Implementation of Future Transportation Technologies: Getting Beyond the Low Hanging Fruit without Chopping Down the Tree

Transcription

1 Implementation of Future Transportation Technologies: Getting Beyond the Low Hanging Fruit without Chopping Down the Tree

2 Balancing Business Needs with Societal Change Paradigm Shifts Consumer Values Global Agreements Getting Serious Alternative Energy Regulations Economic Incentives Voluntary Lifestyle Changes Low Hanging Fruit Conservation, reducing emissions Hybrids CFLs Carbon offsets

3 Challenges of Future Mobility Resources Infrastructure Maintenance With declining fuel tax base Emissions Climate

4 Social Trends and Future Market and Vehicle Requirements - Individual customer requirements - Polarization of income - Demographic change Society - Urbanization - increasing traffic congestion - seamless mobility Mobility Energy - climatic changes - CO2 - Peak of Oil Security - increasing vehicle numbers - statutory requirements - new markets

5 Fundamental Enablers to Successful Commercialization of Future Mobility Technologies 1. Strong leadership of a clear national transportation strategy Consistent/persistent BROAD INDUSTRY support of strategy Pathway to diversity and renewables; addressing energy security, energy/grid vulnerability, environment Industry confidence in government s commitment to alernative vehicles / future technologies Public confidence in battery safety and benefits through education 2. Sustained, long term, compelling incentives Overcoming near term and longer term business risk Substantial incentives for customers, infrastructure, automakers, suppliers, Early demand development - government as a customer - beginning consumer education curve 3. Coordinated vehicle / infrastructure market introduction Geographically concentrated market regions Infrastructure deployment coordination - Alternative fuels - non-home charging stations

6 Examples of Policy and Planning Decisions That Affect Mobility Transport Policies Fuel prices Road tolls Roadway supply and design Sidewalk and path supply and quality Public transit service supply and quality Mobility management programs Land Use Policies Location of facilities and activities (jobs, housing, services, etc.) Land use density and mix Parking supply and price Building orientation Positive Incentives Public transit improvements Walking and cycling improvements Rideshare and car-share programs Flextime and telecommuting Pay-As-You-Drive pricing Parking cash out and unbundling Negative Incentives Mixed Road tolls Parking pricing Fuel tax increases Smart growth New urbanism Parking management Transit oriented development Car-free planning Traffic calming

7 Urbanization: Less space and more emissions 2007 = 50% Poeple ~ 3.3 billion people 2050 = 70-80% in Urban ==> 20% - 40% VMT Reduction by 2050 Quelle: Raskin et al. 2002

8 Fuel Use Scenario in California: There is no free ride Fuel Use Change from BAU (million gallons gasoline-equivalent) Fuel Tax Revenues: If the above is correct, local state and federal governments will have to find ways to increase revenues, or decrease services.

9 BEV Pathway to Commercialization: Conceptual (Is it Realistic) Pilot Commercialization Early Commercialization Mass Commercialization Battery Technology development, manufacturing scale-up, Early market preparation/education validation under real world conditions OEM/Vehicles Technology refinement and Mass Market preparation Commercial deployment into mass market 1000 veh / OEM veh / OEM 50,000 veh / OEM $ 50K / veh $35k / veh $25k / veh Battery Manufacturing Infrastructure Leadtime Small Scale Battery Manufacturing Charging Stations Leadtime Medium Scale Battery Manufacturing/ Charging Stations Leadtime Large Scale Battery Manufacturing/ Charging Stations Underestimated Hurdles: Early Capitalization challenge (battery manufacturing/servicing and charging infrastructure) Leadtimes required to execute external infrastructure challenges

10 What do consumers want?