Emerging Trends in Petroleum Markets

Transcription

1 Emerging Trends in Petroleum Markets For Defense Logistics Agency, Worldwide Energy Conference Washington, D.C. By T. Mason Hamilton, Petroleum Markets Analyst U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Overview U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product exports U.S. regional markets overview Example: PADDs 1 & 3 (East Coast and Gulf Coast) U.S. motor gasoline market Short-Term Energy Outlook Questions 2

3 U.S. crude oil exports have grown, but the rate of growth is decelerating Monthly U.S. crude oil exports thousand barrels per day U.S. crude oil exports year-over-year change thousand barrels per day 800 May, 2016: 684,000 b/d Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly 3

4 U.S. crude production volumes have declined and are forecasted to only grow slowly in the near term U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History Federal offshore GOM and Alaska Lower 48 (excluding Gulf of Mexico) Forecast U.S. Energy Information Administration, March Short-Term Energy Outlook 4

5 While most U.S. crude oil exports still go to Canada, other destinations have expanded U.S. crude oil exports thousand barrels per day % 94% 92% 58% annual percent of crude oil exports to Canada crude oil exports to countries other than Canada crude oil exports to Canada Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly 5

6 Aside from Canada, there are no clear preferred markets for U.S. crude exports 2016 U.S. Crude oil exports (excludes Canada) thousand barrels per day Netherlands Curacao China Italy United Kingdom South Korea Singapore Colombia Japan Peru France Marshall Islands Switzerland Spain Other Destinations Netherlands Bahamas Bahamas Curacao Curacao Panama Liberia 23.6 Netherlands Singapore 38.2 Marshall Marshall Islands Islands Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly 6

7 Ship-to-ship transfers can mask final destinations of crude oil exports Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 7

8 Low tanker rates have enabled opportunistic crude oil exports Tanker rates (dirty) monthly average dollars per barrel Arabian Gulf to Singapore (80 DWT or approx 0.5 million barrels) Arabian Gulf to Singapore (260 DWT or approx 1.7 million barrels) Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Note: Deadweight tons (DWT) is a measure of a ship s capacity to carry a cargo. 1 metric ton is equal to 7.33 barrels of crude oil. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg LP. 8

9 In 2016, the United States exported 9 times more petroleum products than crude oil U.S. crude oil and petroleum product exports million barrels per day crude oil total petroleum products Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual, Petroleum Supply Monthly. 9

10 A majority of U.S. motor gasoline exports go to Mexico and Central and South America U.S. motor gasoline exports by destination (January 2014 December 2016) thousand barrels per day North America (Canada, Mexico, Bahamas) Eastern Europe and Russia Western Europe Middle East Central and South America Africa Asia and Oceania Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly. 10

11 A 54% of U.S. distillate fuel exports go to Central and South America Mexico largest single destination U.S. distillate exports (January 2014 December 2016) thousand barrels per day 1500 Central and South America North America (Canada, Mexico, Bahamas) Asia and Oceania Eastern Europe and Russia Western Europe Africa Middle East Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly. 11

12 New EIA regional market studies examine transportation fuels markets at a sub-padd level Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 12

13 Pipelines and water movements link production and consumption markets 13

14 The 9 market regions in PADDs 1 & 3 vary significantly in both size and how they are supplied 2014 regional transportation fuel refinery production and consumption thousand barrels per day East Coast (PADD 1) New England Central Atlantic Southeast Florida refinery production consumption Texas Gulf Coast 0.5 Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Texas Inland Louisiana Gulf Coast N. Louisiana-Arkansas New Mexico refinery production consumption 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4, Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on ICF 14

15 U.S. Gasoline market 2016 set new record for gasoline demand U.S. finished motor gasoline product supplied million barrels per day Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Petroleum Supply Annual. 15

16 U.S. gasoline market the retail price spread between premium gasoline versus regular gasoline has almost doubled in past seven years U.S. average retail gasoline price spread (premium minus regular) dollars per gallon Premium - Regular Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Price Update. 16

17 Short-Term Energy Outlook Crude oil prices West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dollars per barrel Historical spot price STEO price forecast NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Mar 2, Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March

18 Short-term energy outlook Gasoline prices U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices dollars per gallon Price difference Retail regular gasoline Crude oil Forecast 0.00 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March

19 Thank you For more information Subject matter experts for this presentation: T. Mason Hamilton, Petroleum Markets Analyst, Petroleum Markets Analysis Team, Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis

20 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page This Week in Petroleum Today in Energy Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook State Energy Profiles Drilling Productivity Report 20