ELANDSFONTEIN PHOSPHATE MINE

Transcription

1 ELANDSFONTEIN PHOSPHATE MINE TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT 30 JULY 2014 Prepared for: Michelle Schroder Elandsfontein Exploration and Mining (Pty) Ltd Tygerberg Office Park Uys Krige Drive Plattekloof Cape Town Tel: Prepared by: Roy Bowman Royal HaskoningDHV (Pty) Ltd Tygerberg Office Park Uys Krige Drive Plattekloof Cape Town Tel:

2 Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_ ii

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION TRAFFIC THAT WILL BE GENERATED BY THE MINE Project timeline Construction Phase Operations Phase FUTURE TRAFFIC ACCESS PROPOSALS SIGHT DISTANCE IMPACT IDENTIFICATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT Impact on road sections Impact on intersections Impact on road infrastructure due to heavy vehicles Impact on traffic safety IMPACT ASSESSMENT RATING MITIGATION MEASURES Recommended Mitigation Measures Traffic conditions (road capacity and intersections) Road infrastructure (heavy vehicle impact) Traffic Safety Impact assessment after implementation of mitigation measures CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...19 Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_ iii

4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Locality Plan - Elandstontein Phosphate Mine Figure 2: Alternative route selection from Mine to Saldahna Bay harbour Figure 3: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) during construction at the proposed access Figure 4: AM and PM traffic volumes (2024) during construction at the proposed access Figure 5: Elandsfontein Mine access road Figure 6: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) TR21/2 and MR233 intersection Figure 7: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) during construction TR21/2 and MR233 intersection Figure 8: AM and PM traffic volumes (2024) during operations TR21/2 and MR233 intersection LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1: Daily vehicle trips during the mine peak construction phase (3 months)... 3 Table 3-2: Estimated daily and peak hour vehicle trips to/from the mine during the ship loading operations... 5 Table 3-3: Advantages and disadvantages of using the alternative routes to haul material from the mine to the harbour... 6 Table 8-1: V/C ratios during construction and operation phases of the mine Table 8-2: Traffic volume diagrams Table 8-3: Weekday AM and PM peak hour intersection levels of service (LOS) and average vehicle delay Table 8-4: Truck traffic on the TR21/2 during the construction phase of the mine Table 8-5: Cumulative truck traffic on the TR21/2 during the operation of the mine Table 9-1: Description of impact assessment rating methodology Table 9-2: Summary of impact assessment without mitigation measures LIST OF ANNEXURES Annexure A: SIDRA analysis outputs Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_ iv

5 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ELANDSFONTEIN PHOSPHATE MINE NEAR HOPEFIELD, WESTERN CAPE 1 INTRODUCTION Royal HaskoningDHV (Pty) Ltd was appointed by Elandsfontein Exploration and Mining (Pty) Ltd (EMM) to prepare a Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) for the proposed development of a new phosphate mine near Hopefield. The TIA will be integrated into the Environmental Management Programme Report (EMPR). The mine will be on the farm Elandsfontein 349, about 7 km south of Trunk Road TR21/2 (route R45), approximately 8 km to the west of Hopefield and 10 km to the east of Langebaan Airforce Base. The locality of the site is shown on a Google Maps image in Figure 1. The final concentrate of the mined phosphate will be loaded into containers and onto 22m long inter-link trucks and taken to Saldanha Bay harbour on public roads for export. This TIA addresses the road traffic implications associated with the construction and normal daily operation of the mine. 2 ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION TR21/2 runs in an east-west direction north of the mine site, linking National Route N7 in the east to the town of Vredenburg in the west. The Western Cape Department of Transport and Public Works (DTPW) which is planning road network improvements to support development in the Saldanha Municipal Area is proposing that TR21/2 and TR85/1 become a designated freight route which will run from Saldanha Bay to the N7 north of Malmesbury and eventually to the N1 near Paarl. As a first step towards implementing the freight route, DTPW plans to extend TR85/1 eastwards from TR77/1 to connect with TR21/2 south of the Langebaan Airforce Base, as shown by the dotted line in Figure 1. TR21/2 is a surfaced single carriageway road and is classified as a minor arterial road in terms of the DTPW s Road Network Information System (RNIS). In the vicinity of the proposed access to the mine, TR21/2 has a surfaced width of 12.2m, with two 3.7m traffic lanes and 2.4m surfaced shoulders on each side of the road. A speed limit of 100km/h is applicable on this section of TR21/2, which is a determinant for the shoulder sight distance required at the proposed mine access road intersection. This is discussed later in this report. The existing access road to the mine site is currently an informal sand track. Royal HaskoningDHV (Pty) Ltd has been appointed by Elandsfontein Exploration and Mining (Pty) Ltd to upgrade this road to accommodate the traffic for the construction and operation of the mine. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

