Current status and future perspectives of photovoltaics

Transcription

1 Current status and future perspectives of photovoltaics Dr. Marios Theristis, Postdoctoral Researcher 1

2 Outline Current status of RES and Solar Energy Challenges Where is research heading to? New technologies Conclusion 2

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4 Top 10 countries in 2016 based on total PV installed capacity Top 10 countries based on added PV capacity in 2016 Source: Report IEA PVPS T1-31:2017 4

5 Challenges for PV Cost Efficiency/Energy yield Reliability Grid/Market integration 5

6 Cost Reduction: Is this possible?

7 The accelerating pace of change Levelized cost of energy at a couple of the preeminent utility-scale solar sites around the world is going below 3 /kwh the SunShot 2030 cost goal October 2017: Saudi Arabia s 300 MW PV plant was bid at 1.79 /kwh September 2016: Abu Dhabi Electricity and Water Authority s 350 MW PV plant accepted a bid from JinkoSolar Marubeni at 2.42 /kwh energy.gov/solar-office 7

8 Innovative packaging material for improved energy yield Up to 10 C temperature difference Reduced thermal losses (>1%) Improved reliability expected 8

9 PV intermittency and the power grid Grid Controls Scheduling Power Systems Planning & Design Milliseconds to Minutes PV solar intermittency raises grid stability and reliability concerns Hours to Days PV variability increases operational complexity Years Higher PV penetration requires increased grid flexibility Source: First Solar energy.gov/solar-office 9

10 Inflexible solar saturation already evident in California TYPICAL SPRING DAY Actual 3-hour ramp of 13GW on December 18, 2016 Steeper Ramps (actual) 2013 (actual) over generation risk 2020 Deeper Belly * Net Load of 8.5GW on May 14, 2017 ramp need ~13GW in three hours energy.gov/solar-office 10

11 Dispatchable solar is on the way 11

12 Machine Learning can be used to automatically manage electricity distribution and learn to forecast energy use, among others! 12

13 Failure detection routines and algorithms Devices to detect faults and failures 13

14 Existing and future grid analysis for high PV penetration Optimum Forecasting Solutions Active Plant Control through grid management software PV Plant PV Plant Control Inverter Data SCADA PV Power Production Model (Machine Learning Model) Sky Maps Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) Data Logger Day ahead and hour ahead PV power forecasting. Remote Operation M.G. Lightning Ltd

15 Effective use of storage with PV for achieving high PV penetration levels PV Storage Self-consumption Energy management by active prosumers Demonstration Sites with existing PV systems (3-5 kwp) & Smart Meters 5 Pilot Regions: 8 15 kwh ESS installed at households Cyprus: kwh social ESS at 5 households located in the same neighbourhood Features Local weather forecasts for solar power generation prediction Control for all compatible household devices Maintain on-grid connectivity during system frequency disturbance incidents Time of Use tariffs

16 Added value PV deployments PV modules that produce energy AND provide another value, such as Protect building from elements (Roof, windows, façades) Reduce evaporation on reservoirs (Floating PV) Allow more varied crops to be grown Reduce fuel needs (remote grids, solar cars, ships) Value is more than energy Appearance, weight, physical properties are all important. Source: J. Stein, 10 th PVPMC, Albuquerque, NM,

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18 Conclusion The future of PV is BRIGHT Has to be part of our Energy Mix

19 Contact information: Marios Theristis, PhD Postdoctoral Researcher