Cornubia Retail and Business Park Development

Transcription

1 Development July 2013 Tongaat Hulett Development (Pty) Ltd Tel. No.: Contact Person: Karen Petersen 21 West Riding Row, Sherwood Tel: Andrew McKune

2 SMEC REPORT QUALITY ASSURANCE ISSUE DATA Report Title: for Client: Tongaat Hulett Development (Pty) Ltd Project Name: Development Report Number: DH913 Revision Number 5 Revision History: Date Report Status Written by Reviewed by Rev 5 Amended site configuration and road layout Name Issued to Institution S Plaatjies A McKune Rory Wilkinson Tongaat Hulett Developments Approved by: Signed Date

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Vela VKE Consulting Engineers (Part of the SMEC Group) was appointed by Tongaat Hulett (Pty) Ltd to undertake a (TIA) for the proposed Development. This report should be read in conjunction with the Proposed Cornubia Development Transportation Study (Revision J, October 11, 2011) prepared by Goba and Dave McFarlane and Associates (DMA). The Cornubia Integrated Human Settlement Development is being implemented in a phased manner across the overall site. Currently under construction is the Industrial Precinct and first phase of the housing component. These are to be accessed off the R102 and Old North Coast Road. The Cornubia Retail and Business Park represents a new phase of the Cornubia Development that is located within the south-east quadrant of the development and will obtain access via the M41 in the short term. Similarly to the accesses for the industrial and housing phases, access for the Retail Park will open up access to the total Cornubia Development and northwards towards the airport and beyond as provided for in the Northern Urban Development Corridor Plan (NUDC) and associated Local Area Plans. Of particular relevance is the main collector referred to as Dube East that is to be accessed off the M41 and which will run parallel to the N2 to at least the M93 (Mdloti Verulam road). Also as part of both the Cornubia Development Framework as well as NUDC, the existing Flanders Drive/M41 interchange is identified as a strategic access requirement. The need for the upgrade of the Flanders Drive / M41 interchange and the construction of Dube East is therefore clearly dealt with and provided for and the provides an early catalyst for these upgrades which will facilitate further new development within the Cornubia development and beyond. The study takes into consideration the external road network in the immediate vicinity of the proposed Development, as well as the proposed internal road network. The existing road network was assessed and analysed in Sidra using 2011 traffic volumes and it was found that the existing infrastructure is operating at or near capacity and that improvements to these intersections would be required even without this development based upon annual traffic growth in the region. A growth factor of 2.5% per annum was applied to the existing 2011 traffic volumes to obtain 2015 background traffic volumes. The 2015 background plus retail park and Phase 1 (Industrial) development generated traffic volumes were analysed in SIDRA and Vissim. It is recommended that the proposed Development be approved in terms of the expected traffic impact of the development. This approval should be based on the following external road network and intersection improvements assuming that the proposed bulk of m 2 is to be developed all at the same time. If it is to be phased there may be provision for an associated phasing in of this infrastructure. The existing road infrastructure accessing the M41, in the vicinity of the proposed Retail Park Development site, is already operating at capacity. Direct access to and from the M41 into Flanders Drive / Dube East is required in order to accommodate both the short term and long term development generated as well as background traffic volumes. The M41 / Flanders Drive Interchange is proposed as a partial parclo interchange with a slip ramp off Dube East, onto the M41 highway. Based upon the ultimate expected traffic flow at this interchange from the whole of Cornubia and broader region, the partial parclo option is recommended from a Traffic and Transportation Engineering perspective as it would more than adequately provide for the future traffic generation. There may however be scope to phase the upgrade to the interchange dependent upon development take-up in the region. (A)

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No 1. INTRODUCTION Background to the Project Scope and Objectives Extent of the Study EXISTING TRAFFIC CONDITIONS Intersection One - M41 and Link Road Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Intersection Two - Link Road and Flanders Drive Intersection Intersection Three - M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Intersection Four - Flanders Drive East / Flanders Drive West (to / from M41) Intersection Intersection Five - Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road Intersection PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AND ACCESS ARRANGEMENTS Proposed Development Proposed Access Arrangements TRIP GENERATION TRIP DISTRIBUTION TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS Background Traffic ASSESSMENT OF PHASED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED RETAIL AND BUSINESS PARK DEVELOPMENT FOR Intersection One - M41 and Link Road Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Intersection Two - Link Road and Flanders Drive Intersection Intersection Three - M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Intersection Four - Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) Intersection Dube East / SASA Boulevard Intersection SASA Boulevard Roundabout Access SASA Boulevard / Flanders Drive and Access Road Proposed M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Interchange ANALYSIS OF THE 2040 TRAFFIC VOLUMES VISSIM MICRO SIMULATION MODEL PUBLIC TRANSPORT ANALYSIS i

5 PEDESTRIAN IMPACT ANALYSIS ROAD SAFETY CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATIONS External Road Network Internal Road Network Layout: M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Interchange LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Locality Plan... 2 Figure 2: Location of Traffic Counts Undertaken in July Figure 3: Existing AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes... 5 Figure 4: Existing PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes... 6 Figure 5: Existing Layout of M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp)... 7 Figure 6: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive / Link Road Intersection... 8 Figure 7: Existing Layout of M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Figure 8: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) Intersection Figure 9: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road Intersection Figure 10: AM Peak Hour Distribution Pattern of Development Generated Trips Figure 11: PM Peak Hour Distribution Pattern of Development Generated Trips Figure 12: Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Figure 13: 2015 Background AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Figure 14: 2015 Background plus Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes for the Proposed Development Figure 15: Future Layout of M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Figure 16: Future Layout of Flanders Drive / Link Road Intersection Figure 17: Future Layout of M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) Figure 18: Future Layout of Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to/ from M41) Intersection Figure 19: Future Layout of Dube East / SASA Boulevard Intersection Figure 20: Future Layout of SASSA Boulevard Roundabout A Figure 21: SASA Blvd / Access Road Figure 22: Future Layout of Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road Figure 23: M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Proposed Layout Figure 24: AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Figure 25: Traffic Road Layout - Partial Parclo Figure 26: 2040 AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Figure 27: Origin-Destination Diagram Figure 28: Zone Representation Figure 29: Zone 1 Lane Details ii

6 Figure 30: Zone 2 Lane Detail Figure 31: Speed distribution profile Figure 32: Visual example of traffic light offsets LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road - AM Peak... 7 Table 2: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road - PM Peak... 8 Table 3: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - AM Peak... 9 Table 4: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - PM Peak... 9 Table 5: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - AM Peak Table 6: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - PM Peak Table 7: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - AM Peak Table 8: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to /from M41) - PM Peak Table 9: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - AM Peak Table 10: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - PM Peak Table 11: Proposed Retail Park Land Use and Gross-Lease-able Area Table 12: Person Trip Generation Rates (Source: Proposed Cornubia Development Transportation Study) Table 13: Modal Split Generation Rates in the weekday AM and PM Peak Hour for the Proposed Table 14: Generated Trips in the weekday AM and PM Peak Hour for the Proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park Table 15: PM Peak Hour Pass-by and Primary Trips for the Proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park Table 16: Typical Traffic Growth Rates (Source: Manual for Traffic Impact Studies, DoT) Table 17: Site 1 and 2 Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Table 18: Site 3 and 4 Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Table 19: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 20: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 21: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 22: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 23: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 24: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 25: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 26: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - PM Peak (2015) plus development generated) Table 27: Movement Summary Dube East / SASA Blvd - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) iii

7 Table 28: Movement Summary Dube East / SASA Blvd - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 29: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout A - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 30: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout A - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated)39 Table 31: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout B - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 32: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout B - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated)41 Table 33: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Table 34: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - PM Peak (2014 plus development generated) Table 35: Final OD Matrix for AM Peak Hour of Proposed Table 36: Final OD Matrix for PM Peak Hour of Proposed Table 37 : LOS weaving segments Table 38: Development generated Public Transport (bus) Trips Table 39: Development Generated AM and PM peak hour public transport trips Table 40: Reduction in Speeds iv

8 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Project Vela VKE Consulting Engineers (Part of the SMEC Group) was appointed by Tongaat Hulett Developments (Pty) Ltd to conduct a for the proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park Development. The retail park development is to consist of m 2 of gross leasable area and forms part of the greater Cornubia Development Framework. The proposed Cornubia Framework plan can be found in Annexure A1 of the report. This report should be read in conjunction with the Proposed Development Transportation Study Revision J (11 October 2011). The proposed Cornubia Development is situated to the west of the Umhlanga Ridge area, bounded by the National Route 2 (N2) to the east, Ohlanga River to the north, Provincial Main Road 2 (R102) to the west and the M41 (P94) to the south. The development of the land is a joint venture between the ethekwini Municipality and Tongaat Hulett Developments (Pty) Ltd. The development is to consist of approximately 25, 000 residential dwelling units with a mixture of residential; industrial; commercial and retail developments. The site on which the development is proposed has been allocated for general business (offices, business park, retail and showroom) within the proposed Cornubia Development Framework as detailed in the Transportation Study (Revision J) prepared by Goba / DMA for the Proposed Cornubia Development. The site is located north of the M41, adjacent to Flanders Drive and northwest of the Mount Edgecombe Interchange (N2 / M41). The M41, which is aligned in an east west direction and extends from Umhlanga in the east to Phoenix in the west, is a Provincial Road. The M41 will be one of the two main corridors of access to and from the proposed site (Flanders Drive). The location of the site in relation to surrounding road network and greater Cornubia Development Framework is shown on the Locality Plan provided in Figure 1. 1