6 3 TRAFFIC THAT WILL BE GENERATED BY THE MINE 3.1 Project timeline The EMM planning indicates that the mine will be constructed over a 12 month period, commencing as soon as the EMPR has been approved, probably towards the end of The project will result in traffic impacts that will arise from construction activities at the mine during 2015 and from operations activities for at least 10 years thereafter. 3.2 Construction Phase During the construction phase, traffic impacts will arise from the transportation of personnel, construction materials and equipment. The calculation of the expected traffic volumes from the anticipated construction activities is based on various assumptions and the information supplied by EMM, as discussed below. Construction personnel The following assumptions have been made with regard to construction personnel transport: The contractors will work between the hours of 07h00 and 17h00 Monday to Friday; It is anticipated that there will be 10 LDVs used by the managers and supervisors throughout the day and 10 minibuses and 2 buses transporting staff in the morning and evening; Approximately 15% of the workforce will be managers and supervisors and will travel to the site from the Saldanha direction on TR21/2; Approximately 85% of the workforce will be construction staff and will travel to the site from Hopefield in the morning on TR21/2 in contracted buses and minibuses. These vehicles will leave the site after dropping off workers in the morning and return in the evening to take the staff back to Hopefield. Construction materials and equipment It is assumed that material delivery to the mine site will take place Monday to Friday between 07h00 and 17h00. It is estimated that the bulk earthworks phase of the project will occur during the first 3 months of the project and that the approximate quantity of material that will be hauled during the terracing and road construction stage is 60,000m 3. This translates to 3 loaded inbound truck trips per hour for 10 hours per day for the first three months. For the remaining construction period, the frequency of trucks to the mine site will reduce to 6 inbound trucks per day. These vehicles will initially transport structural steel, platework and mechanical equipment. Thereafter, piping and electrical equipment will be delivered. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

7 The bulk earthworks stage of the project is not likely to overlap with later stages of the project and will not result in cumulative truck traffic to and from the mine site. The peak period in terms of traffic will be during the first 3 months of construction when there will be a cumulative traffic impact resulting from the bulk earthworks and daily personnel trips. It is estimated there will be a total of 128 daily vehicle trips to/from the site (entering and exiting) during the first 3 months of the construction phase, as shown in Table 3-1. Table 3-1: Daily vehicle trips during the mine peak construction phase (3 months) Trip purpose Vehicle Vehicles per day Peak period Type In Out Managers/ LDV* 06h30 07h30 10 Supervisors 16h30 17h30 10 Semi-skilled Mini-bus 06h30 07h staff 16h30 17h Labourers Bus 06h30 07h Construction phase Total trips 16h30 17h Material Trucks 07h00 17h00 30** 30** Total (per day) AM Peak hour PM Peak hour * LDV Light Delivery Vehicle ** This is based on 3 inbound loaded trips and 3 empty outbound trips per hour for 10 hours The peak traffic periods for the construction of the mine will be in the weekday morning (06h30-07h30) and weekday afternoon (16h30-17h30) and will coincide with the existing peak hour traffic on TR21/2 which was determined from traffic counts obtained from AECOM who has recently done a traffic study for DTPW for the planned link road between TR21/2 and TR85/1. As indicated in the table above, a total of 40 vehicle trips will be added to the road network in the morning and evening peak hours. In the AM peak hour there will be 25 inbound trips and 15 outbound trips. This will be repeated in the opposite direction of travel in the evening peak hour. 3.3 Operations Phase During the operations phase, starting after construction is completed at the end of 2015, traffic impacts will arise from the daily transportation of personnel between their places of residence and the site, the transport of the mined phosphate to Saldahna Bay harbour for export, and deliveries of consumables and maintenance parts to the mine. The calculation of the traffic expected to be generated daily by these operations is discussed below. The mine will operated continuously seven days a week, with 3 shifts per day. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

8 Operations personnel The following assumptions have been made based on information provided by EMM: There will be 36 cars/suvs arriving and departing from the mine each weekday morning and afternoon peak hour, used by management, skilled and administrative staff and it is assumed that they will travel from Saldanha/Langebaan/Vredenburg on TR21/2; Operations staff will be transported by 10 minibuses each day, and it is assumed that they will travel from the Hopefield area; The day shift will start at 07h00 and end at 15h00, the afternoon/evening shift will be from 15h00 to 23h00 and the night shift will be from 23h00 to 07h00; Minibuses will off-load staff to start a shift and will wait and load up with staff that are ending a shift before travelling back to Hopefield. Operations traffic It is estimated that there will be 4 bulk tankers delivering consumables to the mine each weekday and 4 trucks bringing in solid reagents, maintenance materials and parts each weekday. It is assumed that these tankers and trucks will travel to the site along TR21/2 from the east (N7) and return in that direction after delivering to the mine. It is estimated that management and skilled staff will generate 36 inbound car/suv vehicle trips inbound in the morning (06h30 07h30) and the same number of trips outbound in the afternoon (15h00 16h00) per weekday. Operations staff will be transported in and out at each shift change in 10 minibuses. The ship that exports the mined phosphate will dock at Saldanha Harbour for 4 days (every 18 days). During this 4 day period, a fleet of trucks will haul phosphate from the mine to the harbour at a rate of 8 trucks per hour, day and night. The trucks that will be used to haul the material from the mine to the ship are standard interlink truck-trailers which are 22,0 m in length and will have a loaded weight of 48 tonnes carried in two containers. The total daily and peak hour vehicles during the ship loading phase is shown in Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

