PV Solar Electricity A Future Major Technology

Transcription

1 PV Solar Electricity A Future Major Technology Semicon 2007 Invest in Germany Executive Luncheon July 17 th, 2007 Moscone Center West, San Francisco Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG Siemensstr Alzenau Phone: Fax: Winfried_Hoffmann@amat.com

2 Applied Materials Overview Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology to improve the way people live Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) $9,868 Million Worldwide Employees Approx. 14,000 Worldwide Locations 18 Countries Solar Business Group Power $/W Area $/m² 2

3 European Photovoltaic Industry Association European Renewable Energy Council Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft (German Solar Industry Association) 110 members of the PV Solar Electricity Industry 600 members of the Solar Thermal and PV Solar Electricity Industry President Director President 3

4 World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation Market Size in MWp % growth annually 63% 18% Off-Grid & Consumer on-grid Source: EPIA & own estimates 4

5 European Market Support Programs Country Germany Italy Feed-in law Tariff Duration [ ct/kwh] [a] BIPV + 5ct Cap [MW] - 1,200 yearly market [MW] (est.) Portugal Spain France Greece Other countries BIPV Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005) Source: BSW, EPIA (2007) 5

6 Development of the German PV-market 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access (2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 ct per kwh) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources 600 Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 ct per kwh total installed PV-power in MWp : 1,000 Roofs Program annually installed PV power in MWp : 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans for 300 MWp total installed PV power in MWp : 1000 Amendment to EEG 800 Feed-in tariff of ct per kwh Source: BSW (2007) 6

7 PV Companies in Germany I Source: BSW (2007) 7

8 PV Companies in Germany II Source: BSW (2007) 8

9 German PV Production is growing fast In 2006 German solar cell production grew by 50%, Japan by 10% Germany has the highest density of PV producer worldwide [MW] Annual Growth of Solar Cell Production in Germany, Japan, USA D J US In 2007 and 2008 another 15 PV factories are planned with investments of about 1 billion on all steps of the value chain Growing turnover in foreign countries of German PV companies: about 1 billion in 2006 Source: BSW (2007) 9

10 Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 10

11 Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices Photovoltaics Retail prices private and small business Large power consuming industries /kwh 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 900 h/a: 0,60 /kwh 1800 h/a: 0,30 /kwh 0,0 market support programs necessary: Source: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH 11

12 Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Range of Electricity Prices in California /kwh Summer 31,92 $ct/kwh Winter 26,78 summer 20 20,64 21,42 Standard ,35 winter hours 0 hours Source: public information TEPCO (left) data from Alison Hyde, BSW (right) 12

13 Different World PV Market Projections until 2010 MW LBBW (PV Market Model Version 2.0, LBBW Research, Febr. 2007) EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario, PV Med Athens, Apr. 2007) EPIA (Policy driven Estimate, PV Med, Athens, Apr, 2007) Sarasin (Report Solar Energy, Dec. 2006)

14 Price Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules 100 History 10,0 Forecast $/Wp module price 10 20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume $/Wp module price 1, MWp accumulated experience factor 15% 18% 1.8 GWp/a GWp/a GWp/a GWp/a , Source: Strategies Unlimited & own estimates GWp accumulated 14

15 Future Growth Forecast of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn turnover % % PV Power installed, GWp/a % 30% 25% Range depending on experience factor (15% - 18%) PV Market, billion /a 1 Source: pricedata from Fig 14 Growth figures own estimates 40% year 1 15

16 The four main technology routes Crystalline Silicon (wafer based) Thin Film: a-si, micromorph, II-VI compound III V Compounds (GaAs) New Concepts 16 16

17 c-si Technology wafer [µm] kerf loss [µm] cell efficiency [%] % module long term stable, low cost/m² technology In the long run integrated manufacturing of ultrathin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminating processes will drive factory efficiencies and effectiveness. Source: EPIA & own estimates 17

18 Development of c-si and TF / New Concepts Share and Annual Silicon Consumption Relative market share c-si [%] Silicon consumption [g/wp] Scenario 1 S Annual Silicon consumption [1000t/a] Year Source: EPIA & own estimates 18

19 Thin Film Technologies a) Low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) - deposition area: 0,6 1, m² - utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) - creation of semitransparency by thin-layers - flexible solar cells ( web coaters) b) Low cost (price) per Wp - ASI/µc-Si and II VI compound (CIS, CTS) - efficiency from 8 12 % today up to % in 2010 and % in 2030 Source: EPIA & own estimates 19

20 Thin film: TFT Display Technology Development 5 4 in 2005 more than 500 production / R&D machines G7 Area [m²] 3 2 G5+ G6 G5 1 0 G4 G3 G3+ G1 G Year Source: Applied Materials 20

21 Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Fossile (coal, gas) Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow PV solar electricity (south/north) 20/40 5/10 3/6 = own estimates 21

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