9 Figure 1: Locality Plan 2

10 1.2 Scope and Objectives The purpose of the study is to undertake a full traffic impact assessment for the proposed development of the. The specific objectives of the study are as follows: Assess the performance of the existing road network and adjacent road sections based on current traffic volumes; Quantify potential trips generated as a result of the proposed development; Assess the effects of the proposed development on the external road network; Identify any road network improvements that may be required to the intersections and road network in the vicinity of the proposed development; Consider the long term planning and to ensure that the proposed development can be accommodated satisfactorily within this planning; and Comment on internal circulation requirements. The study will therefore indicate whether the development is acceptable from a traffic engineering perspective and identify improvement (if any) to the existing road network that will be required in order to maintain at least the existing level of service experienced on the surrounding road network. 1.3 Extent of the Study The guideline document, Manual for Traffic Impact Studies of the Department of Transport, was used to determine the extent of the traffic study. The proposed development will generate more than 150 peak hour trips and therefore a full traffic impact assessment is required. The study takes into consideration the external road network in the immediate vicinity of the proposed Retail Park Development, as well as the internal road network. The external components include five intersections in the vicinity of the proposed site: 1. M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp) this is a left-in, left-out on / offramp. 2. Link Road and Flanders Drive intersection this intersection is a T-Junction with a stop control on Link Road. Flanders Drive is the major road at this intersection. 3. M41 and Flanders Drive intersection (M41 on / off ramp) this also a left-in, left-out on / off-ramp. 4. Flanders Drive (east-west) and Flanders Drive (north-south) intersection - this intersection is a T-Junction with a stop control on Flanders Drive (north-south). 5. Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road intersection this intersection is stop control on the north and south legs with Flanders Drive being the major road. 3

11 2. EXISTING TRAFFIC CONDITIONS Existing traffic volumes on the road network immediately surrounding the site were obtained from traffic counts undertaken on Thursday 21 July 2011 at the following intersections: 1. M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp); 2. Link Road and Flanders Drive intersection; 3. M41 and Flanders Drive intersection (M41 on / off ramp); 4. Flanders Drive (east-west) and Flanders Drive (north-south) intersection; and 5. Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road intersection. The locations of the intersections in relation to the proposed development are pictured in Figure 2. Figure 2: Location of Traffic Counts Undertaken in July 2011 The AM peak hour on the surrounding road network occurs between 07h00 and 08h00 and the PM peak hour occurs between 16h15 and 17h15. The results of these counts are provided in Annexure B. The existing (July 2011) AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes, used for the traffic impact assessment, are illustrated in Figure 3 and Figure 4 respectively. Each of the intersections described above have been captured and analysed in SIDRA to determine the existing AM and PM peak hour conditions. 4

12 Figure 3: Existing AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 5

13 M41 Key: LOS A The Site LOS B LOS C LOS D LOS E LOS F LOS X* * Continuous movement Figure 4: Existing PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 6

14 2.1 Intersection One - M41 and Link Road Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The intersection of the M41 and Link Road is illustrated in Figure 5. Figure 5: Existing Layout of M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 1 and Table 2 respectively. The vehicle movement from the M41 left into Link Road is a free flow movement and therefore LOS results are not provided. Table 1: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road - AM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 South 1 L X X X X T X X X X Approach NA West: Link Road 10 L LOS A Approach LOS A All Vehicles NA The volume of vehicles turning left from the M41 into Link Road is significant (1189) but due to the free flow movement and two lanes, the capacity constraint will be at the upstream intersection. Sufficient through lanes on the M41 are able to accommodate the existing volume of vehicles (1120) with sufficient capacity for additional traffic. Very few vehicles (82) turned left from Link Road onto the M41 travelling towards Phoenix during the AM peak hour. 7

15 Table 2: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road - PM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 South 1 L X X X X T X X X X Approach NA West: Link Road 10 L LOS A Approach LOS A All Vehicles NA The PM peak hour has fewer vehicles in total passing through the intersection than during the AM peak hour. The left movement from Link Road into the M41 is almost three times greater (235) than that during the AM peak hour, but the resulting delay is still sufficiently small to display a LOS A. There is sufficient capacity in the existing intersection for the left and through movements from the M41 into Link Road and towards Phoenix. 2.2 Intersection Two - Link Road and Flanders Drive Intersection The intersection of Link Road and Flanders Drive is illustrated in Figure 6. Figure 6: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive / Link Road Intersection The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 3 and Table 4 respectively. The intersection operates as free flow along Flanders Drive, with a stop on Link Road. 8

16 Table 3: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - AM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Flanders Road South 2 T LOS A R LOS A Approach NA East: Link Road 4 L LOS C R LOS F Approach LOS F North: Flanders Road North 7 L LOS A T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA The through movements on Flanders Road are free flow and therefore do not experience any delays and have sufficient lane capacity to accommodate the vehicle volumes. The left and right turn movements from Flanders Drive into Link Road operate at a LOS A due to the low volumes. The left turn movement from Link Road into Flanders Drive is nearing capacity but sufficient gaps exist in the Flanders Drive through movement to allow these vehicles to enter the traffic flow. The right turn movement from Link Road into Flanders Drive experiences heavy delays and hence a LOS F. This is as a result of the conflict movements which have priority (Flanders Drive through movements) and result in large delays due to insignificant gaps in the traffic flow. Table 4: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - PM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Flanders Road South 2 T LOS A R LOS B Approach NA East: Link Road 4 L LOS C R LOS F Approach LOS F North: Flanders Road North 7 L LOS A T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA The LOS for the PM peak hour at this intersection is similar to that for the AM peak hour. The left right and through movements from Flanders Drive have sufficient capacity and operate at LOS B or better. The left and right turn movements from Link Road into Flanders Drive operate at LOS C and LOS F respectively, with significant delays being experienced for the right turn movement. 9

17 2.3 Intersection Three - M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The intersection of the M41 and Flanders Drive is illustrated in Figure 7. Figure 7: Existing Layout of M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 5 and Table 6. This intersection consists of an on and off ramp to the M41, both of which operate as free flow movements. Table 5: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - AM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h North: Flanders Drive 7 L X X X X Approach NA West: M41 West 10 L X X X X T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA The major movement is the through movement from Phoenix east towards the N2. The on ramp from Flanders Drive to the M41 has a high volume of vehicles (800) for a single lane. Due to the free flow nature of this intersection, a Sidra analysis does not accurately reflect the traffic conditions during the peak period. The traffic at this intersection has been assessed in a micro-simulation model in order to determine possible up and downstream impacts as a result of this existing configuration and vehicle volumes. 10

18 Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h North: Flanders Drive 7 L X X X X Approach NA West: M41 West 10 L X X X X T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA Similarly to the AM peak hour, the PM peak hour for this intersection must be analysed by a micro simulation software modelling package. The through movement eastbound is however significantly less than in the AM peak hour which can be expected. The left turn movement from Flanders Drive onto the M41 eastbound is very high for a single lane on ramp and is likely to experience delays irrespective of the results demonstrated from the Sidra analysis. 2.4 Intersection Four - Flanders Drive East / Flanders Drive West (to / from M41) Intersection Table 6: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - PM Peak The intersection of the Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) is illustrated in Figure 8. Figure 8: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) Intersection The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 7 and Table 8 respectively. This intersection consists of a T-junction with Flanders Drive (east / west) being the primary road. The intersection is not signalised. 11

19 Table 7: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - AM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: To / From M41 1 L LOS F R LOS F Approach LOS F East: Flanders Drive East 4 L LOS A T LOS A Approach NA West: Flanders Drive West 11 T LOS F R LOS F Approach NA All Vehicles NA The left and right turn movements from the M41 into Flanders Drive experience significant delays which will result in queuing onto the M41. Both of these movements operate at LOS F. The through and right turn movements from Flanders Drive West both operate at LOS F. Whilst Flanders Drive (east / west) is the primary route and hence the through movement should be free flow, the through and right turn movements share a single lane and hence the delays. The only approach that does not experience significant delays is that from Flanders Drive East which has right of way and hence delays of less than 10 seconds. Table 8: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to /from M41) - PM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: To / From M41 1 L LOS F R LOS F Approach LOS F East: Flanders Drive East 4 L LOS A T LOS A Approach NA West: Flanders Drive West 11 T LOS F R LOS F Approach NA All Vehicles NA The PM peak hour is similar to the AM peak hour with the same delays being experienced. 12

20 2.5 Intersection Five - Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road Intersection The intersection of Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road is illustrated in Figure 9. Figure 9: Existing Layout of Flanders Drive and Siphosethu Road Intersection The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 9 and Table 10 respectively. This intersection is not signalised. Table 9: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - AM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Siphosethu Road 1 L LOS C T LOS C R LOS C Approach LOS C East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS A Approach NA North: Siphosethu Road 7 L LOS B T LOS B R LOS B Approach LOS B West: Flanders Drive 10 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA

