West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study

Transcription

1 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study Prepared for: Armel Corporation January 2015 Paradigm Transportation Solutions Ltd. 22 King Street South, Suite 300 Waterloo ON N2J 1N8 pgrubb@ptsl.com Fax:

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3 PROJECT SUMMARY PROJECT NAME:... WEST HILLS SHOPPING CENTRE LOWE S EXPANSION TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY CLIENT:... ARMEL CORPORATION COMMERCE COURT WEST, 199 BAY STREET, SUITE 2900 TORONTO, ONTARIO P.O. BOX 459 M5L 1G4 CLIENT PROJECT MANAGER:... MR. COROSKY, VICE-PRESIDENT ARMEL CORPORATION CONSULTANT:... PARADIGM TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS LIMITED 22 KING STREET SOUTH, SUITE 300 WATERLOO ON N2J 1N8 PH: CONSULTANT PROJECT TEAM... PHIL GRUBB, ADAM J. MAKAREWICZ REPORT DATE:... JANUARY 2015 PROJECT NUMBER: P

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5 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENT The content of this report summarizes an update to the West Hills Traffic Impact Study 1 for a proposed commercial development located west of Elmira Road and north of Paisley Road in the City of Guelph. The main requirement for this updated traffic impact study is to address the revised site plan which considers the addition of a Lowe s establishment. This report documents the additional traffic that is expected to occur as a result of the development and assesses the impact of the traffic on the surrounding road network. The findings, conclusions and recommendations of this study are summarized below and outlined in detail in the body of the report. FINDINGS The main conclusions of this study are as follows: The intersections within the study area are currently operating within acceptable levels of service during the PM and Saturday peak hours. The proposed expansion to the West Hills Commercial Node will consist of developing lands on the northwest quadrant of Paisley Road and Elmira Road. At present, the Costco establishment is currently operational with the remainder of the property vacant. The preliminary concept plan indicates that the development will ultimately consist of 7 buildings with various retail land uses and an additional 650 to 700 parking spaces are anticipated to be provided in addition to the 651 parking spaces provided for the Costco establishment. The total gross floor area (GFA) assumed for expansion will be 154,500 square feet. The proposed expansion to the West Hills Commercial Node is expected to generate approximately 209 PM peak hour and 598 Saturday peak hour new vehicular trips The proposed expansion is planned to have a new driveway connection (Lowe s Driveway) to Elmira Road which will be located directly opposite the driveway located on the east side of Elmira Road that provides access to the West Hills Shopping Centre. The driveway connection is proposed to be signalized with a single inbound and outbound travel lane. The intersections within the study area will continue to operate within acceptable levels of service during the PM and Saturday peak hours upon reaching the 2020 and 2025 horizon with the addition of the proposed development as well as planned other area developments. The SimTraffic simulation for the 2025 total horizon indicated that the 95th Percentile Queue Length for the Saturday Peak Hour of the roadway is expected to experience a slight overlap in the southbound direction between Paisley Road and Lowe s Driveway as well as Lowe s Driveway and the Costco Driveway. No overlap is expected for the weekday PM peak hour. It should be noted that the traffic counts utilized for the Saturday peak hour were conducted two weeks prior to Christmas which results in the highest traffic volumes along area roadways. This would be particularly true for the Elmira Road corridor given the amount of commercial establishments present. As a result of higher volumes than would typically occur, the overlap projected is not expected to be representative of typical conditions. 1 West Hills Shopping Centre Expansion, Prepared for Armel Corporation, Prepared by Paradigm Transportation Solutions Ltd, November Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page i

6 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P In Practical terms what the analysis reveals at peak seasonal shopping periods during the Saturday peak hour is that minor delays in the southbound direction along Elmira Road could be experienced. Additionally it should be noted that the 95th-percentile queue is defined to be the queue length that has only a 5-percent probability of being exceeded during the analysis time period. It is a useful parameter for determining the appropriate length of turn pockets, but it is not typical of what an average driver would experience. Driver experiences would be better characterized by the mean queue length which has indicated that no overlap is expected to occur during the Saturday peak hour. RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the investigations carried out in this study, the following recommendations regarding traffic improvements are provided: Lowe s Driveway should be controlled with traffic control signals with a separate northbound left turn lane. Signalization of the intersection is expected to be required for opening day of the expansion. As part of a normal signal monitoring program it is recommended that the City optimize signal timings on a regular basis to minimize delays during PM and Saturday peak hours as traffic demands change due to the level of development activity within the immediate area. No other roadway improvements are required or recommended to accommodate the traffic related to the subject development. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page ii

