IBB Meeting Biodiesel Feedstock Outlook. September 14th, 2017 INTL FCStone Financial, LLC
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1 IBB Meeting Biodiesel Feedstock Outlook September 14th, 2017 INTL FCStone Financial, LLC
2 DISCLAIMER The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and swaps may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. All references to futures/options trading are made solely on behalf of FCStone, LLC. All references to swap execution and bi-lateral swaps are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets, LLC. FCStone, LLC will clear swaps when applicable. Swaps are only available to eligible counterparties. This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by FCStone, LLC or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC noted in this presentation. Neither FCStone, LLC or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC is responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact FCStone, LLC or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by FCStone, LLC or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC. All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. Factual information believed to reliable, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; and we cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by FCStone, LLC or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved. Any examples given are provided for illustrative purposes only, and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved. 2
3 AGENDA Corn, Soybean, Soybean Oil and Animal Fat Supply/Demand Historical Prices Biodiesel Margins 2018 Outlook 3
4 USDA CORN SUPPLY/DEMAND 4
5 USDA SOYBEAN SUPPLY/DEMAND 5
6 DOLLAR CHART 6
7 CFTC FUND POSITION 7
8 USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 8
9 USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 9
10 USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND *Crush Formula ((Soyoil cash price X ) + (Soymeal cash price X 2.37))-(Soybean cash price) 35 Using -1 cent soyoil basis, -15 dollar meal basis, -30 cent soybean basis old crop an -25 cent new crop 10
11 USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 11
12 USDA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 12
13 HISTORICAL PRICES 13
14 US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 14
15 US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 15
16 US ANIMAL FAT & GREASE SUPPLY/DEMAND 16
17 HISTORICAL PRICES *Jacobsen Prices. Using 7.35 lbs as density for Biodiesel 17
18 HISTORICAL PRICES *Jacobsen Prices. Using 7.35 lbs as density for Biodiesel 18
19 BIODIESEL MARGINS 19
20 2017/18 OUTLOOK 20
21 2017/18 OUTLOOK 21
22 2017/18 OUTLOOK Takeaways We are looking at yet another year of massive production numbers Corn vs. Beans will be an interesting fight for acres next year, corn needs to find some footing When will the dollar help spur exports to reduce ending stock Biodiesel is in one of the most dynamic periods ever, many moving parts South American trade wars will in all likelihood continue or escalate What will China do? Peoples Republic of California 22
23 THANK YOU Billy Burns INTL FCStone Financial, LLC Risk Management Consultant
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