Steady Progress Scenario

Transcription

1 Visions of Sustainable Economic Growth: A Transatlantic Dialogue on Energy, Water, and Innovation Washington DC, 11 September 2012 Steady Progress Scenario Bertrand Château

2 PACT, PASHMINA: two inter-related EU-FP7 research programmes to explore energy transitions up to 2050 PACT: postcarbon transitions Common features: - Analysis - Modelling - EU Visions 2050 Common focus: -City and urbanization -Behaviours & life-styles -Innovation PASHMINA: paradigm shifts 2

3 3 scenarios for post-carbon transition and related paradigm shifts in the EU Welfare expectations More GDP focussed Business as usual Spacecraft Growth with anticipation of limits Balance wealth / environment More attention to wealth Hardway Smartphone More attention to environment Limits to growth New welfare More «beyond GDP» focussed 3

4 "Spacecraft" : a steady progress scenario for the EU, established on 3 main foundations Growth, growth, growth!!! No welfare progress without sustained GDP growth Innovation and human capital are the fuels of the GDP growth on the long term Physical limits on climate and natural resources, especially fossils, threaten GDP growth if not anticipated and duly addressed 4

5 A steady progress scenario driven by top-down forces, with a high consensus at the top High level of consensus worldwide on: Globalization and market as pre-conditions for long term growth Threats due to physical limits must be addressed immediately through timely organized energy and carbon transitions Governments and big stakeholders take the lead of the transitions: Successful governance at world and EU levels of climate and resources issues Adequate and consistent policies in EU member countries to raise human capital and facilitate green innovations Big stakehoders very active in proposing new technologies and services, mostly centralized 5

6 High level of consensus on threats and how to address them: some examples Commitments on carbon intensity of the GDP : Annex1 countries + major BRICs High level of flexibility & cooperation to reach commitments and embark emerging countries GHG intensity targets include GHG embodied in imports/exports Mechanisms to prevent price shocks & turbulences on oil and gas markets 6

7 Adequate policies in EU member countries some examples Land use policies to foster post-carbon cities: Urban sprawl to be controlled Priority to small/medium cities, especially if close to big cities Transport policies to address increasing demand for speed, while consistent with post-carbon cities Spatial networking among cities Fast rail infrastructures, regional and long distance Energy efficiency and renewables policies: CO2 taxation combined with Emission Trading System Feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewables Standards for vehicle CO2 emissions, insulation of new buildings,... R&D: batteries, building retrofitting techniques,... 7

8 Innovation driven by big stakeholders some examples Energy: more electricity, more renewables at consumer levels centralized renewables ( and nuclear?) for electricity generation Smart grids to manage intermittency and peak demand Transport: Electro-mobility, pure electric and plug-in hybrids road vehicles Bio-fuels for remaining ICE, air and sea transport Fast trains to cope with increasing transport speed demand New services for urban mobility in relation to electro-mobility Buildings Passive architecture New technologies for retrofitting 8

9 The European demographic structure to change deeply by 2050, changing the energy consumption pattern Population: slow growth aging: >75 from 6% to around 13% less active people: from 66% to 61% Households: faster increase singles from 28% to 45% reduced average size Population (Millions) >75 <25 Households (Millions) >2 pers 2 pers 1 pers More singles and two persons households imply more energy intensive life styles for the same income: more m² per person, higher equipment ratios of the population, etc 9

10 Behaviours and life-styles still driven by income growth and increasing diversity of consumption opportunities self-accomplishment / work time-use ratio Time-use preference: working for money first! Economic outlook: strong increase in GDP/capita despite stable labor hours thanks to high productivity 2,1 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,8 1, Volume of labor hours (index) Labor productivity (index) GDP/capita index 10

11 Towards a better balance between big connurbations and small/medium cities? Population: 55% of population increase in small/medium cities big connurbations alsmost stabilized BUT Households: 45% new dwellings needed in big connurbations twice more than in small/medium cities Singles and two persons households more attracted by big connurbations, while families with children still attracted by countryside Core cities Core cities Population increase (Millions) 1st ring other cities sparse Households increase (Millions) 1st ring other cities sparse

12 Mobility still driven by the demand for speed related to GDP growth, daily transport time budget constant Motorization impacted by urbanization households structure Cars per '000 hab core cities 1st ring other cities sparse A major shift in mobility structure and modal split Urban and regional traffics per capita stabilized Long distance traffics explode (X 4) road less and less compatible with speed increase Passengers traffics, Gpass-km Urban Regional Long distance Slow modes Other Public air (intra EU) High speed rail Car 12

13 New electric technologies for road mobility 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% market shares of technologies in sales of new cars 100% 50% 0% market shares of technologies in the car fleet Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids ICE Pure electric cars: - second family car, - daily trips Plug-in hybrids: - multipurpose - various concepts car fleet by technology and living areas (millions) core cities st ring other cities sparse core cities 1st ring other cities sparse Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids ICE 13

14 Electricity and road mobility: towards a new paradigm based on centralized renewables 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Electric drive in urban and regional car traffic (% of veh-km) Electric vehicles, regional trips Electric vehicles, urban trips Plug-in hybrids, regional trips Plug-in hybrids, urban trips Car consumption, Mtoe biofuels elec GPL+GNV diesel gasoline New technology clusters: A: decentralized PV + electromobility + house appliances + local S/D balance B: centralized renewables + smart grids + electromobility + smart/centralized batteries reloading Inputs for car electricity, TWh A B A B A: minimum development of decentralized PV cluster Decentralized PV electricity Wind power and CSP* Other inputs* B: maximum development of decentralized PV cluster 14

15 Primary energy, EU-27 Primary energy Primary energy, World Gulf Oil production Oil price 15

16 Electricity mix, EU-27 Power generation Electricity mix, World Solar power, EU27 Wind power, EU27 16

17 CO2 emissions Carbon constraints 500 ppmv concentration in 2050 for energy CO2 carbon price around 400 US$05/tCO2 in 2050 CO2 emissions per capita CO2 emissions, EU27 CO2 emissions, World 17

18 M erci pour votre attention! Contact: Chateau Bertrand bertrand.chateau@enerdata.net