21 The most significant movement is the left turn from Siphosethu Road into Flanders Drive eastbound towards the M41. Most approaches are operating at LOS C or better with the greatest delay experienced from the south approach on Siphosethu Road. Flanders Drive is the primary route and understandably operates at LOS A for all movements from both the east and west approach. Table 10: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - PM Peak Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Siphosethu Road 1 L LOS D T LOS D R LOS D Approach LOS D East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS A Approach NA North: Siphosethu Road 7 L LOS B T LOS B R LOS B Approach LOS B West: Flanders Drive 10 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA Similarly to the AM peak hour, the PM peak hour experiences the most significant delays from the south approach on Siphosethu Road. All movements from Flanders Drive in all directions operate at LOS A. 14

22 3. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AND ACCESS ARRANGEMENTS 3.1 Proposed Development The site on which the development is proposed has been allocated for general business (offices, business park, retail and showroom) within the proposed Cornubia Development Framework as detailed in the Transportation Study (Revision J) prepared by Goba / DMA for the Proposed Cornubia Development. The total site area is approximately 20.8ha and the development will consist of Retail. The total Gross Leasable Area (GLA) for each Land Use is shown in Table 11. Table 11: Proposed Retail Park Land Use and Gross-Lease-able Area Site No. Land Use Area (ha) GLA (m 2 ) 1 Retail Centre Retail Centre National Box Retailer a National Box Retailer b National Box Retailer Proposed Access Arrangements The overall Cornubia Development is due to be constructed in phases, with Phase 1 due for completion in Currently a pilot project consisting of 486 housing units is under construction at the north-west boundary of the Cornubia Development. Neither the pilot site nor the industrial development will have an internal link to the proposed in the short-medium term. The Cornubia Development Framework has identified a number of new upgrades to existing interchanges and access points into and out of Cornubia. The timing of such construction and / or upgrades will be dependent upon development demands with the primary focus areas being to the existing N2 / M41 Mount Edgecombe interchange which SANRAL are in process of commencing and the R102 / Northern Drive intersection which will be required for the completion of the Cornubia Phase 1 development. The proposed roads / access arrangement in the vicinity of the Retail and Business Park Development is provided in Annexure A2. Access to the proposed development will therefore be via the following roads as per the Development Framework Plan: Flanders Drive East for vehicles from Mount Edgecombe East; Flanders Drive West for vehicles from Mount Edgecombe West; M41 eastbound for vehicles from Phoenix; M41 westbound for vehicles from N2 north (Tongaat) and Umhlanga; and N2 south / M41 Interchange for vehicles from the south (Durban). 15

23 The required upgrades (due to the ultimate development of Cornubia and broader region) of the left-off, left-on ramps to the M41 at Link Road will be determined and the details and potential phasing options that will provide only for the Retail Park in the short-term will be assessed. 16

24 4. TRIP GENERATION Trip generation rates published by the National Department of Transport (South African Trip Generation Rates, RR 92/228, 2 nd edition) are generally used to determine trip generation rates. A transportation study has however been conducted for the entire Cornubia Development and as such there are proposed trip generation rates for retail land uses. A Transportation Study for the Proposed Cornubia Development was prepared by Goba (Pty) Ltd and Dave McFarlane and Associates. The latest available version (Revision J) is dated 11 October This report provides trip generation rates for a mixture of land uses including retail. The trip generation rates as provided in the Cornubia Development Transportation Study are shown in Table 12. The trend public transport use scenarios are also provided. ELEMENT Employment density (employees per 100m 2 ) Table 12: Person Trip Generation Rates (Source: Proposed Cornubia Development Transportation Study) VALUE TREND PUBLIC TRANSPORT USE SCENARIOS HIGH PUBLIC TRANSPORT USE SCENARIO 4.0 N/A N/A High income employees 20% 100% / 0% Car/PT 70% / 30% Car/PT Middle income employees 40% 80% / 20% Car/PT 30% / 70% Car/PT Low income employees 40% 20% / 80% Car/PT 10% / 90% Car/PT Peak 1 hour / peak period 50% N/A N/A Visitors / Shoppers (AM peak 1 hour per 100 m 2 ) 2.0 N/A N/A The trip generation of employees is treated differently to that of visitors or shoppers. The employees are categorised according to income levels in order to facilitate the public transport scenarios based on the current modal split. It is further estimated that 50% of all the employee trips will be made during the AM and PM peak hour. The trip generation for the visitors / shoppers is provided only for the PM peak hour. The majority of retail outlets, particularly those at large shopping centres open at 09h00 which is after the weekday AM peak hour. In addition to this, the AM peak at a shopping centre is often experienced on a Saturday somewhere between 10h00 and 13h00. Whilst the AM peak hour experienced at a shopping centre on a Saturday is quite significant, the background traffic on the surrounding road network is significantly less than on a weekday and hence from a capacity perspective the PM peak hour during a weekday is usually the most intense. The Cornubia Transportation Study calculates person trips generated which should be converted into passenger car units (pcu). Table 13 uses the modal split and assumed occupancy and pcu values as provided in the Cornubia Transportation Study. 17

25 Table 13: Modal Split Generation Rates in the weekday AM and PM Peak Hour for the Proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park Element Retail (employee total) High Income Employees Middle Income Employees Low Income Employees Total Person Trips Person trips Private Vehicle Trips Occupancy Ratio Vehicle trips Person trips Public Transport Occupancy Ratio Vehicle trips N/A N/A persons per bus, bus pcu = Retail (shopper) TOTAL N/A N/A 102 Whilst a ratio of private vehicles to public transport was available for employees, the visitors / shoppers did not have a clear split. The modal split for shoppers can vary significantly based on the land use and income status. The public transport demand is based on the trip generation rates and modal split as per the Transportation Study for the Proposed Cornubia Development. The public transport trips are based on buses as the mode of travel as opposed to mini-bus taxis. This mode of travel is in line with the ethekwini Transport Authority s request, which aims at ensuring integration with their Integrated Transport Plan, as well as the proposed Integrated Public Transport Network Plans. The trips are calculated based on 50 seater buses as the mode of transport, with a passenger car equivalent (pce / pcu) of 2.5, and is discussed in detail in Section 10 of this report. Developments within ethekwini are being encouraged to incorporate public transport as a mode of choice. The planned Integrated Rapid Public Transport Network (IRPTN) is an example of the significant upgrades being made within the City and the current design has an east-west route running through the Cornubia Development. The has therefore taken this route into consideration by making allowance for public transport as a mode of transport. The visitors to the shopping centre that would utilise public transport in the PM peak hour are therefore estimated at 20%.Using the above trip generation rates, a 50: 50 directional split and the proposed GLA, the total volume of AM and PM peak hour traffic that the proposed Retail Park could potentially generate for each land use can be calculated as shown in Table Table 14: Generated Trips in the weekday AM and PM Peak Hour for the Proposed Element AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour In Out In Out High income employees Middle income employees Low income employees Retail (shopper) TOTAL

26 5. TRIP DISTRIBUTION The distribution of traffic generated by the proposed development is based on the existing traffic flows. There are four main origins / destinations which generate trips to / from the proposed Cornubia development. Access to the proposed has been introduced in a previous section and will link the following main locations: Flanders Drive East and West for vehicles from Mount Edgecombe East / West; M41 eastbound for vehicles from Phoenix; M41 westbound for vehicles from N2 north (Tongaat); M41 westbound via the N2/M41 Interchange for vehicles from Umhlanga, and SASSA Boulevard westbound via the N2/M41 Interchange for vehicles from the south (Durban). The distribution pattern was determined by comparing the existing traffic volumes from the three main locations within the vicinity of the study area. This method effectively establishes screen lines at the extent of the boundary. The generated vehicles can then be proportionally allocated as illustrated in Figure 10 for the AM peak period and Figure 11 for the PM peak period. The In and Out percentages refer to the proportion of trips attracted to (In) and from (Out) the proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park. Umhlanga In - 18% Out - 53% Phoenix In - 44% Out - 19% Retail Park Durban In - 18% Out - 0% Mount Edgecombe In - 20% Out - 18% Figure 10: AM Peak Hour Distribution Pattern of Development Generated Trips 19

27 During the AM peak hour, the highest existing traffic flow into the study area is from Phoenix (44%), and out towards Durban / Umhlanga (53%). This is to be expected due to the M41 which is a significant collector road providing access to the N2 north and south as well as the M4 further to the east. There is almost a proportional movement to and from Mount Edgecombe which represents the commuter traffic to from residential to places of employment. Umhlanga In - 18% Out - 52% Phoenix In - 28% Out - 22% Retail Park Durban In - 17% Out - 0% Mount Edgecombe In - 37% Out - 26% Figure 11: PM Peak Hour Distribution Pattern of Development Generated Trips During the PM peak hour, the highest existing traffic flow into the study area is from Mount Edgecombe (37%). Although this is slightly higher than the trips into the study area from Phoenix, there appears to be a balance between all three areas. Trips out of the study area are however highest towards Durban and Umhlanga (52%) which is similar to that of the AM peak period. It is further important to account for trip categories when considering categories such as shopping centres. There are three types of trips generated by shopping centres which are as follows: i. Primary trips. The visit to the shopping centre is the primary reason for the trip. A home - ii. iii. shopping centre home trip is an example of a primary trip. Pass-by trips. Motorists are intercepted without diversion by the shopping centre on their way from an origin to a primary destination, which is not a shopping centre. A work shopping centre home trip is an example of a pass-by trip. Diverted trips. Motorists are attracted from neighbouring streets in the vicinity of the shopping centre. These streets have no direct access to the centre and necessitate a diversion to reach the shopping centre. Primary and diverted trips can however be combined for this study as only localised traffic is observed. Diverted trips therefore act as new primary trips to and from the development. 20