7 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW STUDY AREA EXISTING CONDITIONS ROAD NETWORK TRAFFIC VOLUMES TRAFFIC OPERATIONS DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT DESCRIPTION ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS BACKGROUND TRAFFIC GROWTH GENERAL BACKGROUND GROWTH OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENTS OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENT TRIP DISTRIBUTION COMMUNITY CENTRE RE-ASSIGNMENT GROWTH SUMMARY BACKGROUND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS BACKGROUND TRAFFIC OPERATION BACKGROUND TRAFFIC OPERATION FUTURE TRAFFIC ESTIMATES DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION PASS-BY TRIPS INTERNAL TRIPS DEVELOPMENT TRIP DISTRIBUTION FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC OPERATIONS NEED FOR IMPROVEMENTS INTERSECTION ASSESSMENT SPEEDVALE AVENUE AND ELMIRA ROAD SPEEDVALE AVENUE AND IMPERIAL ROAD WILLOW ROAD AND IMPERIAL ROAD PAISLEY ROAD AND IMPERIAL ROAD PAISLEY ROAD AND ELMIRA ROAD ELMIRA ROAD AND WEST HILLS DRIVEWAY/LOWE S DRIVEWAY ELMIRA ROAD AND COSTCO DRIVEWAY ELMIRA ROAD AND NORTH DRIVEWAY ELMIRA ROAD AND WILLOW ROAD ELMIRA ROAD QUEUE ASSESSMENT CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONCLUSIONS RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDICES APPENDIX A EXISTING LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS APPENDIX B 2020 & 2025 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS APPENDIX C ITE MULTI-USE DEVELOPMENT WORKSHEET APPENDIX D 2020 & 2025 TOTAL TRAFFIC LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS APPENDIX E SIMTRAFFIC QUEUE CALCULATIONS Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited

8 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P FIGURES FIGURE 1.1: DEVELOPMENT LOCATION... 2 FIGURE 2.1: EXISTING CONDITIONS... 4 FIGURE 2.2A: 2014 EXISTING PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES... 7 FIGURE 2.2B: 2014 EXISTING SAT PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES... 8 FIGURE 3.1: PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT FIGURE 4.1A: 2020 BACKGROUND PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.1B: 2020 BACKGROUND SATURDAY PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.2A: 2025 BACKGROUND PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.2B: 2025 BACKGROUND SATURDAY PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.3A: SITE GENERATED PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.3B: SITE GENERATED SATURDAY PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.4A: 2020 TOTAL PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.4B: 2020 TOTAL SATURDAY PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.5A: 2025 TOTAL PM PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.5B: 2025 TOTAL SATURDAY PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES FIGURE 4.6: 2020 & 2025 ASSUMED LANE CONFIGURATION FIGURE 5.1: TH PERCENTILE QUEUE LENGTH ANALYSES TABLES TABLE 2.1: 2011 VS 2014 TRAFFIC VOLUME COMPARISON... 6 TABLE 2.2: LEVEL OF SERVICE DEFINITIONS... 9 TABLE 2.3: LEVEL OF SERVICE BY MODE FOR URBAN ROADWAYS... 9 TABLE 2.2A: 2014 EXISTING PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 2.2B: 2014 EXISTING SATURDAY PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.1: OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENTS TABLE 4.2: OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION TABLE 4.3: TRIP DISTRIBUTION TABLE 4.4A: 2020 BACKGROUND PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.4B: 2020 BACKGROUND SAT PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.5A: 2025 BACKGROUND PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.5B: 2025 TOTAL SATURDAY PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.6: DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION TABLE 4.7: DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION (EXTERNAL TRIPS ONLY) TABLE 4.8: DEVELOPMENT TRIP DISTRIBUTION TABLE 4.9A: 2020 TOTAL PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.9B: 2020 TOTAL SATURDAY PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.10A: 2025 TOTAL PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS TABLE 4.10B: 2025 TOTAL SATURDAY PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited

9 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview The content of this report summarizes an update to the West Hills Traffic Impact Study 2 for a proposed commercial development located west of Elmira Road and north of Paisley Road in the City of Guelph. The main requirement for this updated traffic impact study is to address the revised site plan which considers the addition of a Lowe s establishment. As a result of this update to the site plan, Armel Corporation has retained Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited (Paradigm) to undertake the updated traffic impact study for this development. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the development traffic on the surrounding road network and identify any improvements necessary to accommodate this traffic. The scope of the study includes determination of the current traffic and site conditions in the vicinity of the development, development of estimates of the background traffic growth in the area, estimating the additional traffic that will be generated by the development, assessment of the impact of this traffic and provision of recommendations on the remedial measures necessary to accommodate the site traffic in a satisfactory manner. The study has followed the City s guidelines for traffic impact studies. 1.2 Study Area The subject of this report consists of development of the vacant lands located on the west side of Elmira Road and north of Paisley Road in the City of Guelph. The development is proposed to have three new driveway connections to Elmira Road. The location of the development site is illustrated in Figure 1.1. The intersections that have been evaluated in this study are consistent with the previous report including: 1) Speedvale Avenue and Elmira Road (Signalized), 2) Speedvale and Imperial Road (Signalized), 3) Willow Road and Imperial Road (Signalized), 4) Paisley Road and Imperial Road (Signalized), 5) Paisley Road and Elmira Road (Signalized), 6) Elmira Road and West Hills Driveway (Unsignalized), 7) Elmira Road and Costco Driveway (Signalized), 8) Elmira Road and North Driveway (Unsignalized), and 9) Willow Road and Elmira Road (Signalized). 2 West Hills Shopping Centre Expansion, Prepared for Armel Corporation, Prepared by Paradigm Transportation Solutions Ltd, November Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 1

10 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 1.1: Development Location Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 2

11 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS 2.1 Road Network This section provides an overview of the existing conditions on the roadways in the study area. Paisley Road is major east-west arterial roadway with an existing four lane urban-cross section. Paisley Road (Wellington Road 30 west of Guelph) runs from Woolwich-Guelph Town Line in the west to Edinburgh Road North in the east, at which point it becomes Paisley Street, continuing into downtown Guelph. In the immediate area of the subject site, Paisley Road has a four-lane urban cross-section. Paisley Road has traffic control signals with Imperial Road and Elmira Road. Separate eastbound and westbound left turn lanes are provided at the intersections with Imperial Road and Elmira Road. The posted speed is 50 km/h east of Imperial Road and 60 km/h west of Imperial Road. Development along this roadway consists mainly of existing residential and commercial uses. Paisley Road currently has a signalized intersection with the Hanlon Expressway, providing for all movements. With the future upgrading of the Hanlon Expressway, it is anticipated that this intersection will be replaced with a grade separation with only some limited movements to and from Hanlon Expressway. Imperial Road is a north-south collector roadway with a four-lane urban cross-section in the vicinity of the West Hills Shopping Centre. Imperial Road runs from north of Woodlawn Road West (Highway 7) in the north to Wellington Street West (Highway 24) in the south. North of the CNR tracks Imperial Road has a basic two lane cross-section with a turning lane. Developments along this roadway consist mainly of residential land uses and the posted speed limit is 50 km/h. South of the CNR, this roadway provides access to the West Hills Commercial Node and the West End Recreation Centre Site. Elmira Road is a north-south arterial roadway with a three-lane cross-section adjacent, north and south of the site (two through lanes, flush centre median/left turn lane) as well as bicycle lanes on each side of the road. It widens to a four-lane cross-section with additional left turn lanes at its intersection with Paisley Road. Elmira Road runs south to Fife Road and north to Wellington Road 7 where the roadway becomes Wellington County Road 86. Developments along this roadway consist mainly of residential land uses as well as pockets of vacant land. Willow Road is an east-west roadway that functions as an arterial road with a two-lane urban cross-section west of Elmira Road and a three lane cross-section (two through lanes and centre turn lane) with bicycle lanes east of Elmira Road. Willow Road runs from west of Elmira Road east to Edinburgh Road. Willow Road currently has a signalized intersection with the Hanlon Expressway, providing all movements and has a posted speed limit of 50 km/h. Figure 2.1 illustrates the existing lane configurations, traffic control on the above noted roadways. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 3

