Cherry Industry Overview. Ceres 28 July 2017

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Cherry Industry Overview. Ceres 28 July 2017"

Beatrice Wilkerson
5 years ago
Views:

1 Cherry Industry Overview Ceres 28 July 2017

HECTARES Cherry area trend (ha) 275 250 225 200 175 150 176 21 Producers 23 Farm units 185 185 197 209 211 215 42% Growth over 10 years 223 221 230 237 264 125 100 75 50

2 HECTARES Cherry area trend (ha) Producers 23 Farm units % Growth over 10 years DISTRICT HECTARES CERES 113 FREE STATE 90 NORTH WEST 28 HEXVALLEY 19 MPUMALANGA 14 GROENLAND 0,03 TOTAL

3 herry Production Areas NORTH WEST 4 11% FREE STATE 34% MPUMALANGA 5% 51% WESTERN CAPE

4 Cherry Cultivar Distribution BING; 13% OTHER; 27% ROYAL DAWN; 8% GIANT HEIDELFINGER; 2% ROYAL LEE; 7% VAN; 2% ROYAL EDIE; 2% EARLY SWEET; 3% STELLA; 3% ROYAL LYNN; 3% ROYAL HELEN; 3% HEIDELFINGER; 3% RAINIER; 3% NAPOLEON; 6% MINI ROYAL; 6% SWEETHEART; 5% LAPPINS; 4% Based on actual Hortgro Treecensus

5 Orchard Age Distribution CULTIVAR 0-2 YRS 3-5 YRS 6-15 YRS YRS 18+ YEARS BING ROYAL DAWN ROYAL LEE NAPOLEON MINNIE ROYAL SWEETHEART LAPINS RAINIER HEIDELFINGER ROYAL HELEN ROYAL LYNN STELLA EARLY SWEET ROYAL EDIE VAN OTHER TOTAL % OF TOTAL 14% 7% 48% 2% 29% Based on actual Hortgro Treecensus

6 Weekly Sales Eqv. Cartons (5 kg) South African Cherry Sales 2016/ Cherries 2015/ /2017 % DIFF 5kg Eqv. Cartons % JBH 41% Durban 31% Tshwane 20% Cumulative Sales Eqv. Cartons (5 kg) Johannesburg Durban Tshwane Cape Town Pietermaritzburg Bloemfontein Springs Klerksdorp Welkom Port Elizabeth Weekly 2015/16 Cumulative 2016/2017 Cumulative 2015/16 Source: TechnoFresh

7 Kilograms Cherries Passed for Export Per Week 2016/ / /2017 % DIFF % / /2016 Source: PPECB inspections

8 Main South African 2016/2017 CHERRY Export Region Canada USA UK 50% EU 7% Middle East 19% China Far East 17% Africa 2% IOI 5% Source: PPECB Exports

9 2017 Producer Survey Results (Production) 2017 Cherry Survey Participation = 100% of Total Cherry Plantings TOTAL PRODUCTION 2016/2017KG s = KG (6% Discard) 2016 Cherry Survey Participation = 97% of Total Cherry Plantings Local = 61% Export = 24% Processed = 9%

10 Volume of Production Per Province NORTH WEST 4 12% FREE STATE 31% MPUMALANGA 4% 53% WESTERN CAPE

11 Kilograms Export volumes (Kg) / / / /2017 Producers PPECB EXPORTS

12 Kilograms Local volumes (Kg) % % % -47% - Western Cape Free State North West Mpumalanga 2012/ / / / /2017

13 Southern Hemisphere

14 TONS Southern Hemisphere trends % % SA = 0,2% / / / / /2017 ARGENTINA CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

15 SH export market share trends 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 85% SH EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % SOUTH AMERICA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINGDOM % MIDDLE EAST % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 4% 2% 2% FE & Asia USA & CANADA SOUTH AMERICA EU & RUSSIA UNITED KINGDOM 2013/ / / /2017

16 South Africa market share trends 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF UNITED KINGDOM % MIDDLE EAST % FE & ASIA EU & RUSSIA % IOI % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 40% 30% 20% 19% 17% 10% 0% 7% 5% 2% UNITED KINGDOM MIDDLE EAST FE & ASIA EU & RUSSIA IOI AFRICA 2013/ / / /2017

17 Argentina market share trends 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 40% 27% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /17 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINDGOM % MIDDLE EAST % LATIN AMERICA % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 17% 10% 6% 1% FE & ASIA USA & CANADA UNITED EU & RUSSIA Middle East LATIN AMERICA 2013/2014 KINDGOM 2014/ / /2017

18 Chile market share trends 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 87% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % SOUTH AMERICA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINGDOM % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 10% 0% 7% 4% 1% 1% FE & ASIA USA & CANADA SOUTH AMERICA EU & RUSSIA UNITED KINGDOM 2013/ / / /2017

19 Production Cost

20 Assumptions Ideal world 100% of 1 hectare Plant density 4,5 x 1,5m ; trees/ha Land clearing does not include chipping Irrigation system: Makes provision for cost from pump house and includes mainlines, filters, automation and the orchard irrigation material and design Strip Fumigation with Telone in the case of reestablishment R16 000/ha Depreciation: Yr 2 6 calculated based on establishment without NET Production lifespan of orchard = 25 years Exclude amortisation Production: Year 4 = 4 t/ha; Year 6 Full Bearing= 10 t/ha Inflation on income and expenses 10% p/a Pack-Out Conventional 75% (Local and Export) Pack-Out With Net 90% (Local and Export)

21 Establishment: Conventional Establishment: Conventional Yield (ton/ha) Number of trees per ha Plant material % Land clearing & soil mapping % Land preparation & ridging % Irrigation (design & material) % Drainage % Trellising % Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides 152 0% Fungicides 153 0% Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 638 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance 627 0% Electricity % General % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard

22 Establishment: With Net Establishment: With Net Yield (ton/ha) Number of trees per ha Plant material % Land clearing & soil mapping % Land preparation & ridging % Irrigation (design & material) % Drainage % Trellising & Net % Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides 152 0% Fungicides 153 0% Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 638 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance 627 0% Electricity % General % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard 2 3 1

23 Major Cost Drivers Trellising & Net Plant Material Labour Land Preparation & Ridging

FFW to Full Production Full Bearing: Year 6 Rand Yield (ton/ha) 10 Number of trees per ha 1 481 Fertilizer 13 455 6% Herbicides 1 945 1% Pesticides 1 462 1% Fungicides 1 480 1% Rest breaking

24 FFW to Full Production Full Bearing: Year 6 Rand Yield (ton/ha) 10 Number of trees per ha Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides % Fungicides % Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 845 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance % Electricity % General 243 0% Pollination % Transport rental % Packaging % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard 1 3 2

25 Major Cost Drivers Labour 29% Overhead Costs 28% Packaging 23%

26 Rand Break-even Conventional R R R R R R R- R( ) R( ) R( ) R Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) Tons/ha R( ) 0 NFI CUMULATIVE Yield (ton/ha)

27 Rand Break-even With Net R R R R R R R- R( ) R( ) R R Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year R( ) R( ) R( ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) 2 0 NFI CUMULATIVE Yield (ton/ha)

28 Thank you

11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% APPLE AREAS DISTRICT NUMBER OF TREES AREA (HA) CERES 1 626 911 7 452 GROENLAND 9 512 47 6 429 VILLIERSDORP / VYEBOOM 4 765 294 3 841 LANGKLOOF EAST 4 13 99 3 461 LANGKLOOF WEST 1 56 856 875 SOUTHERN CAPE