exponential energy and the preferred future glen hiemstra

Transcription

1 exponential energy and the preferred future glen hiemstra 1

2 what is your image of the future? 2

3 when we make, not avoid, disruptions we change human future 3

4 when we ignore disruptions so you must look for disruptive changes see Preferred Future directions as early as possible 4

5 what is your image of the future? probable? possible? preferred? 5

6 6 not a mystery

7 long term future generations, in cities intelligent systems environment imperatives emerging electric century reinvented energy 7

8 genera&ons in ci&es global population growth from 7.6 billion to ~ 9.8 billion... with 80% living in cities / metro areas requires energy transition 8

9 80%+ living in cities

10 global food challenge in the next 30 years we have to produce about 50% more food annually than we do today 10

11 Mithun Architects 23 story proposal for Seattle, 300 residences, 1.35 acres crops, chicken farm, cafe, etc. sky greens urban farm, Singapore 11

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13 environmental imperatives Teekay Corporation via YouTube 9 Feb

14 how will we power a smarter future? We're coupling the price of energy to the ever-declining cost of technology. Ramez Naam 14

15 nano bio info cogno robo space autonomy mixed reality 3D AI blockchain 15

16 cost of natural gas peaking or power plant? about 6 cents per Kw/hr 16

17 courtesy ramez naam 17

18 / kwh Wind Power Cost US Interior (Unsubsidized) 15x Price Decline US cents per kwh 10 4 / kwh courtesy ramez naam

19 Morocco 2.8c/kwh Brazil 2c/kwh Mexico 2c/kwh U.S 2c/kwh Aug

20 6.5x Growth 10 Years 487 GW 74 GW 20

21 INCREASED DEMAND PRICES FALL LEARNING TAP INTO NEW MARKETS 21

22 courtesy ramez naam 22

23 courtesy ramez naam 23

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25 $77.00 $ cost of solar power $ x price decline $1.00 $ $

26 Abu Dhabi 2.4c/kwh Mexico 2.5c/kwh Chile 2.15c/kwh India 3.8c/kwh 26

27 Tucson: 3.3 cents per kwh (2.3 cents w/ ITC) courtesy ramez naam 27

28 50x Growth 10 Years courtesy ramez naam 28

29 INCREASED DEMAND PRICES FALL LEARNING TAP INTO NEW MARKETS 29

30 30

31 courtesy ramez naam Javier Gil 31

32 courtesy ramez naam 32

33 33 Germany

34 36 years of US Weather / Demand Data 34

35 ENERGY STORAGE courtesy ramez naam 35

36 US Department of Energy Forecast TESLA courtesy ramez naam 36

37 courtesy ramez naam 37

38 Chile: Solar + Storage: 3.4 cents / kwh courtesy ramez naam 38

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40 MANY MORE STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES courtesy ramez naam 40

41 FLOW BATTERIES Big & Heavy But 20x LIFETIME of Lithium-Ion = LOWER COST courtesy ramez naam 41

42 exponential energy Solar B A T T E R I E S S O L A R W I N D 42

43 courtesy ramez naam 43

44 Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking Fast Planned coal power capacity in pre-construction status has declined from 1,090GW in 2015 to 364GW in July 2018, with the biggest drops in China (light blue) and India (dark blue). Source: Global Coal Plant Tracker, July

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46 COAL OPERATING COST NEW SOLAR COST courtesy ramez naam 46

47 now, what if you disrupt the disruption 47

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49 It s a solar roof, as opposed to modules on a roof Musk said during the earnings call. I think this is really a fundamental part of achieving a differentiated product strategy, where you have a beautiful roof. It s not a thing on the roof. It is the roof. 49

50 ELECTRIC CENTURY 50

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54 INCREASED DEMAND PRICES FALL LEARNING TAP INTO NEW MARKETS 54

55 courtesy ramez naam 55

56 Tesla Model 3 $35,000 goal 220+ mile range 56

57 Electric Vehicle Projections - USA EIA: 20,000 EVs with 200 mile range by 2040 courtesy ramez naam 57

58 courtesy ramez naam 58

59 courtesy ramez naam 59

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61 90% Fewer Moving Parts 61

62 courtesy ramez naam 62

63 where do you go from here? 63

64 what is your image of the future? 64

65 most planning is a search for more efficient past... rather than a search for new future 65

66 The future is not something that just happens to us The future is something we do 66

67 twitter.com/glenhiemstra linkedin.com/glenhiemstra thank you for your time 67