12 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 2.1: Existing Key Conditions Traffic Control Signals Stop Control Lane Configuration Elmira Road Imperial Road Project North Speedvale Avenue Willow Road North Driveay Costco Driveway Imperial Road Elmira Road West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm Figure 2.1 Existing Conditions Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 4

13 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 2.2 Traffic Volumes In order to properly assess intersection operations, Turning Movement Counts (TMC s) are used to quantify the movement of vehicles through the area. Existing traffic data at an intersection or on a road section forms the foundation for analysis. TMC s are usually taken during peak periods at an intersection to complete level of service analysis. Since the development is commercial in nature, we have only carried the PM and Saturday peak hour analysis forward as the concentration of traffic activity for the proposed development will occur during these peak hours primarily. The following describes the traffic data that has been collected: Existing PM peak hour turning movement counts were provided by the City of Guelph for the following intersections: Elmira Road and Willow Road (April 2013), Paisley Road and Imperial Road (October 2012), Paisley Road and Elmira Road (April 2013), and Paisley Road and West Hills Driveway (October 2012). Existing Saturday peak hour turning movement counts were also conducted by Paradigm for the following intersections: Paisley Road and Elmira Road (December 2014), Paisley Road and Imperial Road (December 2014), Elmira Road and Willow Road (December 2014). Existing PM and Saturday turning movement counts were conducted by Paradigm for the following intersections: Speedvale Avenue and Elmira Road (December 2014), Speedvale Avenue and Imperial Road (December 2014), Imperial Road and Willow Road (December 2014), Imperial Road and Community Centre Driveway (December 2014), Imperial Road and West Hills Driveway (December 2014), Elmira Road and West Hills Driveway (December 2014), Elmira Road and Costco Driveway (December 2014), Elmira Road and North Driveway (January 2015). The 2011 volumes which were used for the previous report were compared to the 2013 and 2014 turning movement counts for the respective intersections to determine how much growth has occurred along the Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 5

14 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P area roadways. Table 2.1 outlines the growth for the intersections and indicate a negative growth has occurred from year 2011 to year 2014 during the weekday PM peak hour for more than half of the intersections within the study area. However, for the Saturday peak hour, all intersections within the study area experience a substantial increase in growth. This may be a result of the timing of the counts within the Christmas period and the operation of the Costco site. It is expected that typical Saturday volumes will be lower. TABLE 2.1: 2011 VS 2014 TRAFFIC VOLUME COMPARISON Intersection Peak hour 2011 Volume 2014 Volume % Increase Paisley Road & Elmira Road Paisley Road & Imperial Road Imperial Road & Willow Road Speedvale Avenue & Imperial Road Speedvale Avenue & Elmira Road Average PM 1,858 1, % Saturday 779 1, % PM 2,756 1, % Saturday 1,239 2, % PM 1,262 1, % Saturday 791 1, % PM 1,897 2, % Saturday 958 1, % PM 1,959 2, % Saturday 841 1, % PM % Saturday % Based on historical traffic data, the PM peak hour counts conducted prior to 2014 were not factored to 2014 volumes given the trend over the last 3 years indicates a decrease in volume. It is also noted that all volumes associate with the Saturday peak hour have been established based on 2014 volumes. The existing balanced weekday PM peak hour and Saturday peak hour traffic volumes are illustrated in Figures 2.2A and 2.2B. Additionally, for the purposes of this report, the counts at the West Hills driveway connections to Paisley Road and Imperial Road were not evaluated as these counts were used to estimate the amount of traffic the West Hills Commercial Node is currently generating. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 6

15 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 2.2A: 2014 Existing PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North North Driveway Willow Road Elmira Road 478 Imperial Road Costco Driveway Community Centre Driveway West Hills Driveway 124 Lowe's Driveway West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Driveway Figure 2.2A 2014 Existing PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 7

16 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 2.2B: 2014 Existing Sat Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North Willow Road North Driveway Elmira Road Imperial Road 11 Costco Driveway Community Centre Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway 88 Lowe's Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm West Hills Driveway Figure 2.2B 2014 Existing Saturday Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 8

