Hot and Cold Spots of the Future LCV Sector. Philipp Rosengarten Senior Market Analyst, Light Trucks
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1 Hot and Cold Spots of the Future LCV Sector Philipp Rosengarten Senior Market Analyst, Light Trucks
2 Presentation Outline Topic: Hot and Cold Spots of the Future LCV Sector Focus: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) up to 6t GVW Defining the LCV Sector by its segments Global segment perspective of cold and hot spots Regional perspective of the cold and hot spots Does Europe still present an opportunity? How do market leaders address these spots? Summary Questions 2
3 Defining the LCV Sector and Its Segments LCV From 6t GVW Focuses on Global Segment As Follows: CDVs: Car Derived Vans (usually -2T) MVAN: Medium Vans (usually 2-3.5T) HVAN: Heavy Vans (usually 3.5-6T) MIC: Micro Vans (usually -2T) PUP: Pick-up (split into PUP-B, -C & -D) 3
4 Global LCV Sales By Segment (Excluding SUVs and MPVs) PUP-D 26% CDV 1% MVAN 18% PUP-C 17% PUP-B 1% MIC 15% HVAN 13% Key: PUP-D = Large Pickups, PUP-C = Medium Pickups, PUP-B = Small Pick-ups 4
5 Big is Beautiful: Large Pick-ups Lead the Pack (25 Sales) Globally There is a Stronger Preference for Larger LCVs PUP-D MVAN PUP-C MIC HVAN CDV PUP-B 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
6 The Picture Looks Different By Region ( s) 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, North America PUP-D PUP-C HVAN 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, South America PUP-C PUP-B CDV West Europe MVAN CDV PUP-C Middle East & Africa PUP-C CDV MVAN 2, 1, 1, East Europe 2, 1, 1, Asia MVAN CDV PUP-B MIC HVAN PUP-C 6
7 Variation in Global Segment Sales Trends 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Large Pick-ups Dominate but Micro Vans Show Biggest Growth Potential PUP-D MVAN PUP-C MIC HVAN CDV PUP-B
8 ASIA: Microvans Are a Real Growth Opportunity, But Also Heavy Vans and Pick-ups 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Medium Sized Pick-ups Dominate the Scene in Asia MIC HVAN PUP-C MVAN CDV PUP-D PUP-B
9 ASIA Top 3: China, Japan and Thailand 3, China Shows by Far the Biggest Growth in the Past as Well as in the Future 2, 2, 1, 1, CHN JPN THA 9
10 Middle East & Africa: Medium Pick-ups Rule Both Regions Currently the Forecasts for Both Regions Have Upward Potential PUP-C CDV MVAN HVAN PUP-B PUP-D MIC
11 MEA Top 3: South Africa, Iran and Saudi Arabia South Africa Has Further Upward Potential Whereas Iran Has Some Downward Risk ZAF IRN SAU 11
12 South America: Dominated by Medium Pick-ups The South American Market Shows Much Less Growth Potential PUP-C PUP-B CDV MVAN PUP-D HVAN MIC 12
13 South America: Brazil and Argentina Lead the Way Argentina Particularly Has Some Upward Potential After Dramatic Slump in Recent Years BRA ARG VEN 13
14 North America: Big Is Beautiful For Pick-ups 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Large Pick-ups Profit From Being the Typical Life-style Vehicle in the U.S. PUP-D PUP-C HVAN MVAN PUP-B CDV PUP-B
15 North America: United States Rule the Rest 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, The United States Will Drag the Region Down in 26 and Look Lacklustre Afterwards 1, USA CAN MEX 15
16 Western Europe: MVAN and CDV Dominate Clearly 1,4 1,2 1, The CDV Segment Will Be Hit by the Changeover of the 3 Dominating French Models MVAN CDV PUP-C HVAN MIC PUP-B PUP-D
17 Western Europe Top 3: France, Great Britain and Germany FRA DEU GBR ESP ITA 17
18 Eastern Europe: Similar Segment Ranking To the West Lower Volume and Higher Volatility - Trend Currently Positive MVAN CDV PUP-B PUP-C HVAN MIC PUP-D
19 Eastern Europe Top 3: Turkey, Russia and Poland Turkey Has More Potential, but Russia is More Stable TUR RUS POL 19
20 The Hottest Spot Is Asia, Especially China 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, SA MEA EE WE NA AS 2
21 Does Europe Still Present an Opportunity? Home Base: West has the corporate culture which bred success East is close to home and has a European mind-set Synergies: West develops and lead-produces East helps to keep costs down Stable Growth: West has the stability and size of the market East has the growth potential, but also high risks 21
22 The Top 12 Global LCV Group Sales in 25 (Excluding SUVs and MPVs) The Americans Are Still at the Top... But the Chinese Are Climbing Up the Ranks: 9, 12 and 13 GM FORD TOYOTA DC NISSAN PSA FIAT GROUP RENAULT CHANGAN ISUZU VW GROUP SAIC 1, 1, 2, in thousand 22
23 How Do Market Leaders Address These Hot Spots? Home Base Competitive Advantage: Using the strength in the home market for expansion Localized Production: Using the low cost production bases closer to customers Partnering and Co-operation: Sharing Plants (internally and externally) Sharing Engines (internally and externally) Sharing Platforms (internally and externally) Sharing Models (badge engineering and more) Manufacturing and Distribution Synergies: Using cost advantage from economies of scale Using the same distribution network Using and leveraging the innovations from other divisions 23
24 Mercedes-Benz: BlueTec (AdBlue SCR System) 24
25 PSA (Peugeot & Citroen): Diesel Hybrid 25
26 Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles: Double Clutch 26
27 Summary West European OEMs should look at closing product gaps as there is potential to grow in different regions as well as in different segments Region The grass is always greener next door: Asia, especially China, is the most important growth area, but has to be tackled with the appropriate products Middle East/Africa and South America more difficult to make profitable due to lower volume potential North America offers limited growth but is still the biggest market Western Europe will profit from its East European neighbours Eastern Europe is easiest to tackle as suitable products are already available 27
28 Summary Segment West European OEMs should think again: Micro Vans (MIC) might be worthwhile to take another look at, especially for West European OEMs looking at Asia Heavy Vans (HVANs) will be growing, still with many coming from the Light Duty Truck range ( T GVW) Medium Pick-ups (PUP-C) is also an interesting growth opportunity mostly outside Europe, Thailand is important Large Pick-ups (PUP-D) is the segment to enter in the U.S. As market leaders show, it pays off to leverage: Home base competitive advantage Localised production Partnering and co-operation Manufacturing and distribution synergies 28
29 Thank You Philipp Rosengarten Senior Market Analyst, Light Trucks
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