Market Report Series: Oil 2018 Analysis & Forecasts to Energy Community 10 th Oil Forum, Belgrade, 25 September 2018

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1 Market Report Series: Oil 218 Analysis & Forecasts to 223 Energy Community 1 th Oil Forum, Belgrade, 25 September 218

2 Short term update: crude prices (excl. WTI) up strongly Aug/Sep $/bbl 8 Benchmark Crude Prices Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Copyright 218 Argus Media -25 WTI Cushing N. Sea Dated Dubai $/bbl WTI Midland diffs Copyright 218 Argus Media Ltd Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 WTI Midland vs WTI Cushing WTI Midland vs WTI Houston Brent crude tests $8/bbl. US and Canadian differentials fall due to infrastructure constraints.

3 Short term update: demand growth slows 2Q18; rebounds 2H Global Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y Q217 3Q217 1Q218 3Q218 1Q219 3Q219 Europe China India US Total Demand growth 1.4 in 218 and 1.47 in 219, but trade wars, GDP, growth outlook, currency devaluations, are risks.

4 Short term update: global oil supply reaches 1 in August 3. OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Year-on-Year Change Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 OPEC Crude Non-OPEC OPEC NGLs Total Supply Higher OPEC output offsets seasonal non-opec decline. Non-OPEC output up 2.6 on a year ago, OPEC down 27 kb/d due to declines from Venezuela, Iran and Angola.

5 Short term update: Iranian exports tumble 28 kb/d to 1.9 Iran Crude Oil Loadings 2.5 Source: Kpler Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 India China Europe Korea Japan Other Top customers India and China make sharp cuts in August, Europe already at lower levels.

6 Short term update: Oil market set to tighten late in Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18-2. Total Stock Ch. & Misc Demand Supply* *Note: For scenario purposes, OPEC/non-OPEC cuts remain constant. Stocks will draw 4Q18 by more than shown unless Iran/Venezuela shortfalls compensated by more output from other producers.

7 Back to the medium term: robust demand growth of 1.2 growth by product & fuel oil breakdown y-o-y changes LPG & ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet fuel & kerosene Gasoil/diesel Residual fuel oil Other products Total products LPG & ethane + naphtha + gasoline Jet fuel & kerosene + other products Gasoil/diesel Inland FO New bunker ULSFO Bunker HSFO Total products Very large shift in demand in 22 and following adjustments reflect IMO induced switch

8 Petrochemicals drive oil demand growth to 223 Feedstock requirements for new steam crackers 7 kb/d Naphtha Ethane 1 US China Russia Others Petrochemical feedstocks (ethane and naphtha) responsible for 25% of global oil demand growth

9 IMO 22 marine fuel specification changes kb/d Marine bunker in OECD and major non-oecd fuel switch Volumes (kb/d) and Shares (%) % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Bunker HS FO Marine gasoil Marine FO.5% % High Sulfur fuel oil replaced by a new.5% fuel and gasoil. Gasoil availability is the main constraint.

10 Sign of the future? China uses alternative fuels in transport Thousand 7 LNG trucks and electric buses fleet Thousand cars 6, Natural gas car fleet 25% Electric car fleet Thousand cars , 4, 3, 2, 1, China NGVs % World 2% 15% 1% 5% % PHEV BEV LNG trucks Electric Buses Likely to replace 2 kb/d of gasoline and 8 kb/d of diesel per year over the forecast

11 Supply concerns: limited increase in 218 upstream spending Global oil and gas upstream capital spending USD billion (real) -25% -25% +1% +4%* *Preliminary based on selection of investment updates Most companies maintain spending, increases focused on US.

12 Supply concerns: global oil discoveries fall to 7-year low Resources Million Barrels Global oil discoveries Crude Oil Condensate NGL Less than 4 billion barrels of crude, condensate and NGLs confirmed.

13 Supply concerns: industry needs to find a North Sea each year. Output loss from post-peak conventional crude oil fields -1. OPEC Non-OPEC Ageing oil fields lose more than 3 per year despite slowing decline rates.

14 Supply concerns: Venezuela, Libya, Iran risk factors for OPEC Changes in OPEC crude supply capacity Algeria Eq. Gui Gabon Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Saudi Kuwait Libya Iran UAE Iraq Angola Venezuela OPEC crude oil capacity rises by a mere.75 (13 kb/d annual). Iran sanctions make picture very uncertain as does possible collapse of Venezuela.

15 Strong growth in US, Brazil, Canada drives non-opec output Annual non-opec supply change US Brazil Canada Other Top three expand by combined 5.5 by 223, total non-opec rises 5.2.

16 US oil supply hits 16.9 by 223, up 3.7 on 217 US total oil supply Annual change in US oil supply kb/d LTO Gulf of Mexico Alaska Other Crude NGLs Other Liquids Growth stalls by early 22s in the absence of higher prices or further technological advances.

17 Most incremental crude exports come from non-opec Africa Angola Algeria Nigeria Egypt Libya Middle East Kuwait Oman Saudi UAE Iraq Latin America Venezuela Colombia Brazil FSU/Norway Kazakh Russia Norway North America Mexico Canada US US refining capacity has absorbed most of the first wave of the Shale. Second wave goes to exports.

18 US oil finds new markets Low-sulphur and petchem feedstocks US LTO first wave Low-sulphur, low residue feedstocks US LTO second wave Refiners in Asia and Europe look for suitable crude oil to produce petrochemical feedstocks and low-sulphur fuels

19 China net crude oil imports double the US in 223 Net crude oil imports US China India Indian imports, too, surpass the US in 223 as shale growth reduces US import dependence.

20 Tightening oil market balance 4. Global Oil Market Balance OPEC Crude Capacity Call on OPEC Crude + Stock Ch. Solid demand growth alongside major uncertainties around OPEC capacity & investment elsewhere could lead to shrinking of spare production capacity cushion by 223. Security of supply risk.

21 Conclusions: medium term outlook to 223 Robust world oil demand growth to 223 petrochemicals key driver. IMO disruption? More upstream investment needed today to meet future demand and offset 3 of declines from mature oil fields each year. Venezuela, Libya & Iran are major OPEC supply risks In non-opec, US, Brazil, Canada, Norway dominate output growth. US crude finds new markets as refiners seek light, low-sulphur crude to meet petrochemical demand and IMO specifications. China & India overtake US as net importers. As spare capacity cushion shrinks, supply security concerns remain critical.

Market Report Series Oil 2018 Analysis and Forecasts to Columbia University Centre on Global Energy Policy, New York, May 22 nd 2018

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