17 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 2.3 Traffic Operations Intersection level of service is a recognized method of quantifying the efficiency of traffic flow at intersections. It is based on the delay experienced by individual vehicles executing the various movements. The delay is related to the number of vehicles desiring to make a particular movement compared to the estimated capacity for that movement. Table 2.2 contains the level of service criteria for signalized and stop-controlled intersections. The highest or best possible rating is level of service A, under which the average total delay on a movement, approach or intersection is less than 10 seconds per vehicle. Level of Service E is the point at which remedial measures are considered, depending on the nature and extent of the delays. However, Level of Service E is commonly accepted for left-turning traffic at intersections. When the average delay exceeds 50 seconds at unsignalized intersections, or 80 seconds at signalized intersections, the movement is classified as Level of Service F and remedial measures are usually implemented, if they are feasible. TABLE 2.2: LEVEL OF SERVICE DEFINITIONS Signalized Intersections Unsignalized Intersections Level of Service Average Total Delay Average Total Delay (sec/veh) (sec/veh) A < = 10 < = 10 B > 10 & < = 20 > 10 & < = 15 C > 20 & < = 35 > 15 & < = 25 D > 35 & < = 55 > 25 & < = 35 E > 55 & < = 80 > 35 & < = 50 F > 80 > 50 The level of service for urban roadways is also depicted visually in Table 2.3. This figure provides a visual of how level of service A to level of service F would typically appear on an urban roadway. TABLE 2.3: LEVEL OF SERVICE BY MODE FOR URBAN ROADWAYS Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 9

18 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P The operations of the intersections in the study area were evaluated using the existing traffic volumes illustrated in Figures 2.2A and 2.2B as well as the current intersection lane configuration and traffic control that is illustrated in Figure 2.1. Synchro 7 traffic analyses software was used for this assessment with HCM 2000 procedures. The results are summarized in Table 2.2A and Table 2.2B and the detailed Synchro reports are provided in Appendix A. The intersection analysis considered the following measures of performance: The level of service for each turning movement, and The volume to capacity ratio for each intersection. Based on the above criteria and the entries in Table 2.2A and 2.2B, the following is noted: During the PM and Saturday peak hours the unsignalized and signalized intersections within the study area are operating at acceptable levels of service with minimal delays. Detailed Synchro output is provided in Appendix A. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 10

19 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P TABLE 2.2A: 2014 EXISTING PM PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS Direction / Movement / Approach Analysis Period Peak Hour Control Type Intersection # Intersection MOE LEFT Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH OVERALL Speedvale Avenue LOS C C C C C C C C A A A A B B B B B 1 & Delay (s) V/C Elmira Road Queue, 95th (m) Speedvale Avenue LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B B B B B C 2 & Delay (s) V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Willow Road LOS B B B B B B B B A A A A A A A A B 2014 Existing Conditions PM Signalized Unsignalized Signalized Delay (s) & V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Paisley Road LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B B B B B C Delay (s) & V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Paisley Road LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B A B B B B Delay (s) & V/C Elmira Road Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A A A A A Delay (s) & V/C West Hills Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A B B B B Delay (s) & V/C Costco Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Unsignalized 8 Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A A A A A Delay (s) & V/C North Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B B B B B B A A A A A A A A A Signalized 9 & Delay (s) V/C Willow Road Queue, 95th (m) Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 11

20 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P TABLE 2.2B: 2014 EXISTING SATURDAY PEAK HOUR LEVEL OF SERVICE CONDITIONS Direction / Movement / Approach Analysis Period Peak Hour Control Type Intersection # Intersection MOE LEFT Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH LEFT THROUGH RIGHT APPROACH OVERALL Speedvale Avenue LOS C C C C C C C C A A A A A A A A B 1 & Delay (s) V/C Elmira Road Queue, 95th (m) Speedvale Avenue LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B A B B B B 2 & Delay (s) V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Willow Road LOS B B B B B B B B A A A A A A A A B Signalized 3 & Delay (s) V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Paisley Road LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B B B B B C 2015 Existing Conditions Saturday Unsignalized Delay (s) & V/C Imperial Road Queue, 95th (m) Paisley Road LOS C C C C C C C C B B B B B A A A B Delay (s) & V/C Elmira Road Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A A A A A Delay (s) & V/C West Hills Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A B B B B Signalized 7 & Delay (s) V/C Costco Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Unsignalized 8 Elmira Road LOS B B B A A A A A A A Delay (s) & V/C North Driveway Queue, 95th (m) Elmira Road LOS B B B B C B B C A A A A A A A A A Signalized 9 & Delay (s) V/C Willow Road Queue, 95th (m) Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 12

