Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 3.5 Figure 1. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent) / I II III IV I II III IV I Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 2. US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH Year Bond Yield (percent) (3.1) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) (5.5) Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 Figure 3. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: (ratio scale) 12/ day moving average % (517) -16.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% -5.8% (62) (34) -5.8% (19) % (28) -12.4% (96) -13.3% (1) -1.2% (13) -1.2% (64) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 2% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 4. YIELD CURVE SPREAD & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS -3 1-Year Treasury Yield Less -5 Federal Funds Rate (basis points, pushed ahead 12 months) -7-9 Coincident Economic Indicators (yearly percent change) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. Page 4 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 45 4 Figure 5. YIELD CURVE: 1-YEAR US TREASURY MINUS FED FUNDS (basis points) / Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 6. US YIELD CURVE* & BUSINESS CYCLE (basis points, weekly) / * 1-year US Treasury yield less federal funds rate. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 5 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 35 3 Figure 7. YIELD CURVE (basis points) 1-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury (13) 5-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury (-1) / Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 8. ISM PRICES-PAID INDEXES ISM Prices-Paid Indexes Manufacturing (6.7) Nonmanufacturing (61.5) Source: Institute for Supply Management. 2 1 Page 6 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 Figure 9. GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent) Germany (.25) Japan (.7) US (2.85) / Source: Haver Analytics Figure 1. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (216=1, sa, ratio scale) LEI CEI Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board. Page 7 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 11. COMPONENTS OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average Workweek (hours, sa) Building Permits (million units, saar) Jobless Claims (thousands, sa) Average of Conference Board & University of Michigan Expectations Indexes (normalized index) Consumer Goods Orders (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) S&P 5 Composite Price Index ( =1, nsa) ISM New Orders Index (5+=increasing, sa) Leading Credit Index (normalized index, percent) Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) Source: Conference Board. Interest Rate Spread (basis points, nsa) Page 8 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 1.6 Figure 12. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT TRUCK TRANSPORTATION (millions, sa, ratio scale) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 13. INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (in 26-wa) (4.3) Coincident Economic Indicators (2.2) / Source: Atlantic Systems and Bureau of Economic Analysis Page 9 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 18 16 Figure 14. JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (millions) Unemployed Workers Job Openings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 15. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Q S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management Page 1 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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