, 2012), (2010) %, 4%; 16% , 2007).
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42 Л Baier S L & Bergstrand J H 2009) Bonus vetus OLS A simple method for approximating international tradecost effects using the gravity equation Journal of International Economics 771) 7785 Baldwin R 1993) A domino theory of regionalism No w4465) National Bureau of Economic Research Baldwin R E 1994) Towards an integrated Europe Vol 25 No 234) London Centre for Economic Policy Research Baldwin R E 1997) The causes of regionalism The World Economy207) Baldwin R E 2006) Multilateralising regionalism spaghetti bowls as building blocs on the path to global free trade The World Economy 2911) Barro R J 2001) Human capital and growth The American Economic Review 912) 1217 Becker G S 1962) Investment in human capital A theoretical analysis The journal of political economy 705)
43 Beckmann E & Fidrmuc J 2012) Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters? European Journal of Comparative Economics 91) 3149 Brülhart M 2009) An Account of Global Intra industry Trade The World Economy 323) Djankov S Freund C & Pham C S 2010) Trading on time The Review of Economics and Statistics 921) Eurasian Development Bank 2012) UKRAINE AND THE CUSTOMS UNION Comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic effects of various forms of deep economic integration of Ukraine and the member states of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space Centre for Integration Studies Saint Petersburg Gros D & Gonciarz A 1996) A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe European journal of political economy 124) Grubel H G Lloyd P J & Lloyd P J 1975) Intraindustry trade the theory and measurement of international trade in differentiated productsvol 12) London Macmillan Hamilton C B Winters L A Hughes G & Smith A 1992) Opening up international trade with Eastern Europe Economic Policy Handley K & Limão N 2012) Trade and investment under policy uncertainty theory and firm evidence No w17790) National Bureau of Economic Research Hausman J A & Taylor W E 1981) Panel data and unobservable individual effects Econometrica Journal of the Econometric Society Hausmann R Hwang J & Rodrik D 2007) What you export mattersjournal of Economic Growth 121) 125 Havrylyshyn O Pritchett L & Mundial B 1991) European trade patterns after the transition Country Economics Department World Bank Helpman E Melitz M & Rubinstein Y 2008) Estimating trade flows Trading partners and trading volumes The Quarterly Journal of Economics1232)
44 Institute for economic research and policy consulting 2010) Costs and Benefits of FTA between Ukraine and the European Union IER Kyiv IЧstТtutО ПШr ОМШЧШЦТМ rоsокrмс КЧН ЩШХТМв МШЧsuХtТЧР 2011) UФrКТЧО s trкно ЩШХТМв МСШТМО pros and cons of different regional integration options IER Kyiv Lefilleur J & Maurel M 2010) Interand intraindustry linkages as a determinant of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe Economic systems343) McPherson M Q & Trumbull W N 2008) Rescuing observed fixed effects Using the HausmanTaylor method for outofsample trade projections The International Trade Journal 223) Melitz M J 2003) The impact of trade on intra industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity Econometrica 716) Mitra P 2008) Innovation inclusion and integration from transition to convergence in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union World Bank Publications Pelzman J 1977) Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance American Economic Review674) Serlenga L & Shin Y 2007) Gravity models of intra EU trade application of the CCEP HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time specific factors Journal of applied econometrics 222) Shepotylo