21 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 3.0 DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT 3.1 Development Description The West Hills Shopping Centre is located north of Paisley Road west of Imperial Road and east of Elmira Road and is bounded by vacant lands currently to the west and north in the City of Guelph. The current site has approximately 152,600 square feet (GFA) currently occupied which consists of the following uses: Supermarket Financial Institution s Restaurants Optical store Dentistry Hair Salon Tax Service centre. The existing West Hills Shopping Centre currently has access provided via a single all directional access to Elmira Road, two all-directional driveway connections to Paisley Road and a single right in/left in/right out access to Imperial Road. All existing driveway connections are controlled by stop signs for the driveway approaches with the exception of the most westerly access on Paisley Road which is controlled by traffic control signals. The proposed expansion to the West Hills Commercial Node will consist of developing lands on the northwest quadrant of Paisley Road and Elmira Road. At present, the Costco establishment is currently operational with the remainder of the property vacant. The preliminary concept plan indicates that the development will ultimately consist of 7 buildings with various retail land uses and a range of 650 to 700 parking spaces are anticipated to be provided to facilitate the future development in addition to the 651 spaces provided for the Costco establishment. The total gross floor area (GFA) for the proposed expansion will be 154,500 square feet. The conceptual site components are shown in detail below as well as on the conceptual site plan as illustrate in Figure 3.1. The site components are further described: Lowe s 104,805ft 2 of Home Improvements Superstore. Block A - 5,100 ft 2 General Retail Block B 5,100 ft 2 General Retail Block C 5,100 ft 2 General Retail Block D 4,950 ft 2 General Retail Block E 6,975 ft 2 General Retail Block F - 4,950 ft 2 General Retail Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 13

22 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P As the plan for the ancillary retail is currently conceptual and actual demand of the site may achieve more efficient coverage; for the purposes of analysis, approximately 49,695 square feet of general ancillary retail has been assumed. Access to the development is proposed via three driveway connections to Elmira Road; which are shown to be all directional with some modifications to be determined as a result of this report. The driveway connections are further described below: Lowe s Driveway is located approximately 185 meters north of the intersection of Elmira Road and Paisley Road which will function with all movements permitted. It is noted that the Lowes Driveway will be located directly opposite an existing all-directional driveway connection on the east side of the roadway providing access to the West Hills Shopping Centre. This is a preferred access arrangement as this will minimize the amount of left turn overlaps between the two driveway connections as well as provide a centralized access for the two developments on either side of Elmira Road. Traffic control for the intersection of Elmira Road and Lowe s Driveway is assumed to be with traffic control signals as indicated on the most recent concept plan with a single inbound and outbound travel lane. Costco Driveway is an existing driveway connection located approximately 360 meters north of the intersection of Paisley Road and Elmira Road. Future plans indicate that the east leg of this intersection will provide access to the existing recreation centre as well as a further phase of the West Hills Shopping Centre. Traffic control at this driveway connection is provided through traffic control signals with a single inbound and two outbound travel lanes. It is also noted that there is a separate northbound left turn lane and separate southbound right turn lane at the intersection with Elmira Road. North Driveway is an existing driveway located approximately 511 meters north of the intersection of Paisley Road Elmira Road that functions with all movements permitted. Stop sign control is provided for the eastbound approach and a separate northbound left turn lane is also provided. Previous concepts for the property contemplated a potential additional driveway connection from the site to Paisley Road, likely aligned with Whitelaw Road. More detailed analysis of site grading has determined that such a connection is not feasible and possible. The conceptual layout of the development is illustrated in Figure 3.1. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 14

23 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 3.1: Proposed Development Concept Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 15

