Implications of Biofuel Support Policies in Europe - A Quantitative Analysis in an Open Economy
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1 16 th ICABR / 126 th EAAE Ravello June 2012 Implications of Biofuel Support Policies in Europe - A Quantitative Analysis in an Open Economy María Blanco, Shailesh Shrestha, Marcel Adenaeuer and Arno Becker Contact: maria.blanco@upm.es
2 Outline EU biofuels support Biofuels modelling with CAPRI Scenario setting Main results Concluding remarks 2
3 EU biofuels support
4 Biofuels production and use have significantly grown during the last decade in the EU Growth in biofuels production and use mainly driven by public support EU Renewable Energy Directive Target of 10% renewable energy in total transport energy consumption by 2020 Implementation mechanisms at the MS level: quota obligations and tax exemptions for biofuels Blanco et al
5 MS level Total EU EU Biodiesel Production (1000 t) Germany Spain France Italy Austria Poland Other ME EU27 Source: CAPRI database (several raw sources)
6 MS level Total EU EU Ethanol Production (1000 t) Germany Spain France Italy United Kingdom Poland Other EM EU027 Source: CAPRI database (several raw sources)
7 The development of the biofuel sector raises a number of concerns Contribution to reduce dependence from fossil fuels? Contribution to reduce GHG emissions? Contribution to maintain agricultural income? Food-fuel linkages, in particular competition for land and impacts on food prices Blanco et al
8 Research questions What are the impacts of the current EU biofuels strategy on global biofuel and agricultural markets? How these impacts will change if the EU eliminate tariffs for biofuels imports? How these impacts will change in case of a faster development path of second generation technologies? 8
9 Biofuels modelling with CAPRI
10 What is CAPRI? Spatial partial equilibrium model of agricultural commodity markets at the global level Two interlinked modules: Global Spatial Multi-Commodity Model 77 countries in 40 trade blocks, 60 primary and secondary products, agricultural and trade policy measures Regional Programming Models 280 regions for EU27+Norway +Western Balkans, detailed representation of farming decisions and CAP measures Blanco et al
11 Biofuels module Global representation of biofuels markets (ethanol and biodiesel) Endogenous supply, demand and trade flows for biofuels For domestic production, two technological pathways (first generation and second generation biofuels) Blanco et al
12 Ethanol markets Blanco et al
13 Biodiesel markets Blanco et al
14 Scenario setting
15 Scenario setting Baseline 2020 Counterfactual scenarios Agricultural market developments (in line with DG- AGRI baseline 2010) 1. No EU biofuel support (no mandates and no tax exemptions) EU biofuels support (mandates and tax exemptions) 2. No EU biofuel tariffs (no EU tariffs for biofuel imports) Status quo for agricultural and trade policies 3. High second generation (faster development path for 2 nd gen. technologies) Blanco et al
16 Scenario results
17 Baseline results compared to last year data (EU27) Ethanol Biodiesel Prod. 1st gen. Prod. 2nd gen. Net imports Prod. 1st gen. Prod. 2nd gen. Net imports
18 Baseline results (MS level) Ethanol (1000 t) Biodiesel (1000 t) Supply Net Trade Demand Supply Net Trade Demand European Union European Union European Union Germany France Spain Italy United Kingdom Czech Republic Poland Romania
19 Biofuels market balances in the EU Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Production of which 1st gen of which 2nd gen Consumption of which fuel use Baseline (Euros/ toe) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Consumer price
20 Biofuels market balances in the EU Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Imports Exports Baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Energy share (%)
21 First generation biofuels by feedstock (EU27) Ethanol from Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Wheat Barley Rye Oats Maize Other Cereals Sugar Biodiesel from Rape oil Sunflower oil Soy oil Palm oil
22 Effects on EU crop production Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Soft wheat Durum wheat Barley Rye and meslin Oats Grain maize Sugar beet Rape seed Sunflower seed Soya seed
23 Effects on EU crop producer price Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Soft wheat Durum wheat Barley Rye and meslin Oats Grain maize Sugar beet Rape seed Sunflower seed Soya seed
24 Effects on EU cropland allocation Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Soft wheat Durum wheat Barley Rye and meslin Oats Grain maize Sugar beet Rape seed Sunflower seed Soya seed
25 Regional effects on agricultural income (%change) No EU biofuel support No EU biofuel tariffs High 2 nd generation
26 Demand balance (maize) Percentage change compared to baseline Baseline (1000 t) No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Total Demand Human Consumption Feed Processing Biofuels processing Other uses
27 Biofuels trade Percentage change compared to baseline Baseline (1000 t) No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd generation Ethanol Ukraine USA Brazil Asian Tigers Asian South East Biodiesel USA Argentina Malaysia and Indonesia Asian South East Blanco et al
28 Global biofuels production Percentage change compared to baseline Baseline (1000 t) No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel EU Non-EU Russia Ukraine USA Canada Brazil Argentina India China Malaysia and Ind Asian Tigers Asian South East World
29 Concluding remarks Biofuels production and use will remain mainly driven by public support Strong links of biofuels to agricultural markets Development of second generation technologies would ease food-fuel links 29
30 Thanks for your attention!
31 EU biofuels support 2020 Quota obligation BIOD BIOE BL DK DE AT NL FR PT ES EL IT IR FI SE UK CZ EE HU LT LV PL SI SK CY MT BG RO
32 Conversion rates tonnes/1000 l litres/tonne toe/tonne Diesel Gasoline Biodiesel Ethanol
33 Fuel consumption Baseline (1000 t) Percentage change compared to baseline No biofuel support No biofuel tariffs High 2nd gen. Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Use in the transport sector (1000 t) Energy share in total fuel use (%) Consumer price (Euro/ton) Consumer taxes (Euro/Ton)
34 Trade blocks in CAPRI Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea) Asian South East (Vietnam, Thailand, Brunei) Blanco et al. 2012
35 Global biofuel production and recent trends Blanco et al
36 Blanco et al Previsiones de futuro
37 Increase in cereals production driven by biofuels feedstock demand Blanco et al Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) 37
38 Crop prices will stay high Blanco et al Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) 38
39 Blanco et al Production and consumption of biofuels will double in the EU in the next 10 years Total biofuels balance sheet in the European Union, (billion litres) Usable production of which Ethanol of which 2nd gen of which Biodiesel of which 2nd gen Consumption of which Ethanol non fuel use of ethanol of which Biodiesel Net trade of which Ethanol of which Biodiesel Biofuels energy share (% RED counting) st generation nd generation Ethanol Biodiesel Diesel consumption (billion litres) Gasoline consumption (billion litres) Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) 39
40 Important role of biofuels imports Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) Blanco et al
41 Ethanol: increasing feedstock demand Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) Blanco et al
42 Biodiesel: dependence on imports Fuente: Comisión Europea (2011) Blanco et al
43 US: uso creciente de DDGS en alimentación animal Fuente: Taheripour et al Blanco et al
44 UE: uso creciente de tortas de oleaginosas en alimentación animal Fuente: Taheripour et al Blanco et al
45 UE: disminución del precio relativo de la torta de colza respecto a otras materias primas Fuente: Taheripour et al Blanco et al
46 Blanco et al Tariffs
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