Apple Market Analysis & Trends PROGNOSFRUIT - CONGRESS 2016 HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI

Transcription

1 Apple Market Analysis & Trends PROGNOSFRUIT - CONGRESS 2016 HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI

2 Development of apple market Analysis for the next season possible? Facts Forecast apples Russian ban continueing? Political situation in Arabic countries? Opening new markets (China)? Apple market - became a political football

3 Less EU apple consumption Germany, Italy, Spain, France Monthly consumption and retail price 2015/ / /14 Ø Monthly EU retail price 1.53 Total -3,5% vs. 2014/15 1, Buying volume S O N D J F M A 2015/ / /14 S O N D J F M A Source: AMI, European panel data

4 Germany - Year by year less consumption Retail Apple sales volume, August to June (%) 1,98 2,27 Pink Lady Kanzi Braeburn Retail price EUR/kg Elstar Others Organic Club varieties Club varieties and organic apples are the winner of 2015/ / / / /16 Source: GfK

5 Organic apple Only a niche product? Forecast EU organic apples, tons Italy Germany Austria 6 22 EU forecast, tons 19 NL/BEL Source: AMI,EBF

6 EU Organic production with top result Market for organic apples like an oasis! Russian ban without effect Increasing Polish apple production without effect Retailer with a great rate Increasing consumption in Europe Attractive price for processing But. Carefully increasing production Source: AMI, GfK, EBF EU organic apple production (1.000 tons) /12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/ Retail price difference organic to IP apples (%)

7 Better quality, more apples for freshmarket? EU 28: Apple harvest for freshmarket, in million tons 7,7 million tons Eastern EU Western Europe (EU-15) 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Price autumn, EUR/100kg South Tyrol Gala 70-75mm ? Source: AMI, WAPA

8 Brexit and Austrian century frost in April UK apple imports in 2014/15 (total tons) Southern Hem tons 150 France Italy Germany Netherl/Belgium Spain Poland USA Application Austrian apples, in tons tons 2015/ /15 Table apples Export Domestic market - Austrian apples Import apples Balkans (incl. Austria) apple imports t, crop 2016 vs = t Source: Eurostat, WAPA

9 Less EU apple exports, change of trend? Ø-Current account balance for EU apples (1.000 tons) 1,515 1,563 1,604 1,780 1,550 1,210 1,216 Export 1,006 1,035 Account balance 1,354 1, Import /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Source: Eurostat

10 EU - Apple export dropped down Monthly EU apple export, in tons / Ø Export price EUR/ton / A S O N D J F M A M J J Source: Eurostat 2013/ / /

11 EU 28 - Apple exports in 2015/16 (August April), comparison to 2014/15 Belarus t ( t) Eastern Europe t ( t) Latin America t ( t) Western / Eastern Africa t ( t) Northern Africa t ( t) Middle East t ( t) Helwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season Asia t ( t) Source: Eurostat

12 Russia Import ban and no money Apple imports August 2015 to April 2016, in tons Belarus vs. 2015: -36% 188,001 China 87, % Serbia 84, % Moldau 38, % Total (millon tons) 2015 Macedonia 30, % 1,021 Azerbaijan Southern Hem. 27, % -35% Jan-May Oct-Dec Source: GTA 2013/ / /

13 Arabic countries imported less apples EU apple exports August toapril, in tons 95 Algeria 106 Libya Egypt Middle East /12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16 France Italy Others Source: Eurostat

14 Poland - Increasing production, what next? Application apple crop (1.000 tons) 2015/16 Crop 4 Mio. tons Consumption Domestic Eastern Countries Asia Processing Export 880 EU Subvention / / /14 EU East Africa EU West Source: AMI, Eurostat

15 Poland What to do with the apples? Application in tons Monthly price processing, EUR/100kg,free industry 0.8 Processing ,5 14/15 15/ S N J M M J Export Consumption 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 Source: AMI, KUPS

16 Processing Pressure in autumn? Price for AJC (EUR/kg) and apple harvest (1.000 tons) for processing EUR/kg 1,85 Source: AMI t 6,3 Mio. tons 1,30 0,85 0, Process. apple (Sep/Oct) f GER prod.org. Ø EUR/100kg POL free indus. EUR/100kg

17 North Am. 1,208 1,100 Europe 1, Russia Lat. America Worldwide Africa/ Mid.East Forecast +6% vs (real +10%) Far East Import markets for apples in the world, trading Southern Hemisphere, till July (1.000 tons) 2016 (red graphic column), 2015 and 2014

18 Global apple market Door opener Gala Oversea apples Global exports until the end of July, tons t Granny Golden Red Del. Pink/Cripps Braeburn Gala Source: AMI '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 Europe America Asia Africa

19 Asia Important apple import markets Apple exports August to May (*until April), in tons 2014/ /16 US 40% NZL 25% CHL 25% FRA 5% CHN 50% US 25% S.Hem.10% FRA 5% CHN 75% US 10% NZL 10% FRA 4% US 40% S.Hem.35% JPN 20% FRA 1% CHN 35% S.Hem.30% FRA 17% US 10% RSA 42% CHN 30% FRA 13% US 7% CHINA HONGKONG THAILAND TAIWAN SINGAPORE MALAYSIA* INDIA* Source: GTA France 2014/15 total tons

20 India Most important Asia import market Apple imports September to April, import destination in % 2014/ /16 Source: GTA Others 6 South Hem USA 47 China 24 ITA 10 Total tons BEL 3 FRA 2 POL Others 1 6 South Hem. 3 USA 25 ITA 8 BEL FRA 2 1 Total tons China 54 Total 2014/15 = tons (Italy tons, Belgium tons)

21 Prospect for 2016/17 EU crop 2016 lower than 2015 and 2014 Better qualities, stretching the season Once again more export in markets outside of Europe? Instable political situation in a lot of countries! Broard import markets: Austria/Balkan Processing under pressure, but outlook better than 2014 The base for a successful season is an increasing consumption in the domestic markets

22 Thanks a lot for your attention. HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de +49 (0)