The Future. 3 rd Industrial Revolution. By Jeremy Rifkin

Transcription

1 The Future 3 rd Industrial Revolution By Jeremy Rifkin

2 When Generation, Storage and Connectivity for energy is ubiquitous and inexpensive what could entrepreneurs do? Sustainability: Water & Air? Water is Life, Energy is Quality of Life

3 Past & Present Centralization Paradigm

4 Today s Problem: Visability, Peak Energy & Demand

5 Today Problem: Standby Capacity is Inefficient & Expensive

6 Today s Problem: Grid Outages (Cyber, Weather, Age) (addressable today)

7 The Future Solution is Decentralization Computing Mainframes with Micro Computers with Mobile Computing Unleashed by Innovation Communications Landlines with Cell Phones with Mobile Voice, Video & Data Unleashed by Innovation and Policy Utility Decentralization is Central Power Plants working with Distributed Energy Resources RATIONAL and INEVITABLE Being Unleashed by Technology & Policy

8 Solution Distributed Energy Resources (DER) & Internet of Things (IOT) 1 st Order Result : Negative Network Impact Status Quo Objects 2 nd Order Result: Explosive Growth for DER & IOT Wildcard: Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions Similarly to the Internet

9 The Internet 1975 Processing, Storage and Communications were EXPENSIVE!

10 The Internet Today Processing, Storage and Communications are Cheap! What and Why?

11 Processing Speed and Communications

12 The Next Law Deal Bid $.029 per kwh for Large Scale Solar

13 When Processing, Storage & Communications are inexpensive It Will Means Explosive Growth for DER & IOT Moore's Law Inexpensive Processing Main Frame to Micro Computers Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven) Metcalf's Law Inexpensive Communications Telecommunication - Ma Belle Breakup Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven) Sachs Law Inexpensive Renewables & Storage DER & Internet of Things devices - Centralized to Distributed (E.T. ) When Sachs, Moore's and Metcalf's Laws Come together with big data analytics EVERYTHING will change

14 Standards and Protocols will allow for Sachs, Moore's and Metcalf s Laws to cause accelerated adoption Of (DER & IoT) LANs and WANs for Energy DER and IOT Opportunities

15 Internet of Things IoT 51 Billion Devices coming Every Building 2016 The Grid Smart Meters + Distributed Energy Resources DER - Google - Cisco - IBM - Honeywell - GE - Siemens 2020 IT, ET, IoT & Data I.T. E.T. - Progress - Duke - Nextera - Edison Electric - GE - ITRON Opportunities for Entrepreneur Companies

16 DER & IOT make buildings Intelligent Energy Nodes

17 DER & IOT enables Big Data, which can optimize the load & grid. Original Demand Profile Optimal Demand Profile The Differences Are the Savings!

18 Emerging Market Structure -Prosumer & Dynamic Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Aggregation Providers Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Management Utility (VTN) Aggregator (VTN or VEN) Prosumer Dynamic C&I Residential C&I Residential

19 Path to Dynamic Energy (Transactive)

20 The Not Too Distant Future. Intelligent Energynet (Imagine Big Data Analytics with Machine Learning applied to DER & IOT)

21 Solar and Storage

22 Parking Lot Power Plants w/storage uses real estate but does not consume it

23 1-Peak & Capacity Pain Driving Change 2- Outages & Infrastructure Most expensive energy Stress from Peak Demand Increasing faster than Weather threats other energy costs Cyber threats Time of use pricing Smart Grid Integration Standby Demand Cost Analog vs. Digital Mechanical vs. Electrical Capital Constraints $ COST AVR kw/hr 6am 12pm 6am Solution : Decentralization with DER Result 1 st Order: Negative Network Impact Result 2 nd Order: Explosive Growth for DER Wildcard: Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions

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26 2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kwh for Large Scale Solar

27 Storage Solutions by Sector Renewable Integration Transmission & Distribution Ancillary Service Providers Commercial & Industrial Ramp Control Curtailment Mitigation Firming/Shaping T&D Deferral Voltage Support Frequency Regulation Voltage Regulation Peak Shaving & Demand Charge Management Energy Market Participation Interconnection Compliance Grid Services Power Quality Grid Reliability Enhancement Responsive Reserves Time Shift and Back Up Power EV Charging 27

28 Supplamental

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30 WHAT IS A KILLER APPLICATION? Area of Impact Tool Killer Application Literacy Printing Press Bible Transportation Automobile Model T Computing Micro Computer Spreadsheet Telecommunications Wireless Cell Phone Information Internet Search Engines Energy DER & IOT EnergyNet Intelligent Sustainability Distributed Resources LEDs for Efficiency Solar for On Site Generation Big Data Analytics w/ai

31 The EnergyNet is coming Grid Generate Transmit Distribute Store Buildings MODERNIZATION Efficiency SMART Net Zero Intelligent Grid Node think IPhone Transportation Electric Bio Fuels Nat Gas Fuel Cells