28 The SA Trip Generation Rates Manual allocates the following percentages to each of the three trip categories Primary trips (42%), Diverted trips (23%) and Pass-by trips (35%). The proportion that this study will therefore use is as follow: Pass-by trips: 35% Primary and diverted trips: 65% The above proportions only apply to the PM peak hour for shoppers / visitors to a shopping centre as the AM peak hour occurs before the normal shopping centre business hours. Table 15: PM Peak Hour Pass-by and Primary Trips for the Proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park Land Use Primary and Diverted Trips Pass-by Trips In Out In Out Retail (shopper) The distribution of trips generated by the proposed Development is provided in Figure

29 Site 3 Site 2 (2) 2 (543) 326 (271) (2) 4 (4) 2 (2) (536) 276 (423) 218 (646) 337 Site 4a 39 (97) 74 (181) 169 (416) 54 (94) 101 (213) 537 (1005) 266 (509) SASA Boulevard 49 (89) 87 (157) 45 (82) 181 (328) Site 4b Site 1 M41 Key: 100 AM Peak (100) PM Peak Signalised Interserction Roundabout Figure 12: Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 22

30 6. TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS 6.1 Background Traffic The TIA for the proposed is compiled based on traffic counts conducted in July The construction of the proposed development is due for completion in 2015 and therefore the background traffic must be grown for a period of four years. The Department of Transport s document entitled Manual for Traffic Impact Studies (DoT, October 1995) provides a table with typical growth rates. This document recognises that the method for determining traffic growth is important, but also states that there are a number of factors which influence the traffic growth rate. The approach is therefore to classify the study area with a low, average, high or extremely high growth rate. The typical growth rates are indicated in Table 16. Table 16: Typical Traffic Growth Rates (Source: Manual for Traffic Impact Studies, DoT) CATEGORY YEARLY GROWTH RATE (%) Low 0% - 2.5% Average 2.5% - 3.5% High 3.5% - 6% Exceptionally High > 6% The background traffic growth is expected to be generated by other developments within the vicinity of the proposed site. In addition, the N2 / M41 interchange is currently being upgraded and this should therefore add much needed capacity during the peak periods which in turn is likely to result in traffic growth. Taking the above into consideration, the background traffic was predicted to have an annual growth rate of 2.5% up to 2015 (i.e.: for a period of four years). The existing traffic volumes have therefore been factored up by 2.5% per annum compounded for four years to a 2015 horizon year. The forecast 2015 background traffic is shown in Figure 13. The phasing of the overall Cornubia Development has been taken into account during the preparation of this report. Based on the estimated construction completion date for the proposed Development, approximately 50% of the Phase 1 (Industrial) Development will also be completed. As trip generation rates are available for this Development (Cornubia Phase 1 (Industrial), 24 October 2011), the impact of this development on the road network in the vicinity of the proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park is taken into account directly. It is important to note that due to the nature of the overall Cornubia development being that of mixed land uses, a large number (40%) of internal trips have been predicted in the Cornubia Transportation Study. The presence of internal trips often created when there is a mixture of residential development and employment opportunities means that these will not impact on the requirements for transportation systems and infrastructure outside the development area. Therefore for future background traffic analysis, although the Cornubia Development is significant, the impact on the surrounding network will be reduced due to these internal trips. 23

31 Site 3 Site 2 (331) 350 SASA Boulevard Site 4b Site 4a 926 (1098) Site 1 M41 Key: 100 AM Peak (100) PM Peak Signalised Interserction Roundabout Figure 13: 2015 Background AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 24

32 7. ASSESSMENT OF PHASED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING The proposed Development consist of five sites which will accommodate three retail tenants. It is envisaged that Site 1 and 2 will be occupied by the anchor tenant in advance of Sites 3, 4a and 4b. This section of the report therefore provides an indication of the phased development generated AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes. Table 17: Site 1 and 2 Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes AM Peak PM Peak Site No. In Out In Out Total Table 18: Site 3 and 4 Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Site No. AM Peak PM Peak In Out In Out a b Total As mentioned previously, the Development forms part of the greater Cornubia Framework Plan, with major road infrastructure links to the north, east and west. It should however be noted that the overall Cornubia Development is due to be constructed in phases, with Phase 1 due for completion in Currently a pilot project consisting of 486 housing units is under construction at the north-west boundary of the Cornubia Development. Neither the pilot site nor the industrial development will have an internal link to the proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park in the short-medium term. The Cornubia Development Framework has however identified a number of new upgrades to existing interchanges and access points into and out of Cornubia. The timing of such construction and / or upgrades is dependent upon development demands with the primary focus areas being: The existing N2 / M41 Mount Edgecombe interchange which SANRAL are in process of commencing with implementation; and The R102 / Northern Drive intersection which will be required for the completion of the Cornubia Phase 1 development. The major medium to long-term proposed road links will provide direct internal access to the proposed Development, thus increasing the number of internal trips (currently assumed to be zero due to lack of internal linkages). The proposed Cornubia Framework Plan makes provision for the following major internal road links: Dube East linking the Retail Park to the proposed Cornubia North Development; Cornubia Boulevard (east-west link) linking the Retail Park to the Industrial, Business Estate and Pilot Housing Developments; Proposed Dube West internal north-south link; 25

33 Proposed Cornubia Bridge linking Umhlanga Ridge Town Centre to Cornubia Boulevard; Proposed Blackburn Interchange and Blackburn Link north link providing direct access to Cornubia; and Proposed M41/Marshall Dam Interchange. This report provides a worst case scenario in terms of traffic impact in the short term as there is no internal traffic, minimal additional external road linkages and full development in one phase. This is not likely to be the case, and as such the proposed traffic volumes on the road network are considered as extreme. 26

34 8. TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED RETAIL AND BUSINESS PARK DEVELOPMENT FOR 2015 The traffic impact analysis of the proposed has been conducted based on the 2015 forecast weekday AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes on the surrounding road network plus the weekday AM and PM peak hour development generated traffic. These combined 2015 background traffic and Retail Park development generated AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes are shown in Figure 14. The analysis of the 2011 AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes indicates that the existing road infrastructure at two of the intersections already operate at capacity. This is evident in the Sidra analysis shown in Section 2. The Link Road / Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) intersections are currently operating at capacity. Upgrading the existing road infrastructure is required even without the additional development generated traffic volumes. This analysis can be found in Section 2 of this report. As per the Cornubia Development Framework Plan a number of new / upgraded access points are required and the development as a whole will require upgrading to a number of existing intersections in the surrounding region. The represents such an opportunity and whilst it has an impact on traffic in its own right, it forms part of the Cornubia Framework and will require at least portions of the relevant upgrades in the immediate surroundings to be implemented in the short term. Upgrades to the existing (at or near capacity) intersections together with the upgrade to the Flanders Drive/M41 Interchange are therefore required in the short term to enable the development of the Retail and Business Park. 27

35 Site 3 Site 2 (2) 2 (543) 326 (572) (2) 4 (4) 2 (2) (536) 276 (423) 218 (646) 337 Site 4a 1001 (1195) 74 (181) 169 (416) 54 (94) 101 (213) 537 (1005) 266 (509) SASA Boulevard 49 (89) 87 (157) 45 (82) 181 (328) Site 1 M (537) Site 4b Key: 100 AM Peak (100) PM Peak Signalised Interserction Roundabout Figure 14: 2015 Background plus Development Generated AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes for the Proposed Development 28

36 8.1 Intersection One - M41 and Link Road Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The proposed configuration of the intersection of the M41 and Link Road is illustrated in Figure 15. The left-turn movement (northbound) onto the M41 no longer exists due to the proposed M41 / Dube East / Flanders Drive Interchange. Figure 15: Future Layout of M41 and Link Road intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 19 and Table 20 respectively. Vehicle movements from the M41 left into Link Road are free flow and therefore LOS results are not provided. Table 19: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 South 1 L X X X X T X X X X Approach NA All Vehicles NA The volume of vehicles turning left from the M41 into Link Road has been reduced as a result of the direct access to Flanders Drive / Dube East provided by the proposed M41 / Dube East / Flanders Drive Interchange. 29

37 Table 20: Movement Summary M41 / Link Road PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 South 1 L X X X X T X X X X Approach NA All Vehicles NA The PM peak hour has fewer vehicles in total passing through the intersection than during the AM peak hour. 8.2 Intersection Two - Link Road and Flanders Drive Intersection The proposed configuration of the signalised intersection of Link Road and Flanders Drive is illustrated in Figure 16. Figure 16: Future Layout of Flanders Drive / Link Road Intersection The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 21 and Table 22 respectively. The Flanders Drive (northbound) movement requires an additional through lane to accommodate for the high volume of traffic in the PM peak hour. An additional exit lane on the north leg of Flanders Drive is required to accommodate for the additional approach lane on the south leg. 30

