Future trends on critical materials. Patrick Koller June 2018

Transcription

1 Future trends on critical materials Patrick Koller June 2018

2 Agenda 1 Energy mix evolution 2 Critical raw material availability 3 Necessary investments 4 Take away World Materials Forum June

3 Agenda 1 Energy mix evolution 2 Critical raw materials availability 3 Necessary investments 4 Take away World Materials Forum June

4 Relative importance of powertraindrivenby regulation, use cases and cost INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE GDI Diesel Hybrid Natural Gas ZERO EMISSIONS BEV FCEV Stringent regulations and new technology breakthroughs Light vehicles Commercial vehicles Utility Trucks (Europe > 2l) All markets getting emissionized including China and India Commercial Vehicles, High Horsepower engines & Industry Nearly 50% of the market will be electrified by 2030 High horsepower Smart Cities will drive new mobility requirements World Materials Forum June

5 Powertrain mix assumptions Light vehicles 92m vehicles 1% 4% 107m vehicles 8% 113m vehicles 2% Fuel cell EV Pure ICE powertrains drop from 95% in % Battery EV to 52% in % 35% Hybrid Diesel powertrain decline might accelerate further 77% Fuel cell is the unique zero emissions alternative 50% 43% 18% 12% 9% Gasoline Diesel High regional variation in EV take up by 2025 US around 5% China and Europe above 12% World Materials Forum June

6 Battery Electric Vehicle and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle in 2030 Complementary zero emission solutions FUEL CELL BATTERY VEHICLE 500 Km range 300 Km range 500 Km range 300 Km range Energy storage Energy conversion Drivetrain 7,500 6,900 10,200 5,400 5 kg 3 kg Hydrogen tank Valves Fuel cell stack 100 kw DC/DC Converter Li-Ion Battery 1.6 kwh Electric Motor Hydrogen tank 100 kwh Li-ion battery DC/DC Converter On-board charger Inverter 40 kwh Li-ion battery Practicality should be taken into consideration Charging time on BEV: from 45mn to 2 hours Filling time for FCEV: 3 minutes Range cost is the strong differentiating point 1,200 to 2,200 (depending on the range of the vehicle) for extra 100 km on BEV 300 for extra 100 km on FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles are cheaper for ranges over 350 km and better when filling time is critical World Materials Forum June

7 Agenda 1 Energy mix evolution 2 Critical raw material availability 3 Necessary investments 4 Take away World Materials Forum June

8 Impact of new powertrains on critical materials by 2030 Material Usage Reserves (KT, est.) Production (KT, 2017) Additionnal requirements for electrified powertrains (KT, 2030) Criticality Lithium Batteries 40, Nickel Batteries 74,000 2, Cobalt Batteries 7, Platinum Fuel Cell World Materials Forum June

9 Agenda 1 Energy mix evolution 2 Critical raw material availability 3 Necessary investments 4 Take away World Materials Forum June

10 Investments in $bn per million vehicles produced/year and per million vehicles park for infrastructure BATTERIES Materials Ore extraction Raw material production Electrode production Cell production Module assembly Pack assembly $9bn $4.5bn $4.5bn (Excluding possible switch to solid state) Infrastructures Solar power plant (2500GWh) Charging plugs $2bn $1bn $1bn FUEL CELL Stack Platinum ore extraction Raw material production Membrane assembly Stack assembly $3bn $0.5bn $5.6bn Tank PAN production White fiber production Carbon fiber production Tank manufacturing and test $1bn $1bn $0.1bn Infrastructures Green station with H2 production $4 to 6bn $4 to 6bn World Materials Forum June

11 Agenda 1 Energy mix evolution 2 Critical raw material availability 3 Necessary investments 4 Take aways World Materials Forum June

12 Take aways Powertrain electrification is a strong trend of future mobility BEV will grow fast but hurdles like technology effectivity, costs and use cases might slow it down. It might become an opportunity for Fuel Cell vehicles, the only zero emission alternative. Critical raw materials shouldn t be an issue until 2030 but will have to be managed beyond. Material recycling will be key to support the electrification growth Huge public and private investments will be requested for BEV and FCEV respectively $9bn and $5.6bn per 1 million vehicle produced per year for bill of materials $2bn and $5bn for infrastructure per additional 1 million vehicles on the market World Materials Forum June

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14 Batteries Lithium is not critical thanks to important reserves Electrification market(millions) Lithium consumption(tons) Relevant impact BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid According to scenarii, the consumption of Lithium dedicated to Light Vehicles in 2030 could represent from half or even tend to the total current production volume (200,000 tons) Batteries could represent more than half of the consumption in 2030 Reserves of lithium are not critical : around 40Mt However we can expect huge portion of recycled lithium by 2030 and other technologies will certainly emerge like Na based batteries for non mobility application which could de-stress the lithium market Current market Market outlook(2030)* Estimated reserves(tons) Polymer production Casting molds 4% 8% flux powder 6% Air treatment Lubricating 10% greases Miscellaneous Source: IM, Lithium Markets (2016) 5% 10% 32% Ceramics& glass 35% Batteries Casting molds flux powder Air treatment Lubricating greases Ceramics& glass Polymer production 3% 3% 3% 6% 19% 4% *: Non automotive consumptionconsidered as unchanged Miscellaneous 62% Batteries Chile USA China Argentina Bolivia DR Congo Australie Congo Canand Serbia Russia Other World Materials Forum June

