AUTO INDUSTRY CHARTBOOK 1Q 2018

Transcription

1 US AUTO INDUSTRY CHARTBOOK 1Q 218

2 Key Messages 1. Economic fundamentals and financial conditions remain supportive of demand 2. However, increasing off-lease returns will continue to exert downward pressures on sales and prices of new vehicles 3. The structural shift towards light-trucks has kept transaction prices high, supporting profitability 4. Sales of electric vehicles hit a record in 217; a substitution effect between hybrids and plug-ins is taking place 5. Autonomous driving, shared mobility, connectivity and electrification will transform the industry in the following years 2

3 SALES

4 Sales U.S. Total light weight vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) 25 2 Avg = 16.6 Feb-18 = Total Domestic Imported Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 4

5 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) Cars Light trucks Medium and heavy trucks (right axis) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 5

6 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (Share of total) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Cars Trucks Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 6

7 Sales U.S. Auto dealers: revenue (Year-over-year % change, 4Q moving average) New Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales Parts & Service Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg 7

8 Sales U.S. Domestic auto inventory/sales ratio (Seasonally adjusted) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 8

9 Q4 Q4 Sales U.S. Sales growth by brand and market share (217, yoy % change and % market share) Share Share Brand Audi BMW 15 Brand Fiat Chrysler Land Rover Ford Mazda Mercedes-Benz -5 GM Hyundai -5 Mini Kia Mitsubishi Subaru Porsche VolksWagen -1 Toyota Q3 Volvo -5 5 Q3 Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg 9

10 Prices U.S. Consumer price index: cars and trucks (yoy % change) 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% New Used Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 1

11 Prices U.S. Auto Prices 14 4, , , Manheim used vehicles value index Edmunds Vehicle True Market Value (right axis) 25, Source: BBVA Research, Haver Analytics and Bloomberg 11

12 Financial conditions U.S. Interest rates (yoy % change) month new car loan 36-month used car loan 6-month new car Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 12

13 Financial conditions U.S. Newly originated installment auto loans ($ billion, eop, 4-qtr moving avg.) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 13

14 Financial conditions U.S. Auto loan 9+ days delinquent (% of balance) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 14

15 Leasing U.S. Leasing penetration rate (%) Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg 15

16 Leasing Off-Lease returns and supply* (Fiscal years, millions units) f 218f 219f *Assumes 36-month lease terms Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg 16

17 Gasoline U.S. Spot price (cents per gallon) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 17

18 CONSUMERS

19 Consumers U.S. Consumer sentiment index Current economic conditions Consumer expectations Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 19

20 Consumers U.S. Plans to buy a car within 6 months (% of respondents) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 2

21 Consumers U.S. Employment and real disposable personal income (yoy % change) 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Real disposable personal income Nonfarm payroll Average RDI 21-1Q18 Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 21

22 Consumers U.S. Household equity and home prices Owners equity in real estate (NSA billion $, left axis) FHFA house price index (yoy change, right axis) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 22

23 PRODUCTION

24 Production U.S. Auto production Industrial production index: autos (27=1, left axis) BEA Auto Production Estimate (SAAR, million units, right axis) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 24

25 STRUCTURAL

26 Miles per capita Million miles Fundamentals Mean age of passenger cars in operation (years) Vehicle miles of travel (total and adjusted by labor force) : Population adjusted (left axis) Total (right axis) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 26

27 Demographics U.S. Population projections by age (millions) years 65 years and over Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 27

28 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Electric vehicles U.S. Electric vehicle sales (units) Hybrids Plug-in Hybrid (right axis) Battery Electric Vehicle (right axis) Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics 28

29 Disruptive trends transforming the auto industry Autonomous Driving Shared Mobility Connectivity Electrification 8% of the top OEMs have announced plans for highly autonomous technology to be ready for the road by 225 $32 billion had been invested in ridesharing start-ups alone. US customers expect usage of shared mobility to increase by around 8% once robo-taxis are available The percentage of consumers ready and willing to change car brands for better connectivity has doubled over the past two years Many massmarket OEMs are planning to add ten or more EV models as they can reach potential sales of up to 6K units in the next five years Source: Heineke, Kersten; Moller, Timo; Padhi, Asutosh, and Tschiesner, Andreas (217), The automotive revolution is speeding up, McKinsey & Company, September. 29

30 FORECASTS

31 Forecast Auto sales (millions units) Real GDP growth (% change) Unemployment rate (% avg.) Fed funds (%, eop) 5-year Treasuries (%, avg) Source: BBVA Research 31

32 US AUTO INDUSTRY CHARTBOOK 1Q 218