38 Table 21: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Flanders Drive Road South 2 T LOS B Approach LOS B East: Link Road 4 L LOS B R LOS B Approach LOS B North: Flanders Drive North 8 T LOS B Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B As a result of the proposed new access directly from the M41 into Flanders Drive, the right turn movement at this intersection is not expected to be high as it will only service a convenience store. Table 22: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Link Road - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Flanders Drive South 2 T LOS B Approach LOS B East: Link Road 4 L LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Flanders Drive North 8 T LOS A Approach LOS A All Vehicles LOS B The LOS for the PM peak hour at this intersection is similar to that for the AM peak hour. The through movement from the south on Flanders Drive has the highest volume of vehicles, but there is minimal delay due to the additional lane provided for this volume. 31

39 8.3 Intersection Three - M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The proposed configuration of the intersection of the M41 and Flanders Drive is illustrated in Figure 17. Figure 17: Future Layout of M41 and Flanders Drive Intersection (M41 on / off ramp) The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 23 and Table 24 respectively. This intersection consists of an on and off ramp to the M41, both of which operate as free flow movements. The significant change at this intersection from the existing layout is the addition of an extra on and off ramp lane, and subsequent widening of Flanders Drive to four lanes. Table 23: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h North: Flanders Drive 7 L X X X X Approach NA West: M41 West 10 L X X X X T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA The major movement remains the through movement from Phoenix east towards the N2. The on ramp from Flanders Drive to the M41 has an increased volume of vehicles as a result of the proposed new road network which has warranted two lanes. Due to the free flow nature of this intersection, a Sidra analysis does not accurately reflect the traffic conditions during the peak period. 32

40 Table 24: Movement Summary M41 / Flanders Drive - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h North: Flanders Drive 7 L X X X X Approach NA West: M41 West 10 L X X X X T LOS A Approach NA All Vehicles NA The eastbound through movement is however significantly less than in the AM peak hour which can be expected. The left turn movement from Flanders Drive onto the M41 eastbound has become the most significant movement during the PM peak hour. The high volumes of vehicles using the on ramp are likely to experience delays irrespective of the results demonstrated from the Sidra analysis. 8.4 Intersection Four - Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) Intersection The intersection of Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to / from M41) is illustrated in Figure 18. The proposed future layout of the intersection includes a signalised intersection and major capacity enhancements. Figure 18: Future Layout of Flanders Drive and Flanders Drive (to/ from M41) Intersection 33

41 AM Peak Hour LOS Diagram PM Peak Hour Traffic LOS Diagram Colour code based on Level of Service LOS A LOS B LOS C LOS D LOS E LOS F Continuous SIDRA Standard Delay Model used. The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 25 and Table 26 respectively. The AM and PM Peak hour Traffic Volume LOS diagrams are provided above. Table 25: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov Turn Demand HV Deg. Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average ID Flow Satn Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 Link 1 L LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS C East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS A T LOS A Approach LOS A West: Flanders Drive 11 T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS C All Vehicles LOS B The approach from the east has the highest volume of vehicles, with the left turn onto the M41 being the most significant. In order to accommodate this movement, two left turn lanes have been provided which result in minimal delays (8.8 seconds) and a LOS A. The approach from the M41 has adequate lane configuration to ensure this leg does not back up onto the M41. The right turn movement from Flanders Drive (west approach) towards the M41 on ramp experiences the greatest delay (29.2 seconds), however two right turn lanes have been provided to maximise the flow of this movement. The overall service level for this signalised intersection in the AM peak hour is LOS B. 34

42 Table 26: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) - PM Peak (2015) plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: M41 Link 1 L LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS C East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS A T LOS A Approach LOS A West: Flanders Drive 11 T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B The approach from the east continues to have the highest volume of vehicles, with the left turn movement towards the M41 on ramp being the most significant. The approach from the M41 has adequate lane configuration to ensure this leg does not back up onto the M41. The overall service level for this signalised intersection in the PM peak hour is LOS B. 8.5 Dube East / SASA Boulevard Intersection The intersection of Dube East and SASA Boulevard is illustrated in Figure 19 and is new. Due to the volume of vehicles using this intersection it is proposed that this intersection be signalised. Figure 19: Future Layout of Dube East / SASA Boulevard Intersection The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 27 and Table 28 respectively. The AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes LOS Diagrams are provided below. Travel along Dube East in a northbound direction past the Dube East / SASA 35

43 Boulevard intersection does not link into a road network at this stage; however it will form an important link into the greater Cornubia road network in future. Construction of this leg of the intersection is advised at this stage to provide secondary access to sites 2 and 3 of the Cornubia Retail and Business Park. AM Peak Hour LOS diagram PM Peak Hour LOS diagram Table 27: Movement Summary Dube East / SASA Blvd - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Dube East 1 L LOS A T LOS C R LOS C Approach LOS B East: SASA Blvd 4 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A North: Dube East 7 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B West: SASA Blvd 10 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B The left turn movement from Dube East into SASA Boulevard has the highest demand. In order to cater for this movement, two left turn lanes have been proposed. The right turn movement from Dube East into SASA Boulevard has the largest delay (29.0 seconds) but operates at a LOS C with an estimated queue buildup of four vehicles in the AM peak hour. This intersection is operating at an overall service level of LOS B in the AM peak hour. 36

44 Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Dube East 1 L LOS A T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B East: SASA Blvd 4 L LOS A T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Dube East 7 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS B West: SASA Blvd 10 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B Table 28: Movement Summary Dube East / SASA Blvd - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) The left turn movement from Dube East into SASA Boulevard is again the highest demand. The two left turn lanes that are proposed are able to handle this volume but it should be noted that the Sidra analysis is not able to accurately reflect the capacity challenges of this movement but it can be identified and assessed in the micro-simulation model. The right turn movement from Dube East into SASA Boulevard experiences less delay than in the AM peak hour. This intersection is operating at an overall service level of LOS B in the PM peak hour. 8.6 SASA Boulevard Roundabout Access The layout of the SASA Boulevard Roundabout which provides access to Site 1 and Site 2 of the proposed development is displayed in Figure 20. It should be noted that the analysis of roundabouts in Sidra are not always a true reflection of actual or expected conditions on site and therefore micro-simulation modelling has been completed to assess the LOS for these roundabouts. 37

45 Figure 20: Future Layout of SASSA Boulevard Roundabout A The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 29 and Table 30 respectively. The roundabout is currently located at the limit of road network construction but will in future provide a link to further roads within the overall Cornubia development. As such the east approach from SASA Boulevard will not have traffic and the small volumes shown in the analysis below is in order to allow the simulation to run. Table 29: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout A - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: To Site 2 1 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A East: SASA Blvd 4 L LOS A T LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A North: To Site 1 7 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS B West: SASA Blvd 10 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A All Vehicles LOS A

46 As the roundabout is located away from the main thoroughfare, there will only be development generated traffic using the roundabout at this stage. All movements operate at LOS B or better. The proposed lane configuration is therefore sufficient in the AM peak hour to accommodate all movements with ample capacity for future traffic growth. Table 30: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout A - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: To Site 2 1 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A East: SASA Blvd 4 L LOS B R LOS B Approach LOS B North: To Site 1 7 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS B West: SASA Blvd 10 L LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS A All Vehicles LOS B AM Peak Hour LOS Diagram PM Peak Hour LOS Diagram All movements operate at LOS B or better. The proposed lane configuration is therefore sufficient in the PM peak hour to accommodate all movements with ample capacity for future traffic growth. The AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volume LOS Diagrams are provided above. The layout of the SASA Boulevard Roundabout B which provides access to Sites 3, 4a and 4b of the proposed development is displayed in Figure 21. Each approach makes provision for two lanes, which share the through movement and left or right turn movements. The through movements from Sites 3, 4a and 4b and vice versa have been assumed as zero (no internal trips) for the purpose of analysis. 39

47 8.7 SASA Boulevard / Flanders Drive and Access Road The access to sites 3, 4a, 4b and the existing warehouse / industrial operation (located on Flanders Drive) is provided below. Figure 21: SASA Blvd / Access Road The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 31 and Table 32 respectively. In addition to providing access to Sites 3, 4a and 4b, the intersection will provide access to the existing operations on Flanders Drive. Table 31: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout B - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Access Road 1 L LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS C East: SASSA Blvd 4 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Site 3 7 L LOS C R LOS C Approach LOS C West: SASSA Blvd 10 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B

48 In the AM peak, the through movement from the SASA Boulevard east approach is the most significant. This movement contains all traffic that comes from Mount Edgecombe and needs to access the M41 to travel east towards Umhlanga / Durban. All movements operate at a LOS C or better. The proposed lane configuration is therefore sufficient in the AM peak hour to accommodate all movements. Table 32: Movement Summary SASA Roundabout B - PM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Access Road 1 L LOS C R LOS C Approach LOS C East: SASSA Blvd 4 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Site 3 7 L LOS C R LOS C Approach LOS C West: SASSA Blvd 10 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B AM Peak Hour LOS Diagram PM Peak Hour LOS Diagram In the PM peak, the through movement from the SASA Boulevard east approach remains the most significant. Once again, this high volume of vehicles is as a result of the traffic flow from Mount Edgecombe towards Umhlanga. The overall service level of this intersection in the PM peak hour is LOS B. The AM and PM peak Hour Traffic Volume LOS Diagram are provided above. The proposed lane configuration is therefore sufficient in the PM peak hour to accommodate all movements with ample capacity for future traffic growth. 41

