The Future of Roads. Collaborating for Industry Solutions in the Built Environment (CISBE) Symposium

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1 Collaborating for Industry Solutions in the Built Environment (CISBE) Symposium

2 Outline Changing Landscape The Opportunities The Future Research Direction Images Credit: Adobe Stock

3 The changing landscape of urban mobility Conventional approaches Emerging approaches Supply and capacity Focus on mobility Street as road for vehicles Physical dimensions Vehicle-oriented Motorised transport Travel as a derived demand Minimisation of travel times Petrol taxes/vehicle registration fees Private car ownership Demand management and resilience Accessibility Shared between all modes Social dimensions People-oriented and customer-focused Hierarchy of modes Travel also a valued activity Reliability of travel times User-pay models Car-sharing and ride-sharing Source: Low Carbon Mobility for Future Cities: Principles and Applications, Forthcoming in 2017 (Dia, H. ed.) 3

4 Car passenger-kilometres per capita Canberra Perth Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Sydney Sources: BITRE 2015 Yearbook; Peak Car Use in Australian Cities (Newman and Kenworthy, 2015); chartingtransport.com 4

5 Is it a structural change? POSSIBLE CAUSES? Growth of public transport Growth of a culture of urbanism Rise in fuel prices Reversal of urban sprawl Ageing populations of cities Hitting the Marchetti wall 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Melbourne: Growth in private and public transport passenger kilometres since % 22% 7% Private transport Public transport Population Sources: BITRE 2015 Yearbook; chartingtransport.com 5

6 Just 100 cities account for 30% of the world s economy London and New York, together, represent 40% of the global market capitalisation In 2025, 600 cities are projected to generate 58% of the global GDP Image Credit: Adobe Stock 6

7 Images Credit: Adobe Stock THE OPPORTUNITIES 7

8 No ordinary disruption Self-Driving technologies Future of vehicles? Autonomous Shared On-demand Electric Sharing Economy Vehicle Electrification Disruptive Mobility Mobile and Cloud Computing Blockchain Internet of Things Images Credit: Adobe Stock

9 9 It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future Yogi Berra Looking for evidence of future change Trends Technologies Business models

10 10 I think there s going to be more change in the next five to ten years than there s been in the last 50 General Motors CEO Mary Barra It is clear we are on the cusp of a revolution in mobility, from carsharing to autonomous driving to the customer experience Ford CEO Mark Fields

11 11

12 12

13 13 Why electric? Performance Zero tailpipe emissions - Increasingly stringent emissions targets - Improves air quality - Reduces carbon emissions Running costs - Cheaper to fuel (potentially zero) - Cheaper to maintain (Tesla Model S has 18 moving parts, compared to around 2,000 with petrol/diesel engine) Why not? Price Range & anxiety Lack of charging infrastructure

14 14 Auto manufacturers are moving to electric vehicles: General Motors believes in an all-electric future Mark Reuss, General Motors GM releasing 20 new electric vehicles by 2030 Tens of billions of investment in EV manufacturing Countries and cities outlining plans to ban Internal Combustion Engines (ICE): Norway 2025 Paris 2030 UK & France 2040

15 15

16 16 Cruise Automation (General Motors)

17 17 Driven over 3.5 million autonomous miles Invested US$1.1 billion between 2009 & 2015 Disengagements of system 1 every 2,000 km in every 8,000 km in 2016 Early Rider program now testing with real people in Phoenix

18 18

19 19 Spot the car New York, 5 th Avenue 1900 Spot the horse New York, 5 th Avenue 1913

20 20 Hyperloop Intercity transport Autonomous passenger drones (electric flying cars) UberElevate Dubai to launch shuttle service using Volocopter Daimler investing in Volocopter Airbus has released their own concept vehicle Autonomy in Infrastructure Construction?

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