US Economic Briefing: Regional Business Surveys

Transcription

1 US Economic Briefing: Regional Business Surveys November 6, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Regional M-PMIs 1 National vs Regional M-PMIs 2 Regional Business Conditions Indexes 3 Regional New 4 Regional Production 5 Regional 6 Chicago PMI 7 Dallas Fed Survey 8 Detroit PMI 9 Kansas City Fed Survey 1 New York Fed Survey 11 Philadelphia Fed Survey 12 Richmond Fed Survey 13 Regional Business Indexes November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

3 4 3 Figure 1. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* Regional M-PMIs Composite NY & Philly (=21.7) NY, Philly, and Richmond (=19.4) NY, Philly, Richmond, and Dallas (=21.9) New NY and Philly (=.9) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=.6) NY, Philly, Richmond, and Richmond (=.2) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=19.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=19.3) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=17.5) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=17.5) NY and Philly (=14.3) NY, Philly, and Dallas (=15.8) NY, Philly, Richmond, and Richmond (=17.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, Richmond, and Dallas ( (=15.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=14.2) * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. -3 Page 1 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

4 7 Figure 2. National vs Regional M-PMIs NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* National Composite M-PMI (=57.7) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. (=19.1) NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs National M-PMI (=57.4) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. (=17.5) US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs National M-PMI (56.8) Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond (15.9) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond. -5 Page 2 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

5 8 Figure 3. Regional Business Conditions Indexes CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER INDEX* NEW YORK GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX** DALLAS CURRENT GENERAL BUSINESS INDEX** PHILADELPHIA CURRENT ACTIVITY INDEX** Task: MDETMETRO Invalid calculation element [SERIES] -4 4 KANSAS CITY COMPOSITE INDEX** - :59: RICHMOND FED COMPOSITE INDEX** *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics Page 3 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys - -3

6 Regional New 9 8 Figure 4. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** New New DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** New New KANSAS CITY** Task: MDETORD - Invalid calculation element [SERIES] :59:42 RICHMOND** New *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics New Page 4 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys -6

7 85 75 Figure 5. CHICAGO* Production Regional Production Task: MDETPROD 45 Invalid calculation element [SERIES] DALLAS** Production KANSAS CITY** (one-month change, sa) :59: Production *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

8 Regional 7 Figure 6. CHICAGO* NEW YORK** DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA** RICHMOND** Task: MMDETEMPX Invalid calculation element [SERIES] - KANSAS CITY** :: *Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey. Source: Haver Analytics Page 6 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys -4

9 Chicago PMI 8 7 Figure 7. CHICAGO PMI SURVEY Order Backlogs Deliveries Business Barometer Production Prices Paid New Inventories Source: Haver Analytics. Page 7 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

10 Figure 8. DALLAS FED BUSINESS SURVEY Current General Business Index Dallas Fed Survey Unfilled Current Company Outlook Index Production Prices Paid: Raw Materials Prices Received: Finished Goods New Volume of Shipments Capacity Utilization Source: Haver Analytics Page 8 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

11 Figure 9. Detroit PMI Task: DETMETRO Task: DETPROD Invalid calculation element [SERIES] Invalid calculation element [SERIES] :21: :21:36 Task: DETDEL Task: DETORDINV Invalid calculation element [SERIES] COMPOSE command attempted on missing d :21: :21:35 Task: DETCOM Task: DETEMP Invalid calculation element [SERIES] Invalid calculation element [SERIES] :21: :21:29 Page 9 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

12 6 4 Figure 1. KANSAS CITY FED BUSINESS SURVEY Kansas City Fed Survey Production Backlog of 4 Jul New Volume of Shipments Finished Goods Inventories Prices Paid Prices Received Source: Haver Analytics Page 1 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

13 New York Fed Survey 6 Figure 11. NY FED BUSINESS SURVEY* General Business Conditions Index Workweek New Shipments Inventories Delivery Time Prices Received * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Page 11 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

14 Philadelphia Fed Survey Figure 12. PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS SURVEY* Current Activity Index Shipments Inventories Unfilled Current Prices Received * Diffusion indexes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Page 12 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

15 Richmond Fed Survey 4 Figure 13. RICHMOND FED BUSINESS SURVEY Composite Index Wages New Shipments Vendor Lead Time Backlog Capacity Utilization Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Page 13 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

16 4 Figure 14. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL COMPOSITE MANUFACTURING INDEXES* New York and Philadelphia (=21.7) and Richmond (=19.4) Richmond, and Dallas (=21.9) Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City (=19.1) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=19.3) * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutshce Borse Group. 4 3 Figure 15. REGIONAL NEW ORDERS MANUFACTURING INDEXES New York and Philadelphia (=.9) and Richmond (=.6) Richmond, and Dallas (=.2) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (=17.5) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=17.8) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Bourse Page 14 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

17 4 Figure 16. Regional Business Indexes REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING INDEXES New York and Philadelphia (=14.3) and Richmond (=15.8) Richmond, and Dallas (=17.9) Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas ( (=15.9) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and Chicago (=14.2) Page 15 / November 6, 18 / Regional Business Surveys

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