Electrification: Past and Future

Transcription

1 Electrification: Past and Future Tom Wilson Principal Technical Executive Energy and Environmental Analysis, EPRI 4 th Annual Expert Workshop: Challenges in Electricity Decarbonization Paris, FR October 1, 217

2 EPRI Born in a Blackout Founded in 1972 as an independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research New York City, The Great Northeast Blackout,

3 Our Members 45+ participants in more than 3 countries EPRI members generate approximately 9% of the electricity in the United States International funding nearly 25% of EPRI s research, development, and demonstrations 3

4 Electricity Use Has Grown Faster than Total Energy for More than A Century What Will or Could Happen Next? Growth Driven By Efficiency, Convenience, Safety, and Low Cost 4

5 Two Fundamental Analysis Approaches FOCUS ON TODAY PROSPECT-BY-PROSPECT FORWARD LOOKING AGGREGATE POTENTIAL THE TIGHTER THE CO 2 CAP, THE GREATER THE ROLE ELECTRICITY PLAYS Edmonds, Wilson, Wise, Weyant. 26 Environmental Economics and Policy. 5

6 Electrification Potential Depends on Fuel Use and Technology (214 US Energy Use, Quad Btus) Cars and light trucks Space heating Cool / Light / Appl. / Elec. Industry process Heavy-duty trucks Buildings other Industry boilers Constr. / Ag. / Min. Aviation Bus / Transit / Rail Industry other Maritime Military Quad BTUs Electricity Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Bioenergy 6

7 Quad Btus U.S. Final Energy Drivers of Growth Based on DOE AEO GDP Growth (AEO) Structural Change (AEO) Energy Service Growth 8 Efficiency Improvements Non-Electric Energy Electricity Hypothetical Energy Use with no change in fuel/technology choice 7

8 Quad Btus U.S. Final Energy Reference EPRI Projection Energy Declines Share of Electricity Increases Structural Change (AEO) 8 Efficiency Improvements 6 Electrification 4 2 Non-Electric Energy 32% 2% Electricity

9 Billion VMT Quad Btus Passenger Vehicles: Two Revolutions (Electric and Autonomous) 45 Service Demand Final Energy 4 35 Deadheading (VMTs with no passenger) Autonomous EV EV 15 1 Efficiency Improvements 15 PHEV Electrification 1 ICEV 5 Liquid Fuels Electricity

10 TWh For Traditional Electric Loads, Efficiency Gains Likely to Exceed Population and Economic Growth % Efficiency Gains Outweigh Economic Growth 3 2 Buildings (before electrification) 1 Industry (before electrification)

11 TWh Load Growth Driven by Electrification % % Consumer Adoption of Economic Electrification Technologies Displaces Direct Use of Fossil Fuels Efficiency Gains Outweigh Economic Growth Electrification Vehicles Buildings Industry 3 2 Buildings (before electrification) 1 Industry (before electrification) Assumes technology-driven adoption only

12 GW Load Shape Changes Electrification and Efficiency Impact 6 SE-Central 215 Heating Peak Exceeds Cooling Peak in Some Regions Space Heating Non-Seasonal 2 1 Cooling Vehicle Charging J F M A M J J A S O N D 12

13 GW Load Shape Changes How Will This Impact Supply Mix/Grid Assets? 6 SE-Central 25 5 Space Heating 4 Non-Seasonal 3 2 Cooling 1 Vehicle Charging J F M A M J J A S O N D 13

14 GW Hourly Load Shape Aggregated Across Uses 14 SE-Central Winter Peak Summer Peak J F M A M J J A S O N D 14

15 Aggregate Load GW Load Shape Changes How Will This Impact Supply Mix/Grid Assets? Winter Peak SE-Central Summer Peak J F M A M J J A S O N D 15

16 EPRI Initiative on Efficient Electrification Much More to Come National Assessment Q1 218 Regional Assessments Together Shaping the Future of Electricity Industrial Centers of Excellence Efficient Electrification Newsletter International Conference August 2-23, 218 Long Beach, CA Efficient Electrification Research Project Portfolio 16

17 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 17