O 2010) A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership The Case of Ukraine Journal of Economic Integration 254) Shepotylo O 2012) Export diversification across countries and products Do Eastern European EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States CIS) countries diversify enough? The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development aheadofprint) 134 Shepotylo O & Tarr D 2012) Impact of WTO accession and the customs union on the bound and applied tariff rates of the Russian federation World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6161) 44
45 Wang Z K & Winters L A 1992) The trading potential of Eastern Europe Journal of Economic Integration 72) Д j l k i j U j cklj dl k 1 l B j k k K k k j Yj j 1 j j 1 Pk pkl ) dl l Bl k 1 45 j
46 i 8 j T ij wi a a) k k 1) Pk j 1 ij k j ) Y j Fkij j ) о л д о тко у одел о к о пе оду е д е ок о о л у к 8 46 j ) к п т ло п от о до л д у ду т ле е о л оо
47 a ) 0 k ij k ij k Tkij wi akij j 1) Pk 1 Y j Fkij i k j k Nki Gk akij ) j i Tkij wi X N Gk a ) E p a)c a) a) 0 N Y V j 1) Pk ij k i k ij k a amin ij k ij k ij k ij k X 0 ij k 1 i k k V ij k j a a kij 1 ij k dgk a) a min k i Tkij j ij i i j ij Pk 1) X k sk Y Y V k 1 C Tkij j Y jvkij j 1 Pk 1 T ij wi akij a ) 0 k k 1) Pk j 1 ij k ij k Y j Fkij 2)? k 47 a tij
48 tij T ij wti amin j 1) Pt Ft ij 1 Yt j 3) tij Vt ij Ga) tij 1 tij 2008) i j Tt ij ) 1 dist ij ) exp Rtij utij ) i R j utij R N 0 u2 ) Ft ij exp i j kij tij ) tij N 0 2 ) 3) 48
49 ktij 0 1 ) ln wti ln dist ij Rtij d t j i j ij tij 4) d t j ln Yt j j 1 ) ln Pt j j t tij utij tij ~ N 0 u2 2 ) u2 2 1 M ln dist ij Rtij d t j i j ij 5) i j ˆ tij 5) т оо е улт ту то о д ок 9) о д ле оп о о у ) 2008) О д п о еду п е ул т дек ко т о о у о л т у ду о еко о у пол т ку о п о тку п т о о екто о д о т дод т о то 9 лте 9 tij ProbXijt 0 tij ) 0 1 ) ln wti t од т до од ко о о л ул т т тл т
50 1) Tt ij 6) C T ij 1 ln MRTt ln t j Y jvt ij j 1 Pt j 2003) 2009) 2008) E ln Vt ij utij X tij 0) b0 ˆtij bm ˆ tij )m tij 3 m 1 ˆ tij ˆtij 1 ˆ tij ) ) 3 Ga) 6) 1981) A1 ln ijths ln j) 1) ln ) i j i) 1 143** ** 061** 093** ** * 056** 036** 093**
51 ln ijths ln j) 1) ln ) i j i) 3 145** ** 115** 024** 4 136** ** 5 163** ** 199** 023** ** 043** ** 6 119** ** 090** ** * 068** 081** ** 9 181** 121** ** 085** 068** ** 107** ** * ** 171** 021** ** * 089** ** 184** ** * 083** 118** 025** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 156** ** ** ** 038** 032** ** 087* ** ** 073** ** 105* * 038** 058** 069** ** * 070** 089** ** ** 069** 024** ** ** 086** ** ** ** 069** ** ** 060* ** 175** ** ** 073** 052** 046** 050** ** ** ** 141** ** ** ** 123** 026** ** ** ** 069** 031** ** ** ** 135** 020** ** ** ** 037** 232** ** ** ** 073** ** ** ** 167** ** ** ** 254** ** ** ** 058** 020* ** 078* 050** * 059** 186** ** 088* 051** ** 045** 146** ** ** ** 163** ** ** 131** ** ** 057** ** 068** 018* ** ** * 062** 148** 022** ** ** 031* ** 172** 024** ** 165** 042** 068** ** 079** ** ** ** 072** 129** 035** ** 100* * 070** 039* 038** ** ** 043** 020* 076** 129** 027** ** ** ** * 138* 067** 099** 163** ** **
52 ln ijths ln j) 1) ln ) i j i) ** ** ** 125** ** ** ** 040** ** 092* 053* * 066** 100** ** ** 077** ** ** ** ** ** 115** ** ** 100** 046** 077** 173** ** ** ** 076** ** ** ** 105** 026** ** ** 024* 036** 040** ** 107* ** ** 064** ** ** ** 215** ** 111** ** 142** ** ** ** 026* ** ** 033* ** 116** 021** ** ** ** 070** 013* ** ** ** 057** 017* ** * * 058** 110** 022* ** ** 171** 051** ** ** 051** 118** ** ** ** 171** 019* ** ** ** 143** ** ** ** 072** ** ** * 036** 121** ** ** ** 056** 184** 017* ** 094* 071** 068** ** 170** 035** ** 127** 045** 036* ** 156** ** * ** 101** ** ** ** 095** ** * 042** 059** 022* ** 115* ** 121** ** * 059** 080* ** ** 077** ** 118** ** ** * 057** 088** 030** ** ** 039* ** 149** 015* ** 101* 046** 024* ** 105** 022** ** 105* 045** ** 085** 023** ** ** ** 101** ** ** ** 020* 015* ** ** * 031** 245** ** ** 297** ** 121** 073** ** 099** ** ** 060** ** ** ** 038* ** ** 067** ** 105** 014* 52
