National Engineering 2017: SMART CAR 4.0. Ninnart Chaithirapinyo. Toyota Motor Thailand Co., Ltd. November 16, 2017

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1 National Engineering 2017: SMART CAR 4.0 Ninnart Chaithirapinyo Toyota Motor Thailand Co., Ltd. November 16, 2017

2 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES CLIMATE CHANGE is no longer a far-off problem; It is happening here, it is happening now. The Arctic Ice is disappearing and will be gone by 2085! Major Causes of Climate Change #Paris Agreement To keep the global rise in temperatures below 2 C by Manufacturing Transportation Power Plant Thailand aims to reduce CO 2 by 20% of BAU, est. 115 million tons by Source: NASA Ninnart Ch. 2

3 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond Comparison of CO2 Emission from Vehicle in Japan In Japan, (1) HV less release of CO 2 than conventional vehicles about 50% saver and (2) EV creates zero emission on (Tank-to-Wheel CO 2 ) but still release CO 2 in electricity production process (Well-to-Tank CO 2 ) higher than HV. Source: International Energy Agency Ninnart Ch. 3

4 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond Projected Alternative Light-Duty Vehicle Sales (During ) Check Point Source: International Energy Agency Ninnart Ch. 4

5 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES URBANIZATION in 2050, the world will be populated by 9 billion people; 70% will be living in cities. Urban Population in 2014 (Percentage %) Mobility Demand Traffic Congestion Waste & Pollution Source: The United Nations Ninnart Ch. 5

6 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES Motorization rate has been increasing rapidly; it swelled up to +25% within just 10 years. Motorization Rates in 2015 (Number of cars/ 1,000 people) World average: 182 Source: OICA, 2016 Ninnart Ch. 6

7 AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Shared Mobility shared use of car; offering mobility as a service for better accessibility, travel flexibility, easier trips for all. RIDESHARING Adds more passengers to a pre-existing trip such as car pooling CARSHARING Provides the access to an automobile for short-term through membership RIDESOURCING Connects passengers with drivers who use private cars such as Uber VS Source: University of California - Berkeley, 2016 & US Department of Transport Ninnart Ch. 7

8 AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Automated Driving The evolution for Safety, Efficiency, and Freedom 0 No Automation Driver performs all functions << Require smooth road surface i.e. expressway, as well as communication with pedestrian >> 1 Driver Assistance A system assisting (ABS, cruise control) In production 2 Partial Automation More systems (steering, acceleration) R & D 3 Conditional Automation Systems perform all but still need driver Next Target 4 High Automation All functions are automated even with no human response 5 Full Automation Fully automated in every circumstances without driver Source: Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Ninnart Ch. 8

9 AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Connected Vehicle will sense and communicate with many things for 360 awareness. Source: David McKinney, INTEL CORPORATION Ninnart Ch. 9

10 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK The whole world is moving towards sustainability with zero emission. Tail Pipe Zero Emission trend is started; many countries ban Gasoline Engine (Do you know how many countries have already launched regulation to ban Gasoline Engine, by when?) England France India Germany Announced the trend, not yet regulated! Norway Netherland Source: OICA and IEA analysis based on EVI country submissions Ninnart Ch. 10

11 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Electric cars stock surpassed 2 million vehicles in 2016 after crossing the 1 million threshold in 2015 Evolution of Global Electric Car Stock (During ) Source: IEA analysis based on EVI country submissions Ninnart Ch. 11

12 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Electric Vehicles could change the auto landscape in the future, but its success depends on better batteries. ELECTRICITY Energy insecurity Excise tax loss **US Government is now considering annual road tax for EVs Paving the pathway to future of Electric Vehicles BATTERY High cost How to overcome these limitations? RESELLING Low resale prices CHARGING STATION Limited public charging station investment due to low margin, space requirement, and long charging time Issues of household charging [Case Study in Japan] EV Stand = 16,900 units *Normal 8 hrs (11,000) + Quick 30 mins (5,900) EV Stock = 86,390 units 1) EVs Growth depends on R&D on energy intensity and charging time and National policy such as air pollution issue 2) HVs that use an internal combustion engine running on biofuels could also be benefit to agricultural sector Source: Ninnart Ch. 12