49 Figure 22: Future Layout of Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road The AM and PM peak hours have been analysed in Sidra and the results are provided in Table 33 and Table 34 respectively. The intersection is currently under stop control with Flanders Drive being the major road. A warrant for traffic signals was undertaken and it was found that the intersection warrants the needs for traffic signals. A shared slip lane is required on the north approach and an additional 100m right-turn lane on the south approach. The intersection operates at a LOS B in both the AM and PM peak hours. Table 33: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - AM Peak (2015 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Siphosethu Road 1 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS B East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Siphosethu Road 7 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS B Approach LOS C West: Flanders Drive 10 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS C

50 Table 34: Movement Summary Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road - PM Peak (2014 plus development generated) Movement Performance - Vehicles Mov ID Turn Demand HV Deg. Satn Average Level of 95% Back of Queue Prop. Effective Average Flow Delay Service Vehicles Distance Queued Stop Rate Speed veh/h % v/c sec veh m per veh km/h South: Siphosethu Road 1 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS C Approach LOS B East: Flanders Drive 4 L LOS C T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B North: Siphosethu Road 7 L LOS B T LOS A R LOS B Approach LOS B West: Flanders Drive 10 L LOS B T LOS B R LOS C Approach LOS B All Vehicles LOS B

51 8.8 Proposed M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Interchange The existing road infrastructure accessing the M41, in the vicinity of the proposed Retail park development site, is already operating at capacity. Direct access to and from the M41 into Flanders Drive / Dube East is required in order to accommodate both the short term and long term development generated as well as background traffic volumes. The M41 / Flanders Drive Interchange was initially planned to be upgraded to a conventional diamond interchange at which time the existing access to the M41 (Umhlanga bound) would be closed. Due to the N2 / M41 Interchange upgrade, the on-ramp from the M41 onto the N2 northbound will have to be tested by combining the existing 2040 model developed for the interchange upgrade with the micro simulation model developed for this development more details are given on this in the following section. A conventional diamond interchange was no longer feasible due to spacing constraints between on and off ramps as previously planned it was necessary to consider alternatives which could cater for the background traffic, development generated and ultimate scenarios. The solutions have been tested in conjunction with the interchange development to obtain an ultimate integrated solution. A number of possible geometric layouts were considered and the preferred option is illustrated in Figure 23, offering the most effective balance between cost and level of service: Free-flow Partial Parclo Layout(M41 off-ramp) M41 (northbound) on-ramp off Flanders Drive with a stop-control where the M41 onramp meets Flanders Drive / Dube East M41 free-flow on-ramp (southbound) off Dube East The traffic conditions at these ramps have been assessed and detailed information on LOS is provided. 44

52 Figure 23: M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Proposed Layout 45

53 Figure 24: AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Figure 25: Traffic Road Layout - Partial Parclo Both options put forward for the proposed M41 / Flanders Drive Interchange operate at acceptable Levels of Service. The signalised partial parclo does however provide slightly better service levels and is expected to have fewer delays. The partial parclo is further expected to have a greater footprint and therefore be more expensive than the half diamond option. The partial parclo will also require the removal of a significant number of trees to enable the construction of the M41 off-ramp. 46

54 9. ANALYSIS OF THE 2040 TRAFFIC VOLUMES The 2040 AM peak hour traffic volumes for the Cornubia Development were obtained from Dave McFarlane and Associates and are illustrated in Figure 26. The predicted 2040 traffic volumes were assessed in terms of the proposed intersection upgrades. Figure 26: 2040 AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes The 2040 AM peak hour traffic volumes are lower than the 2014 Background plus Retail and Business Park Development Generated volumes. This reduction is in line with the Proposed Cornubia Development Transportation Study; which allows for a 40% reduction of trips generated by Cornubia itself (internal trips) as these do not impact on the requirements for transportation systems and infrastructure outside the development area. The ultimate road network provides for more access points to the proposed Cornubia Development and hence the traffic is able to distribute itself across all routes, therefore minimising demand. The proposed intersection upgrades would therefore be able to accommodate the predicted 2040 traffic volumes without requiring additional upgrading. 47

55 10. VISSIM MICRO SIMULATION MODEL When analysing multiple intersections it is not possible to consider these in isolation only (as per Sidra) as one intersection can impact on both upstream and downstream traffic flows. A micro-simulation model is therefore required in order to assess the traffic flow throughout the system / network. VISSIM has been used to simulate the proposed development. VISSIM is a microscopic, time step and behaviour based simulation model developed to model urban traffic and public transport operations. The program uses stochastic models controlled by routing decisions to determine the flow of traffic throughout the network. Existing traffic counts were used on each critical intersection so that the model can accurately represent the real life scenario, which can then be used for further investigation to optimise routes and accommodate future developments with increases in traffic. Various models have been created to determine the difference between alternate road network upgrades. Information on the micro-simulation modelling processes can be found in Annexure C Vissim Micro-simulation modelling. There are a number of software packages available to model traffic scenarios. In order to facilitate the use of the information determined in the above assessment, the origin destination matrix (OD matrix) is provided in Table 35 and is illustrated in Figure

56 Figure 27: Origin-Destination DiagramTable 35: Final OD Matrix for AM Peak Hour of Proposed 49

57 Table 35: Final OD Matrix for AM Peak Hour of Proposed AM Peak PM Peak Table 36: Final OD Matrix for PM Peak Hour of Proposed The 2015 background plus development generated PM peak hour traffic volumes were modelled in VISSIM. The PM peak hour internal traffic volumes are higher than those of the AM peak hour traffic volumes. The traffic volumes travelling south bound on the M41 are greater in the AM peak hour, but do not impact the internal operation of the model. The PM peak hour is therefore considered as the worst case scenario in terms of the developments internal road network. The Mt Edgecombe interchange upgrade was initiated by SANRAL in conjunction with the upgrade of Section 26 of National Road 2. The final proposal was established by testing various geometric layouts with various traffic projection profiles. The traffic projections were developed with direct input from the following sources: Mikros Traffic Monitoring (Pty) Ltd 12 hour manual counts, SANRAL - Comprehensive Traffic Observation Stations (CTO s), ethekwini Transport Authority EMME 2 model, and Tongaat Hulett Developments Transportation Study. 50

58 The final model developed is referred to as Model F7 which refers to the geometric layout F combined with traffic projection 7. Full details of the development of this model and the various calibration techniques are defined in the following report: CONTRACT NRA N /1 CONSULTING ENGINEERING SERVICES FOR THE UPGRADING OF NATIONAL ROUTE 2 SECTION 26 FROM MT EDGECOMBE INTERCHANGE (KM 2.0) TO TONGAAT TOLL PLAZA (KM 21.0) TRAFFIC INVESTIGATION REPORT The final model was based on the AM peak period as the AM peak is internationally recognised as the heaviest traffic volumes experienced on a collector road. The AM peak period includes work based trips, school based trips and general commuter based trips, which constitutes ideal design volumes. Despite the proposed development experiencing high traffic volumes in the afternoon peak within the development, the significant integration of this traffic into the existing road network will occur during the morning peak. The AM model developed for the new development has been integrated into the proposed Mt Edgecombe microsimulation model. The key aspects analysed in this exercise are the spacing between the new N2 / M41 Interchange and the proposed location of the new ramps on the Dube East / M41 Interchange. The analysis was conducted by measuring the density of vehicles per kilometre in the merging / diverging lanes. The LOS evaluation scale used is detailed in Table 37. Table 37 : LOS weaving segments LOS Weaving section on Multilane Highway Density (pc/km/lane) A 0 6 B >6 12 C >12 17 D >17 22 E >22 F Demand exceeds capacity 51

59 Figure 28: Zone Representation The two zones analysed are depicted in Figure 28. The zones affect the M41 off-ramp into Link Road and the proposed on-ramp from Dube East onto the M41 southbound. A lane-by-lane analysis has been conducted and the results are discussed. The lanes are numbered from right to left in the direction of travel. Zone 1 indicated the heaviest vehicle density in lane 3 which is directly associated with the slip lanes. Lane 3 slips directly onto the proposed signalised partial parclo ramp and lanes 3 and 4 are associated with the slip lane that feeds onto Link Road. A detailed image is presented in Figure 29. Figure 29: Zone 1 Lane Details 52

60 Zone 2 presents the highest densities in lanes 2 and 3. Lane 4 has the lowest density as the lane merges, causing vehicles to manoeuvre into lane 3. The density in lane 2 is directly associated with the previous on-ramp from Flanders Drive. The densities presented are within acceptable limits. Detailed lane configuration is presented in Figure 30. Figure 30: Zone 2 Lane Detail 53

