2 Introduction and Background The Brent Spence Bridge on I-71/75 across the Ohio River is arguably the single most important piece of transportation infrastructure the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana (OKI) region. It is also one of the most congested. The bridge connecting Covington, Kentucky with Cincinnati, Ohio opened in It was designed to carry 80,000 vehicles per day; currently, the bridge carries more than 150,000 vehicles daily and is projected to carry 200,000 each day by High traffic volumes generally relate to higher numbers of crashes and the Brent Spence Bridge is no exception. While the bridge is structurally sound it is functionally obsolete. Heavy congestion and frequent accidents on the bridge routinely gridlock traffic on two major interstates. The bridge not only carries traffic through the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky area, it is a vital link for north-south commerce between Michigan and Florida. The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) and the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) have begun the process to evaluate alternatives for replacing the bridge. The bridge replacement project is currently funded through the right of way acquisition. Future funding will go to the final design and construction phases. KYTC and ODOT anticipate selecting a preferred alternative in the fall of The Brent Spence Bridge is typical of the cantilever truss design, with a main span of feet and approach spans each measuring 453 feet. It opened in November 1963 with its two decks striped for three lanes each. In 1986 the emergency shoulders were eliminated and the decks were restriped for four 11-foot lanes in each direction from three 12-foot lanes to accommodate more traffic. Study Purpose On October 1, 2007 OKI received a request from the Honorable Butch Callery, mayor of the City of Covington to study the effects of banning trucks from using the Brent Spence (I-71/75) Bridge during the morning and afternoon rush hours. Specifically, this report investigates the potential for improving safety on the Brent Spence (I-71/75) Bridge by estimating the impacts of banning large trucks that originate outside the I-275 beltway and have no stops within the beltway from traveling on I-71/75 during the morning (6:00 AM 9:00 AM) and afternoon (3:00 PM 6:00 PM) weekday peak periods. Figure 1 on the following page depicts the study area.
3 Methodology Travel Patterns The impact of the truck ban on safety was measured by estimating the net change of severe crashes on the study area freeway system by first tracking the estimated changes in truck travel patterns at representative locations with and without a truck ban during peak periods. The various locations on the interstates identified for analysis are those for which the most recent traffic count data was available and are represented by the dots in Figure 1. Changes in travel patterns were estimated using the OKI travel model. The model is a set of computer programs designed to estimate traffic flows and is used to forecast travel. The model estimates travel using information about where people live, work, shop, etc., within and through the region. Also incorporated into the model are a representation of the OKI region s highway and transit network alignments, capacity and operational characteristics. The model simulates average weekday traffic by hour of the day and can distinguish between the various travel modes including drive alone (auto or light truck), rideshare (auto or light truck), transit (bus), single unit (heavy) truck, and multi-unit truck (heavy, semi truck with trailer). For purposes of this study, truck was defined as large single or multi-unit trucks because these are the types most likely to be the longer haul trips that would not have a
4 stop within the beltway and would be impacted by a ban. They do not include pickup or panel trucks. The Figure 2 below indicates the type of vehicles considered trucks. The OKI travel model was applied to two conditions. First was the Baseline Scenario in which the model replicates year 2005 conditions. The current highway network configuration was used and traffic estimates were produced without any changes in where trucks were permitted to operate. The second scenario was the Truck Ban Scenario in which 2005 travel was once again applied but restrictions were placed on the routes available to trucks. Through trucks were not permitted to use I-71/75 between I-275 in Erlanger to the Ohio River during morning and afternoon weekday peak hours. Through trucks were those not having a pick-up or delivery stop within the I-275 beltway; peak hours were defined as 6:00-9:00 AM and 3:00-6:00 PM. The highway network was adjusted to force a diversion of northbound trucks using I-71/75 to use I-275 in Northern Kentucky. Southbound traffic from Ohio had no restrictions other than I-71/75 between I- 275 in Erlanger to the Ohio River. Traffic To understand baseline conditions, OKI gathered recent vehicle classification counts collected in the region in 2005 and 2006 at several key locations. The observed counts were from mechanical vehicle classification counts conducted by OKI, KYTC or ODOT over multiple days. Application of the travel model under the Baseline and Truck Ban scenarios was used to estimate the relative change in traffic pre- and post-ban. The relative change (percent difference) was then applied to the observed count volumes to arrive at the post-ban traffic estimates.
