Mobility2030. Mukarram Bhaiji Director, Global Strategy Group KPMG in the UK. 26 September Mobility [ ] #Mobility2030

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1 Mobility2030 Mukarram Bhaiji Director, Global Strategy Group KPMG in the UK 26 September 2017

2 Three main disruptive forces will fundamentally transform how people and things move in the future Electric Vehicles Mobility Value Chain Changing consumer and societal demands Moving people Moving goods Autonomous Vehicles Mobility as a Service Collaboration in the future Mobility Ecosystem 2

3 A day in the life of video

4 New service aggregators will replace the customer s selfaggregation activity Fewer customer touch points as service aggregators replace customer self-aggregation Today 2030 Services Dealer Fuel retailer Customer Government Customer Mobility Services Provider Insurance Finance Experience Aggregator Remarket Workshop Data Aggregator Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 4

5 The downstream value derived from an EV/AV MaaS car could be ten times that of a personal car today by 2030 Vehicle downstream value today Vehicle downstream value 2030 Companies that are able to either create or utilise platforms to provide aggregated services in the future vehicle downstream value chain are likely to maximise their share of the value capture Notes: Source: Today: Revenues associated with a personally owned vehicle over a 10 year period where the consumer is the service aggregator 2030: Revenues associated with a EV, AV, MaaS vehicle over a 10 year period, where mobility service providers and integrators aggregate services for consumers KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 5

6 EV, MaaS and AV are interrelated trends that are expected to see strong growth through to 2040 UK Estimates EV penetration ( ) MaaS penetration ( ) AV penetration ( ) EV sales as a of sales EV parc as a of parc , 30m 26 49, 17m 9 2, 1m 22, 8m 6, 2m MaaS as a of sales MaaS as a of parc , 5m 0.1 1, 0m 1, 1m 9, 3m 4, 1m AV MaaS as a of sales AV MaaS as a of parc , 0m 6, 2m 55 20, 7m 91 42, 15m Projected roadmap EV MaaS AV EV TCO parity Declining battery with ICE reached UK and France - end sales costs reduce EV TCO in early 2020s of petrol/ diesel vehicles L3 (a) L4 (b) Up to 50 of current UK car owners may no longer own a car L5 Source: KPMG analysis of publically available information and SME local market insight Uptake of AV Note: (a) AV returns to human control if the system cannot function correctly; (b) No driver interaction needed and the car will stop itself if the system fails 6

7 Consumers are changing their view of mobility The one user one car model is inefficient for mobility 75 UK households that own a car 95 Time that most cars sit idle each day 101hrs Time spent by Londoners in traffic, per year 31bn Cost of traffic delays to UK motorists in and ownership costs impact daily lives c.60 Car ownership cost as household costs Nearly 60 of consumers in the UK believe that car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025 Success of new mobility services are demonstrating consumers willingness to adopt Driving Licence 33 The likelihood that a year old will have a drivers licence in 2015 Moving me Moving my stuff Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

8 The cost of MaaS provision will be lower than private ownership (on a cost per mile basis), encouraging take-up Cost per mile UK modes National & Metropolitan Rail Electrified AV Mobility Services 2030 MaaS provision could be up to 40 cheaper than private ownership Taxi c Local/National bus Private Car Ride-sharing services Size indicates relative number of miles travelled per capita per year Sources: Department for Transport, Transport for London, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis Stretch case 8

9 The sharing economy will have penetrated the mobility sector, will 50 of current UK car owners not owning a vehicle by of consumers believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in Consumer age band Forecast age band in 2030: of 9 executives believe 33 that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own 22 a car in Agree Neutral Disagree Global > Executives > Global Executives 58 of executives believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025 Agree Neutral Disagree Source:KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 Younger consumers are much more likely to agree that personal vehicle ownership will decline 9

10 Critical success factors that are necessary to make the most of the opportunity Understanding what customers (B2B & B2C) really value Skill at integrating / aggregating other ecosystem elements Understanding of all three elements of the ecosystem: physical, data and finance Advanced data analytics capabilities Secure network and data infrastructure Source:KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 10

11 Key contact in relation to this document Thank you Mukarram Bhaiji Director, Mobility2030, KPMG Global Strategy Group,