24 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 4.0 ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS 4.1 Background Traffic Growth Two horizon years have been developed for the future background traffic estimates. The first horizon year has assumed full build out of the development will occur at or before the 2020 horizon year. The second scenario has assumed a horizon year of 2025, 5 years after full-build out to remain consistent with the City s guidelines for traffic impact studies. The 2020 and 2025 horizon years are described below: General Background Growth The likely future traffic volumes in the vicinity of the development site will consist of the traffic generated by the development plus the background traffic growth on the roadway network. Historic traffic volumes at the area intersections from years 2011 and 2013/2014 indicates that traffic has experience a negative growth during the weekday PM peak hour and a substantial increase during the Saturday peak hour. The increase associated with the Saturday peak hour could be a reflection of an increase in holiday shopping given the counts were conducted two weeks prior to Christmas as well as a reflection of the amount of commercial development that has been completed within the area prior to To remain conservative as well as to not overestimate the general growth in background traffic, a growth rate of 1% per annum as well as the inclusion of other area developments has been considered to provide a reasonable representation of the projected traffic estimates along the area roadways Other Area Developments During this period of time, it is possible that there will be other new developments in the area that will increase the existing traffic volumes on the area roadways. The previous 2011 traffic impact study indicated a substantial amount of residential development that is planned to be developed and will have a direct impact along the area roadways. The background development activity within the study area over the next 5 to 10 years is identified in Table 4.1. TABLE 4.1: OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENTS Other Area Active Developments Year Location Development Name Commercial (ft 2 ) Residential Units Notes Northwest Quadrant Imperial & Paisley West Hills Shopping Centre Phase 2 27,930 - Assumed General Retail West of Tovell Drive Armel Lower Density Subdivisions Single Family Units 2020 Southeast Quadrant Elmira & Willow Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouse, 10 Single Family Southwest Quadrant Elmira & Tovell Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouse, 120 Single Family East of Elmira, South of Rec Centre West Hills Shopping Centre Phase 3 102,312 - Assumed Supermarket and General Retail 2020 Horizon Total 130, Southeast Quadrant Paisley & Whitelaw Southwest Quadrant Paisley & Whitelaw Southeast Quadrant Elmira & Paisley Southeast Quadrant Ryde & Paisley Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouses, 290 Single Family Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouses, 290 Single Family Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouse, 240 Single Family Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouse, 80 Single Family East of Deerpath Drive Armel Multi-Res Site Townhouse, 100 Single Family 2025 Horizon Total - 1,310 Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 16

25 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Other Area Development Trip Generation The traffic generated by the background development have been estimated for the weekday PM and Saturday peak hours using the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual 3. Since the commercial components are part of a multi-use site, an onsite trip reduction of 20% was applied to the commercial trip generation estimates as per the ITE Trip Generation Manual (Chapter 7 Multi-Use Developments), which indicates that trips to/from retail from other retail land uses is 20%. In accordance with the ITE guidelines the reduction was taken before determination of passby trips. The total trips estimated to be generated by the other area developments are summarized in Table 4.2. TABLE 4.2: OTHER AREA DEVELOPMENT TRIP GENERATION Year Location Land Use ITE Code # of Units GFA (ft 2 ) Trips PM Peak Saturday Rate In Out Total Rate In Out Total Northwest Quadrant Imperial & Paisley General Retail ,930 Total Passby 34% % New 66% % West of Tovell Drive Single Family Detached Total Southeast Quadrant Elmira & Willow Townhouse Total Southwest Quadrant Elmira & Tovell Mid-Rise Apartments Total Total Supermarket (Addition) ,093 Passby 36% % New 66% % East of Elmira, South of Rec Centre General Retail ,219 Total Passby 34% % New 66% % Total Total ,242 Passby New Total Other Area Total Passby New Southeast Quadrant Paisley & Whitelaw Mid-Rise Apartments Total Southwest Quadrant Paisley & Whitelaw Mid-Rise Apartments Total Southeast Quadrant Elmira & Paisley Mid-Rise Apartments Total Single Family Detached Total Southeast Quadrant Ryde & Townhouse Paisley - Total Total 1170 Total Single Family Detached Total East of Deerpath Drive Townhouse Total Total 2025 Other Area Total Total Total Passby New Trip Generation Eighth Edition, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington D.C., 2003 Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 17

