The Energy Transition and Idea Creation: The energy transition perspective of a global energy operator

Transcription

1 The Energy Transition and Idea Creation: The energy transition perspective of a global energy operator Daniele Agostini, Head of Low Carbon and European Energy Policies Enel Holding Rome, March 3 rd, 2018

2 The context is evolving ever more rapidly The speed of policy developments is matched by the pace of technological change GtCO 2 Target Setting /MWh LCOE projection** ?? * Source: Scenarios from Climate Action Tracker 2016 ** Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017, example for Germany 2

3 Filling the Paris Agreement ambition gap The energy transition will have to be increasingly extensive, deep and fast Global emission abatement in the 66% 2 C Scenario A drastically different landscape in 2050 Low-carbon electricity representing 95% of the energy mix Nearly 70% of new cars will be electric The entire existing building stock retrofitted CO 2 intensity of the industrial sector 80% lower than today 3 Source: IEA-Irena, Perspective for the energy transition, 2017

4 The role of electricity in a low carbon world A growing contribution to the decarbonisation of transport and H&C The EU 2050 Roadmap tells us: All scenarios show electricity will have to play a much greater role than now [ ] and will have to contribute to the decarbonisation of transport and heating/cooling The question becomes: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Decarbonisation scenarios Current trends scenarios Why wait? 15% Electricity share of EU final energy demand Source: EU Roadmap

5 The acceleration of electricity penetration Upscaling mitigation will require exploiting synergies across different policy areas EU28 Air Quality EU28 Security of Supply EU28 Decarbonization Urban population exposed to air pollution levels damaging human health ( ) PM2.5 PM10 EU limit values % Import dependency GtCO 2 5,7 CO Target -40% 4,5 3,4 PM2.5 PM10 WHO guidelines value Hard Coal Crude & LNG Natural Gas Rapidly increasing penetration of electricity 5

6 How will the electricity sector look like in 2050? A very very different world Sustainably Decarbonized Generation will be carbon neutral, some fossil fuel may remain behind depending on lock-in effect on conventional generation Structurally Digitalized Digital technology will play a key role in optimizing supply side resources, demand side centers and storage elements Widely Distributed Supply and demand side will be distributed with a level of fragmentation depending on the effectiveness of aggregators Openly Connected The market place will see strong interaction among a much wider variety of players Dynamically Innovative The pace of change and transformation will be high with players testing innovative technologies and business models 6

7 The Paris Ambition Gap calls for a paradigm shift Upscaling deployment will require partnerships spanning across industries The Future landscape Sector involvement Electric Vehicles Solar PV, Wind Electrification application Electric Vehicles Power Sector involved Transportation Manufacturing TLC ICT Increasing applications of electricity Solar PV, Wind Smart Electric Appliances Smart electric appliances Heat pumps Heat pumps 7

8 Consumer empowerment opens new opportunities Technological and business model innovation will drive change Vehicle to Home solutions Denmark Vehicle to Grid (V2G) Project Enel provides V2G chargers (10 kw per each) Providers Nissan provides electric vehicles Nuvve provides the V2G aggregation software Clients Purchaser Energinet.dk purchases ancillary services Frederiksberg Forsyning (danish utility) is the client (10 Nissan ENV Enel V2G Charger) Cross-industry partnership to open up new business models 10

9 Decarbonisation may lead to early retirement Technological and business model innovation will leave assets stranded in their wake Energy Asset Expected Lifetimes* LCOE projection** /MWh Coal Gas Nuclear Solar Wind Power Grids / Gas Pipelines * Source: IEA, Projected cost of generating electricity 2015, Harvard Landscape Infrastructure 2012 ** Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017, example for Germany 9

10 The Enel Future-E Project Italy Meeting the challenge of change requires innovative thinking 23 Power Plants involved 2 Projects Completed 13GW Total power to be decommissioned 7 Call for Projects on going SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY Creating shared value for our business and for local communities Redeployment of ENEL employees within other company divisions Local capacity building through ad hoc training programs Promoting local employment as well as new development opportunities for local communities ECONOMICAL SUSTAINABILITY Creation of economic development through site reconversion, promoting the potentiality of local lands and communities Business development opportunities Promotion of local natural, cultural and artistic excellences and assets 3 Call for Projects to be launched in 2018 ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INNOVATION Protecting the environment and local lands and communities Reusing materials and revitalizing site features Reducing CO2 emissions Development of start-ups and new businesses Enhancing creative thinking and solutions Leveraging on new partners in ICT, new technologies 10

11 Futur-E Project Selected Re-qualification Proposals A creative openly innovative approach grounded in the circular economy is what is needed Car Circuit Extreme Sports Algae Production Luxury Mall Gas stokages 3D Printing Resort Sport City Data Center 11

12 #EnelInnovationHubs: global presence Global reach to catch innovation where it happens and use it where is needed 12

13 Closing Remarks The Energy Transition is bound to be much faster and deeper than expected driven by policy, technology and climate change Crossing sectorial boundaries new ways of experiencing energy will rapidly emerge also leading to new combinations of different technologies Addressing the challenge of converting the old ways to the new green economy will be harder than expected but necessary to ensure social sustainability Innovation and creativity will be cathalysing change 13