53 ln ijths ln j) 1) ln ) i j i) ** ** ** ** ** ** * 040** 176** 019* ** 102** ** 041** 032** 048** 0030 * p<005 ** p<001 A2 HS ln i) ln j) i j i ln ) ln i) u e ** ** ** 097** ** ** * * * * ** ** * ** ** * ** ** ** * ** 060** ** ** ** 039* ** ** ** 066** ** 121* ** ** ** ** 085** 074** 081** ** 050** * 037** * 080** * 032** ** * * ** ** 060** ** ** ** ** 092** ** ** ** ** 036* * ** 035** * ** ** ** ** 036** ** * 047**
54 HS ln i) ln j) i j i ln ) ln i) u e ** ** ** ** ** * * * * ** 034** 103** * * 125** * ** * ** ** * * * ** ** ** 082** ** ** * ** 054* ** * ** ** ** * 271** 181* ** ** ** 172** * ** 047** ** ** ** 198** * 114* * * ** 050* 200** ** ** * 084** ** ** ** 078** 145** 167** ** ** ** * * ** ** 042* ** 054* ** * 198* ** 053** ** * ** ** 091** 074** * * * ** 064** ** 161** ** * * ** * *
55 HS ln i) ln j) i j i ln ) ln i) u e ** ** 028** ** ** 079* ** 014* 080** 029** 044** 118** 075** 098** ** ** 119** 066** 073** * 064** * * ** ** * * ** 137** ** * * * * 043** ** ** 122** * ** ** * * ** ** * p<005 ** p<001 A3 ln ijths 1) ln ln i) j) ij) 047** 014** 031** 039** 1 180** 015** 2 174** 055** 046** ** 3 171** 032** 0072** ** 4 173** 060** 041** 030** 5 164** 0064* 027** 6 200** 011** 7 192** ** 9 i j 014** 017** 030** 013** ** 0092** ** 035** 030** 0058* ** 030** ** ** 038** 020** 0060* 024** 028** 022** 040** 0081* * 012** 016** 026** 043** 011** ** 012** 023** ** 028** 031** 0088** ** 035** 041** ** 034** ** 014** 039** 028** ** ** ** ** 035** 0094** ** 011** 015** 035** 011** 027** * ** 017** 023** 044** 022** 031** 0090* ** ** ** 037** ** 047** 014** 011* 014** 031** 040** ** 014** 014** ** 041** ** 013** 030** 019** 021** 035** 013** ** 013** 029** 014** 0089** 038** 014** ** ** 014** 024** 034** 0068* ** 015** 021** 025** 021** 042** 025** ** 020** 027** 031** 019** 027** 040** 0062* ** ** ** 041** 014** 011** 55
56 ln ijths 1) ln ln i) j) ij) i j ** 0073** 037** 011* ** 014** 012** ** 025** 022** 0099* 015** 045** 021** ** ** ** 030** ** ** 022** 026** 018** 015** 050** 059** ** ** 014** 021** 034** 046** 0096** ** ** 015** 025** 034** 040** 010** ** 036** 024** ** 012** 0092** ** 0077** 029** 016** 022** 031** 053** 011** ** 0090* 022** 011* 026** 041** 032** ** 011** 029** 013** 0099** 039** 011** 0092** ** 0086* 032** 013** 023** 044** 027** ** ** 016** 012** 038** 037** ** ** 022** 017** 039** 018** ** ** 027** 021** 030** 037** 0070* ** ** ** 038** 034** ** ** 017** 017** 046** 035** ** ** ** 039** 026** ** 0090** 023** ** 039** 026** 020** ** 015** 030** 018** 035** 045** 031** ** ** ** 041** ** ** ** ** 046** 019** ** 0094** 044** ** 035** 029** 0073* ** ** 040** 036** 042** ** ** 017** 013** 033** 012** 014** ** 011* 025** 013** 016** 047** 060** ** 023** 038** 014** 023** 045** 030** ** ** 029** 018** 035** ** ** 015** 017** 022** ** 033** 0072* ** 011** 031** ** 038** 024** ** ** 017** 017** 037** 019** 0059* ** ** 025** 020** 037** ** ** ** 017** 024** 044** 040** ** 012** 029** 023** 022** 043** 041** ** ** 012* 030** 041** 0089** 0066* ** ** 012* 017** 041** 030** ** 016** 026** 059** 020** 040** 028** 0066* ** 011** 032** 050** 012** 036** 028** 0089** ** ** ** 041** 023** 0075** ** 020** 018** 011* 025** 044** 033** 011** ** ** 019** 013** 045** 045** ** ** ** 046** 025** ** 028** 014** ** 039** 037** ** ** 025** 023** 045** 012** ** 022** 023** ** 031** 045** 0077* ** 016** 026** ** 043** 042**