13 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK The mass acceptance of EVs to a large extent is also reliant on consumers perception. Voice From Customers What car buyers think of Electric Vehicles? What are general customers concerning of buying EVs? Action: Subsidize charger installation Long charging time 6% Others 11% Would US customers consider EVs if available? Only 8-10% of customers say they would definitely consider EVs Few public chargers 10% No private chargers 10% High price 50% Short driving range 13% Action: R&D Program Action: Subsidize car purchase 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Definitely would Probably would Maybe Probably not Definitely not Source: Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting LLC and Syndicated New Vehicle Customer Study (NVCS), USA Ninnart Ch. 13

14 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Customer s consideration towards EVs. Percentage of customers that identify themselves at each purchase funnel stage Between almost 30-45% of buyers in the US respectively consider an EV purchase today. Source: McKinsey Sustainable Mobility Initiative 2016 Electrified Vehicle Consumer Surveys Ninnart Ch. 14

15 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Automotive Technology Trends in the United States of America EVs Situation Case Study in USA Current market response to BEVs is still weak comparing to ICE vehicles. EV Sales Volume by Model % of Market 65,641 69,185 85,536 Others 96.3% 51, e Spark EV 13, Leaf BMW i3 Tesla X Tesla S 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 2.1% ICE FCV PHV BEV Diesel GHV BEVs are 0.5% (85,536 units) of a 17.5 million units market with only Tesla showing significant sales growth. Low demand for Gold ZEV and it will be difficult to sell significant volume without incentives. Source: PAI Ninnart Ch. 15

16 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS The connected car is going mass market; cars will sense and connect with many things. Standardize Data Communication Module (DCM) globally Building global communications platform and expand big data usage Source: Toyota Motor Corporation Ninnart Ch. 16

17 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS The connected car is going mass market; cars will sense and connect with many things. Vehicle Size Types of Alternative Energy Vehicles People can select eco cars for different uses Hybrid Vehicle & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Route Bus Fuel Cell Vehicle HD Truck Electric Vehicle Short Commuter HV FCV FCV [Bus] Delivery Truck Delivery Car PHV Personal Mobility Driving Distance Fuel Electricity Oil / Bio-fuel / CNG / Synthetic fuel etc. Hydrogen Source: Toyota Motor Corporation Ninnart Ch. 17

18 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond Hybrid technology underpins Toyota s PHVs, EVs and FCVs (Global Automotive Sales 2015 = 89 M Units) Hybrid Vehicle - HV (1,440 K units) Next-generation Vehicles EV Short distance ~150 Km Over 20K parts will disappear 0.3 million units sold in 2015 (2003) (2009) (2015) PHV EV mode for Km No excise tax of electricity 0.1 million units sold in 2015 (1997) FCV FCV has high potential to expand in the future 700 units sold in 2015 [ Which one will be the winner? ] Source: Toyota Motor Corporation Ninnart Ch. 18

19 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS The FCV, fueled by the clean energy provided by hydrogen, is one of Toyota's solutions for one hundred years in the future. Characteristics of FCV Generating electricity with hydrogen and oxygen Run a motor with electricity generated by chemical reaction between hydrogen from a tank mounted on a vehicle and oxygen in the air to drive a car.. Clean mechanism without gas emission Source: Toyota Motor Corporation Ninnart Ch. 19

20 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS The hydrogen society and energy sources of the future. Characteristics of FCV The Toyota Fuel Cell System (TFCS) moves the Mirai Ninnart Ch. 20

21 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond Fuel cell vehicles are not just eco-cars Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could change mobility forever Source: Toyota Motor Corporation Ninnart Ch. 21

22 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Harmonious Mobility Network a new mobility option to support sustainable society and life style change. Ninnart Ch. 22

23 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS CU Toyota Ha:mo Create new mobility option to support sustainable society and life style change. CU TOYOTA Ha:mo R&D project to promote EV car-sharing 12 Stations 10 Chargers 33 Parking Lots Ninnart Ch. 23

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25 TOYOYA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Automobile recycling to save energy, reduce emissions, and provide environmental care. Paving the pathway to End of Life Vehicle (ELV) Project in Thailand Where dismantlers who properly collect materials and treat waste hardly exist Ninnart Ch. 25

26 CONCLUSION Toyota has been using its Guiding Principles to produce reliable vehicles and sustainable development of society and lead the way to the future. Ninnart Ch. 26

27 THANK YOU