15 Batteries: Nickel resources are not critical even with higher ratio of nickel in batteries but investments in mines will be needed 60 Electrification market(millions) Nickel consumption(tons) Nickel production will have to significantly increase BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid With NMC 811, share of Nickel in battery will increase from around 0,4 kg / kwh to around 0,8 kg /kwh Nickel reserves are close to 74,000,000t Consumption is currently around 2,400,000t per year but automotive batteries will need additional t by 2030 and more beyond Only 40% of the resources can be used for battery-grade Current mines shouldn t be able to absorb mid-term demand Current market Market outlook(2030)* Estimated reserves(k tons) Other including batteries Non ferrous alloys and super alloys Electro plating 12% 36% Source: Handelsbanken Capital Market 7% 45% Stainless steel Other including batteries Electro plating 37% 5% 26% *: Non automotive consumptionconsidered as unchanged 32% Stainless steel Non ferrous alloys and super alloys Australia Brazil Russia Other countries Cuba Philippines Indonesia South Africa Columbia China Canada Guatemala Madagascar World Materials Forum June

16 Batteries: Cobalt is not critical by 2030 (except location of mines) but will have to be managed beyond Electrification market(millions) Cobalt consumption(tons) An impact which has to be managed BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid Cobalt is at 95% a by-product of Nickel or Copper The consumption of cobalt will double between 2017 and 2025 to reach 250,000t but will be decrease between 2025 and 2030 thanks to battery chemistry improvement. It should increase again after 2030 due to higher electrified cars volumes Global reserves (7,000,000t) are sufficient for 2030 but over 50% of the production is located in unstable countries (Congo) Cobalt is 100% recyclable in end of life Li-Ion batteries but the network is not existing today Current market Market outlook(2030)* Estimated reserves(k tons) Carbides Other chemicals Magnet Super alloys 9% 9% Source: CRU & Cobalt Blue Holdings HS steel HS steel Magnet 5% 3% Carbides Other chemicals 2% 3% 5% 5% 17% 53% Batteries Super alloys 10% *: Non automotive consumptionconsidered as unchanged 72% Batteries Congo (Kinshasa) Australia Other countries Cuba Philippines Zambia Russia Canada Madagascar Papua New Guinea South Africa USA World Materials Forum June

17 Fuel cells Platinum consumption will not jeopardize the production Electrification market(millions) Platinum consumption(tons) Higher consumption but full recyclability BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell PHEV FHEV Mild hybrid 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20, FCEV catalysis Diesel catalysis The lowering Diesel volumes will not balance the rising material needs for catalysis in Fuel Cells At the opposite of Diesel Catalysis, Platinum used in Fuel Cell is 99 % recyclable. 25 % of current WW Platinum consumption is coming from recycling. Around 30g of platinum for 100kW fuel cell in Current Platinum consumption (227t among which 68,4 for automotive catalysis) versus reserves (70,000t) is not critical today and shouldn t be beyond 2030 Current market Market outlook(2030)* Estimated reserves(tons) Glass Medical & bio-medical 2% Investment 3% 3% Other 5% Chemicals 8% 44% Automotive (catalyst & non-road) Medical & bio-medical Other 3% 5% Chemicals 7% 48% Automotive (catalyst & non-road) South Africa Russia Zimbabwe Jewelry 32% Jewelry 29% United States Canada Source: World Platinum Investment Holding *: Non automotive consumptionconsidered as unchanged World Materials Forum June

18 Batteries 65bn private investments for production will be necessary by 2030 Electrified market in million vehicles BEV 500 km 12 BEV 300 km 10 Fuel cell Around 800GWh of batteries will be necessary to power electrified vehicles in 2030 which means around 65bn investment Tesla and Panasonic are currently investing more than $4bn to power 500,000 vehicles/year of 100kWh energy High technology disruption risk of the battery chemistry CapExper million vehicles : 4.5bn for BEV with mid range autonomy World Materials Forum June

19 Fuel Cell Carbon fiber production will double to feed hydrogen tanks in 2030 Electrified market in million vehicles 16 High pressure tanks (700 bars) are necessary to store hydrogen in the cars BEV 500 km BEV 300 km Fuel cell Carbon fiber will be used to reduce the weight If we consider 2% of the total car production dedicated to Fuel Cell in 2030 (around 2.2 million vehicles) 88,000t of carbon fiber will be necessary to produce hydrogen tanks meaning to double the current production CapEx per million vehicles : 1.15bn World Materials Forum June

20 Plugs for electric and plug-in vehicles 25bn of public infrastructures (plugs) investments by Cumulated investments in bn Close to 25bn investments by 2030 including cost decrease over time by around 50% Fast charging stations>22kw represents 5% in volume Occupation rate assumption: 15% for slow charging and 30% for fast charging Around 6.5 million charging points by % in Europe 35% in China 20% in US CapExper million vehicles : 0.9bn BEV vehicle park World Materials Forum June

21 Fuel Cell Hydrogen stations will require 17bn investment by 2030 Fuel cell vehicle park should be around 3 million by 2030 Each vehicle will do 20,000 km/year and consume 1kg H2/100km 600,000t of hydrogen 11,000 autonomous and green hydrogen stations able to deliver 200 kg of hydrogen (used at 75% of their capacity) will have to be built and will cost each around 1.5m, so in total 17bn investment CapExper million vehicles on the park : 5.5bn World Materials Forum June