57 ln ijths 1) ln ln i) j) ij) i j ** 029** 023** 022** 029** 045** 068** ** ** ** 043** 028** ** ** 015** 027** 027** 037** 0063* ** 013** 021** 017** 022** 039** 024** ** 019** 032** 012** 025** 046** 045** ** 012** 023** ** 036** 029** 0053* ** ** ** 030** 018** ** ** 023** 025** 047** 032** ** ** ** 042** 038** ** 013** 010** 017** 012** 042** 026** 012** ** 0082** 034** 029** 011* 033** 020** 014** ** ** 025** 020** 030** 027** ** ** 019** 024** 037** 048** ** ** 038** 027** 044** 065** ** 034** 055** 018** 019** 046** 039** ** 027** 061** 020** 017** 042** 061** ** 016** 032** ** 044** 033** ** 013** 047** 012** 025** 049** 051** ** 031** 020** 043** 033** 025** 035** 010** ** 014** 034** 011* 034** 031** 021** ** ** 023** 025** 037** 056** ** ** 031** 030** 035** 030** 0074** ** 020** 032** 017** 048** 033** 026** 0066* ** ** ** 051** 056** 0066** ** ** 048** 028** 039** 064** ** 0082* 029** 032** 024** 042** 041** 0086** ** 057** 018** ** 025** 036** 0060* e * p<005 ** p<001 A4 HS ln i) 1 032** 2 3 ln j) ln i) i lndist) 017** 052** 095** 031** i j u 011* ** ** ** 057** ** * 034** 026** * ** ** 030** ** 070** 053** * ** 023** 028** 022** ** 042** ** 029** 039** 077** ** 035** 017** ** 040** 061** 024** ** 052** 034** 012** 040** 070** 048** 019** ** 017** 060** ** 028** 033** 0051** ** 084** ** 0076* 032** ** 038** 018* 023** ** 053** 015** ** 059** 028**
58 HS ln i) ln j) i j 0055 i 013 lndist) ** 067** ** 043** 042** * ** 011** 029** ** 075** ** 025** ** ** 013** ** 017** ** 032** 013* ** 025** ** ** 031** 013* ** 026** ** ** u e 063* ** 022** ** 021** ** 060** ** 019** 052** * 037** 039** ** 043** 034** 014** ** ** 033** 064** 0020* ** 028** ** 024** 032** 0086** ** 041** 012** 037** 035** 034** 018** ** 023** ** 072** 0037* ** 042** * 011* ** 0037* ** ** ** 036** ** 084** 011** ** 049** 035** * 045** 043** 014** ** 062** 023** ** 041** 0038* ** 032** 046** 0059* ** ** 017* ** 023** 0087** ** 036** ** 021** 024** 060** ** 039** ** ** ** 034** ** ** 0044** ** 036** 018** 013** 0093** 032** 015** 041** ** 031** ** 031** 035** ** ** 0093** ** 038** ** 022** 056** ** 045** ** 011** 025** 093** 0034* ** 041** * 028** 019** 065** 015** ** 037** ** * 035** ** 041** 049** 015** 025** ** ** 039** 019** 058** 016* 023** 016** ** ** ** 085** ** ** ** 027** 053** ** 032** 028** 0062** ** 015** 069** ** 020** 026** 014** ** 041** * 023** 039** 086** 0090** ** 032** 0098* 018** 016** 033** 080** ** 032** ** * ** 038** 028** ** 025** 062** ** 056** 021** 017** ** 084** 013** ** 026** * 029** 045** 040** 013** ** 046** 013* ** ** 017** ** 036** 015* ** ** 016** ** 035** * 012* 054** ** 068** ** 089** 012** ln i) 16755
59 HS ln i) ln j) ** 042** ** ** ** 046** * 016** 063** ** 036** * ** ** 060** 017** 0075* ** 102** ** 052** 048** ** 012* ** 029** ** 023** ** 034** 050** ** ** 028** 029** ** ** 030** 023** ** 032** ** 049** 015** ** 036** 039** ** 046** 038** ** 058** ** 045** ** 74 i j i lndist) ln i) u e * ** ** 0030** ** 070** ** 0063** ** 024** 052** ** 024** 033** 011** * 072** ** 023** 070** 0069** ** 015** 019** 069** 0044* ** ** 046** 028** 014** ** 055** 035** 044** 023** ** 011* 011** 021** 032** 087** 0060** ** 051** ** ** 055** ** 040** 033** * ** 044** 015** ** 013** 080** ** 053** * ** 045** 0056* ** 026** 058** ** 054** ** ** 015* ** 036* ** 020** ** 040** 020** 011** 0090* 011** 052** 0030** ** 042** 010* 013** 013** 086** 0040** ** 056** ** 026** 025** 065** 0047** ** 065** ** 012** 028** 101** ** 037** 062** ** ** 059** 014** 011** 051** 040** 116** 016** ** 029** ** 032** ** 020** ** ** ** 051** ** 062** ** 035** 043** 012** 018** 017** 025** 024** ** 037** ** 046** 030** 0086** ** 049** ** 017** 028** 100** 0065** ** 050** 055** 019** 042** 012** 072** 0094** ** 042** * 0094* 0098* 079** ** 023** 020* 026** 022** 018*
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