9 Table 3-2. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

10 Table 3-2: Estimated daily and peak hour vehicle trips to/from the mine during the ship loading operations Trip purpose Vehicle Vehicles per day Total Duration Type In Out Managers/ Cars/SUVs 06h30 07h Administrative Staff 15h00 16h Day shift staff Minibuses 06h30 07h Operations Phase 15h00 16h Afternoon shift Minibuses 14h30 15h staff Night shift staff Minibuses 22h30 23h Consumables Tankers & 08h00 15h & maintenance trucks materials/parts Hauling mined Trucks 24 hours 192* 192* 384 material Total vehicle trips (per day) AM Peak Hour (06h30 07h30) PM Peak Hour (15h00 16h00) * This is based on 8 loaded trips and 8 return empty trips per hour for 95 hours continuously The peak traffic periods during the operation of the mine will be in the weekday morning (06h30-07h30) and weekday afternoon (15h00-16h00) when a total of 72 vehicles will be added to the roads in these hours, which are similar to the existing peak hour traffic periods observed from recent vehicle counts on the TR21/2 near Langebaan Airforce Base, namely 06h45 to 07h45 and 15h45 to 16h45. There are currently three alternative routes that could be used by trucks to transport the mined phosphate to Saldanha Bay harbour, until such time as the DTPW s planned link road between TR21/2 and TR85/1 is constructed, which will provide a more direct route than the existing three alternative routes which are shown in Figure 2. These alternative routes were each inspected to determine their suitability for use by 22m long interlink truck-trailers carrying a load of 48 tonnes. The travel distance along each route and the advantages and disadvantages of their use as a haul route, until such time as the new freight road link is constructed between TR21/2 and TR85/1, is summarised in Table 3-3. Our conclusion from the evaluation of these alternative routes is that Route B is the preferred route, but that it requires a left-turn deceleration lane on TR21/1 at the OP07643 intersection and the reduction of the speed limit on TR85/1 westbound from 120km/hr to 100km/hr from the rail bridge to the OP07643 intersection where the shoulder sight distance from OP07643 to the crest of the rail bridge is insufficient for trucks. Also, the haul road south from TR85/1 to OP07645 requires improvement to accommodate 22m interlink trucks. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

11 Table 3-3: Advantages and disadvantages of using the alternative routes to haul material from the mine to the harbour Route A Roads used TR21/2, MR233, MR559, OP07645 Total length (km) 37,0 Advantages Disadvantages Least existing traffic volume Road widening required at the TR21/MR233 intersection to enable of the 3 alternatives separate left-turn and right-turn deceleration lanes on the approaches to the intersection Longest route of the 3 alternatives Crossing of TR77/1 which is a tourist route Widening and surfacing required on the off-ramp from MR559 to OP07645 The section of road on the MR559 in the vicinity of the Curro School is considered to be a high accident zone. Route B Roads used TR21/2, OP07643, Haul Road, OP07645 Total length (km) 32,5 Advantages Disadvantages Shortest route length of the Highest existing traffic volume of the 3 alternatives 3 alternatives Road widening required at the TR21/OP07643 intersection to provide a left-turn deceleration lane on the approach on TR21/2 Required shoulder sight distance from OP07643 eastwards on TR85/1 to rail bridge is not achieved for 120km/hr speed limit. It is recommended that the speed limit on TR85/1 be reduced from rail bridge to OP07643 to 100km/hr to meet the minimum SSD. Haul road south of TR85/1 in the vicinity of the adjacent rail bridge is currently not suitable to accommodate the 22m interlink trucks. Route C Roads used TR21/2, MR233, TR77/1, TR85/1, Haul Road, OP07645 Total length (km) 34,0 Advantages Disadvantages Shorter than Route A TR77/1 is a popular tourist route and the trucks would be travelling on the section of the route between MR233 and TR85/1 for a distance of 5,6 km which has a speed limit of 120km/h. The slow moving heavy trucks would inconvenience tourist traffic and can be regarded as increasing the accident potential due to more overtaking attempts. The activities at the weigh bridge located on the southern side of the TR85/1 west of the TR77/1 intersection will increase the travel time of trucks that are required to stop here. Minimum shoulder sight distance on the haul road for returning trucks to turn onto TR85/1 in the easterly direction is not achieved for 120km/hr speed limit. It is recommended that the speed limit on TR85/1 in the westbound direction be reduced to 100km/hr from the rail bridge to the OP07643/Haul Road junction to meet the minimum SSD. The Haul Road south of TR85/1 in the vicinity of the rail bridge is currently not suitable to accommodate the 22m interlink trucks. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

