Overview of the world nickel market
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1 Overview of the world nickel market Ricardo Ferreira Director of Market Research and Statistics International Nickel Study Group Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum 2018 China P. R., Shanghai, 29 May 2018
2 International Nickel Study Group Autonomous International Governmental Organization Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with International Lead & Zinc Study Group and International Copper Study Group Enhance market transparency in the world nickel market Forum for discussions on nickel matters 2
3 INSG Member Countries Australia Brazil Cuba European Union Finland France Germany Greece Italy Japan Norway Portugal Russian Sweden United Federation Kingdom 3
4 INSG Publications 4
5 The nickel market was in deficit in 2017 and is expected to remain in deficit in 2018 (f) forecast October
6 Prices have been increasing and stocks declining LME nickel price was 12,260 US$/t at the end of 2017, representing a 22.5% increase. Prices averaged almost 14,000 US$/t in April 2018, supported by firm usage (consumption) growth prospects. Combined LME and SHFE end-month stocks have been declining for almost 2 years. From 500kt, stocks were just below 350kt at the end of April
7 World nickel mine production has followed the developments in Indonesia and in the Philippines in 1000 tonnes (f) forecast April 2018 World nickel mine production decreased from 2013 to 2016, but increases in 2017 (+7.5%) and is expected to increase 2018 (+6.7%). In 2013, Indonesia and the Philippines produced 44%, but Indonesian production collapsed because of the export ban on unprocessed material. Indonesia increased mine production in 2017 and should continue to increase in The Philippines is revising their mining policy. 7
8 China P. R. has become the top primary nickel producer, but some new production will come from Indonesia in 1000 tonnes (f) forecast April 2018 World primary nickel production increased since In 2017 increased +4.4% and in 2018 is expected further +7.3%. Chinese production and now Chinese projects in Indonesia have been driving the market. The World ex-china has had very little growth for more than a decade. 8
9 NPI Production in China and Indonesia will increase in 1000 tonnes Indonesia: new projects are ramping up China: NPI output has not decreased as anticipated and may increase to ~500kt Sources: INSG, Antaike, et al. Possible less feed from the Philippines but more from Indonesia (so far, export quotas of 32 million tons have been approved + more requests) 9
10 The nickel industry has been adjusting over the last few years Regions Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Countries (companies) Botswana (BCL closed); Zimbabwe (ASA/Bindura closed/refurbishment; RioZim/Empress closed/reopen with partner?); several projects on hold Canada (Vale mines closed), Brazil (Votorantim closed; but Horizonte Araguaia new project), Venezuela (Loma closed/reopen?), Dominican Rep. (Falcondo closed/sold/reopened), Cuba (production cuts) Vietnam (AMR Ban Phuc closed), India (import tax reductions), Indonesia, Japan (Sumitono batteries), Philippines, China P. R. Finland (Talvivaara/Terrafame restructure), France (Eramet feed from Boliden), Russian Fed. (Norilsk restructure; Ufaleynickel closed), Spain (mine closed), FYRO Macedonia (FeNi closed/sold/reopen?) Australia (QNI Yabulu closed; several junior mines closed; BHP sulphate), New Caledonia (export permits; VNC sell?), Solomon Is. (Axiom new project) and more 10
11 China P. R. has been the engine of world primary nickel usage growth in 1000 tonnes (f) forecast October 2017 World nickel usage increased since In 2017 increased +7.8% and in 2018 is expected to increase +7% supported by the SS production and also with some additional demand from the battery sector. The World ex-china had virtually no growth for a long period of time. The stainless steel sector is the most important first-use market for nickel (~70%), but batteries have the potential to make a structural change in the nickel industry in the coming years. 11
12 Stainless and Alloys represent ~85% of the world nickel first-use Stainless Steel ~70% Other ~5% Nickel Alloys ~15% Source: ISSF, INSG World SS production is expanding since In 2017, grew +5.8% and is expected to continue to grow at around 5% in Strong growth of 300-series, especially in China. Indonesia became a producer and other Asian producers are already feeling more competition. US trade tariffs may have an impact on SS production and trade. 12
13 Electric vehicles sales are accelerating worldwide EV world sales EV world sales Top 20 in 2017 Source: EV Sales Electric vehicles (EV s) sales have increased 72% in 2015, 41% in 2016 and 57% in More than 300,000 EV s sold in the world in 2018Q1 (+66.6%) Almost 200,000 EV s sold in China from Jan to Apr 2018 (more than doubled). 13
14 Decreasing ore grades Profitability prices vs costs Challenges and opportunities Batteries new market, transitional? for the nickel industry Dependence on other raw materials (chromium, cobalt) Substitution scrap, non-nickel SS, other metals or plastics Political decisions (e.g. export ban and quotas in Indonesia, mining policy in the Philippines) Trade restrictions (e.g. USA) Environmental issues Technological, transportation, energy, human resources, etc. 14
15 International Nickel Study Group Next INSG Meetings Location: Lisbon, Portugal 1-3 October
16 INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP Many thanks for your kind attention! Ricardo Ferreira Director of Market Research and Statistics Rua Almirante Barroso, 38-5 th Lisbon Portugal phone: (351) fax: (351)
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