5 Crash Data Individual crash records obtained from KYTC and ODOT for 2005 and 2006 contained exact location information. The crash locations were aggregated to roadway segments primarily defined by the junction of each interstate roadway in the study area. These aggregations were combined with observed traffic count data during morning and afternoon peak periods at the key locations described above to develop an observed peak period severe crash rate. (Severe crashes were those resulting in personal injury or fatality). An attempt was made to derive a truck peak period crash rate but several segments had no severe crashes involving trucks, thus no rate could be calculated. Crash rates are a function of the number of crashes and the vehicle miles of travel (number of vehicles multiplied by the distance traveled). Baseline Scenario Traffic Figure 3 shows the baseline average daily traffic volumes, daily truck volumes and daily percentage of trucks for each location. Daily volumes range from a high of approximately 163,000 vehicles per day on I-75 in northern Kentucky just north of I-275 to a low of 37,000 on I-275 at the westernmost location in Hamilton County.
6 During peak periods, a volume of 49,000 vehicles occurred at a point just south of the Brent Spence Bridge. Approximately 19 percent of these vehicles were heavy trucks. North of the bridge on I-75, peak period volumes exceeded 53,000. The lowest peak period volume was recorded at the westernmost Hamilton County location. Crashes As noted above, crash data was collected from the state departments of transportation and processed to calculate a peak period crash rate. By far, the peak period crash rate involving all vehicles was highest on Ft. Washington Way. The segment experiencing the highest number of severe crashes was I-75 between the Norwood Lateral (SR-562) and I- 275 and the segment of I-71 between the Norwood Lateral (SR-562) and I-275. The number of severe crashes on these segments averaged 68 and 64 respectively. Each of these segments carries high volumes of truck and total traffic. The number of crashes and crash rates are presented in Figure 5. Truck Ban Scenario Traffic Figure 6 shows the estimated daily traffic volumes, peak period truck volumes and daily percentage of trucks for each location with the truck ban in place. The percent difference between travel model runs with and without the ban are applied to the observed count volumes to estimate the change in traffic. Volumes range from a high of approximately
7 158,000 vehicles per day on I-75 in northern Kentucky just north of I-275 to a low of 37,000 on I-275, the westernmost location in the study area. Figure 7 shows the predicted peak period traffic volumes for total vehicles as well as the number and percent of trucks. Peak period all vehicle post-ban volumes range from a high of approximately 54,000 on I-75 between the Norwood Lateral (SR-562) and I-275 to a low of under 13,000 on I-275 at the westernmost location in Hamilton County. The highest post-ban peak period truck volume is predicted to be 5,600 on I-75 in northern Kentucky, just north of I-275.
9 Crashes As noted above, crash data was collected from the state departments of transportation and processed to calculate a peak period crash rate. The number of peak period crashes for each segment with the truck ban in place was estimated by applying the existing crash rates to the predicted volumes. The number of crashes and crash rates are presented in Figure 8. Results The impact of banning trucks without a stop (through trucks) from using I-71/75 within the I-275 beltway were estimated by comparing the peak period travel volumes and crashes in the baseline condition to those with the truck ban in place. Figure 9 presents the predicted change in peak period volumes. Figure 10 presents the predicted change in the number of peak period crashes. As expected, the truck ban caused a diversion of traffic to various routes in the region. Most segments experienced modest changes. The most substantial impact was expected on three portions of interstate highways: I-71/75, I-275 from I-71/75 to I-471 and I-471. The largest reduction in traffic was predicted for segments on I-71/75 within the northern Kentucky portion of the beltway. While the through truck volumes declined by approximately 5,000 per day, this reduction induced traffic to shift from other routes, yielding a net decline of about 3,800 vehicles per day. The through truck traffic was diverted primarily to I-275 and I-471 in northern Kentucky.
