U.S. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE FUELS UPDATE - DECEMBER 20, 2017
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1 U.S. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE FUELS UPDATE - DECEMBER 20, 2017 PRICE TRENDS Monday, December 18 According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average U.S. retail price for regular grade of gasoline fell this week, down by 3.5 cents (1.4 percent) from the previous Monday s price to $2.450 per gallon. This week s price was above the year-ago price, up by 18.6 cents (8.2 percent) from $2.264 per gallon. This price was $1.66 (40.4 percent) below the record price of $4.114 per gallon set on 7/7/08. Dec 18 Dec 11 Ago Change from Last from Last Change from Last from Last prices remained above $2.00 in all twenty-seven of the sub-areas monitored by the EIA, CITIES and were above $3.00 in three sub-areas. There were twentyfive areas that posted weekover-week price declines, while two posted increases. Ohio posted the largest decrease of 13.4 cents from last week, while Chicago posted the largest Source: Energy Information Administration increase of 3.7 cents. The average price for regular-grade gasoline for this week ranged from a low of $2.098 per gallon in Houston to a high of $3.186 per gallon in San Francisco. prices generally track crude oil prices; however, historically there has often been a lag before crude oil price changes are reflected in retail gasoline prices. Other factors can also affect this correlation such as seasonal factors, changes in supply or demand for gasoline, refinery outages, and transportation problems. Record Price Record Date Change from Record U.S. $2.450 $2.485 $ cents -1.4% 18.6 cents 8.2% $ /7/2008 -$1.664 REGIONS East Coast $2.438 $2.465 $ cents -1.1% 14.8 cents 6.5% $ /7/2008 -$1.641 New England $2.525 $2.546 $ cents -0.8% 24.4 cents 10.7% $ /7/2008 -$1.618 Central Atlantic $2.571 $2.589 $ cents -0.7% 19.3 cents 8.1% $ /7/2008 -$1.544 Lower Atlantic $2.313 $2.348 $ cents -1.5% 8.7 cents 3.9% $ /7/2008 -$1.720 Midwest $2.324 $2.371 $ cents -2.0% 13.2 cents 6.0% $ /14/2008 -$1.742 Gulf Coast $2.164 $2.216 $ cents -2.3% 11.1 cents 5.4% $ /14/2008 -$1.807 Rocky Mountain $2.476 $2.514 $ cents -1.5% 34.1 cents 16.0% $ /21/2008 -$1.629 West Coast $2.961 $2.974 $ cents -0.4% 39.8 cents 15.5% $ /23/2008 -$1.499 STATES U.S. Retail Prices California $3.106 $3.120 $ cents -0.4% 43.6 cents 16.3% $ /8/2012 -$1.553 Colorado $2.437 $2.463 $ cents -1.1% 34.9 cents 16.7% $ /14/2008 -$1.593 Florida $2.318 $2.358 $ cents -1.7% 1.3 cents 0.6% $ /7/2008 -$1.739 Massachusetts $2.518 $2.537 $ cents -0.7% 28.6 cents 12.8% $ /7/2008 -$1.548 Minnesota $2.385 $2.397 $ cents -0.5% 26.7 cents 12.6% $ /20/2013 -$1.907 New York $2.544 $2.567 $ cents -0.9% 15.9 cents 6.7% $ /7/2008 -$1.737 Ohio $2.200 $2.334 $ cents -5.7% cents -5.2% $ /2/2011 -$1.912 Texas $2.144 $2.201 $ cents -2.6% 9.5 cents 4.6% $ /14/2008 -$1.822 Washington $2.923 $2.929 $ cents -0.2% 39.6 cents 15.7% $ /7/2008 -$1.447 Boston $2.517 $2.535 $ cents -0.7% 29.1 cents 13.1% $ /7/2008 -$1.541 Chicago $2.566 $2.529 $ cents 1.5% 18.0 cents 7.5% $ /26/2012 -$1.904 Cleveland $2.268 $2.338 $ cents -3.0% 0.9 cents 0.4% $ /2/2011 -$1.859 Denver $2.410 $2.432 $ cents -0.9% 35.0 cents 17.0% $ /14/2008 -$1.603 Houston $2.098 $2.125 $ cents -1.3% 12.5 cents 6.3% $ /21/2008 -$1.817 Los Angeles $3.094 $3.120 $ cents -0.8% 36.8 cents 13.5% $ /8/2012 -$1.642 Miami $2.637 $2.665 $ cents -1.1% 16.7 cents 6.8% $ /14/2008 -$1.541 New York City $2.529 $2.556 $ cents -1.1% 16.5 cents 7.0% $ /7/2008 -$1.650 San Francisco $3.186 $3.207 $ cents -0.7% 47.1 cents 17.3% $ /8/2012 -$1.489 Seattle $2.976 $2.973 $ cents 0.1% 39.9 cents 15.5% $ /23/2008 -$1.379