12 4 FUTURE TRAFFIC Future traffic projections on TR21/2 and TR85/1 were obtained from AECOM who has undertaken the planning and traffic modelling on the roads in the Langebaan/Saldahna/Vredenburg area for the Western Cape Department of Transport and Public Works as part of the investigation for the proposed freight route linking TR21/2 and TR85/1. The peak hour traffic which is expected to be generated during the construction phase of the mine was added to the year 2015 traffic growth projection calculated from the traffic data obtained from AECOM. The results of adding the peak hour construction traffic to the 2015 other traffic on TR21/2 at the proposed mine access road intersection is shown in Figure 3. In order to assess the impact of the operation of the mine on the roads in the future, the 10 year traffic forecast from AECOM s traffic model was used. The impact of the additional peak hour traffic at the proposed mine access road intersection on TR21/2 during ship loading operations in the year 2024 is shown in Figure 4. 5 ACCESS PROPOSALS The mine site currently has no formal access road from TR21/2, only an informal farm track. A nine km long access road is proposed to connect the mine to TR21/2. The access road and intersection on TR21/2 needs to be designed for 30 heavy vehicles per direction per day turning in and out of the access for the first 3 months of the construction period and 10 heavy vehicles per direction per day during the remaining 9 months of construction. There will also be additional light vehicles turning in and out of the access during the morning and afternoon peak hours, as shown in Figure 3. During the mine operation period there will be 56 light vehicles using the access every morning and afternoon during the peak hour, plus 192 trucks per direction per day for 4 days every 3 weeks when a ship docks at Saldahna Bay to load the mined product. To ensure safe traffic operations at the proposed mine access road intersection, it is recommended that TR21/2 be widened to enable separate left-turn and right-turn deceleration lanes to be provided on the approaches to the intersection, in order to mitigate the safety implications of heavy vehicles slowing on TR21/2 to turn into the access. The proposed geometric layout for the mine access road intersection is shown in Figure 5. 6 SIGHT DISTANCE Investigations to measure the shoulder sight distance on TR21/2 were undertaken at the proposed location of the access road to the mine. The Guidelines for the Geometric Design of Rural Roads (TRH 17, 1988), recommends a minimum shoulder sight distance (SSD) of 420m for stop controlled accesses on rural arterial roads which have a 100km/h speed limit, as is the case for TR21/2. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

13 The sight distances observed in the westerly and easterly directions are currently limited to approximately 200m and 300m respectively, because of long grass and bushes growing along the verge between the road edge and the fence line. The horizontal and vertical alignment of TR21/2 in the vicinity if the proposed access is fairly straight and flat, and the required sight distances can be achieved if the long grass and bushes growing along the road verge are cleared. This was evident from the site investigation and can be seen in the photos below, which were taken from the position where a vehicle would be stopped on the proposed access road and looking in each direction to see if there are oncoming vehicles and whether it is safe to turn onto TR21/2. SSD at proposed access on TR21/2 in the easterly direction. SSD at proposed access on TR21/2 in the westerly direction. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

14 7 IMPACT IDENTIFICATION The following traffic impacts have been identified as a result of the construction and operations activities at the proposed Elandsfontein mine. An increase in traffic volumes along TR21/2 and TR85/1 which will affect road traffic capacity and intersection performance. An increase in the number of heavy vehicles which will affect the structural capacity of the road pavement. An increase in traffic volumes may lead to an increase in road accident rates and impact on road safety. 8 IMPACT ASSESSMENT 8.1 Impact on road sections It should be noted that the peak hour referred to under this section is the weekday AM peak hour unless otherwise stated. The road that will be most affected by the Elandsfontein mine development is TR21/2, on which traffic volumes are currently low. The impact of the traffic that will be generated by the Elandsfontein mine on the existing road capacity is assessed by determining how much of the capacity will be utilized when the development traffic is added to the road network. The utilization of capacity is referred to as the Volume to Capacity ratio or V/C. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM, 2010) provides maximum lane capacity values which are usually adjusted and reduced to take into account various operating conditions on the roads. For rural roads such as TR21/2 and TR85/1 which have surfaced shoulders and operate in relatively flat terrain, the HCM indicates that a capacity of 1700 vehicles per lane per hour can be assumed. The V/C ratio is shown in Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

