The Future of Distributed Energy

Transcription

1 The Future of Distributed Energy Optimizing Return on Investment Caroline Choi, Senior Vice President for Regulatory Affairs, Southern California Edison Company Ari Citrin, Managing Director, MVP Capital Partners Tanuj Deora, Director, Smart Energy Power Alliance Bharath Srinivasan, Senior Vice President, Distributed Sun LLC Merrill L. Kramer, Partner, Pierce Atwood, LLP, Moderator October 17, 2017 Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 1

2 Distributed Energy Resources

3 New U.S. Electricity Capacity Additions Q Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 3

4 Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 4

5 DER Utility Impacts Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 5

6 Solar Deployment Across the U.S. through Q Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 6

7 U.S. Generating Mix Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 7

8 Declining Solar Prices Drive Market Growth October 17, 2017

9 Price of Wind Has Substantially Declined Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 9

10 So Has the Price of Lithium-ion Batteries Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 10

11 U.S. Energy Storage Deployment E Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor, Q3 2017

12 What is the future of energy? Strategy Finance Commodities Technology Transport Utility strategies and investment International expansion, unbundling, centralized vs distributed approaches, new retail strategies 2 Empowered consumer opportunities Small-scale PV & storage, connected home, grid independence, off-grid and mini-grid market demand, EVs Investment opportunities and risks Political risk, industry consolidation protectionism, emerging market opportunities, green bonds, yieldcos, institutional investor interest, M&A 4 Changing market models for renewable energy Corporate procurement (C&I), auctions, retail tariffs, realised power prices, beyond subsidies, power purchase agreements, market design, tariff reform, levelized cost of energy Shifting power and gas fundamentals Power market forecasts, LNG trade, coal demand, gas transport and storage 6 Climate risk strategies Carbon risk, climate change negotiations, strategy of oil majors Grid flexibility and system resilience Storage, short- and longterm balancing, changing load profiles, batteries, demand response, interconnection, market design 8 Leading-edge technologies Solar/wind cost declines, software & hardware for distributed assets, blockchain, Internet of Things, machine learning, transmission, hydrogen/fuel cells, chemical storage Electrification of transport Electric vehicles, policy support, infrastructure, advanced materials, urban solutions 10 Mobility services and autonomy Access over ownership, business models, autonomous systems Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

13 Where are we headed? Figure 1: Simple representation of triple-bottom-line power grid appraisal Optimal grid Today s grid Tomorrow s grid Objective of wholesale power markets Cheap Cheap Cheap Reliable Objective of capacity markets Clean Objective of environmental incentives Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Reliable Clean Reliable Clean

14 The Future of Distributed Energy Thank You! Caroline Choi, Senior Vice President for Regulatory Affairs, Southern California Edison Company Ari Citrin, Managing Director, MVP Capital Partners Tanuj Deora, Director, Smart Energy Power Alliance Bharath Srinivasan, Senior Vice President, Distributed Sun LLC Merrill L. Kramer, Partner, Pierce Atwood, LLP, Moderator October 17, 2017 Energy Bar Association 2017 Forum 14