 323 in Mid-May 96 Rigs added Since Mid-May, Expect another 103 to be added by year-end 7/29/2016 Fcst Actuals Source: Spring Rock as of 7/29 Main Forecast 20

21 U.S. Crude Oil Production Is Declining, But Will Start to Grow Again Mid-2017 Mb/d 1,500 1, Year on Year Change Mb/d 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 U.S. Production Forecast Production Peaked in April at 9.6 MMb/d Set to decline to 8.4 MMb/d by mid , ,000 - U.S. Total US Fcst as of 7/29/2016 Source: Spring Rock 21

22 Canadian Supply Forecast Revised Down, But Still Expecting Growth From Oil Sands 6,000 Current forecast vs. 08/01/2014 Mb/d 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Mb/d Mb/d Bitumen SCO Heavy Light+Med Cond Prev (08/01/2014) Short term conventional forecast downward revision alongside significant oil sands permit pushbacks Source: Spring Rock 22

23 Where is the crude going: Imports into U.S. Canadian exports to US (Mb/d) WC Exports vs. Takeaway Capacity ENB Clipper Exp (+230 Mb/d) - Pipes will start to fill even with decline in conventional production - Given our supply forecast, rail will be needed in late 2018 unless ENB has means to increase throughput - Rail will likely be priced into differentials as market becomes tighter Heavy Int/Light Eff. Pipeline Takeaway Capacity 23

24 PADD 3 and Total US Crude Stocks? 24 Current State of North American Storage 2016, 2015, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

25 PADD 3 Storage mn bbls Genscape monitors ~55% PADD 3 Capacity LOOP = 67-69mn bbls capacity 0 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jun 2016 Aug 2016 St. James Texas Gulf Coast West Texas 25

26 PADD 3 Capacity Growth mn bbls mn bbls Beaumont- Nederland Corpus Christi Houston Midland-Basin St. James Existing Projected Existing Projected 26

27 US Storage 80% 73.93% Capacity Utilization *Aug. 5, 2016 Available Capacity *Adjusted for pipeline fill, assumes 80% utilization limit Aug. 5, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 68.11% 66.68% 62.89% 63.61% 60.89% 60.27% 63.83% 65.47% PAD D 1 PAD D 2 PAD D 3 PAD D 4 PAD D 5 20% 10% % PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 US EIA Utilization Aug 5 Genscape Utilization Aug 5 27

28 US Year Over Year Total Crude Stocks

29 Price Effect of Excess Supply NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures Electronic (Front Month) 12 EIA Crude Oil Production Domestic Production 33.5 Crude Oil Production, OPEC Total $ $ /30/2014, $ $ $60.00 mn bpd 6 7/25/2014, $ $ $

30 Cushing Year Over Year Crude Stocks

31 US Exports mn bbls Western Europe United Kingdom South America Mediterranean East Asia Caribbean Canadian East Coast

32 It s Not Just Crude Stocks Setting Records 32 Current State of North American Storage 2016, 2015, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.

33 R 33

34 Gasoline Stocks Year over Year 25 Genscape NYH Stocks 260 EIA Total Motor Gasoline Stocks mn bbls mn bbls

35 US Total Crude and Products Year Over Year 1,500 1,400 1,300 mn bbls 1,200 1,100 1,

36 To request a free trial or learn more, visit Genscape.com/URL Brian Busch Director, Oil Markets and Business Development bbusch@genscape.com info@genscape.com US: EU:

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