15 Table 8-1 for both the construction and operations phases of the Elandsfontein mine. The V/C ratios include escalated background traffic (existing volume + 4% per annum growth) and mine generated traffic for the construction and operation phases, respectively. It should be noted that the V/C ratio is calculated for the direction of travel that will result in the highest volume of traffic as this represents a worst case scenario (i.e. higher volumes will use more of the road traffic capacity). For example, during the construction phase the volume of traffic on the TR21/2 in the vicinity of the development is 95 vehicles eastbound and 158 vehicles westbound. The highest volume of traffic on this road section is 158 vehicles which is the volume used to determine the V/C ratio in the Table 8-1. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

16 Table 8-1: V/C ratios during construction and operation phases of the mine Road Name Lanes (per direction) Existing Road Capacity (per direction)** V/C*** During 2015 (Construction) V/C*** During 2016 (Operation) TR21/ ,093 0,108 ** The capacity used is based on the existing road width as it is unlikely that road widening will be undertaken in the next few years as this will not be warranted until the traffic volumes exceeds vehicles per hour per direction. *** The traffic volumes used to determine the V/C ratios includes existing traffic escalated at a rate of 4% per annum and Elandsfontein mine generated traffic. Construction It is estimated that the Elandsfontein mine development will add 40 vehicle trips to the adjacent road network during the weekday AM peak hour as a result of construction activities, with 25 vehicle trips entering the site and 15 vehicles trips exiting the site. The V/C ratio on TR21/2 indicates that 9,3% of the available road traffic capacity will be utilized during the construction phase. This is referred to as Level of Service A in the HCM and is characterised by free-flowing road operations. The significance of this negative impact on the road capacity is regarded as low for the construction phase. Operation It is estimated that the Elandsfontein mine operation will add 72 vehicle trips to the adjacent road network during the weekday PM peak hour, with 54 vehicle trips entering the site and 18 vehicles trips exiting the site. The V/C ratio on the TR21/2 indicates that 10,8% of the available road capacity will be utilised during the operations phase, which is within Level of Service A. The significance of this negative impact on the road capacity is regarded as low for the operations phase. 8.2 Impact on intersections Apart from a single road section, the intersection of two or more roads can also experience capacity problems. The TR21/2 and MR233 intersection, which currently operates as a stopcontrolled intersection with priority for traffic on TR21/2, is located approximately 12,5 km to the west of the proposed access to the mine, as shown in Figure 2. This intersection will be affected by the traffic resulting from the construction and operation of the mine. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

17 The peak hour traffic that will be generated during the construction and operation of the mine has been added to the current traffic volumes at this intersection in order to assess how the performance of this intersection is affected. Intersection Level of Service (LOS) and average vehicle delay (seconds) are the criteria used to assess intersection performance. Intersection performance is affected by the type of control used (stop, signal or circle), the volume of vehicles passing through the intersection and the turning movements. The traffic forecasting stages are shown on separate volume diagrams as listed in Table 8-2 below. These Figures are contained at the end of this report. Table 8-2: Traffic volume diagrams FIGURE No. DESCRIPTION 5 Existing Traffic (2015) 6 7 Combined Future Traffic 2024 during construction (Existing + 4% p.a. +development) Combined Future Traffic 2024 during operation (Existing + 4% p.a. +development) An operational analysis was undertaken with the SIDRA computer software package for the existing (2015) and future (2024) weekday morning and afternoon peak hour periods during the construction and operation of the mine in order to determine changes to the LOS and average vehicle delay, if any, at the intersections. The generated trips to and from the mine have been distributed at the intersection as follows: it is assumed that approximately 50% of the generated trips will travel from / to the east along TR21/2 and 50% of the generated trips will travel from / to the south along MR233. The detailed output from the SIDRA analysis is contained in Annexure A to this TIA. A summary of the Level of Service (LOS) and average vehicle delay is shown in Table 8-3 below. Table 8-3: Weekday AM and PM peak hour intersection levels of service (LOS) and average vehicle delay TR21/2 and MR233 (Stop-controlled intersection) Weekday AM Peak Weekday PM Peak LOS Delay (sec) LOS Delay (sec) Existing (2015) A 3.6 A 3.8 Future Combined Traffic(2024) (With Development) during construction Future Combined Traffic(2024) (With Development) during operations A 3.6 A 3.8 A 3.9 A 4.0 Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