61 11. PUBLIC TRANSPORT ANALYSIS Public Transport is discussed in various sections of the report. The purpose of this section is to highlight key aspects of Public Transport Supply and Demand which should be taken into consideration when preparing further plans for the proposed development. The public transport demand is based on the trip generation rates and modal split as per the Transportation Study for the Proposed Cornubia Development. The trips are calculated based on 50 seater buses as the mode of transport, with a passenger car equivalent (pce / pcu) of 2.5. The development generated public transport trips are provided in Table 38. Table 38: Development generated Public Transport (bus) Trips Element GLA (m 2 ) Person trips Public Transport Occupancy Ratio Vehicle trips Retail (employee total) N/A 68 High income employees N/A 0 0 Middle income employees N/A persons per 14 bus, bus pcu = Low income employees N/A Retail (shopper) TOTAL 2036 N/A 102 Using the above trip generation rates, a 50: 50 directional split and the proposed GLA, the total volume of AM and PM peak hour traffic that the proposed Retail Park could potentially generate for each land use can be calculated as shown in Table 39. Table 39: Development Generated AM and PM peak hour public transport trips Element AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour In Out In Out High income employees Middle income employees Low income employees Retail (shopper) TOTAL The Cornubia Transportation Study prepared by Goba and DMA, states The existing public transport system is primarily a road-based public transport system of bus and taxi routes which provide good service coverage; many using the same roads in the network. Recent restructuring proposals being implemented for the Remant Alton (Durban Transport) bus routes are addressing the insufficient use of these two modes by integrating the bus and taxi services in some areas to operate in a more service efficient manner. This initiative will continue into the future in terms of pending development of a system of rapid public transport corridors. As this is a long to medium term goal, the current modal split has been accommodated within this traffic impact assessment for the proposed development. The Cornubia Transportation Study confirms this by stating: It is understood that the High Public Transport usage scenario would only be realised in the medium to long term (i.e. post 54

62 2016) as it would take time, political commitment and significant investment to implement public transport infrastructure that would be of the standard to bring about a shift in modal split towards the above mentioned targets. Within each of the developments it is important to provide adequate parking for buses as well as minibus-taxis. In addition to this, ethekwini s Integrated Rapid Public Transport network (IRPTN) will have a corridor that runs through the Cornubia development. The IRPTN is currently in the design phase and all possible attempts should be made to ensure integration with the IRPTN in order to maximise ridership and also promote the vision of Public Transport as a mode of choice. There is likely to be considerable growth in the Cornubia and Umhlanga new town centre areas but the rates of growth are uncertain and the situation should be monitored on a regular basis. Given the extent of development planned for the north it is critical that a detailed public transport plan be developed for this area to integrate fully with the proposed restructured public transport system. 55

63 12. PEDESTRIAN IMPACT ANALYSIS As a result of the overall Cornubia Development containing mixed land uses, and therefore the assumption or estimate made in the Cornubia Transportation Study that 40% of trips generated will be internal there is potential for non-motorised transport (NMT) within the development. It should however be noted that due to the distance from external residential areas, the majority of commuters will access the proposed developments by motor vehicle or public transport particularly in the short term. The should make allowance for NMT access to the major Public Transport / IRPTN network, as well as consider the provision of raised sidewalks (of at least 1.8m wide) between the various sites within the proposed Cornubia Retail and Business Park. Pedestrian movements within the development should be carefully planned to ensure a safe and efficient working of the proposed development. 56

64 13. ROAD SAFETY Road traffic safety refers to methods and measures for reducing the risk of a person using the road network being killed or seriously injured. Safe road design is about providing a road environment which ensures vehicle speeds will be within the human tolerances for serious injury and death wherever conflict points exist. The period has further been proclaimed as the Decade of Action for Road Safety by the United Nations General Assembly, with a goal to stabilize and then reduce the forecast level of road traffic fatalities around the world. It is therefore important for the Cornubia development as a whole to implement a safe road environment which takes into account and attempts to minimise conflict areas through good design principles and a holistic approach to the road environment (people, cars, buses and bicycles) As the proposed is a new development, the design of the internal road network can utilise best practice design standards to maximise road safety. The largest area of concern in terms of road safety is a change to the existing road network in this case at the M41 / Flanders Drive Interchange. During construction and for a temporary period thereafter, advanced warning should be provided to advise motorists that the road layout has be changed. 57

65 14. CONCLUSION Based on the information discussed in this report, the following conclusions can be made: Tongaat Hulett (Pty) Ltd proposes a Retail Park Development consisting of m 2 of Gross Leasable Area. The existing M41 / Link Road left-off / left-on ramp was analysed with existing traffic flows and it was found that it operates well in isolation. The Link Road / Flanders Drive intersection, east approach (from the M41) operates at a LOS F under existing conditions. The existing M41 / Flanders Drive left-off / left-on ramp was also analysed with existing traffic flows and it was found that this intersection too operated well in isolation. The Flanders Drive / M41 south approach (from the M41) operates at a LOS F. Trip generation calculations for the proposed development showed that it will generate 2014 external vehicle trips in the morning peak hour and 3858 external vehicle trips in the afternoon peak hour, with a 50: 50 directional split per peak hour. The retail park generates 68 public transport bus trips in the morning peak hour and 102 public transport bus trips in the afternoon peak hour for middle and low income users. The existing traffic flows in the base year (2011), were escalated to the target year 2015 by 2, 5% per annum and added to the flows generated by the development. The combined flows were assigned to the 2015 proposed road network. Cognisance was taken of the Proposed Cornubia Development future planning initiatives and it was considered that these could be accommodated in the future and that they would be beneficial to the development. It is envisaged that occupation of the development will be in a phased approach. The proposed Development road infrastructure requirements were modelled in VISSIM taking into consideration the proposed Mt Edgecombe Interchange. The two models were merged to establish the integration and impact in terms of LOS and weaving. The proposed development is not expected to impact negatively on road safety or pedestrian movements. 58

66 15. RECOMMENDATIONS It is recommended that the proposed Development be approved in terms of the expected traffic impact of the development which is in line with the overall Cornubia Development Framework Plan and Transportation Study. The technical details for a number of specific upgrades to existing intersections have been confirmed and include the following: External Road Network The external road network was analysed for both the existing traffic flows and the 2015 background plus development generated traffic volumes. The upgrade requirements for the external road network are listed below: Flanders Drive / Link Road Intersection Upgrade Requirements Flanders Drive Northbound Approach: Flanders Drive Southbound Approach: Link Road: Signalised Intersection - additional straight lane - additional exit lane - right- turn slip lane 59

67 M41 / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) Flanders Drive (to / from M41): M41 west: M41 east: -additional left- turn / on-ramp lane -additional 200m left-turn / off-ramp lane -additional 150m taper lane Flanders Drive / Flanders Drive (to / from M41) / Loading Access / No Name Road (Signalised Intersection) Flanders Drive (to / from M41) apparoach: Flanders Drive eastbound approach: Flanders Drive westbound approach: -two right-turn lanes -50m left turn slip lane -two additional exit lanes -100m left-turn continuous slip lane -dedicated left-turn slip lane under yield condition -shared straight and right-turn lane -70 m right-turn lane 60

68 Flanders Drive / Siphosethu Road (Signalised Intersection) Siphosethu Road northbound approach: Siphosethu Road southbound approach: Flanders Drive eastbound approach: Flanders Drive westbound approach: 15.2 Internal Road Network Layout: -shared straight and left-turn lane -50m right-turn lane -shared straight and left-turn lane -50m right-turn lane -shared straight and left-turn lane -50m right-turn lane -shared straight and left-turn lane -50m right-turn lane Dube East / SASA Boulevard The proposed internal road network has been reviewed, assessed and analysed in both SIDRA and VISSIM. 61

69 15.3 M41 / Flanders Drive / Dube East Interchange The preferred option has been analysed in Sidra and modelled in VISSIM integrating the Mt Edgecombe Interchange upgrades. The proposed option generates an acceptable level of service. A Traffic Road Layout (TRL) is required to identify the amount of space required outside of the existing road reserves. Based on the expected traffic flow at this interchange, the signalised partial parclo option would provide a better level of service and less delay for each movement. It is however recommended that a cost comparison in terms of land required, environmental impact and construction cost be prepared to further assess whether the improved service level can justify the increased cost. 62

70 Annexure A1 Proposed Cornubia Development Framework 1

71 Annexure A2 Proposed Cornubia Development Road Network Plan 2

72 Annexure B Traffic Counts TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS CLIENT: VELA VKE SITE: INTERSECTION OF M41 AND LINK ROAD (1) DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON THURSDAY 21 JULY 2011 UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH EAST TOTAL NAME LINK ROAD M41 MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LEFT TURN STRAIGHT ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH EAST TOTAL NAME LINK ROAD M41 MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LEFT TURN STRAIGHT ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

73 TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS CLIENT: SITE: VELA VKE INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS DRIVE AND LINK ROAD DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON THURSDAY 21 JULY 2011 UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LINK ROAD STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LINK ROAD STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL AM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

74 AM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS 16:30-16: :45-17: CLIENT: VELA VKE 17:00-17: :15-17: SITE: INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS DRIVE AND LINK ROAD 17:30-17: :45-18: DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON THURSDAY 21 JULY 2011 TOTAL UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