10 Because the volumes of diverted traffic were relatively small compared to the overall volume, the impact on severe crashes within the system was minor. The change in the expected severe crashes (personal injury or fatality) on a regional basis was a reduction of two crashes per year. The number of crashes along the three I-75 segments between I-275 and the Brent Spence Bridge in northern Kentucky combined were reduced by three. The number of crashes on I-275 and I-471 in northern Kentucky combined were increased by four. In essence, the crashes were shifted from one segment group to another. Though the crash rate for the I-75 segment group was higher than the I-275/I471 segment group the travel distance along the I-275/I-471 segment group was approximately seven miles longer. The extra travel distance accounts for the slight net increase in crashes for I- 275 and I-471 segments. This extra travel distance has other impacts on the vehicles using the diverted segments in the form of an additional travel time of approximately 5.5 minutes per vehicle. The resulting economic and emissions impacts are tabulated in the table below. For trucks this means additional operating costs in driver time, fuel, and maintenance. It is estimated that the total additional costs to the trucking industry would be $5 million per year. The emissions resulting from the additional vehicle miles of travel are estimated to be 313,000 pounds per year for VOC, NOx, CO and PM2.5. However, these diverted truck emissions are offset by a reduction in emissions by vehicles whose movement was now expedited.
12 Conclusion A ban of through trucks on the northern Kentucky portion of I-71/75 has no substantial benefits. Reduction in severe crashes is expected to be very modest. Operating costs to the trucking industry and additional emissions negatively impact the region. The practical difficulties in the enforcement of a truck ban must also to be considered in the deployment of such a ban.
13 Appendix 1: Daily and Peak Hour Truck Volume Location 1 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 3,748 24,514 3:00pm-6:00pm 5,338 24,530 Total Peak 9,086 49,044 Avg Daily 30, ,824 2 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 703 6,292 3:00pm-6:00pm 851 6,013 Total Peak 1,554 12,305 Avg Daily 4,552 36,532 3 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am ,193 3:00pm-6:00pm ,614 Total Peak 1,775 25,807 Avg Daily 5,094 69,270 4 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,129 16,460 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,294 15,333 Total Peak 2,422 31,792 Avg Daily 6,287 86,768 5 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,527 23,132 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,548 23,857 Total Peak 3,075 46,989 Avg Daily 9, ,480 6,7 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am ,272 3:00pm-6:00pm ,820 Total Peak 1,150 22,092 Avg Daily 2,736 57,052 8 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am ,739 3:00pm-6:00pm ,562 Total Peak 1,802 37,301 Avg Daily Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,047 12,818 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,433 12,391 Total Peak 2,480 25,209 Avg Daily Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 4,639 20,188 3:00pm-6:00pm 7,722 22,088 Total Peak 12,361 42,276 Avg Daily 40, ,918
14 Appendix 1: Daily and Peak Hour Truck Volume (continued) Location 11 Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 2,435 26,902 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,735 26,565 Total Peak 4,170 53,467 Avg Daily 15, , Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 882 9,012 3:00pm-6:00pm 467 8,465 Total Peak 1,349 17,477 Avg Daily 2,834 43, Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,735 24,909 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,705 25,339 Total Peak 3,440 50,249 Avg Daily 11, , Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 2,412 26,884 3:00pm-6:00pm 2,768 26,630 Total Peak 5,181 53,514 Avg Daily 17, , Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am ,361 3:00pm-6:00pm ,220 Total Peak 1,183 29,581 Avg Daily 2,912 75, Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,251 22,385 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,988 24,138 Total Peak 3,239 46,523 Avg Daily 9, , Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 1,155 22,771 3:00pm-6:00pm 1,307 23,674 Total Peak 2,462 46,445 Avg Daily 7, , Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am ,383 3:00pm-6:00pm ,743 Total Peak 1,709 37,126 Avg Daily * Peak Hours Total Truck Total Vehicles 6:00am-9:00am 4,194 22,351 3:00pm-6:00pm 6,530 23,309 Total Peak 10,724 45,660 Avg Daily 35, ,871 * Observed data not available. Data for location 19 is the mean of observed data for locations 1 and 10.
15 Appendix 2: AM and PM Peak All Vehicle and Truck Crashes by Type All Vehicle Crash Counts by Location ( ) AM Peak PM Peak Segment All Injury Fatality All Injury Fatality Location Length (ft.) Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes 1 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Truck Crash Counts by Location ( ) AM Peak PM Peak Segment All Injury Fatality All Injury Fatality Location Length (ft.) Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes 1 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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