18 Construction There will be an increase in peak hour traffic through the intersection from 355 vph before construction to 365 vph in 2015 during the construction period in the AM peak hour and from 352 vph to 362 vph during the PM peak hour. This is a 2.8% increase in both the AM and PM peak hour traffic volume. The impact of the construction traffic on the LOS and average vehicle delay of this intersection is considered to be small. The significance of this negative impact on the intersection LOS and average vehicle delay is regarded as low for the construction phase. Operation During the AM peak hour in the operations phase, approximately 44 vehicles will travel to the mine and 8 vehicles will travel from the mine via TR21/2 and MR233, and vice versa during the PM peak hour. There will be an increase in peak hour traffic through the intersection from 355 vph in 2015 before construction to 550 vph in 2024 during the operations period in the AM peak hour and from 352 vph to 544 vph during the PM peak hour. This is a 54% increase in both the AM and PM peak hour traffic volume. The increase will however result in a minimal increase in average delay to vehicles because of the low traffic volumes currently passing through this intersection. The significance of this negative impact on the intersection LOS and average vehicle delay is regarded as low for the operations phase. 8.3 Impact on road infrastructure due to heavy vehicles Compared to heavy vehicle traffic, light vehicles have a negligible impact on the structural capacity of a road pavement; thus only heavy vehicles have been considered in this part of the impact assessment. In order to assess the impact of heavy vehicles on the road pavement, the current truck traffic on the TR21/2 in the vicinity of the site has first been established to determine the cumulative daily truck volumes on the TR21/2 without the mine development traffic and compare it with the volume of trucks that will result from activities during the construction and operation of the mine. Traffic data for the year 2013 has been obtained from the Provincial Government of the Western Cape for counting station number located at km on the TR21/2, in the vicinity of the Langebaan Road intersection, which indicates the following statistics: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) = 2935 vehicles (both directions), Average Daily Truck Traffic (ADTT) = 232 (both directions), 50:50 directional split on the TR21/2 for ADT and ADTT. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

19 It is assumed that the traffic on the TR21/2 will increase at a rate of 4% per annum which is the average growth rate observed on TR21/2 for the past 10 years. This growth rate has been applied to the current ADTT on the TR21/2 in order to determine the cumulative truck traffic over a 20 year period without the proposed mine. A period of 20 years is the normal expected structural life of a tarred road like the TR21/2. Construction Activities associated with the mine construction phase will result in 60 truck trips per weekday for the first three months of construction and 12 truck trips per weekday for the remaining nine months of the construction period. The cumulative volume of trucks that can be expected on the TR21/2 in one year without the Elandsfontein mine development and the total volume of trucks that will be generated by the mine development during the construction phase are shown in the table below. Table 8-4: Truck traffic on the TR21/2 during the construction phase of the mine Without Elandsfontein mine development (per direction) Scenario Cumulative Trucks Trucks per annum per day (365 days) Elandsfontein development (per direction) Trucks per annum (247 work days) Existing + 4% p.a Phase 1 construction (3 months) Phase 2 construction (9 months) The construction phase of 12 months is relatively short when compared to the structural lifetime of a pavement which is usually about 20 years. The construction phase will result in a 7,5% increase in cumulative heavy traffic on the TR21/2 during The significance of this negative impact on the road infrastructure is regarded as low for the construction phase. Operations Heavy vehicle traffic associated with the mine operations activities will result from the delivery of solid reagents, maintenance and parts to the site that will travel from the N7 in the east and the delivery of the mined phosphate to the port in Saldanha in the west. The TR21/2 in the westerly direction between the mine and the harbour will be worst affected when the phosphate transport results in an additional 192 trucks daily for four consecutive days every 18 days. This is a total of loaded truck trips per annum to the harbour. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

20 The cumulative volume of trucks that can be expected on the TR21/2 (westbound carriageway) without the Elandsfontein mine and the total volume of trucks that will be generated by the mining operations travelling to the harbour over a 20 year period are shown in Table 8-5. Table 8-5: Cumulative truck traffic on the TR21/2 during the operation of the mine Scenario Existing + 4% p.a. Without Elandsfontein development (per direction) Trucks per day Cumulative Trucks over 20 years Elandsfontein development* (per direction) Cumulative trucks over 20 yrs Operations (4 days every 18 days) The truck trips from the mine to the harbour carrying phosphate amounts to trips over a period of 20 years, which will increase the cumulative truck traffic on the road by 22,7%. The significance of this negative impact on the road infrastructure is regarded as medium for the operations phase. 8.4 Impact on traffic safety The anticipated construction and operations activities for the proposed Elandsfontein development will result in an increase in traffic on the road network leading to a potential increase in the number of road accidents. Information regarding road accident rates has been obtained from the Arrive Alive website, which indicates that for the year 2002 there were 8,71 fatal road accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometers travelled in South Africa. Although the information is outdated (more recent information is not available) it can give an indication of the number of fatal road accidents that can be anticipated due to the construction and operations activities of the development. The potential increase in the number of road accidents has been quantified based on the additional vehicles kilometers that will be travelled on the road network by traffic associated with the proposed development. It must be noted that many factors increase the risk of road traffic accidents for example trucks not being maintained or not in a roadworthy condition and dangerous driving habits. Construction The vehicle kilometers travelled (travel distances) during the construction phase is made up by the transportation of the earthworks during the first three months of construction and steel, plated and mechanical equipment during the remaining construction period (Saldanha and Langebaan area); as well as the transportation of the personnel (Hopefield and Saldanha Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