75 TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS CLIENT: VELA VKE SITE: INTERSECTION OF M41 AND FLANDERS DRIVE (4) DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON THURSDAY 21 JULY 2011 UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH WEST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE M41 MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LEFT TURN STRAIGHT ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH WEST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE M41 MOVEMENT LEFT TURN LEFT TURN STRAIGHT ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

76 TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS CLIENT: SITE: VELA VKE INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS DRIVE AND GOLF COURSE DRIVE DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON THURSDAY 21 JULY 2011 UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: TRAFFIC 0 0SURVEY 0 ANALYSIS :45-17: CLIENT: 17:00-17:15 VELA 0 VKE :15-17: SITE: 17:30-17:45 INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS 0 0 DRIVE 0 AND 0 GOLF 0 COURSE 0 0DRIVE :45-18: DATE: TOTAL PEAK 0 HOUR 0 COUNT 0 0ON THURSDAY JULY UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN GOLF COURSE DRIVE (M41 OFF RAMP) STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME GOLF COURSE DRIVE (M41 OFF RAMP) MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

77 AM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS 16:30-16: :45-17: CLIENT: VELA VKE 17:00-17: :15-17: SITE: INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS DRIVE AND GOLF COURSE DRIVE 17:30-17: :45-18: DATE: TOTAL 1045 PEAK HOUR 32 COUNT 2 8 ON THURSDAY JULY UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

78 TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS CLIENT: SITE: VELA VKE INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS DRIVE AND SIPHOSETHU ROAD DATE: PEAK HOUR COUNT ON WEDNESDAY 20 JULY 2011 UNITS: CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN SIPHOSETHU ROAD STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM NORTH TOTAL NAME SIPHOSETHU ROAD MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: TRAFFIC 9 9SURVEY 1 ANALYSIS :30-16: CLIENT: 16:45-17:00 VELA 82 VKE :00-17: SITE: 17:15-17:30 INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS 0 38 DRIVE 9 AND 2 SIPHOSETHU 1 0 ROAD :30-17: DATE: 17:45-18:00 PEAK 24 HOUR 2 COUNT 0 1ON WEDNESDAY JULY UNITS: TOTAL CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN SIPHOSETHU ROAD STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM SOUTH TOTAL NAME SIPHOSETHU ROAD MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

79 AM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM EAST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: TRAFFIC 26 1SURVEY 1 ANALYSIS :30-16: CLIENT: 16:45-17:00 VELA 11 VKE :00-17: SITE: 17:15-17:30 INTERSECTION OF FLANDERS 0 15 DRIVE 47 AND 0 SIPHOSETHU 1 0 ROAD :30-17: DATE: 17:45-18:00 PEAK 9 HOUR 0 COUNT 1 0ON WEDNESDAY JULY UNITS: TOTAL CLASSIFIED AM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME MOVEMENT LEFT TURN FLANDERS DRIVE STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 06:00-06: :15-06: :30-06: :45-07: :00-07: :15-07: :30-07: :45-08: TOTAL PM PEAK APPROACH FROM WEST TOTAL NAME FLANDERS DRIVE MOVEMENT LEFT TURN STRAIGHT RIGHT TURN ALL TIME C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL C T H B TOTAL MOVEMENTS 16:00-16: :15-16: :30-16: :45-17: :00-17: :15-17: :30-17: :45-18: TOTAL

80 Annexure C Vissim Micro-Simulation Modelling Methodology The data gathered though traffic counts, traffic lights timings and flow distributions were all used to build the micro simulation model. The accuracy of this information is vital as it determines the accuracy of the status quo model. A scaled plan layout is used to map out the network and illustrate the roads, determine the number of lanes and turning sequences. Each intersection was modelled using a combination of SIDRA and the VISSIM model. This includes the flow rates of vehicles from each link in each direction (otherwise referred to as routing decisions), types of intersection (i.e. 4-way stops, yield, slip lanes and traffic lights) and traffic light timings. Traffic inputs are used to generate vehicles on the outskirts of the models. As this traffic moves thought the network it is divided up into the network on a percentage basis, which has been calculated from the routing decisions. The vehicles are each modelled individually and observe other vehicles on the road, they also see other vehicles approaching an intersection and react according to the type of intersection placed on its route. Through simulating the intersections and traffic lights, as they would be in reality, the model allows vehicles to queue and wait their turn resulting in possible traffic congestion at poorly planned intersections, thus simulating the real occurrence. VISSIM Modelling The VISSIM model has a number of parameters that have to be set for the type of driving behaviour that the vehicles will use, while travelling through the network. Other inputs are: the ratio of cars, trucks, buses and taxis speed limits that the vehicles have to abide by sight distance as to how far the driver looks ahead and behind his vehicle acceleration and deceleration profiles routing movements traffic light configurations what is done by a vehicle when it approaches an orange traffic light right of way movements driver behaviour profiles for each vehicle type temporary lack of attention time vehicle types and classes lane position and orientation traffic signal setting and phases stop lines and yield line data collection points (otherwise referred to as nodes) 11

81 Some of these elements are explained in more detail later. There are also additions to the network that have no effect on the actual simulation of the network and are only for cosmetic purposes, some of these include: Road markings (i.e. lane lines, turning arrows, stop lines, etc.) Colour and type of cars represented in the network. 3D elements (i.e. buildings, traffic signal lights, trees, grass, etc.) A number of the most important inputs are described in further detail below. Speed and acceleration distribution Figure 31: Speed distribution profile Each vehicle that is used in the network has a speed distribution allocated to it. This provides a band over which the vehicles speed will oscillate to more accurately represent the human error that is present while people are driving. For example, cars that are travelling in the 60 km/h zone will have a band of 30km/h (i.e. a minimum of 50km/h and a maximum 80km/h). While the model is running the speed of such a car, it will be anywhere within that band of 30km/h. A similar principle is used when a car is accelerating to its desired speed. Reduction in speed areas While the vehicles travel through the network, they are allocated a desired speed, which they try to maintain without causing a collision. The vehicle however does not know to slow down when approaching a non-obstructed corner and thus would be cornering at around 60km/h. For this reason reduction speed bands are put in place so that the vehicle knows what speed it would be able to take that corner at. These reduced speed areas are defined for all the vehicle classes as cars, are substantially faster around corners than busses and trucks. The vehicle will register that there is a reduced speed area ahead and decelerate so that when it crosses the band it will be travelling at the desired speed. Once it has completed the predefined area, the vehicle will accelerate to its desired speed once again. The reduced speeds for the model are as follows: 12

82 Table 40: Reduction in Speeds Vehicle Corners (km/h) Circles (km/h) Cars 40 (max45) 45 (max50) Taxis 40 (max 45) 45 (max 50) Buses 20 (max30) 30 (max 35) Trucks 20 (max 30) 30 (max 35) The reduced speed areas are calculated based on an equation which defines the radius of the corner that the vehicle will have to take. An average radius is determined for the majority of the corners in the network and averaged, to obtain a relatively accurate broad value to be applied to all intersections. V = Velocity (m.s -1 ) R = Radius (m) Routing Routing is used as a way of distributing the cars proportionally though the network. The accuracy of this information is very important as it is the base on which the model functions. The traffic counts done on each intersection are used here to distribute the cars evenly between the movements. The program uses a Poisson distribution to allocate the cars though each movement. This allows an even distribution of cars in each movement through the predefined period. Below is a visual example of how a routing decision works. In the figure the red line at the start of the yellow indicates the start of the routing decision. Once the car crosses this line it is told which direction it will be going in. It will continue in the direction allocated to it until it crosses the green line at the end of the yellow band. The vehicle thus has to make the appropriate decisions within that area as to which lane it has to be in to make the prescribed movement. On sections of road where there are multiple roads entering a main stream of traffic, the routes are combined to allow the cars to make their lane selection prior to the intersection to help prevent vehicles from trying to change lanes at the last minute. The program has a default function that removes vehicles from the system if they wait to change lanes for more than 30sec. This is done as in reality other cars might let the person in, while in the model unless the cars in the other lane slow down enough to observe the waiting car, they will not let him in. 13

83 Traffic signals Traffic signals are done in an add-on program called VISSIG and are all modelled as fixed time traffic lights. The light timings for the status quo model are taken from the current traffic lights used in the network. These timings currently have an offset that was done in a previous traffic study. The signal timings used in the other models are all set at a 90-second cycle time and all start at a different times within the 90-second cycle. The diagram below indicates the program used to set the traffic light timings. Each signal group represents an alternate approach of a turning movement. Where the green bands overlap indicated where movements are green simultaneously. The standard throughout the new signal timings is a 3-second yellow time and 2-second all red cycle, between all light changes. Figure 32: Visual example of traffic light offsets Right of way movements When modelling an intersection, the lanes that clash have to be given a movement that has priority over other movements. The diagram shows how movements that clash are represented; the green lines are given right of way over the red movement. When a vehicle approaches such a movement, it will assess the vehicle on the opposing movements and determine how fast the vehicle is moving and whether it has enough time to cross without causing a collision. A four-way stop is modelled using a sequence of priority movements put in place to allow each approach its desired movement. In order to obtain an equal distribution amongst the approaches, the movement to the right of each approach has right of way. This creates a circular effect on the intersection, which works quite well in simulating a realistic four-way stop. 14