2 Diesel According to the EIA, the U.S. Retail Diesel Prices average U.S. retail diesel price Change Change Record (including taxes) fell this Dec 18 Dec 11 Ago from Last from Last from Last from Last Record Date Price week, down by 0.9 cents (0.3 DIESEL percent) from last week to REGIONS $2.901 per gallon. The national average diesel price was above year-ago levels, up by 37.4 cents (14.8 percent) from last year s price of $2.527 per gallon. It was $1.86 (39.1 percent) below STATES the record price of $4.764 per gallon set on 7/14/08. Diesel Source: Energy Information Administration prices were down in all five regions of the U.S.: the East Coast (0.4 cents), the Midwest (1.0 cents), the Gulf Coast (0.8 cents), the Rocky Mountains (3.3 cents) and the West Coast (1.7 cents); and up in the following regions: Diesel prices in California were down from last week by 0.8 cents to $3.552 per gallon. Diesel fuel prices generally track those of crude oil. The price of crude oil is the main factor in the price of diesel fuel, and fluctuations in the crude oil market greatly influence changes in diesel prices. Short-run factors that can cause divergences from this correlation include supply shortages resulting from refinery outages, transportation issues, adverse weather conditions, and pipeline problems. Heating Oil The national average residential heating oil price rose from last week, up by 2.8 cents (1.0 percent) to $2.908 per gallon, according to EIA. This was 33.8 cents (13.2 percent) above last year s price of $2.570 per gallon. This is below the record price of $4.245 per gallon by $1.34. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, the national residential heating oil price rose in November, up by 11.3 cents (4.5 percent) from October's price of $2.520 per gallon to $2.633 per gallon. The current price was 37.7 cents (16.7 percent) above last year s price of $2.256 per gallon, and $2.02 below the record price of $4.649 per gallon set in July Change from Record U.S. $2.901 $2.910 $ cents -0.3% 37.4 cents 14.8% $ /14/2008 -$1.863 East Coast $2.897 $2.901 $ cents -0.1% 33.8 cents 13.2% $ /14/2008 -$1.925 New England $2.924 $2.900 $ cents 0.8% 33.7 cents 13.0% $ /14/2008 -$1.965 Central Atlantic $3.060 $3.060 $ cents 0.0% 39.3 cents 14.7% $ /27/2008 -$1.853 Lower Atlantic $2.778 $2.788 $ cents -0.4% 30.8 cents 12.5% $ /14/2008 -$1.999 Midwest $2.853 $2.863 $ cents -0.3% 37.4 cents 15.1% $ /14/2008 -$1.845 Gulf Coast $2.697 $2.705 $ cents -0.3% 28.7 cents 11.9% $ /14/2008 -$2.040 Rocky Mountains $2.958 $2.991 $ cents -1.1% 46.3 cents 18.6% $ /14/2008 -$1.760 West Coast $3.327 $3.344 $ cents -0.5% 53.9 cents 19.3% $ /14/2008 -$1.582 California $3.552 $3.560 $ cents -0.2% 69.8 cents 24.5% $ /27/2008 -$1.475 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA s) Climate Prediction Center reported that the weather across the nation was colder this past week. The number of heating degree days in the U.S. rose by 36.7 percent from the previous week to 257 heating degree days. Weather was colder in New England and colder in the Mid Atlantic last week, with heating degree days up by 40.4 percent and up by 40.2 percent from the previous week, respectively. Compared to last year, the weather was milder across the nation, with heating degree days down by 1.5 percent. Last week s heating degree days were above the normal heating degree days around this time of the year, lower by 15.8 percent. Ending Ending U.S. Heating Degree Day Data from Normal Ago Normal Dec 16 Dec 9 U.S % % % New England % % % Mid-Atlantic % % % Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Climate Prediction Center
