Energy and transport in 2050 will we overcome the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth?

Transcription

1 Energy and transport in 2050 will we overcome the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth? ESMT Annual Forum 2014 Jens Weinmann Berlin, 3 July 2014

2 Our ecological footprint: Past, present and future Past Present Future Global human population (in billions) How many Earths worth of resources do we consume? Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2013) 1

3 Human development and the Ecological Footprint: Either one or the other Meets minimum criteria for sustainability Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2012) 2

4 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs GDP per capita Source: Deutsche Bank (2014) 3

5 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs GDP per capita China 3.95 billion people Egypt Turkey Pakistan Bangladesh Mexico India Indonesia Philippines Nigeria Russia Brazil Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014) 4

6 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs GDP per capita 6 billion people <20,000 US $ cap 1 billion people >20,000 US $ cap Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014) 5

7 Energy intensity is not declining fast enough Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2012) 6

8 Total primary energy demand will increase by 70% until 2050, according to the International Energy Agency s BAU (6 C) scenario Past Present Future C Business as usual Total primary energy demand (in 000 Mtoe) 2 C CC scenario Source: IEA ETP (2014) 7

9 Solar photovoltaic price drop mirrors high tech consumer goods Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2014) 8

10 The levelized costs of photovoltaic energy range from a minimum of 0.08 EURcts/kWh in southern Mediterranean to 32 EURcts/kWh in the most northern regions Source: Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013) 9

11 About 40 percent of the world s population lives in the tropical belt Tropical belt Source: PBH / ATI (2013) 10

12 Evolution of global new solar photovoltaic installations rapid development in Asia combined with a sharp drop of installations in Europe In the IEA s 2 C-High Renewables Scenario solar becomes the dominant electricity source by 2040, providing 26% of global generation by 2050 Sources: EPIA (0214), Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013), IEA ETP (2014) 11

13 Will we run out of energy? Source: Richard Perez (2011) 12

14 The global car fleet will continue to grow Past Present Future C Business as usual Light duty passenger vehicles (in millions) 2 C CC scenario Source: IEA ETP (2014) 13

15 The car will remain the preferred means of transport but which technologies and business models will dominate? Passenger kilometers in IEA s 2 C scenario in 2050 (World total of 85 trillion km) Rail 11% Air 9% Heavy road 22% Light road 58% Sources: IEA ETP (2014) / IEA Global Tranposrt Outlook / Dulac (2012) 14

16 New car registrations (2010) Inhabitants (million) #esmt2050 Industrialized countries: The car loses its power as a status symbol for the younger generation 18 to 25 year old Germans: declining affinity to cars New car registrations and demographics & Can you imagine to live without cell phone and internet for a month? No 76% Yes 24% n= , , , ,000 Inhabitants New car registrations , ,000 6 Can you imagine to live without a car for a No 41% Yes 59% month? n= ,000 50,000 0 < >79 Age group Sources: Bratzel/Center of Automotive Management (2011); Destatis / KBA (2013) 15

17 Free-floating: A new car-sharing service for the digital society Daimler was the pioneer of free-floating car-sharing Exponential growth in car-sharing 760,000 users 14,000 vehicles User free-floating User classic car clubs Vehicles free-floating Vehicles classic car clubs /1/2014 Car2go is active at 25 locations in seven European and North American countries approximately 10,000 smart fortwo vehicles are being used by more than 600,000 customers as of Jan 1, 2014 Classic car clubs Free floating Suppliers approx Cities participating 380 (+38*) 12 (+6*) Users 320,000 (+50,000*) 437,000 (+254,000*) Vehicles 7,700 (+1,000*) 6,250 (+1,700*) Stations 3,900 (+650*) *compared to Jan 1, 2013 Sources: car2go/daimler (2014), Verkehrsclub Deutschland (2014) 16

18 Electric vehicles are not only an expensive toy in industrialized countries: Tesla Model S vs. BMW i3 vs. Reva e2o 85 kwh 19 kwh 10 kwh km km km Sources: Company websites (2014) 17

19 Tesla s Gigafactory will decrease battery price of batteries by 30% By the end of the first year of volume production of our mass market vehicle, we expect the Gigafactory will have driven down the per kwh cost of our battery pack by more than 30 percent. Source: Tesla Motors (2014) 18

20 Key Take-Away In the foreseable future, we will not be able to decouple energy and economic growth but it does not matter as much as we think, because we will have abundant renewable energy available!

21 Thank you for your attention! Dr. Jens Weinmann Program Director +49 (0) ESMT European School of Management and Technology Schlossplatz Berlin Phone: +49 (0) Fax: +49 (0) info@esmt.org