21 area). At this point in time the location of the borrow pit site has not been confirmed. The calculations below have therefore been based on the distance to the largest commercial quarry in the area which is Lafarge located 35 km from the proposed access the mine site. Assuming average travel distances for each trip type it is estimated that the construction activities, which will occur over a 12 month period, will result in approximately 224,270 additional vehicle kilometers travelled on the road network during the first three months of construction and 360,724 during the remaining nine months of the construction period. Based on the statistic of 8,71 fatal accidents per 100 million kilometers travelled, there is a potential for the transport related construction activities to result in 0,05 road accident fatalities during the 12 month construction period. The significance of this negative impact on road safety is regarded as low for the construction phase. Operations The vehicle kilometers travelled during the operations phase is made up by the transportation of the phosphate (between the site and Saldanha Port), consumables and maintenance materials and/or parts (from direction of the N7); as well as the transportation of the operations personnel (Hopefield and Saldanha area). Assuming average travel distances for each trip type it is estimated that the operations activities will result in approximately 1,966,120 additional vehicle kilometers travelled on the road network per annum. Based on the statistic of 8.71 fatal accidents per 100 million kilometers travelled, there is a potential for the transport related operations activities to result in 0.2 road accident fatalities per annum. The significance of this negative impact on road safety is regarded as low for the operations phase. 9 IMPACT ASSESSMENT RATING The identified impacts have been assessed according to the categories as explained in Table 9-1. The identified impacts have been summarised and rated without the implementation of mitigation measures in Table 9-2. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

22 Table 9-1: Description of impact assessment rating methodology Category Description Assessment Rating Scale Status The impact is either categorised as having a benefit, cost or neutral affect. Positive (benefit) Neutral Negative (cost) Extent The extent of the area which will be impacted. Local (within 30km) Regional (Western Cape) National (South Africa) Duration Lifetime of impact, i.e. how long the impact will last should it occur. Short term ( 1-5 years) Medium (5-10 years) Long term (> 10 years but impacts cease if facility stops operating). Intensity This indicates the magnitude of the impact in relation to the sensitivity of the receiving environment, i.e. the degree to which the environment will be altered. Low Moderate Severe Probability The probability indicates the likelihood that an event will result in the identified impact occurring. Improbable Possible <40% chance of occurring 40% 70% chance of occurring Probable >70% 90% chance of occurring Definite >90% chance of occurring Significance Overall indication of the affect of the potential impact. Low, impact will not have an influence on the decision or require significant modification to be accommodated. Medium, impact will influence the environment which can function in modified manner. High, significant impact on the environment requiring significant modification. Severe, no-go implication for the development regardless of mitigation. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

23 Table 9-2: Summary of impact assessment without mitigation measures No. Description of Impact Status Extent Duration Intensity Probability Reduction in road based Level of Service due to increased traffic volumes associated with the transportation of personnel and construction materials to the site. Reduction in road based Level of Service due to increased traffic volumes associated with the transportation of personnel to the site during the operations phases. Reduction in road based Level of Service due to increased traffic volumes associated with the transportation of material for production and distribution of product during the operations phase. Accelerated degradation of road pavement structure due to the increase in heavy vehicle traffic during the construction phase. Accelerated degradation of road pavement structure due to the increase in heavy vehicle traffic during the operations phase. Potential for an increase in number of road accidents as a result of increased traffic volumes and km travelled on road network during the construction phase. Potential for an increase in number of road accidents as a result of increased traffic volumes and km travelled on road network during the operation phase. Significance (without mitigation) Negative Local Short Term Low Probable Low Negative Local Long Term Low Probable Low Negative Local Long Term Low Probable Low Negative Local Short Term Low Probable Low Negative Local Long Term Moderate Probable Medium Negative Local Short Term Low Possible Low Negative Local Long Term Low Possible Low 10 MITIGATION MEASURES 10.1 Recommended Mitigation Measures The following mitigation measures have been identified in order to minimize the impacts that will arise from the construction and operation activities of the Elandsfontein development. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