3 Crude Oil NYMEX crude prices were down by 83.0 cents from last week s price to $57.16 per barrel ($1.361 per gallon) on Monday. The current price is $5.04 per barrel ($0.12 per gallon) above last year s price of $52.12 per barrel ($1.24 per gallon). This week s price was $88.13 per barrel ($2.10 per gallon) below the record price of $ per barrel ($3.46 per gallon) set on 7/7/08. Fluctuations in crude oil prices are the most significant cause of gasoline price swings over the long term. However, in the short term, the price of gasoline can also be affected by gasoline-specific supply and demand developments. Another factor affecting U.S. gasoline markets is the varying fuel specifications across the country. These specialized regional and local gasoline formulas reduce the flexibility of refiners and distributors to respond to supply disruptions.
4 Dollars per Gallon, Diesel, Heating Oil and Crude Oil Prices $5.00 $ /19/12 $ /07/12 $ /07/13 $ /10/14 $ /10/14 $ /07/12 $ /06/14 $ /13/14 $ /18/13 $4.175 $ /07/13 $ /11/13 $ /30/13 $ /06/14 $ /26/15 $ /02/15 $ /02/15 $ /15/15 $ /28/15 $ /07/15 $ /02/17 $ /18/17 $ /18/17 $2.901 $2.00 $ /04/12 $ /26/15 $ /12/15 $ /05/15 $ /28/15 $ /22/15 $ /02/15 $ /21/15 $ /02/17 $ /02/17 $ /18/17 $ /18/17 $ /18/16 $0.678 $0.00 (*) Denotes Record Price (EIA) Diesel (EIA) Heating Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (NYMEX)
5 REFINERY OPERATIONS WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, December 15 According to the American Petroleum Institute s (API s) ly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) data, the average daily input to distillation rose this week by 48,000 barrels from last week to a daily average of 17.3 million barrels. The estimated capacity utilization rate was at 93.6 percent, up by 0.3 percentage points from last week and up by 1.6 percentage points from last year s utilization rate of 92.0 percent. PRODUCTION LEVELS WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, December 15 production fell by 283,000 barrels per day from last week to 10.3 million barrels per day. This was above last year s production level by 225,000 barrels per day. Production of reformulated gasoline was down from last week by 35,000 barrels per day and production of conventional gasoline was down by 248,000 barrels per day. Production of conventional-type gasoline was above the five-year average by 6.7 percent. Distillate fuel production rose by 9,000 barrels per day (0.2 percent) from last week to about 5.2 million barrels per day. This was up by 37,000 barrels per day from last year s output of 5.2 million barrels per day. Approximately 97.2 percent of the low sulfur diesel was in the form of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Production of ULSD rose by 30,000 barrels per day (0.6 percent) from last week to 4.9 million barrels per day. ULSD production is up from last year by 1.5 percent. U.S. production of high sulfur distillate (heating oil) was up by 15.6 percent from last year s production level. U.S. Industry Operations Ending Source: API s ly Statistical Bulletin Ending Dec 15 Dec 8 Gross Inputs 17,313 17, % 16, % 16, % Percent Operated % % % Total Production (Million Barrels per day) U.S. Total % % % Reformulated % % % Conventional % % % Production (Million Barrels per day) U.S. Refinery Operations Ago from U.S. Total % % % Low Sulfur % % % ULSD % % % High Sulfur % % %
6 INVENTORY LEVELS WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, December 15 According to the API s WSB report, gasoline inventories rose this week from the prior week to million barrels, an increase of 0.9 percent. inventories were 1.5 percent lower than year ago levels but 3.0 percent higher than the five-year average. blendstocks were up this week by 2.8 million (1.4 percent) and down by 1.6 million (0.8 percent) from last year s levels. Stocks of RBOB were down from last year s levels by 1.8 million. Total Inventories (Million Barrels) Ending Ending Dec 15 Dec 8 U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % New England % % % Central Atlantic % % % Lower Atlantic % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain % % % West Coast % % % Reformulated (RFG) Inventories (Thousand Barrels) U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % Midwest 0 0 NA 0 NA 0 NA Gulf Coast 0 0 NA 0 NA 6 NA Mountain 0 0 NA 0 NA 0 NA West Coast % % % Total Blendstock Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain % % % West Coast % % % Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Inventories Ago from U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain NA 0.0 NA 0.0 NA West Coast % % % Source: API s ly Statistical Bulletin
7 INVENTORY LEVELS (CONT D) U.S. total distillate inventories fell this week to million barrels, down by 2.8 million barrels (2.2 percent) from last week, according to API s WSB report. The current level was below the year-ago but below the 5-year average level, down by 16.5 percent and down by 1.9 percent respectively. This was 44.3 million barrels greater than the National Petroleum Council s estimate of lower operational level of 85 million barrels. High sulfur distillate inventories were down by 28.2 percent from last year s level of 14.3 million barrels. ULSD inventories were down this week by 2.1 million barrels to million barrels. Ending Ending Dec 15 Dec 8 Total Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % New England % % % Central Atlantic % % % Lower Atlantic % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain % % % West Coast % % % High Sulfur Distillate Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % New England % % % Central Atlantic % % % Lower Atlantic % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain % % % West Coast % % % Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Data Ago from U.S. Total % % % East Coast % % % New England % % % Central Atlantic % % % Lower Atlantic % % % Midwest % % % Gulf Coast % % % Mountain % % % West Coast % % % Source: API s ly Statistical Bulletin
8 IMPORTS LEVELS WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, December 15 Imports of finished gasoline were down by 20,000 barrels per day to 40,000 barrels per day this week. Imports of gasoline blending components were up by 39,000 barrels per day to 502,000 barrels per day. U.S. distillate imports rose by 164,000 barrels per day from last week to 355,000 barrels per day. ULSD imports were up for the week by 72,000 barrels per day (60.5 percent) to 191,000 barrels per day. Total Motor Source: API s ly Statistical Bulletin Ending Ending Dec 15 Dec 8 U.S. Import Levels (Thousand Barrels per day) Ago from U.S. Total % % % Finished Motor % % % Gas Blending Comp % % % U.S. Total % % % Low Sulfur % % % ULSD % % % High Sulfur % % % MONTHLY DATA - November 2017 The latest available API information indicates that gasoline deliveries (a measure of demand) for November 2017 rose by 0.6 percent from the prior year, to average 9.3 million barrels per day. to date for 2017, gasoline demand was up by 0.2 percent, to average 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate Fuel deliveries for November 2017 rose by 0.8 percent to 4.0 million barrels per day. to date for 2017, distillate fuel demand was up by 1.3 percent, to average 3.9 million barrels per day. API Monthly Data November November YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Deliveries (Thousand Barrels) 9,285 9, % 9,342 9, % Distillate Fuel 3,971 3, % 3,911 3, % Production (Thousand Barrels) 10,295 9, % 9,952 10, % Distillate Fuel 5,296 5, % 4,988 4, % Stocks (Million Barrels) API Monthly Data November October November (Month Ago) ( Ago) % -5.0% Distillate Fuel % -19.0% Source: API s ly Statistical Bulletin For more information, contact Alex Gilden, , GildenA@api.org
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