26 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Other Area Development Trip Distribution The trip distribution for the background development is based on trip distribution found in a previous report entitled West Hills Commercial Centre Phase 2 Traffic Impact Study 4 as well as the distribution found on the area roadways. It is expected that the majority of trips are oriented/destined towards areas east of the study area. The trip distribution is summarized in Table 4.3. TABLE 4.3: TRIP DISTRIBUTION North South East West Travel Origin (To/From) Percentage via Elmira Road 13% via Imperial Road 7% via Elmira Road 6% via Imperial Road 13% via Speedvale Road 15% via Willow Road 6% via Paisley Road 17% via Speedvale Road 10% via Willow Road 1% via Paisley Road Total 12% 100% Community Centre Re-Assignment For the 2020 and 2025 horizon, the fourth leg of the intersection of Elmira Road and Costco Driveway is expected to be operational with some traffic diverted from the Community Centre that currently uses the intersection of Imperial Road and the Community Centre Driveway. Additionally it should be noted that the first internal intersection on the east leg of the intersection of Elmira Road and Costco Driveway will be limited to right/left in and right out only, thus outbound traffic from Phase II of the West Hills Shopping Centre has been re-routed to additional driveways servicing the overall development Growth Summary In summary, the following assumptions have been made with regard to traffic growth for the 2020 horizon: A growth rate of 1.0% per annum was assumed for the PM and Saturday Peak Hours. These growth rates are consistent with the previously submitted and approved traffic impact study. Traffic related to Other Area Developments for the 2020 and 2025 horizon was assumed. It is estimated that these developments will result in an additional 1,309 PM peak hour and 1,384 Saturday peak hour trips along the area roadways when full-build out. The fourth leg of Elmira Road and Costco Driveway is assumed to have some traffic diverted from the existing Community Centre once the fourth leg is constructed. The amount of diverted traffic is assumed to be approximately 50% of the traffic currently being generated along the west leg of the intersection of Imperial Road and Community Centre Driveway. 4 West Hills Commercial Centre Phase 2, Traffic Impact Study, Prepared for Armel Corporation, Prepared by Paradigm, December Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 18

27 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P With the first intersection driveway connection along the east leg of the intersection of Elmira Road and Costco Driveway limited to right/left in and right out only, outbound traffic from Phase II of the West Hills Shopping Centre has been re-routed to additional driveways servicing the overall development. The background traffic volumes for the respective horizon years are provided in the following Figures: Figures 4.1A and 4.1B Background Horizon, and Figures 4.2A and 4.2B Background Horizon. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 19

28 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 4.1A: 2020 Background PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North Willow Road North Driveway Elmira Road Imperial Road Costco Driveway 0 Community Centre Driveway Lowe's Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm Figure 4.1A 2020 Background PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 20

29 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 4.1B: 2020 Background Saturday Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North Willow Road North Driveway Elmira Road 29 Imperial Road Costco Driveway 0 Community Centre Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway 189 Lowe's Driveway West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm Figure 4.1B 2020 Background Saturday Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 21

30 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 4.2A: 2025 Background PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North Willow Road North Driveway Elmira Road Imperial Road Costco Driveway 0 Community Centre Driveway Lowe's Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm Figure 4.2A 2025 Background PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 22

31 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P Figure 4.2B: 2025 Background Saturday Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Speedvale Avenue Project North Willow Road North Driveway Elmira Road 31 Imperial Road Costco Driveway 0 Community Centre Driveway West Hills Driveway West Hills Driveway 194 Lowe's Driveway West Hills Driveway Paisley Road West Hills Shopping Centre Lowes Expansion Traffic Impact Study Paradigm Figure 4.2B 2025 Background Saturday Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 23

32 West Hills Shopping Centre Lowe s Expansion Traffic Impact Study January P 4.2 Background Traffic Operations Level of service conditions were assessed for the 2020 and 2025 future background traffic volumes using Synchro Version 7 with HCM 2000 procedures Background Traffic Operation For the 2020 future background traffic volumes, the intersections within the study area were assessed based upon the existing lane configurations, traffic control, and modified signal timings. The results are summarized in Table 4.4A and 4.4B, detailed calculations can be found in Appendix B. The following is noted: During the PM and Saturday peak hours the unsignalized and signalized intersections within the study area are expected to operate at acceptable levels of service with minimal delays. Detailed Synchro output is provided in Appendix B Background Traffic Operation For the 2025 future background traffic volumes, the intersections within the study area were assessed based upon the existing lane configurations, traffic control, and modified signal timings. The results are summarized in Table 4.5A and 4.5B, detailed calculations can be found in Appendix B. The following is noted: During the PM and Saturday peak hours the unsignalized and signalized intersections within the study area are expected to operate at acceptable levels of service with minimal delays. Detailed Synchro output is provided in Appendix B. Paradigm Transportation Solutions Limited Page 24