24 Traffic conditions (road capacity and intersections) In order to minimize the impact of the additional traffic that will be added to the road network due to the construction and operations activities of the proposed Elandsfontein development, the following mitigation measures are recommended. Construction materials During the construction phase deliveries of material by truck to the site could be scheduled to avoid peak hour traffic. The weekday AM (06h30 07h30) and PM (16h30 17h30) peak hours will be the two busiest periods on the road with the highest traffic volumes. Heavy vehicle arrivals and departures will have less of an impact if occurring outside of the aforementioned time periods. Operations materials During the operations phase material deliveries to the site (solid reagents, maintenance and parts) and phosphate transport to Saldanha could also be scheduled to avoid peak hour traffic, as discussed under construction materials above Road infrastructure (heavy vehicle impact) The construction phase will result in minimal impact due to the low volumes of heavy vehicle traffic especially considering that the 12 months construction phase is relatively short when compared to the structural lifetime of a road pavement. The operations phase will result in moderate heavy vehicle traffic volumes. In order to mitigate the effect of heavy vehicles on the roads within the study area it is essential that roads are properly and regularly maintained (by the relevant authorities) and that heavy vehicle overloading is curbed by traffic enforcement officials. Traffic enforcement officials should monitor overloading of heavy vehicles to limit the impact on the structural integrity of the roads surrounding the site. The existing weighbridge that is located on TR85/1 can be used to inspect vehicles for overloading Traffic Safety The anticipated construction and operations activities for the proposed Elandsfontein development will result in an increase in traffic on the road network and vehicle kilometres travelled, which means that there is a potential for an increase in the number of road accidents. It is important to note that various factors influence the risk of road accidents for example vehicles (especially trucks) not being maintained to a roadworthy condition and dangerous driving habits. To limit the potential for accidents competent trained drivers must operate well maintained vehicles. Visible law enforcement should be present with traffic officers regularly conducting random inspections of vehicles for roadworthy conditions and drivers for the correct driving licenses and permits. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

25 10.2 Impact assessment after implementation of mitigation measures The significance of the majority of the impacts that will occur during the construction and operation phases of the development is regarded as low without mitigation. The majority of impacts will remain low even with the implementation of the recommended mitigation measures. This can be explained due to the significance of most of the impacts being rated as low, i.e. with the mitigation in place the impact is reduced and not removed. 11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The conclusions and recommendations of this study of the likely traffic impacts of the construction and operation of the Elandsfontein mine are summarised as follows: 1. The traffic volumes that will be generated during the construction and operation of the mine indicates that widening of TR21/2 at the location of the proposed site access road intersection is required to mitigate the potential for rear-end collisions between traffic travelling at 100km/hour and vehicles that are decelerating on TR21/2 to turn into the mine access road. The proposed geometric layout for this intersection is shown in Figure When the proposed mine road access intersection on TR21/2 is constructed, the bushes and long grass between the TR21/2 road edge and the fence line must be removed in order to achieve the required shoulder sight distance in both directions from the access road stop line. 3. Traffic signs must be erected on TR21/1 on both approaches to the intersection to indicate the presence of a new road junction and to inform drivers that there will be trucks turning frequently at the intersection. The sizes and distances for installation of the required signs are specified in the SADC Road Traffic Signs Manual. 4. It is recommended that the Elandsfontein Exploration and Mining (Pty) enter into consultation with the Provincial Department of Transport and Public Works to discuss the use of the preferred route shown on Figure 2 (via TR21/2, OP07643, crossing TR85/1 at grade to a haul road leading to OP07645 into Saldahna Bay Harbour) for transporting mined phosphate from the mine to the harbour. This route will require a left turn deceleration lane on TR21/1 at the OP07645 intersection and the reduction of the speed limit on TR85/1 westbound between the rail bridge and the OP07643 intersection. 5. It is also recommended that the Elandsfontein Exploration and Mining (Pty) enter into consultation with Saldanha Steel, Namaqua Sands and Saldanha Harbour, who jointly maintains the haul road south from TR85/1 to the harbour, to discuss proposed usage of the haul road. 6. The significance of the majority of the impacts for both the construction and operation activities of the facility is regarded as low without mitigation. 7. Mitigation measures have been recommended to minimize impacts where possible. In order for the mitigation measures to be implemented effectively they must be monitored on an on-going basis. 8. The majority of impacts will remain low with the implementation of the recommended mitigation measures. Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

26 Elandsfontein Phosphate Mine TIA Report_

27

28 TR77/1 ROUTE A TR21/2 Figure 2: Alternate Route Selection PROPOSED SITE FOR PHOSPHATE MINE PROPOSED ACCESS TO MINE SITE TR21/2 MR233 TR21/2 TR77/1 ROUTE C ROUTE B LEGEND ROUTE A ROUTE B ROUTE C COMMON ROUTE MR233 TR85/1 MR559 OP07643 HAUL ROAD OP07645

29 CONSTRUCTION PHASE Figure 3: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) during construction phase at the proposed intersection

30 OPERATIONS PHASE Figure 4: AM and PM traffic volumes (2024) during operations phase at the proposed intersection

31 Figure 5: Elandsfontein Mine Access Road

32 Figure 6: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) at the TR21/2 & MR233 intersection

33 CONSTRUCTION PHASE Figure 7: AM and PM traffic volumes (2015) during construction phase at the TR21/2 & MR233 intersection